Somebody wearing a uniform undoubtedly uttered the words "I told you so" Wednesday night, after news of
Masahiro Tanaka's elbow issue spread across the majors, and it's very possible this was a four-word refrain in a lot of clubhouses. Because over the first two months of this season, even as Tanaka dominated hitters and earned the respect of opponents, there was a feeling among many players on other teams that it was only a matter of time before he broke down.
That opinion was not based on his daunting accumulation of pitches in Japan, where he threw 160 pitches in a start last fall before pitching in relief the next day. Rather, opposing hitters and pitchers and coaches and managers watched him throw splitter after splitter after splitter, at high velocity, and reached the conclusion that he is destined for Tommy John surgery.
For now, the Yankees are saying that Tanaka has elbow inflammation -- a polite presentation of a symptom, rather than an actual diagnosis -- and they hope to
get more information in the hours ahead, as the results of Tanaka's MRI are interpreted. But if his injury is to his ligament and surgery is needed, there will be a lot of nods around the game, because the perception of the splitter is that it's an elbow-killer, and Tanaka relied so heavily on the pitch in his first days in the big leagues. In fact,
according to Fangraphs, 25 percent of the pitches thrown by Tanaka this season have been splitters, easily the highest in the majors.