The AL Wild Card Scoreboard Watch

[barbed wire Bob]

Why do the Nationals have a 24% chance to win the World Series now? Wasn't it 23% Cubbies and 21% Red Sox like 5 days ago?

Seems like a huge change.

It had to be a glitch because, right now, FiveThirtyEight lists the chance of winning the WS as 21% for the Cubs, 17% for the Sox and 9% for the Nats. Fwiw, their methodology is here. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-2016-mlb-predictions-work/

 

[Byrdbrain]

With all of the AL East competition losing yesterday the Sox odds of winning the division(per Fangraphs) is just over 80% with an almost 99% chance of at least getting in the wildcard.
Yankees have essentially no chance of winning the division and just over a 3% chance of the wildcard.
http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx

 

[Cesar Crespo]

So there is still a 53% chance one of Baltimore or the Jays doesn't make the playoffs.

 

[TheYaz67]

That sounds right, between the fact that they play each other 3 more times (so one sweeping the other would be a problem) and they both play mostly tough AL East opponents the rest of the way, while the Mariners for example have 7 games left against the Twins and A's (and play Toronto 3 times)....

 

[E5 Yaz]

That sounds right, between the fact that they play each other 3 more times (so one sweeping the other would be a problem) and they both play mostly tough AL East opponents the rest of the way, while the Mariners for example have 7 games left against the Twins and A's (and play Toronto 3 times)....

The Mariners have that schedule advantage, but they've shot themselves in the foot this weekend being swept thus far by the Astros. There's a huge edge for the frontrunners in a scenario where multiple teams are chasing.

 

[Srabbits]

The Mariners have that schedule advantage, but they've shot themselves in the foot this weekend being swept thus far by the Astros. There's a huge edge for the frontrunners in a scenario where multiple teams are chasing.

Seattle is winning 7-1 now. They were due for a few bad games after being red hot last two weeks.

Toronto seems to be falling apart. They haven't won a series in a while and got roughed up by the Rays.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Yeah, that Tor/Sea series tomorrow probably determines the last playoff spot, although that series helps Detroit too.

Toronto is down 4-0 too, so Seattle and Detroit could be within 2.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Both Wild Card races should be fun over the final week. Which is good, because the smallest division lead is the Sox, at 5 games.

 

[grimshaw]

The Red Sox are having a major effect at keeping everyone else in the race with this 7-0 run,

Houston has a legit shot now which is incredible based on their start and the roughest September schedule by far.
They have the Angels for 7 of 10 with the M's mixed in, so they could very realistically sneak past and knock out Baltimore.

Seattle has it pretty easy with the Twins and A's and that Houston series.

Come to think of it, Seattle and Houston could still knock out the Jays and O's if they don't sweep each other and take care of business in their other series. Less likely with the M's being 3 behind the Jays, but possible.

The Tigers have Cleveland, KC and Atlanta the rest of the way, so they may have f'd up their chances.

And holy shit, the Yankees are only 2.5 out. . .

 

[tims4wins]

Remember when this thread was created so we could keep track of the Sox competition for a wild card spot? Nice spot we're in now.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Tigers and Doziers tied 1-1 early.

 

[TheYaz67]

Not quite the same (since not the last series of the season) but if the Sox 4 game sweep of the O's (in Baltimore) ends up being a big reason they don't make it, there is a bit of payback for 2011...

 

[Cesar Crespo]

The NYY and Toronto series could have huge implications too if the NYY take 3 of 4 or sweep, pulling Toronto back down to the rest of the pack.

 

[BestGameEvah]

The NYY and Toronto series could have huge implications too if the NYY take 3 of 4 or sweep, pulling Toronto back down to the rest of the pack.

Tanaka will miss his start vs Toronto. That's unfortunate. Would love to see the Blue Jays miss post season all together!

 

[E5 Yaz]

The Astros give up 6 (so far) in the 9th, after leading by 2 going into it. All those players for Ken Giles ...