He was the best game coach in the league because the best QB to play the game was his QB for 20 years. Now, he's gone. He is 26-27 since he left. How has he proven, post Brady, that he is the "best game coach in the league"?
This is now: BB and the direction of the Patriots
- Thread starter DennyDoyle'sBoil
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100% trust BB to evaluate players and coach on the defensive side of the ball but unfortunately have no faith on the other side of ball and it is likely the fatal flaw that will ultimately lead to his departure from New England. It’s hard to blame BB for being behind the 8 ball on offense considering he didn’t have to worry much about it for 20 years. He had Brady and even Dante, who was largely able to stabilize the offensive line play. The modern day NFL offense appears to have passed him by and it’s been sad to watch. As others have mentioned, he has brought us so much joy that’s it’s hard from to get angry at him.
Always thought BB would got out on his own terms and I no longer think that unfortunately.
Always thought BB would got out on his own terms and I no longer think that unfortunately.
The Pats lost to three teams with a combined record of 10-2, all of which are in the top five or six of the power rankings of the league, and the Pats were competitive in, and reasonably a few plays away from winning, two of those games. (Maybe that's a stretch in the Dolphins game, but I think it's absolutely true of the Eagles game.)
It doesn't look great right now, but maybe give Belichick and this team a few more games before considering them both lost causes?
It doesn't look great right now, but maybe give Belichick and this team a few more games before considering them both lost causes?
I wonder if the CBA changes limiting activity have neutered Bills biggest advantage, aside from assuming he can still game plan effectively: pounding on his players in practice until they get everything right. Its a larger topic, but I wonder if this is NFL's jump the shark year: feels like the quality of the overall product is sooo bad and the games are fractured across countless platforms, etc. Is Te Te actually Fonzie in disguise? Inquiring minds want to know...
Anyway, Bill used to count on the other team's high flyers coughing the ball up or not executing consistently against 1) Bend 2) Don't-break 3) GiveBallBackToBrady. Now his teams aren't executing either so the choice to peanut-butter the money around the entire offense instead of having differentiated skills looks even worse. This is with cheap Mac mind you, where the great and wise GMs exploit that value advantage to create mismatches around the field which compliment the QB. We have a long line of peanut butter receivers w/ B- skills paid at A- prices (and somehow Pop snuck some skills under the Bill draft radar late). I'm sure they are great a blitz pickup though, which is what really matters...and now I'm just being bitter.
Anyway, Bill used to count on the other team's high flyers coughing the ball up or not executing consistently against 1) Bend 2) Don't-break 3) GiveBallBackToBrady. Now his teams aren't executing either so the choice to peanut-butter the money around the entire offense instead of having differentiated skills looks even worse. This is with cheap Mac mind you, where the great and wise GMs exploit that value advantage to create mismatches around the field which compliment the QB. We have a long line of peanut butter receivers w/ B- skills paid at A- prices (and somehow Pop snuck some skills under the Bill draft radar late). I'm sure they are great a blitz pickup though, which is what really matters...and now I'm just being bitter.
Because we haven’t had .500 talent, we’ve had worse, particularly on O. Obviously that’s on Bill. But he dragged the carcass of last years team to 8 wins. That’s coaching.
Re the bolded, yes of course he gets the year to get it right...but no more. Hope your first paragraph doesn't end up looking like whistling past the graveyard.
At the same time they haven't beaten a good team since 2021, the weather game in Buffalo. Going back beyond that, I guess maybe the Ravens game the Newton year? They basically beat the shitty teams, lose to the good ones. This is how it goes This is the list of QB's they've beaten in the last 2+ seasons:
Zach Wilson
Davis Mills
Zach Wilson
Justin Herbert
Sam Darnold
Baker Mayfield
Matt Ryan
Ryan Tannehill
Josh Allen
Trevor Lawrence
Mitch Trubisky
Jared Goff
Jacoby Brissett
Zach Wilson
Sam Ehlinger
Colt McCoy
Teddy Bridgewater/Skylar Thompson
Zach Wilson
I see no reason to think this is suddenly going to change.
Yeah. It will sound contradictory, but I believe bad teams find ways to lose games the same way good teams find ways to win them. So they have been a bad team thus far.
