The AL Wild Card Scoreboard Watch

[E5 Yaz]

Beginning the day, Sept. 1

Red Sox 74-59 (10h, 19a)
Orioles 72-61 (14h, 15a)
Tigers 72-61 (14h, 15a)

Astros 71-62 (13h, 16a)
Yankees 69-63 (16h, 14a)
Royals 69-64 (17h, 12a)
Mariners 68-65 (17h, 12a)

The Royals, coming off a 20-9 month, have 6 left with the Tigers -- including a three-game set beginning Friday -- and a home schedule that includes the A's, Twins and White Sox

The Tigers and Orioles have a crucial three-game series in Detroit starting Sept. 9. The Tigers also have the quirkiest schedule remaining -- as they finish the season with 3 in Atlanta

The Orioles end the year on the road for six games -- three each in Toronto and the Bidet.

The Astros have a brutal stretch to start the month -- @ Texas, @ Cleveland, home to the Cubs, home to the Rangers. Hard to see them surviving that still in contention.

The Yankees test will be a mid-month 11-game trip at Fenway (4), Tampa Bay (3) and Toronto (4).

The Mariners current five-game skid has hurt their chances, although they have a home-heavy finish. In they're still hanging around in two weeks, a six-game stand against the Astros and Blue Jays should determine their fate.

 

[tims4wins]

Not so much wild card related, but the Rangers have a better W-L differential (+27) than run differential (+24). That has to be unprecedented for a team that is going to win 95+ games.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Not so much wild card related, but the Rangers have a better W-L differential (+27) than run differential (+24). That has to be unprecedented for a team that is going to win 95+ games.

It's relevant to the wild card insofar as the run differential is probably more predictive going forward than the W/L record, so it's probably wise to think of the Rangers as a less daunting series opponent for WC contenders than a glance at the standings would indicate.

 

[Brand Name]

For reference, I'm going to go by run differential per game here, or what B-Ref calls Rdiff; the Rangers are at +0.177777778/game.


Doing the research on the above and going back to 1879*, of teams that won 95+, or played at least 84 games with a .586 winning percentage, the quotient of 95/162. This is unprecedented, but the closest teams I've found are as follows, with none of them making the postseason:


-1981 Reds: Yes, the same Reds who had the best record in the MLB that season, but didn't make it due to the strike and split season format. While they didn't win 95 games, extrapolating their 108 game season over 162 games puts them at 99 wins, who outscored their opponents by only 0.194444444 runs/game, scoring 464 and allowing 440.


-1954 Brooklyn Dodgers: Full season of 154 had them at .597, projected them to 96.714 games over a full 162. They scored 778, gave up 740, for a differential of +0.246753247 runs/game.


-1924 Brooklyn Robins: 92-62 would have tied the Senators for best in the AL, but finished a game behind pennant-winning New York. This is curiously the same record the same franchise would have 30 years later, with such a tight gap between W-L and run differential; both times with a Pythag of 81-73, both times losing the pennant to the Giants. They scored 717 runs, gave up 676, for a net of +0.266233766 runs/game.


*Why this year in particular? I feel the 1876 70 game schedule, and likewise, the 1877-88 60 game schedules are too small relative to 100, compared to the 84 games schedules held from 1879-1883, and the 98 game schedule held in 1883. Furthermore, in 1876, the clubs agreed to matches; the NA did not schedule them. For what it's worth, I went all the way back to the 1871 National Association standings, my qualifier wouldn't have added (or taken away, perspective depending) any teams to this list.

 

[flymrfreakjar]

It's relevant to the wild card insofar as the run differential is probably more predictive going forward than the W/L record, so it's probably wise to think of the Rangers as a less daunting series opponent for WC contenders than a glance at the standings would indicate.

Largely true, but a lot of their 'luck' was accumulated before the trade deadline. They're a much improved team with Darvish, Lucroy, Beltran etc. Their true talent now may be closer to their record than one might think.

