The Celtics Offseason
- Thread starter kazuneko
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Jaylen Brown working out in Bahrain with shooting coach Lethal Shooter, who has trained previous successes Grant Williams and Bobby Portis.
https://x.com/lethalshooter__/status/1706095388758028687?s=46&t=JB-l1_X_-gOH0Ec2bBMZcQ
https://x.com/lethalshooter__/status/1706095388758028687?s=46&t=JB-l1_X_-gOH0Ec2bBMZcQ
Putting aside whether either team wants to do it value/fit wise, cap-wise the only realistic configuration I can come up with would be Brogdon (headed presumably to a third team), Time Lord (who doesn't especially fit in Portland), Pritchard, Kornet, Hauser, and Quetta (or whoever at end of bench for contract ballast). Plus a bunch of picks presumably.
That would leave Celts super thin, among other things, like this not really making sense for Portland.
As always, I could be wrong but Jaylen resigning makes this really, really, really hard to see for me...not that it ever was likely or made sense.
Am I missing some viable way to get the salaries to work, or are we just dealing with baseless rumors that haven't even done the math?
That would leave Celts super thin, among other things, like this not really making sense for Portland.
As always, I could be wrong but Jaylen resigning makes this really, really, really hard to see for me...not that it ever was likely or made sense.
Am I missing some viable way to get the salaries to work, or are we just dealing with baseless rumors that haven't even done the math?
Makes very little sense to me too….
Though those lines would seem unlikely to move randomly. So you’d have to think they are in the mix, even if this is a leverage play from Portland?
Seems much more likely the Celtics are a 3rd team facilitator here rather than getting Dame.
I suppose if Portland LOVES Timelord (and hasn’t seen his MRI lol), Brogdon nets surprisingly good value on a 3 way, it’s within the realm of possibility if Portland struck out everywhere else.
Though those lines would seem unlikely to move randomly. So you’d have to think they are in the mix, even if this is a leverage play from Portland?
Seems much more likely the Celtics are a 3rd team facilitator here rather than getting Dame.
I suppose if Portland LOVES Timelord (and hasn’t seen his MRI lol), Brogdon nets surprisingly good value on a 3 way, it’s within the realm of possibility if Portland struck out everywhere else.
If I am the Blazers, absent a potential star coming back, the bodies don't really matter. They need as much draft capital as they can get and Miami is pretty constrained in that regard.
Maybe the thinking is that if Portland cannot move Dame to a Utah, San Antonio or even, say OKC, all of whom can send a lot of potential back, they can at least strike a deal with another contender where Dame will agree to play.
Again, typically stars go where they want but the Blazers are in a weird situation here. Also, who knows what things are like between the Heat and Cronin.
Or people are just bored waiting for the season to start and Dame will be in South Beach soon.
Maybe the thinking is that if Portland cannot move Dame to a Utah, San Antonio or even, say OKC, all of whom can send a lot of potential back, they can at least strike a deal with another contender where Dame will agree to play.
Again, typically stars go where they want but the Blazers are in a weird situation here. Also, who knows what things are like between the Heat and Cronin.
Or people are just bored waiting for the season to start and Dame will be in South Beach soon.
This has also been talked about before, but Dame's value is tricky.
He isn't young, he is small, and his contract is massive. He only wants 1 team (though maybe he can be persuaded otherwise) and only a handful of teams are even likely to be interested him him.
It's not like the Celtics would have to win some massive bidding war, they just have to be interested and willing to part with some of their non stars/assets.
I'm not too excited about the idea honestly, but I'm sure if they got him for Rob/Brogdon and spare parts I'd talk myself into it for a couple years.
He isn't young, he is small, and his contract is massive. He only wants 1 team (though maybe he can be persuaded otherwise) and only a handful of teams are even likely to be interested him him.
It's not like the Celtics would have to win some massive bidding war, they just have to be interested and willing to part with some of their non stars/assets.
I'm not too excited about the idea honestly, but I'm sure if they got him for Rob/Brogdon and spare parts I'd talk myself into it for a couple years.
Its almost certainly not happening but imo the only two parties that should have any questions about a Lillard trade to Boston are the Blazers and Dame. If you can put him alongside Tatum and Brown, you do it.
Not saying they should or would do it but the other avenue is keeping TL, which they probably need to do given KP's situation, and sending out both Brogdon and White, potentially to different teams with the return and some Celtics picks going to Portland. Lillard replaces White in the starting lineup and Brad would have to find some more offense to replace what you'd be losing with Brogdon off the bench.
New rotation:
Williams / Horford / Queta
Porzingis / Stevens
Tatum / Brissette / Walsh
Brown / Hauser
Lillard / Pritchard / Banton
Most likely in this configuration, you'd take out one of the Lillard, Brown, Tatum guys after 6 minute mark or so and let them anchor the bench scoring. But if you get Dame, you go way up on the buyout pecking order so I wouldn't be too concerned about finding some more bench scoring.