They played the 4-0 Eagles evenly. They lost a close game to the 3-1 Dolphins. They beat the Jets - a team that beat Buffalo and got lost a close game to the defending SB champs. Then, yeah, they got absolutely mauled by the Cowboys.
Here are some other teams that have gotten destroyed this year:
Cin - 24-3 to the Browns and 27-3 to the Titans
Pit - 30-7 to the 49ers and 30-6 to the Texans
Sea - 30-13 to the Rams
NYG - 40-0 to the Cowboys and 30-12 to the 49ers
LV - 38-10 to the Bills
NYJ - 30-10 to the Cowboys
Ten - 30-12 to the Browns
Den - 70-20 to the Dolphins
Was - 37-3 to the Bills
Jax - 37-17 to the Texans
Chi - 41-10 to the Chiefs
Mia - 48-20 to the Bills
Cle - 28-3 to the Ravens
NO - 26-9 to the Bucs
Ari - 35-16 to the 49ers
So that's 15 teams in the NFL that have suffered absolutely demolitions at the hands of their oppositions - three of them have had it happen twice. And of those teams that have suffered humongous defeats, the following either made the playoffs last year or who were widely considered to be legit playoff contenders this year:
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
Seattle
NY Giants
NY Jets (granted, this was with Rodgers at QB)
Jacksonville
Miami
New Orleans
So yeah, getting bludgeoned by Dallas sucks, but (a) Dallas has done this to three teams already this year, and (b) lots of other erstwhile "good" teams have gotten their asses handed to them at least once already this year, so NE has plenty of company.
Was it Parcells who said, "You play who you play"? There are some good QBs on that list, and some less than good QBs on that list. But that's the league now. Do the Titans get extra credit for beating a Joe Burrow team yesterday? Because he's not a very good QB right now. (Says a regretful fantasy owner who drafted him over Lamar and Herbert and any of the rookies who look like a smarter choice thus far.)
There's a popular sports theory that the best sign of a good team is beating the crap out of bad teams. The corollary of that is that if you're on the receiving end of that beatdown, you're the bad team.
That's an amazing list actually.
But Justin Herbert is a terrific young QB, even if the Chargers aren't great. That's still a good win. And Jared Goff and the Lions have demonstrated themselves to be pretty solid. They went 8-2 down the stretch last year and are 3-1 this year. Goff was really good last year and the Lions had the #5 offense in the NFL last year at 26.6 points per game. And this year they're 3-1 and Goff has been good. Detroit is legit and the Patriots beat them 29-0 last year. That was a VERY good win last year for the Patriots. I know it's only one, but still, it counts.
So 2 good wins the last 36 games, one if which comes against a 1-4 Lions team that looks better in hindsight because the Lions figured it out after that game.
First, we need to throw out the Cam Newton year. The Pats had zero cap space after going all-in for both the 2018 and 2019 seasons, a move that was endorsed from Robert Kraft on down. Team had to take large cap charges in 2020 for both Antonio Brown and the Tom Brady void years, along with several other cap carryovers that come due at some point for literally every single team in the league. Given CoVid nobody should care about that season anyway.
But coming out of the missed year in 2020, the team knew it had to rebuild the offense, and went out and brought in the free agents and drafted Mac, who again was the best option on the draft board at 15. That strategy has obviously not worked. Agree it's time to rethink the strategy, but unclear that "cleaning the decks" is the way to go, as there is a lot of downside to that approach as well.
I do think what we're seeing is that not even the best coaches can do much in today's NFL if the QB and skill position players and OL are all below to significantly below average. Someone mentioned the McPherson years above, and that doesn't seem too far off. That 1992 team lost 5 games by 1 score or less; the following season with a rookie Bledsoe at QB, the team lost 8 games by 1 score or less (and, no, to restate the obvious, I'm not comparing Mac Jones to Drew Bledsoe). Neither team is considered any good; the reality is that bad teams lose lots of games close, and periodically get blown out. Losing close games is not the mark of a good team.
But coming out of the missed year in 2020, the team knew it had to rebuild the offense, and went out and brought in the free agents and drafted Mac, who again was the best option on the draft board at 15. That strategy has obviously not worked. Agree it's time to rethink the strategy, but unclear that "cleaning the decks" is the way to go, as there is a lot of downside to that approach as well.