 

[tims4wins]

O's lose to fall 1.5 back

 

[E5 Yaz]

The "other" series to watch this weekend:

Orioles at Tigers

Elsewhere

Rays at Yankees
Royals at White Sox
Cubs at Astros
Mariners at A's

The Astros loss to Cleveland, impacted greatly by the Jim Joyce screwup, really hurts Houston with the Cubs in for a weekend series

Red Sox 78-61

Blue Jays 77-62
Orioles 76-63

Tigers 75-64
Yankees 74-65
Astros 74-66
Royals 72-67
Mariners 72-68

 

[simplicio]

Remaining schedule for the current division leaders:

Texas (83-58): 12 home, 9 away; 6 vs Anaheim, 6 vs Oakland, 3 vs Houston, 3 vs Milwaukee, 3 vs Tampa
Cleveland (81-58): 9 home, 14 away; 7 vs Chicago Sox, 7 vs Detroit, 6 vs Kansas City, 3 vs Minnesota
Boston (78-61): 10 home, 13 away; 7 vs Baltimore, 7 vs MFY, 6 vs Toronto, 3 vs Tampa.

Looks like we easily have the hardest remaining schedule. Provided we can hang onto the division lead, who are we hoping to see in the ALDS, Cleveland?

 

[DeadlySplitter]

Texas is secretly pretty weak IMO. But I don't think the difference is major, provided we'll likely not have HFA.

 

[Srabbits]

Is there any doubt the MFY are going to make the playoffs? The ultimate nut punch. Would have been nice if the Shit Rays could have taken one game.

Fuck baseball.

 

[barbed wire Bob]

Is there any doubt the MFY are going to make the playoffs? The ultimate nut punch. Would have been nice if the Shit Rays could have taken one game.

Fuck baseball.

According to FiveThirtyEight, the Yankees have 28% probability of making the playoffs, so it is doubtful. Barring a major meltdown, it's pretty much given that one of the wildcard teams will be either the Red Sox or the Bue Jays. The Orioles and the Tigers have a 34% and 52% probability, respectively, of getting the second wild card. At this point I'm more worried about Red Sox winning the division and could care less about Yankees making the playoffs.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-mlb-predictions/

 

[Wingack]

At the trade deadline the Yankees chances were 4.5%. The odds are getting better with each day!

 

[budcrew08]

According to FiveThirtyEight, the Yankees have 28% probability of making the playoffs, so it is doubtful. Barring a major meltdown, it's pretty much given that one of the wildcard teams will be either the Red Sox or the Bue Jays. The Orioles and the Tigers have a 34% and 52% probability, respectively, of getting the second wild card. At this point I'm more worried about Red Sox winning the division and could care less about Yankees making the playoffs.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-mlb-predictions/

That sim has Boston going 12-8 over the last 20. Seems reasonable.

 

[jon abbey]

Barring a major meltdown, it's pretty much given that one of the wildcard teams will be either the Red Sox or the Bue Jays.

I disagree with this, I don't think any of these modeling scenarios is especially accurate as they don't (can't?) take into account how the composition of a team changes as the season goes along.

I think that the Red Sox or the Blue Jays will win the division, but the other is far from a lock for a wild card. The Tigers have 10 games left against Minnesota and Atlanta, so they have to be massive favorites for one wild card, and the other will be determined between the loser of BOS/TOR, BAL, NYY, and HOU. HOU is 4 back of TOR right now, but the other three are all within two games of each other with a ton of head-to-head games remaining.

 

[Srabbits]

The league desperately wants MFY in the playoffs. What is Girardi's success rate in overturned/challenged calls? I saw a balk overturned they other day. When the fuck has *that* ever happened?

 

[jon abbey]

The league desperately wants MFY in the playoffs. What is Girardi's success rate in overturned/challenged calls? I saw a balk overturned they other day. When the fuck has *that* ever happened?

That didn't even go to replay, the umpires acknowledged their mistake.

 

[SemperFidelisSox]

The Royals have 12 games left vs White Sox, A's and Twins. The Tigers or Royals could sneak in while the East teams are beating on each other.

