State of the AFC East

[BigSoxFan]

For sure. But it’s still the NFL, so no one should be shocked if we stole a couple of those, while also blowing a couple of winnable games against mediocre teams.

My hunch is that we’ll surprise someone, drop an “easy” one, and finish in the 7-8 win range.

I actually would be shocked if we stole a couple of those. This team doesn’t beat good teams in a post-Brady world unless there are some mitigating factors like that Buffalo game weather, Tua being out, etc.

Hard to get excited about the Pats until they win one of these. They always seem to play well enough to lose respectfully.

 

[j-man]

For sure. But it’s still the NFL, so no one should be shocked if we stole a couple of those, while also blowing a couple of winnable games against mediocre teams.

My hunch is that we’ll surprise someone, drop an “easy” one, and finish in the 7-8 win range.

upset win Dal or KC
upset Loss NYG or Den only because its chrismas eve and NE not a lot of speed on off

 

[8slim]

I actually would be shocked if we stole a couple of those. This team doesn’t beat good teams in a post-Brady world unless there are some mitigating factors like that Buffalo game weather, Tua being out, etc.

Hard to get excited about the Pats until they win one of these. They always seem to play well enough to lose respectfully.

That’s fair. I’m an optimistic so I’m believing they can do it, without evidence.

 

[Reverend]

The transitive property isn’t a thing. Josh Allen imploded and the Jets won despite their offensive incompetence.

The Jets D got thumped pretty good last week by the Cowboys (who look lousy against the Cardinals as we speak).

It’s a long, weird season every year.

I hope the Pats win 10 and we make the wild card. I just don’t see it right now.

You spend so much time making comparisons like this. You understand this is not the way the NFL works? Most of the teams are bunched up in the middle of the league, and most of the 2nd tier teams play and lose close games to the top tier teams week after week. There aren’t many blowouts. Losing close games to Philly and the Dolphins (both at home) isn’t really all that impressive.

Through three weeks the Pats have done nothing to show me that they are better than last year. Their D looks awesome, but even the best defenses can’t consistency shut down the best offenses. And the Pats offense stinks. Maybe they’ll improve, I hope they will, but through three games the Pats look exactly like who we thought they were. A team with a very good, maybe even great defense and a very limited, mistake prone offensive unit. That’s pretty much all we know right now.

I’ve looked hard but for the life of me can’t find a link, but years ago when the Pats owned Indy, Indy owned Denver, and Denver owned the Pats, one of the sports sites—I thought FootballOutsiders—interviewed the president of the Rock, Paper, Scissors Society. It was funny as fuck. They asked him if he waa familiar with the above and he said, “Of course! We monitor all non-transitive tripartite competitive situations.”

 

[slamminsammya]

I’ve looked hard but for the life of me can’t find a link, but years ago when the Pats owned Indy, Indy owned Denver, and Denver owned the Pats, one of the sports sites—I thought FootballOutsiders—interviewed the president of the Rock, Paper, Scissors Society. It was funny as fuck. They asked him if he waa familiar with the above and he said, “Of course! We monitor all non-transitive tripartite competitive situations.”

more generally each season generates a directed multigraph where vertices are the teams with edges directed according to wins and losses. one may then find for a given season the maximally incoherent subgraph, i.e. a complete subgraph where each triple is a cycle. in this paper we show...

 

[Reverend]

more generally each season generates a directed multigraph where vertices are the teams with edges directed according to wins and losses. one may then find for a given season the maximally incoherent subgraph, i.e. a complete subgraph where each triple is a cycle. in this paper we show...

You’re spooky.

 

[Reverend]

more generally each season generates a directed multigraph where vertices are the teams with edges directed according to wins and losses. one may then find for a given season the maximally incoherent subgraph, i.e. a complete subgraph where each triple is a cycle. in this paper we show...

Also: That’s fucking hysterical.

And so, so good.

 

[Gash Prex]

According to DVOA, the Dolphins and Bills are #1 and 2.

