The Celtics Offseason

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,937
I think it increases the urgency a bit of using Brogdon + picks to upgrade, yeah.
I don't know... this team is already probably the best in the league. I'm sure they'll consider Brogdon/TL picks for Jrue if it's there, but generally this team has a pretty ridiculous top 7, going to be tough to actually upgrade it
 

bosockboy

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
20,048
St. Louis, MO
I don't know... this team is already probably the best in the league. I'm sure they'll consider Brogdon/TL picks for Jrue if it's there, but generally this team has a pretty ridiculous top 7, going to be tough to actually upgrade it
The difference between Jrue and Brogdon isn’t worth TL. Brogdon and picks or just stand pat.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,937
The difference between Jrue and Brogdon isn’t worth TL. Brogdon and picks or just stand pat.
cap rules, basically have to send TL o Horford... also, if you want Jrue you need to make an offer POR takes over others and Brogdon is worth nothing to them, where TL they might keep.
 

Auger34

used to be tbb
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
9,685
The difference between Jrue and Brogdon isn’t worth TL. Brogdon and picks or just stand pat.
I am a big Jrue fan and I agree with this. With the injury issues and/or age related risk of Horford/KP/TL, I think you have to keep all 3.

I would like Brogdon+picks to be explored heavily but I can’t find a great match out there
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,272

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
48,734
The Blazers are likely going to expect and will probably receive young pieces in addition to draft capital for Holiday. Setting aside the salary matching aspects of any trade for the C's, its hard to see them getting Jrue without surrendering someone like TL in addition to a Brogdon+draft capital.

While the cost of TL is steep, Jrue solves a lot of issues for them (he isn't Smart at all -he is much better in some ways and not as good in others). Given where they are in their window it feels like they have to explore it. As others have speculated upthread, the market for him is likely to be very competitive.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
12,254
The Celtics are in this weird and slightly crappy position where they have 3 centers in their top 7 players, but aren't confident enough in the health of any of them to just roll with 2 and upgrade elsewhere.

The only way I really see around it, if you deal one of them, is to lean HARD into "regular season is meaningless in 2023" and play Luke Kornet a lot, come what may.

In that case, if Portland values TL (or thinks a 3rd team would), you can probably top some offers for Jrue and make a pretty nasty defensive team that also doesn't have offensive weaknesses.

You'd have effectively turned Smart and Brogdon and TL into Jrue and KP, which seems.....really good?
 

Devizier

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 3, 2000
19,604
Somewhere
Only other big downside of a trade for Jrue is that you’re moving one or more guys on reasonable longer term contracts for one guy with an expiring (effectively).
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,387
Getting Holiday is like getting Smart back. But would need another big. Probably take a 3rd team.
Brogdon money makes the match fairly simple. Include TL, who isn't the same TL as 2-3 years ago, if you must. Please Please Please give me some Holiday for Christmas!!! I can so see him locking up Lillard in the spring.

Edit: More thought on this. Pritchard would surely be included to head back to his hometown team in a contract year and give them minutes. Makes sense for their marketing in a down year too. Brogdon & Pritchard numbers alone should work then add our picks and maybe other stuff from a 3rd team. LFG!!!
 
Last edited:

128

Member
SoSH Member
May 4, 2019
10,104
Brogdon money makes the match fairly simple. Include TL, who isn't the same TL as 2-3 years ago, if you must. Please Please Please give me some Holiday for Christmas!!! I can so see him locking up Lillard in the spring.

Edit: More thought on this. Pritchard would surely be included to head back to his hometown team in a contract year and give them minutes. Makes sense for their marketing in a down year too. Brogdon & Pritchard numbers alone should work then add our picks and maybe other stuff from a 3rd team. LFG!!!
Count me in on that deal.
 

Auger34

used to be tbb
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
9,685
Brogdon money makes the match fairly simple. Include TL, who isn't the same TL as 2-3 years ago, if you must. Please Please Please give me some Holiday for Christmas!!! I can so see him locking up Lillard in the spring.