So just to add to this. Tatum and Dame would be ABSURD together offensively, they are two of the most aggressively defended guys in the league. Jaylen/KP would feast playing off of them.
Depth matters, and they’d have to make a follow up move next summer. But on the court? That much top end talent would be almost impossible to stop.
The deal was too risky for both sides when Jaylen was on the table (before he signed his extension), but you could squint and see how the teams could take themselves into it. Now that Jaylen can't be traded, I don't see how it makes any sense at all for Portland. We just don't have the pieces, and even if they are happy having the value be 90% about draft comp, future picks from the Celtics (who've missed the playoffs once in the last 16 years and are likely to have a 25 year old superstar signed up for the rest of the decade) are less valuable than from just about any other team.
Alternatives would be Brogdon and White or Brogdon, Horford, and Timelord. The former would require an additional player for cap purposes, but not inclusion of all our min contracts).
I actually think something like Brogdon, White, and filler makes more sense if going down this road. Our starting/closing 5 with Lillard is presumably Lillard, Brown, Tatum, Porzingis, and Horford/Timelord. Pritchard is a more capable rotation player than anyone who could step in as a bench big if we lose Horford or Timelord, particularly if we’ve also lost Hauser and Kornet. And as much as I like and believe in White, Lillard is a clear and significant upgrade. The rotation after a trade with White and Brogdon plus filler would look something like:
1: Lillard and Pritchard (also Banton)
2/3: Jaylen and Tatum with Hauser, Stevens, and Svi as backups
4/5: Porzingis, Horford, Timelord, and Kornet
That team has some depth issues but when you tighten to an 8 man playoff rotation with Pritchard, Hauser, and Horford/Timelord as your bench it is very strong with an extremely high level of top 5 talent. I’m not sure it’s a good move, but it is the way that makes sense to me. I also suspect White has more value to Portland than either of Horford or Timelord, either as a veteran for their rebuild or to trade for more assets.
Yeah I think White going out makes more sense on multiple fronts if this deal were even a possibility.
Probably does…
Though white is really good and can defend.
Losing Smart and White is not the most exciting proposition in the same offseason.
It is for me if the guy coming back is Damian Lillard. Defense suffers. Offense greatly benefits and you probably net out better. It would definitely change the dynamic of the team though. But I always side with elite offensive talent over chemistry/defense.
I can’t even imagine what Dame or Tatum would do when not consistently facing a loaded up defense. The defense will have to make a choice, and the other guy will just destroy.
When evaluating players, I think people significantly underrate just how much harder it is to put up numbers as the lead guy.
If you're bringing in Lillard then it would be White and Brogdon heading out to other teams to provide the ballast. I still don't see it.
The shot making of a Tatum, Brown, KP, Lillard lineup would simply be insane. And you'd have an ice cold closer as well. I get the concerns about age, defense, etc. but those factors are the only reason why he's even available. 27 year-old Dame is untouchable. I remember people being concerned about the Pats acquiring Moss and I was like, "umm...let me see Brady with a guy like Moss and find out". I feel the same about Dame. If you can get him for guys like White, Brogdon, TL, you do it.
Obviously, this remains unlikely but I'll be interested in a potential deal for as long as he remains a Blazer.
White, Brogdon and firsts probably tops anything Miami can do.
White and and a rehabilitated Brogdon have far more combined trade value than Herro. And both Miami and Boston have the "no one thinks their picks will be good" problem anyway.
I hate old small guards.......but you have to take your shots in the NBA, and that team is the instant title favorite, probably by a lot.
If it falls apart, you trade some draft picks in a couple years and redo things around Brown and Tatum. Or trade Brown and rebalance around Tatum.
White and and a rehabilitated Brogdon have far more combined trade value than Herro. And both Miami and Boston have the "no one thinks their picks will be good" problem anyway.
I hate old small guards.......but you have to take your shots in the NBA, and that team is the instant title favorite, probably by a lot.
If it falls apart, you trade some draft picks in a couple years and redo things around Brown and Tatum. Or trade Brown and rebalance around Tatum.
If you're holding onto all three of Tatum, Brown, and Porzingis, absolutely give it a shot with Dame. Picks with light protection. Get it done, Theo.
I'm sure I would talk my self into it quickly.... but I'm not entirely sure it's a homerun with White involved.
White is very good and fits well (Dame fits in his own way I suppose). DW at 2/35M + X extension vs Dame at his age and contract. I dunno...
If it leads to a title in 2023-2024 then if course sign me up, but I guess I just like White a lot and the current team we've got.
I agree you could deal White, and maybe you have to - but that really hurts in terms of defense, depth, balance.
