Depends on the future picks coming back. Mid lottery guys don’t exactly have a long track record of turning into superstars.
The Celtics Offseason
- Thread starter kazuneko
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Lots of Twitter chatter Magic might move Jalen Suggs if they go guard tonight. I’d be pretty interested in adding him to our stable of guards.
I was responding to a proposal that had 25, and the 24 GS pick. If you are saying a couple more #1s then maybe. I view the GS pick currently as being no more valuable than 25. Much weaker draft, and most likely a late teens pick, yes there is some upside, but most likely it's a late teens pick. I'd say 25 _ GS 24 #1 alone maybe gets you to 20. Add GW to 20, should not get you anywhere close to 7
As I said... Orlando's dream roster is seven bigs, seven point guards, and Franz Wagner.
There's very possibly something I'm missing and that is horrible about him, but what is the feeling on Anfernee Simons? Portland looks set to go all-in on Sharpe and Scoot, and probably will look for a quick rebuild once they trade Lillard.
His contract is great, so the cost might be steep, but you could then turn around this summer or next and turn Jaylen into a couple roleplaying wings/bigs + replenish picks, while still having a ton of playmaking/scoring talent between Tatum, KP, Simons, and DWhite. You probably would have to split him and White up against some opponents and make one a 6th man, but whatever.
I'm just really into the idea of turning Jaylen's salary slot into a scoring guard and 1-2 secondary wings, so I'll probably keep barking up the tree of every reasonable guard until something happens. Garland is the other one in that mold whom I'm into.
When you have a few shot blockers, and a lot of other good perimeter defenders, I'm just not that worried about finding ways to make it work with 6-2 type guards who are true scorers.
His contract is great, so the cost might be steep, but you could then turn around this summer or next and turn Jaylen into a couple roleplaying wings/bigs + replenish picks, while still having a ton of playmaking/scoring talent between Tatum, KP, Simons, and DWhite. You probably would have to split him and White up against some opponents and make one a 6th man, but whatever.
I'm just really into the idea of turning Jaylen's salary slot into a scoring guard and 1-2 secondary wings, so I'll probably keep barking up the tree of every reasonable guard until something happens. Garland is the other one in that mold whom I'm into.
When you have a few shot blockers, and a lot of other good perimeter defenders, I'm just not that worried about finding ways to make it work with 6-2 type guards who are true scorers.
He's essentially CJ McCollum----great scorer, ok passer, not a very good defender and physically is always going to be a liabilty at that end. A useful player, but probably not more than the 3rd/4th guy on a contender because he's more or less a one-way player.
Put a different way, while there's upside still there, he's probably not good enough offensively to take on the defensive risk.
I get the concept of the deal you're proposing but I worry it is (ultimately) a two-dimes-for-a-quarter kind of deal.
Put a different way, while there's upside still there, he's probably not good enough offensively to take on the defensive risk.
I get the concept of the deal you're proposing but I worry it is (ultimately) a two-dimes-for-a-quarter kind of deal.
Yeah, I'm explicitly proposing that the Cs find a way to do a 3-4 dimes for a quarter type deal around Jaylen. His particular quarter just doesn't fit on the court or under the new CBA. I'd feel differently if he was going to be on a normal 30% max (quickly going down to 27-28% as the cap spiked).
Simons also differs from CJ in that he's a very successful high-volume 3-point shooter. Not only that--if you watch his highlights, he's very comfortable taking them against tight contests. Imo that's just a really different player, with a lot more offensive juice to squeeze.
It's a valid discussion---I just struggle to believe more "good" is the right path, rather than supporting the two 'great' guys they have.
There are, though, as you allude to a few unknowns---final CBA and how much Celts are willing to spend; whether Porzingis is a 2nd star or not (my guess is no, but we'll see); whether Brown makes incremental improvements on passing and handle or he's maxed out on those things.
We will see, but my suspicion is that it will remain rare for a team to win a title wtihout two top-tier guys. Tatum + depth/versatility is appealing and I guess I could imagine it, but my default remains that you need a 1 and a 2 star and fill in around that, not a 1 and 3-4 near-stars.
I've watched Simons and I like him; his offense is already excellent and could have more room to grow. I don't see a 25 point a game vs tough defense guy, but I could be wrong...