I do think what we're seeing is that not even the best coaches can do much in today's NFL if the QB and skill position players and OL are all below to significantly below average. Someone mentioned the McPherson years above, and that doesn't seem too far off. That 1992 team lost 5 games by 1 score or less; the following season with a rookie Bledsoe at QB, the team lost 8 games by 1 score or less (and, no, to restate the obvious, I'm not comparing Mac Jones to Drew Bledsoe). Neither team is considered any good; the reality is that bad teams lose lots of games close, and periodically get blown out. Losing close games is not the mark of a good team.
The gymnastics we go through to convince ourselves that the last few years haven’t been below average is kind of weird. I guess the Rams, Eagles, Panthers, Seahawks and Falcons played us roughly evenly in those super bowls.
I don’t even know what the point is. We are a 1-3 team that just got crushed for the worst defeat in Belichick’s career, with no prospects of making the playoffs. That this is a thing that happens in the NFL means what exactly?
We will probably play the two Bills games and the Miami game remaining relatively close and so we can talk about what could have been and all the missed holding calls or what would have happened if that thing that screwed us didn’t happen. Maybe we‘ll eke out a win if we can get a turnover or draw our first significant defensive PI in a year on a big play. Probably not. Unless we get lucky and Tua or Allen get injured, because that is our best strategy recently.
We are bad. We will not always be as bad as we are now. But we stink. Yes, some other teams do too. Hooray?
No, no we don’t. Bills inability to plan for the transition from QBs or OCs or Olines or oline coaches is testament to the fact it’s not working: I still remember clearly when Bill was ahead of things: forward looking D strategy, well coached in situational football and special teams, stacking draft picks forward…now it’s none of that.
No team could plan for it given the fact that the salary cap exists and the team rightfully decided to go all in for Brady's final 2 seasons, which resulted in a Super Bowl trophy. Every single team in the NFL goes through a salary cap reset period, even the mighty Steelers and Chiefs.
I find the Bill has let the game pass him by argument to be a bit overstated. He's rebuilt the defense into a unit that can keep up with speed. The health woes suggest we might not get to see it at full potential this season, but the roster building and coaching on that side of the ball can't be completely discredited here. Obviously, I understand the majority of the "Bill has lost it" argument to be about offense, but when evaluating the future beyond this season I don't think the defensive rebuild can be completely thrown out as meaningless.
On offense, the results have been disastrous and a lot of it's on Bill. The varying degrees of bust that were/are Wynn, Harry, Strange, and Thornton have put the roster in a horrible hole. That said, I disagree with most of the complaining about the 2021 spending spree - Agholor is still really the only deal that didn't make sense at the time. They had a rookie QB and they spent money on most of the best players available to put him in a position to succeed. But yeah, the results on offense have been miserable and would get most people fired. That said...
Evaluating the situation as a whole, I'm increasingly understanding of the people who want to move on, but I lean toward giving Bill at least 2024. The team will have the cap space and likely the picks to significantly overhaul the offensive side of the ball. They'll be returning much of a potentially elite defense. Barring a miracle turnaround, they'll be essentially certain their current QB is not the guy. (In the case of miracle turnaround, they'll likely be essentially certain he needs at least 1 tier 1 option at receiver.) I still think it's more likely than not that BB as head coach likely represents an advantage over most alternatives, especially those who will be available this year. I get it if he's run out of rope in terms of building the offensive roster for others here - my confidence is definitely lower than it was 5 years ago. Simply put, I think the chance they compete in the next 2 years is higher with him than without, but I get moving on if you think there's a much lower chance of him drafting well this year than the unknown.
On offense, the results have been disastrous and a lot of it's on Bill. The varying degrees of bust that were/are Wynn, Harry, Strange, and Thornton have put the roster in a horrible hole. That said, I disagree with most of the complaining about the 2021 spending spree - Agholor is still really the only deal that didn't make sense at the time. They had a rookie QB and they spent money on most of the best players available to put him in a position to succeed. But yeah, the results on offense have been miserable and would get most people fired. That said...