Edit: More thought on this. Pritchard would surely be included to head back to his hometown team in a contract year and give them minutes. Makes sense for their marketing in a down year too. Brogdon & Pritchard numbers alone should work then add our picks and maybe other stuff from a 3rd team. LFG!!!
Per @JakeRae, you have to add 4 more players to that.

When I tried the espn trade machine I couldn’t get the trade to work period without including TL or Horford

EDIT: Pritchard, Brogdon, Walsh, Queta, Kornet, Stevens, multiple 1sts.

Brad still has the Grant Willliams trade exception to use to get another solid reserve.
 
Last edited:

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,393
Santa Monica
Brogdon money makes the match fairly simple. Include TL, who isn't the same TL as 2-3 years ago, if you must. Please Please Please give me some Holiday for Christmas!!! I can so see him locking up Lillard in the spring.

Edit: More thought on this. Pritchard would surely be included to head back to his hometown team in a contract year and give them minutes. Makes sense for their marketing in a down year too. Brogdon & Pritchard numbers alone should work then add our picks and maybe other stuff from a 3rd team. LFG!!!
Yea, consolidate and add J'rue. But it's going to cost TL + Brogdon + a First (probably 2 Firsts)

would mean a lot of regular season minutes for Luke, which I'm 100% comfortable with...
 

Lazy vs Crazy

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
6,441
Jrue would get absolutely crucified here after his third playoff game shooting 6 of 17 or whatever. Seriously, check his playoff game logs for shooting especially from 3:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/holidjr01/gamelog-playoffs/

A whole lot of the Bucks falling short the past couple years was Jrue being unable to shoot. I remember I was praying for him to keep jacking it up in the series a couple years back. He is basically Marcus Smart all over again. I'd look for something else.
 

JakeRae

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
8,170
New York, NY
Per @JakeRae, you have to add 4 more players to that.

When I tried the espn trade machine I couldn’t get the trade to work period without including TL or Horford
Yes. We have to come very close to a full match in a trade where we are aggregating because of how close to the second apron we are. I think there’s about $2 million in wiggle room. There may be ways to enhance that by cutting unguaranteed players instead of trading them, but we would need to shed the salary one way or another.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,272
Jrue would get absolutely crucified here after his third playoff game shooting 6 of 17 or whatever. Seriously, check his playoff game logs for shooting especially from 3:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/holidjr01/gamelog-playoffs/

A whole lot of the Bucks falling short the past couple years was Jrue being unable to shoot. I remember I was praying for him to keep jacking it up in the series a couple years back. He is basically Marcus Smart all over again. I'd look for something else.
His career shooting numbers are much better than Smart's but, for whatever reason, he does shoot much worse in the playoffs. Not sure if that's just random variance or something else is going on.
 

Euclis20

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2004
8,248
Imaginationland
His career shooting numbers are much better than Smart's but, for whatever reason, he does shoot much worse in the playoffs. Not sure if that's just random variance or something else is going on.
It's really something. It's not a small sample either, 40 playoff games with the Bucks and 70 overall. The Celtics don't have anyone who requires quite as much attention as Giannis, but Jrue was the 2nd or 3rd option there depending on Middleton's health. He'd definitely be the 4th offensive option here, the hope would be that he'd benefit from being a much lower priority for opposing defenses.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
30,820
Jrue would get absolutely crucified here after his third playoff game shooting 6 of 17 or whatever. Seriously, check his playoff game logs for shooting especially from 3:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/holidjr01/gamelog-playoffs/

A whole lot of the Bucks falling short the past couple years was Jrue being unable to shoot. I remember I was praying for him to keep jacking it up in the series a couple years back. He is basically Marcus Smart all over again. I'd look for something else.
Problem with Jrue is that he's an expiring and if BOS is giving up that much for him, he's going to want a huge contract and I don't see how the Cs afford it from a cap perspective.

I'd rather have a healthy Brogdon on this team that Jrue just given the way Mazzulla coaches and the rest of the roster. The 40+% 3P shooting is important to have. Of course the problem with Brogdon is that he can't stay healthy for whatever reason.
 