 

[jon abbey]

The Royals have 12 games left vs White Sox, A's and Twins. The Tigers or Royals could sneak in while the East teams are beating on each other.

It's going to be really tough for the Royals, they would need to go 17-5 from here to get to 89 wins, and Lorenzo Cain is probably going to shut it down for the remainder of the season.

 

[Srabbits]

That didn't even go to replay, the umpires acknowledged their mistake.

Same difference. Have umpires ever "admitted a mistake" on a freaking balk ever?

 

[jon abbey]

Same difference. Have umpires ever "admitted a mistake" on a freaking balk ever?

So what's your theory here, you shitty blight on this site? The umps are under instructions to favor the Yankees, but one temporarily forgot and called a balk to score the tying run, so they huddled up, the others reminded him of their marching orders, and they changed the call? Think before typing.

 

[barbed wire Bob]

So what's your theory here, you shitty blight on this site? The umps are under instructions to favor the Yankees, but one temporarily forgot and called a balk to score the tying run, so they huddled up, the others reminded him of their marching orders, and they changed the call? Think before typing.

Comments like the bolded make me really appreciate our Yankee brethren. Thank you sir.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Comments like the bolded make me really appreciate our Yankee brethren. Thank you sir.

Makes me wish JA were a Sox fan.

 

[Sampo Gida]

The AL East is bringing back memories of 1967 with a 4 team race. The Yankees are looking like the 67 Red Sox at this point going on a 20-9 run and making up ground with a lot of kids playing roles. I guess Gary Sanchez playing the role of Yaz makes it an imperfect comparison, and Girardi is no Dick Williams.

Part of me fears or embraces a Yankee-Red Sox WC matchup. This will bring 1978 comparisons, but it's too early for that.

Concerning a couple of comments above. Given the ratings in recent years, it would not surprise anyone if MLB and the networks would love for the Yankees to get in and go deep. I can't believe in any conspiracy involving on field umpires, but I have long complained about the lack of transparency and accountability of review umpires. We don't see what they see, and they don't even give us the names of the review umpires. I have seen some curious calls the last couple of months, but nothing conclusive of bias. I'd actually prefer to eliminate replay at this point for this reason. It also takes a lot out of the game not being able to take the call on the field as absolute and knowing you have to wait for a review to know what the call was. Half these reviews would not even have drawn a protest before review. I'd prefer that if video reviews stay, that they be more transparent, and that managers should not be allowed to consult with anyone off field reviewing tapes and instead must make a challenge immediately (say 10 seconds). This will eliminate some of the more frivolous reviews, such as someones hand coming off the bag for a nano second.

 

[barbed wire Bob]

Makes me with JA were a Sox fan.

It is ironic that some of the best posters (or at least my favorite posters) on this board are Yankee fans. But that also speaks to the quality of the board itself and all the mods deserve credit for that.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

It is ironic that some of the best posters (or at least my favorite posters) on this board are Yankee fans. But that also speaks to the quality of the board itself and all the mods deserve credit for that.

Or maybe that a lot of Sox fans have become entitled douchebags?

 

[barbed wire Bob]

Or maybe that a lot of Sox fans have become entitled douchebags?

Well, there's that too.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

NYY pitching matchups for the next 8 games

TB @ NYY - Andriese vs Cessa
LAD @ NYY - De Lon vs Mitchell
LAD @ NYY - Urias vs Sabathia
LAD @ NYY - Kershaw vs Pineda
NYY @ BOS - Tanaka vs Rodriguez
NYY @ BOS - Cessa vs Buchholz
NYY @ BOS - Mitchell vs Pomeranz
NYY @ BOS - Sabathia vs Price

That's a tough 8 days for NYY with one favorable against the sox. They need to take 3 out of their next 4 while the rest of the AL east beats up on each other before going into Boston. We keep talking about the rivalry rekindling chances but I'm looking at this Boston series as a chance for the Sox to take the Yankees out of the playoff picture completely. Those games will be charged.