There are, though, as you allude to a few unknowns---final CBA and how much Celts are willing to spend; whether Porzingis is a 2nd star or not (my guess is no, but we'll see); whether Brown makes incremental improvements on passing and handle or he's maxed out on those things.
We will see, but my suspicion is that it will remain rare for a team to win a title wtihout two top-tier guys. Tatum + depth/versatility is appealing and I guess I could imagine it, but my default remains that you need a 1 and a 2 star and fill in around that, not a 1 and 3-4 near-stars.
I've watched Simons and I like him; his offense is already excellent and could have more room to grow. I don't see a 25 point a game vs tough defense guy, but I could be wrong...
I just feel so differently about Jaylen at 5/215 or whatever as opposed to Jaylen at 5/300. This might be the crux of it: he is closer to being a (contract-adjusted) "star" for a team that isn't allowed to pay him 35% than he is for one who is.
Like right now.....health aside, is Jaylen better offensively than Porzingis? TS%, usage, AST/TOV, FT rate....they're really comparable, and eye test says that KP is no slouch at self-creating offense. He'll probably look even better in a system like Boston where the 3s are more open, and he's already a good shooter.
I think Jaylen is probably a better offensive player, but it's close, and KP is about to get paid about $36M/yr for 3 years (likely), while Jaylen is going to want 60M/year from the Cs starting next summer.
I'm wondering if the impact of this new CBA is that the 5/300 contract (or generally huge, overpay maxes) to less than top 10 players just stops happening. In the previous CBA, there wasn't really a penalty for signing them - look at Beal, worst contract in the NBA, no trade clause, way overpaid... still able to unload him. In the future, if that kind of a player pushes you into the second apron, the limitations around simply getting off the money - nevermind the tax implications - are enough to force teams to dig their heels in when it comes to negotiating.
So it's possible that the Celtics go to the table and say - yeah, you're valued here, you made 2nd team all NBA, sorry but we're going to pay you 225 over 5 years (or whatever the number is). The players have much less leverage now because I don't think Jaylen will want to test free agency (will he find more than that on the market?) and no team is going to want to trade for that near $60 million/year contract in a S&T b/c it'll fuck up their books.
IDK - it'll be interesting to see how it shakes out. This could be the CBA that finally forces owners to show restraint.
Yeah, exactly. I'll expand on this more later, but as long as we're talking about having 2 stars vs one star and 3-4 good players, I'm not at all convinced that Jaylen Brown is a Star.
Bruce Brown is on the free agent market. Was making 6.8million/year.
If he is willing to sign for grant williams type money (~10 mill/year), is he a worthy MS replacement?
If he is willing to sign for grant williams type money (~10 mill/year), is he a worthy MS replacement?
Yeah, if someone is down on Jaylen and doesn't think he's a top 15ish guy, then the supermax scares you and thinking about 2-3 assets for him makes sense.
As to Porzingis, a couple big differences: health, and continuity (it's not nothing that Porzingis is on his fourth team, imo) I can absolutely see the case for him as a 2---so could the Knicks, and so could Dallas, and would be thrilled if he shows he's a legit second or third star
No it won't. If the Cs offer JB a penny under the Supermax, he'll walk. Contracts aren't just about $, they are about respect.
The best the Cs might be able to get away with (as suggested by Ryan Bernardoni) is to hold firm on the 4th year player option.
The players who are going to get squeezed are the players like Grant Williams. He's a great asset on a team that is competing but if that team is in the 2nd apron, a $15M contract quickly becomes multiple times in actual cost. And he doesn't have much use on a rebuilding team.
Stars get paid in the NBA. That's the way it will always work given how much one star can tip the competitive balance.
I think @PedroKsBambino had it right. Simons is very similar to McCollum. He may be a better shooter but he’s probably a worse playmaker. I don’t think he’s anywhere near the cost that Portland would want and I don’t think he’s a great fit on the Celtics (or most teams trying to win it all for that matter).
I think for what the Celtics need, Tyus Jones is probably the best fit. I wouldn’t be surprised if that 3 way trade is resurrected where Brogdon goes to the Clips and the Celtics end up with Tyus.
Tyus/White/Jaylen/Jayson/KP/TL/Horford is a very good top 7. Ideally they add another wing and/or guard (Grant sign and trade and the $5M TPMLE). I think Hauser and Pritchard are better fits as 9th/10th men
I think that's a great solution for this season. After this season, you either pay Jaylen, or figure out what archetypes to replace him with. I think you basically have to find high-end scoring, so I'm looking in that direction.