Evaluating the situation as a whole, I'm increasingly understanding of the people who want to move on, but I lean toward giving Bill at least 2024. The team will have the cap space and likely the picks to significantly overhaul the offensive side of the ball. They'll be returning much of a potentially elite defense. Barring a miracle turnaround, they'll be essentially certain their current QB is not the guy. (In the case of miracle turnaround, they'll likely be essentially certain he needs at least 1 tier 1 option at receiver.) I still think it's more likely than not that BB as head coach likely represents an advantage over most alternatives, especially those who will be available this year. I get it if he's run out of rope in terms of building the offensive roster for others here - my confidence is definitely lower than it was 5 years ago. Simply put, I think the chance they compete in the next 2 years is higher with him than without, but I get moving on if you think there's a much lower chance of him drafting well this year than the unknown.
The last three years the Patriots have been exactly 19-19 in the regular season. That's the very definition of average. It feels below average to us because we've gotten used to all-world performances year in and year out.
I mean, they kinda did, yeah? Those games were all really close. Someone has to win though. Glad it was us. It wasn't us when the Pats played the Giants even twice and then Philly even once.
It means that getting slaughtered in a singular game doesn't really mean very much other than you sucked that day. Which can happen to TONS of teams in the league. I mean, Miami, who just won a game 70-20 (!!!!!) just got absolutely destroyed by Buffalo the very next week. The blowout isn't the concern. It's the overall body of work that's the concern. The Pats are just average. Mediocre. And we want much, much better than that.
No, they don't "stink". They're mediocre. Average. Which "stinks" to us because we experienced the glory of 20 years of dominance.
I think I’m with you re: 2024. The league is littered with franchises who thought “all” they had to do was go get the young, whiz-bang OC to be their HC and the titles would flow like wine.
He’s still Bill Belichick. If he’s truly not capable anymore then we’ll know soon enough. After the 2001-2019 run I’m willing to give him the “year too late” that he didn’t extend to his players.
JFC, we bicker about what are good wins or not in every thread. Yeah, every team has good and bad days but come on. Does anyone think this roster can make noise in the playoffs? Please make that argument. There are just too many things that would have to go right and they don't have enough talent on the offensive side of the ball.
BB is probably going to upset a team or two (although Mac hasn't really done that) and their defense is solid so they're going to play most teams close, but this isn't a hidden good team that's just getting unlucky. It needs a lot of help, especially on offense. How to do that and whether that is best suited to BB alone or some other combination of people is what this thread is about.
BB is probably going to upset a team or two (although Mac hasn't really done that) and their defense is solid so they're going to play most teams close, but this isn't a hidden good team that's just getting unlucky. It needs a lot of help, especially on offense. How to do that and whether that is best suited to BB alone or some other combination of people is what this thread is about.
Ok fine, there was going to be a salary reset on some level but this isn’t a salary cap hell problem and doesn’t justify the trajectory. Does the cap mean the Cam was the right choice to move the franchise forward? That you couldn’t recruit or develop a functioning young OC? Mac the cheap QB should facilitate any cap challenge and we’ve squandered it with fundamentally appalling choices (Cam and Patricia and expensive but average WRs and expensive but average TEs).
Again, I absolutely recall long periods and clear lanes where Bill was better than his peers. I see none of that now, he’s just in a very uncomfortable comfort zone with his operation. Maybe there is still the game planning.
My best hope for improving is the steady drip over the remaining season of his historically unmatched ability to rally his teams to play their potential. I’m just worried the Colonel Jessup stuff doesn’t work for offensive football anymore.
Getting blown out by good teams is more indicative of the real quality of the team than coinflip games against less good teams. This has been proven.
We only have 4 data points this year but I don't think this is an average team.
100% with you here, but I think it's worth asking whether they're a good offseason away from being a good team. I lean yes, acknowledging that the QB is a big part of the equation and the hardest to get right. Ymmv, and I basically said as much 3 posts ago so don't mean to repeat myself, but I think it comes down to the question of whether doubts about BB being the guy to navigate that offseason outweigh the likelihood that come training camp he's still likely to be better than most options for the job.
I literally gave a list of 15 NFL teams that have gotten absolutely destroyed this year in at least one game. Miami - a team everyone had #1 in the power rankings two days ago - got absolutely smashed by Buffalo yesterday. They were "blown out by a good team" - was that indicative of the real quality of Miami?
