Tanaka partially torn UCL; out minimum of 6 weeks
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
- Start date
I believe the Yankees will be out of the top tier free agent market until after they burn off the Teixeira and Sabathia contracts in 2016. They have been over the salary cap for three years which means they will pay an extra $.50 on the dollar for each new contract. If they, for example, sign Lester for 7/140, their effective cost will be 7/210. I find it hard to believe that even the Yankees would be willing to absorb additional costs at that level.glennhoffmania said:
Lose Remerswaal said:
Fair enough. The NYYs have about $140 in ARod, Tex, Ells, Beltran, McCann, Gardner. Plus Sabathia, Tanaka. That gives them about $60-80ish mil to play with? Trouble is they're going to have to get a lot of immediate value out of that 60. Much depends on Tanaka's elbow, and the quality of ARod's return. Everyone else, with the possible exception of McCann have a good likelihood of having found their new baseline performance.
If their current big dollar players don't heal up *and* step up their performance, I don't see how they can compensate on the FA market. It may be tricky just to spend their way up to "credible threat." They have no prospects. If they overpay for past their prime FAs, they risk being trapped, as they are now, in a mesh of unmovable contracts.
jon abbey said:
No problem. Given the roster, it seems like Tanaka's health and effectiveness is uniquely important to the Yankees' overall future competitiveness though - I think that was how I got off topic, even if I didn't articulate it in the thread.
If the MRI came back unambiguously 100% clean then it seems like they would have just made an announcement by now to clear the air, as they've had the results for more than 24 hours at this point. I'm not saying its TJ surgery but there is a lot of secrecy and delay going on here.
@FeinsandNYDN: Cashman said Tanaka has seen three doctors - Ahmad, Altcheck and one more. All three diagnose a partially torn ligament in throwing arm.
@FeinsandNYDN: One PRP injection and throwing program has been recommended. It's considered a small ligament tear for Tanaka. TJ surgery not ruled out.
@FeinsandNYDN: Cashman said Tanaka could be back in six weeks if the rehab program is effective.
@FeinsandNYDN: One PRP injection and throwing program has been recommended. It's considered a small ligament tear for Tanaka. TJ surgery not ruled out.
@FeinsandNYDN: Cashman said Tanaka could be back in six weeks if the rehab program is effective.
Mark Feinsand @FeinsandNYDN 2m
Cashman said Tanaka has seen three doctors - Ahmad, Altcheck and one more. All three diagnose a partially torn ligament in throwing arm.
Mark Feinsand @FeinsandNYDN 2m
One PRP injection and throwing program has been recommended. It's considered a small ligament tear for Tanaka. TJ surgery not ruled out.
Mark Feinsand @FeinsandNYDN · 49s
Cashman said Tanaka could be back in six weeks if the rehab program is effective.
Mark Feinsand @FeinsandNYDN 1m
Cashman said it's Tanaka's UCL.
Cashman said Tanaka has seen three doctors - Ahmad, Altcheck and one more. All three diagnose a partially torn ligament in throwing arm.
Mark Feinsand @FeinsandNYDN 2m
One PRP injection and throwing program has been recommended. It's considered a small ligament tear for Tanaka. TJ surgery not ruled out.
Mark Feinsand @FeinsandNYDN · 49s
Cashman said Tanaka could be back in six weeks if the rehab program is effective.
Mark Feinsand @FeinsandNYDN 1m
Cashman said it's Tanaka's UCL.
@JeffPassan: The reality: Unless he's in the vast minority of players for whom rehab works, Masahiro Tanaka eventually will need Tommy John surgery.
So did Matt Harvey last year.DrewDawg said:
For a pitcher, having a partially torn UCL is almost the same as having a complete tear, just with a different time frame. The VAST majority will fail the conservative route and end up with surgery.
Does it make any sense to delay surgery? I mean, six weeks without him in the rotation is likely to end their chances at contending even if he does come back and the chances of him coming back are slim anyway. Why not get the surgery out of the way and have him back six weeks earlier?
2015 will likely be a lost year regardless, so I can understand taking their time. Whatever the docs recommend.
Seems to me that this development has an large impact on the division. Tanaka was the separator that the Yankees had from the other teams and with him they were still 3 games out. Throw in a flagging Toronto team and the Orioles look to be in the driver seat right now.
The impact of the Trade Deadline on the AL East is going to be huge this year. If no one makes a moveit's possible that the Sox may find themselves in it after all.
Sorry, who am I kidding.
The impact of the Trade Deadline on the AL East is going to be huge this year. If no one makes a move
Sorry, who am I kidding.
This is the perfect scenario. Yankees can dick around and waste the rest of this season with "conservative" rehab and he'll still need TJ some time in the future. Sweet.