This would likely push Jaylen to want to leave. He's already wounded from the KD stuff. He wants his big contract. He just got all-NBA. He's already indicated discomfort with the team and city. I think the options with him are to max the contract or to move him. Maybe now that Smart is gone some of the sting of Jaylen leaving would be taken out. But I want him to stay and get paid.
The Celtics really have to make the decision to sign Jaylen this offseason. They would be taking an enormous risk of Jaylen leaving for literally nothing if they don't offer him the supermax this summer but instead decided to wait until next offseason.
Their 2 options this summer are to either sign him or trade him. And the return from trading him this summer will likely be a couple of nickels in exchange for the dollar going out, along with some random draft picks a few years out.
The Jaylen thing the more I've thought about it is pretty straightforward, they'll offer him the supermax (question is player option), they'll give it 1-3 years then depending how it goes, probably trade him. If they win 1 or more rings... maybe they keep him
Seems like Poole was being discussed as an option for Boston.
View: https://twitter.com/BrianTRobb/status/1672242117903515650
New: Some thoughts on the interesting nugget from @JakeLFischer that Celtics had conversations with Warriors about Jordan Poole before Kristaps Porzingis deal
View: https://twitter.com/BrianTRobb/status/1672242117903515650
New: Some thoughts on the interesting nugget from @JakeLFischer that Celtics had conversations with Warriors about Jordan Poole before Kristaps Porzingis deal
I agree with his speculation that it was likely just looking for salaries that matched Porzingis and WAS might want.
View: https://twitter.com/KeithSmithNBA/status/1672285371747450888
Mychal Mulder going to Summer League with the Celtics.
Has had stints with GSW/ORL/MIA, shot 37% from 3 on 320 attempts, undersized for a 2 (6'3") but not really a PG
Mychal Mulder going to Summer League with the Celtics.
Has had stints with GSW/ORL/MIA, shot 37% from 3 on 320 attempts, undersized for a 2 (6'3") but not really a PG
From what I've seen, Mulder got his shot off against NBA defense just fine but he simply could not stay on the court defensively. I would expect some show-out during SL but not much beyond that.
Of course, I hope Mulder outperforms and that the truth really is out there.
Nice thing about Jaylen is he is really good and figures to still be really good for a while but is also not essential to the team competing for titles as long as Jayson Tatum is a Celtics. Because of Tatum, as mentioned above there are/should be deals out there where you give up the best individual player but the team ends up not much worse off (if at all) and maybe better balanced. I generally don't buy the "can't play together" stuff but it's hard to ignore that:
- JB's defense is an issue if he's not 1v1 against a ballhandler
- He simply can't be the focal point of an offense without accepting serious turnover/lack of ball movement risk
- His presence doesn't stop teams from bombarding Tatum with defenders (I have high hopes for KP in this regard just because he is big and can better occupy both exterior and interior spaces on the floor)
Brad dealing Smart, ups the delta of Brown getting dealt IMO
BUT I think the only way Brad can effectively trade Brown this summer is if Jaylen gave a list of teams he would immediately extend with.
OR are there other efficient avenues of trading JB?
don't ask me any details about this, idk any
View: https://twitter.com/PritchBurner/status/1671722325031415809?s=20
View: https://twitter.com/PritchBurner/status/1671722325031415809?s=20
Does trading Smart to Memphis open up a possible JB for Ja trade down the road?
Boston diversifies its roster, with big money in a wing, PG, and big, Memphis desides on building a defensive juggernaut, with just enough scoring from JB and Bane at the wings.
Boston diversifies its roster, with big money in a wing, PG, and big, Memphis desides on building a defensive juggernaut, with just enough scoring from JB and Bane at the wings.
Would JB be happy in Memphis? And as we know an unhappy superstar in the NBA is just renting a place on your team. And now that Memphis got rid of Jones what would they do at point (I know MS
, but we all know that is not a serious long term option). Also while you diversify Boston, you stick Memphis in that odd your two best players play the same position spot, which isn't ideal although JB clearly would have to play SF.More importantly would Boston want to touch JM. I think he is the better player, but he is also one step away from a one year or career ending suspension. And more than that, I am far from convinced JM is well suited for the absolutely pressure cooker from the Boston media
Brown cannot immediately extend with his new team, unless he was willing to take a massive pay cut (extensions have limits on how much the salary can go up from the existing contract). It is the same situation as when Kyrie was in Boston; he could not sign an extension even if he wanted.