I'm NOT saying NE is as good as Miami. I'm saying that blowouts happen all the time in the NFL, so I'm not really weighing yesterday that heavily as I evaluate how good I think NE is. I'm evaluating the whole season.
I would say that with the exception of MIA and SEA, all of those teams are bad this year.
There are plenty of ways to look at this early season. Weeks 1-3 are a Rorschach test. You can say they were a couple of plays away from being 3-0, or you can argue they were a Rodgers injury/Cobb fingertip away from being 0-3. I'm concerned with the fact that it's yet another year in which they not only lose as underdogs, but never even seem to cover in those spots. Aren't they 0-fer ATS in their past 8 games as dogs or something? Even the dregs of the league pull off upsets every once in a while, this team is incapable of overcoming talent deficits.
The Jonnu and Hunter deals taken together also didn’t make sense. Bill likes the double dip draft strategy which I understand. Hopefully one of the two RBs/TEs hits. But as free agent signings….Jonnu and Hunter were a redundant waste of money. And I liked both individually.
Maybe. I mean, going into this season, Cincy was considered to be one of the best teams in the AFC, having gone to two straight AFCCGs and having one of the best group of position players in the league. Others on that list made the playoffs last year. And here we see that others on that list were predicted by many experts to be playoff teams.
Pit 10-7, wild card
Jax 13-4, division winner
Den 9-8, flirting with the playoffs
So yeah they look terrible now, but they weren't thought to be terrible before the season started.
And those deals to Jonnu and Hunter happened within what, 12 months of Bill taking not one, but TWO tight ends in the third round in 2020. Two guys that have a combined 7 catches for 60 yards and 1td in their NFL careers, which are probably over already. Then he immediately followed that up in the same draft by going kicker in the 5th on a Nazi that never broke (or made it to?) camp.
Some teams have to be average though, don't they? Including the Pats, there are 16 teams on that list that he just posted. I mean, unless teams are either "good" or "bad," some of them have to fall into the average bucket. I think you guys are probably talking passed each other a little.
I will NEVER understand the Rohrwasser pick. It made absolutely no sense to me at the time, and of course it makes no sense in retrospect. It was the most bizarre, most insane draft pick BB has ever made. There was nothing about it that made sense.
Totally agree, I think equating coaching with penalties has always been kinda dumb. Its similar to in basketball folks talking about stars getting calls - usually the talent gap is whats causing guys to have to foul, not the refs being biased.
The players just suck, and that's why they make dumb penalties and play shitty situational football.
Yes I think it is possible that Buffalo, who has been a top team for the last three years, is better than Miami, who is significantly better than Denver, who sucks.
The problem here is we have just 4 games for each team this year. In 4 weeks we'll know more. Typically, teams who get blown out more often are less likely to do well the rest of the season and you learn more (as far as bland analytical predictions etc, not watching them) from those games than the outcome of close ones. Maybe the Pats are actually good and they will play somewhat better for sure, but I'll take the under.
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Lazar was speaking recently as to why Pats offense players are making dumb mistakes and his thought is sometimes they are just trying to make a play. They know the offense sucks and that lends itself to trying too hard which causes fumbles and penalties.
Or, you know, 19-20 if you don't take out the playoff game where their opponent didn't punt. Or you could say 26-28 in the last 4 years. Or you could say 3-8 in their last 11.
There are all kind of ways to contextualize your team. Children play that game where they say their 2-8 team beat team A, which beat team B, which beat team C, which beat the national champions, so we are national champs! One could say we "almost" beat the Eagles, or one could note that we just got humiliated by a team that was beaten soundly by the shitty Cardinals.
This team stinks. It can't run, it doesn't have receivers that can catch, it can't block, it can't overcome penalties, and it has a cheap quarterback but did not spend the money elsewhere efficiently enough to get into the top 6. Put it this way -- $100 to the Jimmy funds if the team completes the three years -- which is your yardstick -- at or above .500. I'll be rooting for you to win, but am pretty secure in the knowledge you won't.