Count me as another who thinks he's making a mistake by not just going under the knife and getting it over with. They'd likely be better off with a month or two of healthy Tanaka down the stretch in 2015 than a couple months of Tanaka trying to pitch with a partially torn UCL in 2014, and the surgery is all but inevitable anyway. It sounds like the partial tear might be less severe than Matt Harvey's was, especially since the doctors seem to be recommending this course, but it seems like pitchers almost never buy significant time with the rehab route on torn UCLs, regardless of how "partial" the tear is.
Well yea, but can't you say this about almost any pitcher? Why is Koji for 2 years any more of a health risk than signing Lester for 6 years? (Injury wise, because I think if he stays healthy Koji is a decent bet to be at least a solid bullpen arm for the next two years).Van Everyman said:
Eh. They should do whatever the doctors recommend. The most conservative, careful way forward possible. There are risks in any surgery. They'll probably know early in the rehab if it isn't working and he needs surgery, so it might not even be six weeks anyway.
Even if it is, so what? Six weeks over the course of a contract is nothing. He likely wouldn't be back in form for the rest of 2015 anyway. Giving him the next offseason and then spring training, while conservative, might be best anyway.
Even if it is, so what? Six weeks over the course of a contract is nothing. He likely wouldn't be back in form for the rest of 2015 anyway. Giving him the next offseason and then spring training, while conservative, might be best anyway.
Toe Nash said:
Or the fact that he won't cost quite the $175m that Tanaka did.
If he has the surgery now he should be easily be back to pitch a meaningful number of games next year, no? So I think there's definitely a downside to waiting 6 weeks in terms of the 2015 season.
I'd like to see a few crappy starts later this year - a resurgent X might make a credible ROY run.
He won't make it through rehab to make any starts if he isn't fit. But your goal for Bogaerts is duly noted.Rovin Romine said:
15% of "people". I presume this stat refers to all people who have it? Among professional athletes who have it done by the "best" surgeons, the modern day statistics are likely much better than 15% non-recovery of the overall surgeries.Hoplite said:
232 pitchers on MLB rosters 1996-2012 have had TJS. 135 (58%) never threw another MLB pitch after their surgery.
$155M says NY needs to play the percentages and try anything to avoid TJS, but at the same time, they need to know what their 2015+ rotation needs will be.
$155M says NY needs to play the percentages and try anything to avoid TJS, but at the same time, they need to know what their 2015+ rotation needs will be.
Van Everyman said:
Koji is like 107 years old. Tanaka is 25. Big difference.
Frankly, better this happen to the Yankees now when the Yankees aren't going to win anything then in 3 years from now when they might have a better shot.
Considering the long rehab process that recovery from Tommy John surgery is, I think a 6 week (at the most) gamble to possibly avoid it is a worthwhile gamble.
Besides, while I don't expect the Yankees to contend, they are somewhat contending now. It's easy for us to punt the season for them, but they shouldn't. Crazy stuff happens (ie the Sox last year)
Besides, while I don't expect the Yankees to contend, they are somewhat contending now. It's easy for us to punt the season for them, but they shouldn't. Crazy stuff happens (ie the Sox last year)
I think the general consensus for Koji is 1 yr + 1yr option. Not exactly in the same ballpark as Tanaka's deal.Van Everyman said:
Now if you are concerned about giving Lester a 6-7 year deal you may have a point.
Interesting but I wonder how many of those 135 were marginal MLB pitchers to begin with? And that is a pretty big spread (1996-2012), 16 years. I'd be curious to see the results of the last 5 years. It seems like most of the guys we've heard about the last few years have come back better. I'm having back surgery next week and have been doing a lot of research about it. 10 years ago I would have avoided it like crazy but the techniques and success rates have sky rocketed in that time. Just food for thought.staz said:
Let's say Tanaka undergoes surgery and has a full recovery. Can he then resume throwing splitters 25% of the time without much risk of reinjury, or will he have to start using his other pitches a lot more to protect his elbow?
strek1 said:
I think strek1 is on the right track. I don't buy those numbers for a second. When was the last time a #4 starter level pitcher, never mind a bona fide ace, had TJS and didn't come back to MLB as roughly the same pitcher (excluding cases whether the UCL wasn't the only problem)? I certainly cannot think of a single guy in the past decade who was a quality starter, tore an ACL and had TJS and never came back to pitch in MLB.
Bronson Arroyo could join that group, but that would be almost entirely a function of the fact that he's getting his TJS at 37 years old and would be 38-39 after a full rehab. Beachy and Medlen seem to be the most relevant examples of a bad outcome: both guys had rough rehabs and ended up reinjuring their repaired UCLs and requiring a second surgery. I believe Daniel Hudson had a similar issue. While it would certainly suck to be the guy whose replacement ligament blows out, that seems far less common than rehab being a waste of time for a guy with a torn UCL.