I can't argue with those noting that JT, JB, Porzingis and Dame with TL/Horford/whoever is an awfully appealing front 7ish guys. But I still don't see it---huge tax issues for Boston, hard to be sure how that group plays on the floor, depth, etc. And I still don't really see how this works for Portland, though White likely has more value than anyone else being mentioned (I'd guess he's valued above Herro right now, especially given contracts).
I can't argue with those noting that JT, JB, Porzingis and Dame with TL/Horford/whoever is an awfully appealing front 7ish guys. But I still don't see it---huge tax issues for Boston, hard to be sure how that group plays on the floor, depth, etc. And I still don't really see how this works for Portland, though White likely has more value than anyone else being mentioned (I'd guess he's valued above Herro right now, especially given contracts).
If we call that 1.7 vs 4 DPM, that's a pretty big difference. The NBA happens at the margin, and that's a huge marginal upgrade, particularly on offense, where you get a cascading benefit adding someone like Lillard to Tatum/Brown/KP.
I am terrified of the age too, but he simply wouldn't be available otherwise.
I love Derrick too. Would absolutely suck to lose more glue guys, and you need people who just make super smart decisions at all times. But we're talking about adding a guy who's so good offensively that he's a borderline top-10 player despite playing garbage defense and having no supporting cast whatsoever. He's a .645 TS% last year at 33.8% USG%. He's a unicorn.
It's a shoot-the-moon move, and I'm ready for it.
I don’t really disagree with either of you, especially for this upcoming season at least.
I do worry the loss might be larger than we think with both Smart and White gone. Having said that, maybe Dame has some cascading positive effects on the offense that also aren’t as easily quantifiable.
Obviously if we start the season with DL, JT, JB, KP, RW (is he gone in these iterations too?) and Al….. that’s a heck of a squad to work with.
Hopefully big wings and good interior D would be enough on that side of the ball.
I do worry the loss might be larger than we think with both Smart and White gone. Having said that, maybe Dame has some cascading positive effects on the offense that also aren’t as easily quantifiable.
Obviously if we start the season with DL, JT, JB, KP, RW (is he gone in these iterations too?) and Al….. that’s a heck of a squad to work with.
Hopefully big wings and good interior D would be enough on that side of the ball.
Also, on the “pro Lillard trade” side of things, I’m not sure he would be quite as bad on D in a different situation.
He’s never going to be good but he’s not an IT shrimp out there.
In the playoffs with max effort and way more help on offense, he can probably hold his own and just be a bit below average. Which would be a big improvement.
He’s never going to be good but he’s not an IT shrimp out there.
In the playoffs with max effort and way more help on offense, he can probably hold his own and just be a bit below average. Which would be a big improvement.
Just having Tatum and Dame on the floor at the same time would cause so much chaos. They would instantly have two of the top five-ish gravity creators in the entire league.
Remember all of those stretches where Tatum and Brown are struggling and the Cs are searching for another consistent source of points? Those are likely a faint memory with Dame in the fold.
So yeah, this is a no brainer for Boston from where I sit, even if it costs both Brogdon and White.
Remember all of those stretches where Tatum and Brown are struggling and the Cs are searching for another consistent source of points? Those are likely a faint memory with Dame in the fold.
So yeah, this is a no brainer for Boston from where I sit, even if it costs both Brogdon and White.
I would HATE to lose White, but I think this nails it. Lillard is a stone cold shotmaker and closer, and I think JT has enough reverence/respect for Dame to recognize that he would be the guy to get the ball in those close and late situations.
The 4 of them plus Horford or TimeLord is just an absolutely absurd collection of offense. I think you have to do that deal.
Anyone know off the top of their head the luxury tax ramifications for trading to Dame?
Also, I think in any deal, Jordan Walsh is heading out. Which would be too bad but obviously if the Cs are going to do it, Walsh would not be a dealbreaker.
Also, I think in any deal, Jordan Walsh is heading out. Which would be too bad but obviously if the Cs are going to do it, Walsh would not be a dealbreaker.
Tangentially….
If the Celtics are major players here, does Brad run this by Tatum (and Jaylen)? Ask their opinion?
Would be such a major move, but also tricky to let the players even know about it. They’re obviously friends with the guys potentially involved. Always kinda wondered how that stuff goes down.
I get the sense he at least superficially gets Tatum’s approval on something like this, even if he doesn’t let him know the details in advance.
If the Celtics are major players here, does Brad run this by Tatum (and Jaylen)? Ask their opinion?
Would be such a major move, but also tricky to let the players even know about it. They’re obviously friends with the guys potentially involved. Always kinda wondered how that stuff goes down.
I get the sense he at least superficially gets Tatum’s approval on something like this, even if he doesn’t let him know the details in advance.