PedroKsBambino

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
31,416
Problem with Jrue is that he's an expiring and if BOS is giving up that much for him, he's going to want a huge contract and I don't see how the Cs afford it from a cap perspective.

I'd rather have a healthy Brogdon on this team that Jrue just given the way Mazzulla coaches and the rest of the roster. The 40+% 3P shooting is important to have. Of course the problem with Brogdon is that he can't stay healthy for whatever reason.
Agreed, while I love Jrue's game I worry a lot about what you do after this year.

In some ways, getting Jrue might provide optionality around Jaylen after this year though it's all very risky
 

gammoseditor

also had a stroke
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2005
4,233
Somerville, MA
Jrue’s shooting would be less of a problem in Boston. Every team collapses the paint against Giannis, especially in the playoffs. Jrue would have better shooters around him in Boston and would be able to attack the paint more.
 

Auger34

used to be tbb
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
9,685
Agreed, while I love Jrue's game I worry a lot about what you do after this year.

In some ways, getting Jrue might provide optionality around Jaylen after this year though it's all very risky
I didn't realize Jrue was an expiring. Knowing that, I just don't think the numbers work out. If it was just Brogdon, Pritchard and 2 picks then I would be fine...but I don't think you can add either Rob or TL to that trade for an expiring.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
30,820
Jrue’s shooting would be less of a problem in Boston. Every team collapses the paint against Giannis, especially in the playoffs. Jrue would have better shooters around him in Boston and would be able to attack the paint more.
Last 3 years Jrue playoff shooting is:

2P%
3P%
EFG%
2020-21
.466​
.303​
.461​
2021-22
.410​
.316​
.432​
2022-23
.512​
.286​
.471​


Teams aren't packing the paint against MIL just because of Giannis (particularly with Middleton being slow to come back to where he was during their championship run).

Given the current salary structure of the team and the pending extensions, I'd personally be shocked if Brad traded for him (as opposed to driving up the price).
 

mcpickl

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2007
4,556
Per @JakeRae, you have to add 4 more players to that.

When I tried the espn trade machine I couldn’t get the trade to work period without including TL or Horford

EDIT: Pritchard, Brogdon, Walsh, Queta, Kornet, Stevens, multiple 1sts.

Brad still has the Grant Willliams trade exception to use to get another solid reserve.
You can't trade guys you just signed until December, Portland will surely move Jrue before then.

Even if you include everyone eligible below Al in salary along with Brogdon(Pritchard, Kornet, Hauser), it doesn't get you enough salary to match Holiday.
 

Auger34

used to be tbb
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
9,685
You can't trade guys you just signed until December, Portland will surely move Jrue before then.

Even if you include everyone eligible below Al in salary along with Brogdon(Pritchard, Kornet, Hauser), it doesn't get you enough salary to match Holiday.
The ESPN trade machine is really not great...

Yeah, dream over. Too bad, I think he would have been a very good fit and replacement for Brogdon
 

gammoseditor

also had a stroke
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2005
4,233
Somerville, MA
Last 3 years Jrue playoff shooting is:

2P%
3P%
EFG%
2020-21
.466​
.303​
.461​
2021-22
.410​
.316​
.432​
2022-23
.512​
.286​
.471​


Teams aren't packing the paint against MIL just because of Giannis (particularly with Middleton being slow to come back to where he was during their championship run).

Given the current salary structure of the team and the pending extensions, I'd personally be shocked if Brad traded for him (as opposed to driving up the price).
Right, but if teams play the same defense against us we’d have more open shooters. Jrue’s shooting is a problem, but it would be less of one here.

All that being said I think he ends up in GS.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,393
Santa Monica
Right, but if teams play the same defense against us we’d have more open shooters. Jrue’s shooting is a problem, but it would be less of one here.

All that being said I think he ends up in GS.
Jrue has shot 3s at a 39.5% clip over the last 3 seasons, he's a much better shooter than Smart

But agree that Golden State (& Miami) have the inside track on Holiday.
 

oumbi

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 15, 2006
4,193
One other way to consider the finances on making a Holiday trade work for Boston is to sign Blake Griffin and include his salary.

