What about the start period did I cherry pick? It's pretty obvious that the period is from collapse in the 2nd half of the '19 season and the post-Brady era.
Leading up to Brady's exit, Bill had poor draft results for a 5 year stretch. In 2014, they wasted a 1st rounder on Dominque Easley but hit on Jimmy G, Stork, and James White. In 2015, they got a serviceable rotational DT in Malcom Brown in the 1st but only got Tre' Flowers and Shaq Mason(and Joe Cardona but let's be honest it's a LS) out of that draft. 2016 they hit on Joe Thuney and Brissett/Roberts/Karras were serviceable but Thuney was the only impactful player. 2017 was a disaster with only Wise being useful. 2018 was the Wynn and Michel in the 1st(yuck), picking Duke Dawson in the 2nd round(big yuck). They did get Bentley out of that draft, but that's mostly a bad draft. 2019 was the N'Keal Harry/Joejuan Williams/Chase Winovich Day 1 and Day 2 haul(yuck). Damien Harris was the only hit. 2020 you had Dugger and Onwenu who have been good and Jennings has come on this year, but Devin Asiasi/Dalton Keene/Justin Rohrwasser were complete misses. Josh Uche has been a disappointment.
Because of all the draft misses, Bill had to spend a ton in free agency to try to cover up all of his mistakes in the draft. He hit on Matt Judon and Hunter Henry/Kendrick Bourne have been serviceable, but lit money on fire and gave it to Jonnu Smith/Nelson Agholor. Jalen Mills has been a disappointment too.
Going back to the draft after 2020, he screwed up Mac Jones. That is the biggest indictment on whether to keep Bill long term. If they finish in the top 2 and draft a QB that high, how can you trust him to handle the biggest investment they've had in decades? Barmore looks like a keeper and Rham has been good. 2022, again a questionable 1st round pick in Cole Strange, they completely whiffed on Tyquan Thortnon , Jack Jones, and Pierre Strong. 2023 actually looks like a decent draft with Gonzalez/White/Sow/Baringer/Douglas looking like long-term contributors.
Given that they're going to have at least a top-5 pick and a ton of cap space, I don't have faith that Belichick is the guy that should be heading this up moving forward. I'm not as smart at the evaluation processes or the scouting process as a guy like
@SMU_Sox is, but what I do know is that things have to change.
The days of having a competent enough offense and an elite defense and having that be enough to win a Super Bowl are over.