 

[jon abbey]

Houston and KC with losing streaks at the worst time, both 5 losses back with 17 to play now (18 for KC).

 

[tims4wins]

Toronto plays at 12:37 today if anyone wants to distract themselves from work

 

[tims4wins]

Tampa 6 - Jays 1 through 5.5. Estrada got roughed up, Jays have 1 hit.

 

[terrynever]

Jays have stopped hitting. Donaldson is banged up. Bautista and Tulo underachieving. Pitch around EE. Not scary anymore.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Watch the Mariners. With the Astros slipping, Seattle can be the sleeper in this pack, since they don't have to face any of the East teams (who could knock each other, or one of them, out of it).

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Jays have stopped hitting. Donaldson is banged up. Bautista and Tulo underachieving. Pitch around EE. Not scary anymore.

Cherington is such a failure. Can't believe he got another job

 

[BestGameEvah]

Blue Jays should call a player's meeting or something...

 

[E5 Yaz]

Blue Jays should call a player's meeting or something...

Maybe they need to bring up an uber-prospect and throw him into the lineup

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Fire Gibbons

 

[rembrat]

Gibbons needs to punch someone in the face again.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Watch the Mariners. With the Astros slipping, Seattle can be the sleeper in this pack, since they don't have to face any of the East teams (who could knock each other, or one of them, out of it).

They've been crazy streaky lately. In the 42 games since August 1, they started 15-6, followed by 3-11, and now have won 7 in a row.

 

[uncannymanny]

Jays have stopped hitting. Donaldson is banged up. Bautista and Tulo underachieving. Pitch around EE. Not scary anymore.

Can easily see the Yankees jumping into the WC game over Toronto.

 

[terrynever]

Can easily see the Yankees jumping into the WC game over Toronto.

Let's see how the upstart Yankees do in Boston and then we'll have a better idea.

 

[uncannymanny]

Let's see how the upstart Yankees do in Boston and then we'll have a better idea.

I hope terrible then they can win every game after that

 

[terrynever]

I hope terrible then they can win every game after that

Thanks. That might work out just fine for both teams.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

8 in a row for Seattle, 1 1/2 back of the 2nd WC spot.

 

[BestGameEvah]

Can easily see the Yankees jumping into the WC game over Toronto.

They've got Billy Butler now, after all...We'll see him tonight!

 

[jon abbey]

All of a sudden TOR and BAL have a 3 game lead on everyone else for the two wild card spots, 15 left to play.

 

[BaseballJones]

Obviously gunning for the division, but just in case.... The Sox now have a 5-game lead over Detroit and Seattle for that last WC spot, if needed. 5 games with 15 to play. If the Sox go 6-9, one of those teams will need to go 11-4 just to tie.

 

[Byrdbrain]

To add to the above, per Fangraphs the Sox now have almost a 70% chance of winning the division and over a 97% chance of making the playoffs.
The MFYs are down to a 4% chance of making the playoffs.
http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx

 

[barbed wire Bob]

The most recent projections from FiveThirtyEight show the chances that Red Sox, Blue Jays and Orioles make the playoffs as 96%, 73% and 71%, respectively. The Mariners are at 25% and the Tigers are at 18%. The Yankees chances have dropped to 5%. Sorry JA but there is still hope! Teams have been known to lose four games in a row when everything was on the line .

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-mlb-predictions/

 

[santadevil]

Why do the Nationals have a 24% chance to win the World Series now? Wasn't it 23% Cubbies and 21% Red Sox like 5 days ago?

Seems like a huge change.

 

[simplicio]

Why do the Nationals have a 24% chance to win the World Series now? Wasn't it 23% Cubbies and 21% Red Sox like 5 days ago?

Seems like a huge change.

Must be a glitch in the model, those happen sometimes. A couple weeks ago I noticed them give some fungible starter we were facing (maybe Triggs of the A's?) the highest pitcher adjustment I've seen.