In addition, extend-and-trade transactions have so many limitations that they are not really feasible as a trade tool except in very rare circumstances.
If Brown is traded, he will be an expiring contract and will be treated as such. Now, Brown could theoretically give verbal cues to Brad, as in "If you trade me to one of these 10 teams, I would strongly consider staying with them past the year". But theoretically is doing a lot of work; given Brown's position in the NFLPA, he's unlikely to do Brad or any other owner/GM such a favor. It literally does nothing to help him or his fellow players.
However, if Brown is an UFA in Summer of 2024, he can only be signed by a team with cap space, right? Which, I'm guessing, severely limits his options. I would think Jaylen could say "Here are my top few choices that I'd be looking to sign with" and I would think, the acquiring team could feel reasonably confident they could resign him. Not a guarantee, of course, and maybe one of those top 5 could shed enough salary to sign him outright. But, I'm just really skeptical that there are many situations that Jaylen would like, that would be able to sign him without killing their team.
If he is treated as such, he won't be traded, because the return will be mediocre. More likely he is treated as a guy very likely to resign with whatever team trades for him. Think Jrue Holiday to the Bucks
Thanks (you & nighthob are invaluable around here). Agreed, Grant & Brown will act in their "fellow player's interest" at every turn, so shouldn't expect any team/ownership favors (which is fair since both played on the team-friendly deals the last few seasons)
The Super MAX feels like a foregone conclusion with Jaylen. Gives Brad a year to figure out the pillars of the roster. Most teams without a Super MAX player would be JB buyers next season if Boston needs to re-construct.
Sure, Jaylen could agree to give Brad a list of, say, 8 teams to which he would be willing to extend next offseason. The problem is that the acquiring team would be taking Jaylen's word for it, and there would be nothing they could do if Brown had a change of heart during the intervening season, or if another team he really wanted to go to opened up cap space. Kyrie changed his mind a couple of months after telling fans he was looking forward to staying in Boston for a long time. Stuff happens.
Kyrie is also the only high-profile guy I can remember who changed his mind. Teams trade for guys based on verbal commitments all the time.
Also, Kyrie is quite literally insane.
I'm not sure what this JB as UFA talk is about. Even if JB wanted to be traded, he'd sign the supermax offer first and then tell BOS to figure out where to send him. He's not going to leave a ton of money on the table by not signing the supermax.
He cannot be traded for a year if he signs the supermax, so any trade would happen next offseason. Or even if it was, say, 90% of the supermax. But I agree it seems highly unlikely that he leaves that money on the table by refusing the supermax.
On the flip side, he can't sign an extension for six months after being traded according to this article - https://www.forbes.com/sites/bryantoporek/2023/03/22/new-cba-could-lower-all-nba-stakes-for-jaylen-brown-boston-celtics/?sh=5749ad8447b1 - so why wouldn't he go to free agency?
I know it only takes one but a team would have to be really really really certain of JB's intention to give the Cs close to full value and wait to re-sign him long term.
What made Kyrie unique wasn't that he changed his mind, it was that he very publicly told the team that he wanted to re-sign, and then changed his mind. I can't ever remember another player in his situation (max guy in a contract year) so openly saying one thing and then doing another. I'm sure these guys change their minds all the time, they're human and even if they like a situation (from afar), it's very easy to see how they could change their mind after being with a team/city for a year and getting more information.
If he wants to go a team that won't have cap space next summer then being traded there could be the better avenue.
Right, this is why JB would never request a trade. And this is also why the Celtics won’t trade him - why trade him now to a team that knows they might only be getting him for a year (and will discount his value as such) as opposed to extending him and then next year if they want to move on they can trade him to a team that knows he’s under contract for many years.
With Brown’s skill set there is little risk that his contract will become an albatross like Beal or Dame - Jaylen should remain very tradable going forward barring catastrophic injury.
Dwight Howard forced a trade to the team he wanted, and had his agent guarantee he’d resign there, only to change his mind at the last minute because Kobe tried to big time at the free agent pitch meeting.