Griffin: $3,276,360 = minimum salary. Celtics can sign him for up to 120% of that, so $3,931,632.
 

greek_gawd_of_walks

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 14, 2009
9,185
Wiscansin, by way of Attleboro
Do the clippers still feel a certain way about Brogdon? To me, that feels like the most appealing way for the celts to get Holiday to Boston (which I'm in favor of-- Brogdon's documented durability issues and now potebtial ire towards the team are problematic). It also essentially recreates the first deal where Brogdon is gone and the more defensive-minded player is in the fold, albeit Holiday is an offensive upgrade (and depending on the metrics, defensive as well) from Smart. Getting the clips to help facilitate the deal feels like the best way forward, although getting the money to even up still seems like a semi-tough tango to dance.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,937
One other way to consider the finances on making a Holiday trade work for Boston is to sign Blake Griffin and include his salary.

Griffin: $3,276,360 = minimum salary. Celtics can sign him for up to 120% of that, so $3,931,632.
Maybe? THough then you have to wait until December which isn't happening.

Really though, POR isn't doing any trade that involves them taking a bunch of useless bodies that they have to cut guys to take in.

If BOS wants Jrue, they are going into it knowing that TL or Al is almost certainly going out. The real question would be how they can loop in a useful big in the return.
 

the moops

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 19, 2016
4,757
Saint Paul, MN
I didn't realize Jrue was an expiring. Knowing that, I just don't think the numbers work out. If it was just Brogdon, Pritchard and 2 picks then I would be fine...but I don't think you can add either Rob or TL to that trade for an expiring.
He has a player option in 24/25 for 37 million. He either takes the option or you work out an extension (or sign and trade)
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
8,276
Maybe? THough then you have to wait until December which isn't happening.

Really though, POR isn't doing any trade that involves them taking a bunch of useless bodies that they have to cut guys to take in.

If BOS wants Jrue, they are going into it knowing that TL or Al is almost certainly going out. The real question would be how they can loop in a useful big in the return.
Bring in Jrue and just piece it together until a buyout big comes along.
 

RorschachsMask

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2011
5,347
Lynn
If the Celtics are seriously interested, like all these reporters are saying, seems that they are willing to move one of Rob or Al, along with Brogdon.
 

the moops

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 19, 2016
4,757
Saint Paul, MN
except.... they can get (better) picks from other teams without cutting (and paying) guys.
I imagine if the pupu platter of filler salary + picks is what works, it would be a 3 or 4 team deal with a few of those filler guys being offloaded to other teams with some 2nd round picks. The better picks is debatable. PHI, MIA, LAC seem like the most interested and each have issues with giving up picks
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,937
I imagine if the pupu platter of filler salary + picks is what works, it would be a 3 or 4 team deal with a few of those filler guys being offloaded to other teams with some 2nd round picks. The better picks is debatable. PHI, MIA, LAC seem like the most interested and each have issues with giving up picks
GS is the frontrunner I believe, they can give both picks that have more likelihood of being good, and some interesting young guys.

Sure it's hypothetically possible that the Celtics have the best offer by piecing together 6 scrubs and by enough POR will take on the roster headache, I just doubt it. I think it's best to assume that if BOS is going to be a real contender for Jrue it's with TL or Al involved. Any time the hypo for a trade involves a bunch of extra teams, a bunch of cuts and signings, various waiting periods etc.... it's probably not going to happen. Especially when it's a competitive market and the reason for making it complex isn't really cap math but trying to give up as little as possible.
 

osori

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 8, 2009
2,371
We all saw how suffocating the offense gets in the playoffs when opponents just sag off of Smart.

I really don't want the Celtics to trade away TL or Horford for that experience again in the playoffs.

White is a much better player than Jrue, and I really don't see a point of playing them at the same time when going 2-bigs is probably much better in terms of talent with how our roster is constructed.

As long as Brogdan is willing to suit up and play, I wouldn't even trade him 1-1 with Jrue.