View: https://twitter.com/ASchatzNFL/status/1706674934573908226


Interestingly the Pats offense is ranked 13th and defense is only 11th.

https://www.ftnfantasy.com/nfl/tools/team-total-dvoa

 

[BaseballJones]

Philly's offense so far:
vs NE: 18 points, 251 yards, 17 first downs
vs Min: 34 points, 430 yards, 24 first downs
vs TB: 25 points, 472 yards, 27 first downs
vs NE (compared to their average vs other Opp): -11.5 points, -200 yards, -8.5 first downs

Miami's offense so far:
vs LAC: 36 points, 536 yards, 30 first downs
vs NE: 24 points, 389 yards, 22 first downs
vs Den: 70 points, 726 yards, 30 first downs
vs NE (compared to their average vs other Opp): -29.0 points, -242 yards, -8.0 first downs

NYJ's offense so far:
vs Buf: 16 points, 289 yards, 13 first downs
vs Dal: 10 points, 215 yards, 12 first downs
vs NE: 10 points, 171 yards, 12 first downs
vs NE (compared to their average vs other Opp): -3.0 points, -81 yards, -0.5 first downs

 

[BaseballJones]

After four weeks:

1. Buf 3-1 - one little hiccup in game 1 but have been a total steamroller ever since
2. Mia 3-1 - got blasted by Buffalo but otherwise have been really good
3. NE 1-3 - and suddenly not even looking competitive
4. NYJ 1-3 - look more competitive than NE but NE at least beat them H2H

Buffalo looks like a juggernaut again. After losing that absurd game to the Jets in week 1, they've won three consecutive games by scores of 38-10, 37-3, and 48-20. Holy smokes. Miami is still good. That game just got away from them. The Jets and Pats look pretty bad, though NY at least looks feisty.

Buffalo's schedule looks pretty tasty for them moving forward. Next 7 weeks:

vs Jax
vs NYG
at NE
vs TB
at Cin
vs Den
vs NYJ

Honestly, they should pretty much breeze through these and hit the Philly game on Nov 26 at 10-1. The Pats, meanwhile, at least seem to have a bit of a break in the schedule. Their next 9 games:

vs NO
at LV
vs Buf
at Mia
vs Was
vs Ind
at NYG
vs LAC
at Pit

Other than the Buffalo and Miami games, these are all games you think should be winnable. They won't win them all, but they should at least have a real shot in all of them. So let's say over these 9 they lose to Buf and Mia, and manage to go 5-2 against the other 7. That would put the Pats at 6-7 going into the last four games of the year, which feature two winnable games (Den, NYJ) and two games they'll lose (KC, Buf). That would put them at 8-9, middle of the pack. No playoffs, and no great draft slot.

 

[54thMA]

That would put them at 8-9, middle of the pack. No playoffs, and no great draft slot.

Great, so they're perfectly mediocre, a middling team that won't make the playoffs and won't bottom out/be bad enough to get a top 10 pick.

Watching that Bills/Dolphins game this past weekend and seeing the offensive talent on the field, it's sad and depressing how bad the Patriots skill position players are on the offensive side of the ball.

Terrible drafts and bad free agent signings will do that to a team.

 

[Silverdude2167]

Great, so they're perfectly mediocre, a middling team that won't make the playoffs and won't bottom out/be bad enough to get a top 10 pick.

Watching that Bills/Dolphins game this past weekend and seeing the offensive talent on the field, it's sad and depressing how bad the Patriots skill position players are on the offensive side of the ball.

Terrible drafts and bad free agent signings will do that to a team.

I love pointing at teams that took over a decade to rebuild and asking why we can't be like them. If Mac was better, the offensive talent would look better full stop.

 

[jsinger121]

I love pointing at teams that took over a decade to rebuild and asking why we can't be like them. If Mac was better, the offensive talent would look better full stop.

Brock Purdy says hi. If Mac had what he had to work with on the OL and skill position players I’m pretty sure this board would shut up. The talent blows on this roster. Mac may not be elite but what does he even have to work with?

 

[Silverdude2167]

Brock Purdy says hi. If Mac had what he had to work with on the OL and skill position players I’m pretty sure this board would shut up. The talent blows on this roster. Mac may not be elite but what does he even have to work with?

Not really my point, but you are also kind of proving it.