Weren't there reports over the summer that Tatum was trying to selling Dame on Boston, with no luck?
Tatum has apparently been recruiting Dame all summer, so he’s probably in favor of it.
I definitely think Brad runs some stuff by them, probably Smart too, in the past. I think Tatum has top level clearance though, like with the KD stuff.
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This has me wondering if he checked with Tatum before sending Smart out. I haven't heard anything on that.
It's just too much to put together, but my first thought is that the top of the roster would resemble 2017-2019 GS. A Dame/Tatum pairing would be an updated version of Curry/Durant (not quite as good, but the closest we'll get with today's players), and Jaylen is probably fairly close to Thompson as well obviously with lesser shooting. Porzingis isn't half the defender or passer that Draymond is, but is an infinitely better offensive player and somehow spreads the floor even more. If Rob stays, he's Looney, the guy who plays hard defense and stays out of the way on offense other than rebounding. If it's Al, he's Iguodala, the vet who plays solid defense and fits in perfectly with the rest.
I haven’t either.
Seemed like the whole Brogdon/Smart trade stuff got shaken up last minute (even if the leg work was done before) so maybe didn’t have time to anyway.
Why does this gambit scare me ? Simple. Can he stay healthy?
The trends of Celtics picking up stars who hold up to the rigours of the Garden is less than stellar.
Gordon Hayward,
Kemba Walker,
Kyrie Irving (a special case),
Brodgon (couldn't make it through the playoffs),
KP (do you really think his feet won't be an issue?)
Al H is the only notable exception!
Thus: swapping out a durable DW for an aging Lillard could have more downside that upside; since the Celts are
a championship quality machine as is IF THEY STAY HEALTHY.
FYI:
Lillard games played
22-23: 58,
21-22: 29,
20-21: 67
19-20 : 66
18-19 : 80
(before that he was always over 73)
Kemba walker
22-23: 9,
21-22: 37,
20-21: 43
19-20 : 56
18-19 : 82
The trends of Celtics picking up stars who hold up to the rigours of the Garden is less than stellar.
Gordon Hayward,
Kemba Walker,
Kyrie Irving (a special case),
Brodgon (couldn't make it through the playoffs),
KP (do you really think his feet won't be an issue?)
Al H is the only notable exception!
Thus: swapping out a durable DW for an aging Lillard could have more downside that upside; since the Celts are
a championship quality machine as is IF THEY STAY HEALTHY.
FYI:
Lillard games played
22-23: 58,
21-22: 29,
20-21: 67
19-20 : 66
18-19 : 80
(before that he was always over 73)
Kemba walker
22-23: 9,
21-22: 37,
20-21: 43
19-20 : 56
18-19 : 82
I would think it’s highly unlikely he ran that by Tatum. Smart was pretty beloved by his teammates and I think Brad would recognize emotions would run raw with that trade
Huh? Hayward suffered a catastrophic injury and Kemba had a degenerative knee injury. Brogdon tore a ligament in his elbow. Not sure what you can do about any of those situations.
Sounds like they are due for regression (in a good direction) when it comes to health luck
I don't know much about Lillard's injury history, but doing this games played thing to evaluate injuries is likely too non-specific in this situation to be helpful.
Kemba had multiple knee surgeries, partial meniscectomies, and (at least in retrospect we know) bad arthritis in his knee. A guy like that is going to be toast sooner rather than later.
Lillard's games played don't mean much in a vacuum. It matters why he missed the games and which injuries he had. Some heal just fine, others (like arthritis) are just going to get worse over time.
Lillard's injury history isn't particularly daunting, he's just an aging small guard. He missed 90 games over the last 5 years, but his only serious injury was in 2022, a "lingering abdominal injury." He missed just 13 games from 2019-2021, and 14 games last year through late March, at which point the Blazers sat him because their season was over. His concerns are the same as Curry, whose missed 44 games over the last 2 years.
Will probably regret saying this, but I wouldn't hate him going to the Raptors instead of the Heat. Especially if they give up real pieces. Seems like a win/win for the C's.
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/38491724/sources-raptors-current-front-runners-damian-lillard
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/38491724/sources-raptors-current-front-runners-damian-lillard
That's sort of what I figured.
Definitely plenty of built in risk there on that alone, but not a near certain rapid decline like Kemba circa 2020.
It should be a distant memory just with Porzingis on board. Add Lillard? Holy god that's unreal offensively. And if you have a defensive guy in the mix to those four, that's still plenty of D to go along with insane O.
Does the pressure to upgrade the team (mostly Brogdon) to compete with the Dame/Giannis Bucks kick in now? Not panic trade but a new urgency to make the roster as good as it can be?
I think it increases the urgency a bit of using Brogdon + picks to upgrade, yeah.