This isn't an argument about Belichick. I think this thread is a year too premature at least, probably two, which I've posted in several places. But if we're going to have the conversation, squinting to see what we want to see doesn't advance the ball.
I mean if you're drafting a guy with the name Rohrwasser, wouldn't you at least check first that he's not a Nazi. Like it'd be harder for me to believe that he wasn't than that he was.
I don't see ANYONE here arguing that the Patriots are *good*. The range we seem to be working with here is somewhere between "stinks" at worst and "mediocre" at best.
I used 2021-2022-2023 because you said, "the last few years", and "few" = three. But whatever, we are picking nits here. A team that hovers around .500 for a several year period doesn't "stink". That's mediocre. Average. Not good. Not "stinks". Basically the definition of average.
But - and here's the important thing really - whether we want to grade them out as "stinks" or "mediocre", in either case, it's not remotely good enough for ANY of us. We ALL want them to be better. MUCH better. None of us are happy or satisfied with where the team is, and honestly, none of us really sees the light at the end of the tunnel either. And that sucks worst of all.
I'm trying to picture being a Jags fan though. You were terrible for a while, then got Lawrence and that wasn't going so great at first, but got better at the end of last year when it looked like they were going to break through big time. Then they started 1-2 this year and frankly, Lawrence hasn't been good at all.
Lawrence: 96-143 (67.1%), 943 yds, 6.6 y/a, 4 td, 2 int, 89.0 rating
That's not exactly anything to write home about. Especially not for a guy who came in with expectations of being in the NFL MVP race. I do think he'll improve and the Jags will be fine, but....maybe they won't be. Just last week they got blown out at home by Houston.
Did you watch the game against Houston? Lawrence was actually very impressive. Dime after dime dropped by receivers in key spots.
Seriously, you are now judging someone by their last name? Who else is a Nazi do you think?
He's calling them average, not good. If the only definition you're willing to grant for "average" is "at or above .500," doesn't that really mean "perfectly average or above average?"
How about if he called them "mean" in the math sense. Would that work better?
Here are the regular season records of every AFC team since the start of 2021:
Chiefs: 29-9
Bills: 27-11
Cinci: 23-14
Ravens: 21-17
Miami: 21-17
Titans: 21-17
SD: 21-17
Pitt: 20-17-1
Patriots: 18-19
Browns: 17-21
Raiders: 17-21
Colts: 15-22-1
Jaguars: 14-24
Denver: 13-25
Jets: 12-26
Texans: 9-28-1
Pretty sure that's the definition of average with an even number of teams, 8 better, 7 worse records.
I think it was a joke about his association with a far right organization that the team was unaware of prior to drafting him.
What gets me is that people were justifiably appalled by his 3 percent tattoos when he got to New England, but Marshall showcased him in a promo video and that tattoo was clearly visible in it and no one said, "Hey, this is super problematic"?
No I didn't, and I'm sure he did (he's a talented player so this wouldn't surprise me). They still got beaten by 20 points at home.
Sure, but if there ever was a "not his fault" loss by a quarterback, that was it. Most EPA lost to drops in the first three weeks of the season since they started tracking EPA/Play, by the way. Also third highest PFF grade among all QBs. Lawrence will be fine and Patriots fans should stop using his raw box score stats to make points about Mac Jones.
Do we get to count Lawrence's interception too though?
Look, I'm not discounting what you're saying, and I wasn't using Lawrence's performance to pump up Mac (didn't mention Mac at all in that post actually). I deliberately did not compare Lawrence with Mac, but rather to make the point that coming off last year it sure looked by all means that the Jaguars were ready to step up into the AFC's elite this year (one publication I posted predicted they'd go 13-4 this year), but they've been mediocre so far (including a blowout loss to Houston), Lawrence's season numbers (I have him as my fantasy QB and he's been a HUGE disappointment this year) are not good, and it's not been a tiny sample size. It's been a quarter of the season so far and he's been.....meh. Yes I'm sure he's made some nice passes that haven't been caught. I totally believe you on that.
Ok. I'll concede that we're kinda average, maybe a little below, but with a better chance of catching the teams below us than the ones above is in the near future -- notwithstanding the fact that we hung with the Eagles.
The problem to me is that this team is worse than last year. They were average up until this year, but now they are legitimately bad.
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