That is a team that has been .500 or worse 6 out of the last 9 seasons. A really good way to get talent is to be shit for years.

 

[jsinger121]

Not really my point, but you are also kind of proving it.

That is a team that has been 500 or worse 6 out of the last 9 seasons. A really good way to get talent is to be shit for years.

deebo - 2nd round
Kittle - 5th round
Brandon aiyuk- late 1st round
CMC - trade


San Francisco can get elite talent without shitting and also make really great trades. They whiffed on Lance but at least have Purdy to make up for it.

The problem with patriots is simple. They don’t spend real cash and have not for years. I’m more than ready to move on from belichick because I don’t think this will get any better. It never does with these old coaches.

 

[Rico Guapo]

I love pointing at teams that took over a decade to rebuild and asking why we can't be like them. If Mac was better, the offensive talent would look better full stop.

Mac is clearly part of the problem but no QB could make this offense work with how bad the OL is.

 

[Silverdude2167]

deebo - 2nd round
Kittle - 5th round
Brandon aiyuk- late 1st round
CMC - trade


San Francisco can get elite talent without shitting and also make really great trades. They whiffed on Lance but at least have Purdy to make up for it.

The problem with patriots is simple. They don’t spend real cash and have not for years. I’m more than ready to move on from belichick because I don’t think this will get any better. It never does with these old coaches.

Cool, so they hit on two picks and were able to build a Defense and O-line using picks higher than the Pats have had in what 20 years?

Asking why the 49ers have more talent than the Pats is a stupid question.
They have been worse than the Pats and got very lucky that Purdy exists.

Also, the idea that the Pats should make trades like the one for CMC while everyone is complaining that they lack talent in multiple places is insane.
You can't fix your team by trading the assets needed to do so unless you think CMC fixes all the problems.

 

[sodenj5]

Cool, so they hit on two picks and were able to build a Defense and O-line using picks higher than the Pats have had in what 20 years?

Asking why the 49ers have more talent than the Pats is a stupid question.
They have been worse than the Pats and got very lucky that Purdy exists.

They’ve actually been pretty bad drafting in the first round outside of an obvious guy like Nick Bosa. Those guys don’t exist outside the top 5.

They’ve been extremely good at getting value out of their picks outside of the first round.

Hell, they traded away three first for a QB not on the roster any more and still might have the best roster in football.

 

[Silverdude2167]

They’ve actually been pretty bad drafting in the first round outside of an obvious guy like Nick Bosa. Those guys don’t exist outside the top 5.

They’ve been extremely good at getting value out of their picks outside of the first round.

Hell, they traded away three first for a QB not on the roster any more and still might have the best roster in football.

I stand partially corrected, although getting to draft one of if not the best defensive player in football helps with roster building.

l will say, that trading the first-rounders should not hurt them yet, but they will start feeling the impact of that in a year or two as rookie contracts start ending.

 

[BaseballJones]

San Francisco can get elite talent without shitting and also make really great trades.

From 2014-2018, here's what SF did:

2014: 8-8, missed playoffs
2015: 5-11, missed playoffs
2016: 2-14, missed playoffs
2017: 6-10, missed playoffs
2018: 4-12, missed playoffs
TOT: 25-55 (.313), zero playoff appearances, no finish better than 3rd in their division (incredibly, they finished 3rd in 2018 when they won 4 games)

So they really did have a lot of terrible seasons before becoming good again.

 

[54thMA]

I love pointing at teams that took over a decade to rebuild and asking why we can't be like them. If Mac was better, the offensive talent would look better full stop.

Two teams that hit on a QB and then made trades/drafted to put top shelf talent around them, ie, gave both of them something to work with.

The Patriots potentially hit on a QB and after a promising rookie year, gave him a lousy OC in year two, fixed that mistake but have not put top shelf talent around him.

Hopkins may not be the answer, but they should have made that deal vs getting outbid by the Titans.

The jury is still out as to whether Mac Jones is the problem or is it what he's got to work with; you seem to think he's the problem and the talent around him is fine.

Ok then.

 

[Justthetippett]

deebo - 2nd round
Kittle - 5th round
Brandon aiyuk- late 1st round
CMC - trade


San Francisco can get elite talent without shitting and also make really great trades. They whiffed on Lance but at least have Purdy to make up for it.

The problem with patriots is simple. They don’t spend real cash and have not for years. I’m more than ready to move on from belichick because I don’t think this will get any better. It never does with these old coaches.

The real question to me is whether the cash thing is BB or the Krafts. I know BB wants to spread the money around to create a deep roster but I don't think he's against spending.

 

[lexrageorge]

The real question to me is whether the cash thing is BB or the Krafts. I know BB wants to spread the money around to create a deep roster but I don't think he's against spending.

The cash spending thing is a myth that's been busted on these pages previously. It's the result of looking at selected seasons. Pats paid out a lot of cash in the 2021 free agent bonanza; salary cap rules have limited their ability to throw cash around since then, as those earlier contracts have to flush through the system.

 

[BaseballJones]

The real question to me is whether the cash thing is BB or the Krafts. I know BB wants to spread the money around to create a deep roster but I don't think he's against spending.

He's certainly not against spending money. This article is from 2015 so obviously it doesn't show any contracts since then, but it shows the times when he's gone out and spent big bucks. Here's the list from the article:

2000: Roughly two weeks after hiring Bill Belichick, the Patriots sign safety Lawyer Milloy to a 7-year, $36 million contract that was the largest in the NFL for a safety.

2003: The Patriots signed former Bears linebacker Rosevelt Colvin to a most 7-year, $30 million contract in March of 2003. That was the third largest for a linebacker to the Ravens' Ray Lewis' 7-year, $50 million deal signed in August 2002, and the Falcons' Keith Brooking's 7-year, $41 million contract signed in February 2003. Soon after Colvin signed, linebackers Takeo Spikes, Zach Thomas, and Brian Urlacher all signed contracts for more money, but Colvin's was at the top of the market.

2007: Former Baltimore Ravens linebacker Adalius Thomas signs a 5-year, $35 million contract with the Patriots, snagging the largest cap hit in the league, and earning the title of "highest priced free agent in Patriots franchise history."

2008: New England Patriots wide receiver Randy Moss signs a 3-year, $27 million contract. The $9 million average per year (APY) is fourth most in the league, behind just the Texans' Andre Johnson's $11.7 million APY, the Cardinals' Larry Fitzgerald's $10 million APY (this was a rookie contract), and the Colts' Marvin Harrison's $9.6 million APY.

2010 March: Defensive tackle Vince Wilfork signs a 5-year, $40 million contract, making him the highest paid nose tackle in the NFL.

2010 September: Quarterback Tom Brady signs a 4-year, $72 million contract, making him the highest paid player in the NFL.

2011 August: Offensive guard Logan Mankins signs a 6-year, $51 million contract, making him the highest paid guard in the NFL.

2011 December: The Patriots sign linebacker Jerod Mayo to a 5-year, $48.5 million contract extension, behind just 49ers linebacker Patrick Willis' 5-year, $50 million contract for the highest paid in the league.

2012: Tight end Rob Gronkowski signs a 6-year, $53 million contract, making him the highest paid tight end in NFL history.

2014: Patriots sign cornerback Darrelle Revis to a 2-year, $32 million contract, the $16 million APY the richest value for a cornerback in the league.

2015 March: Safety Devin McCourty signs a 5-year, $47.5 million contract with a safety-record $28.5 million guaranteed. His $9.5 million APY is the second most for a safety, behind just the Seahawks' Earl Thomas.

2015 July: The Patriots make Stephen Gostkowski the highest paid kicker in NFL history with a 4-year, $17.2 million contract.

 

[BaseballJones]

1. Miami 5-1
2. Buffalo 4-2
3. NY Jets 3-3
4. New England 1-5

Such a depressing thing to see.

 

[Groovenstein]

1. Miami 5-1
2. Buffalo 4-2
3. NY Jets 3-3
4. New England 1-5

Such a depressing thing to see.

All that’s missing is the Colts.

 

[luckiestman]

View: https://youtu.be/3tHPsphg9xc?si=9GLO5sjcQH5MPNB2