Flores was an unmitigated disaster at the end in Miami. The Belichick way of coaching does not work unless you are BB himself. There's a reason why Patricia, McDaniels, and Flores all were out of their jobs every time after just a couple of years.
This is now: BB and the direction of the Patriots
- Thread starter DennyDoyle'sBoil
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He won a super bowl on February 3, 2019.
I liken it to a relationship too. If you're with someone for a few years and it's not working, why stay. But if you're with someone for 20 years and had the best sex and love of your life and then had a few bad years, maybe "there's more fish in the sea" isn't the right approach. Not criticizing. Change is sometimes needed even then. You find out that the wife took out a second mortgage without telling you and spent it on sex tourism with the Cirque du Soleil cast, maybe it's not salvageable. But it doesn't feel like we're there yet.
The 20 good years with Bill is a track record that nobody approaches in modern times, let alone with the salary constraints of the NFL. You're betting that it's less likely that the only guy who has ever done it is less likely to do it again than the next guy, who has never done it (because nobody has).
I think a lot of people argue that BB's incredible track record was mainly due to Tom Brady, who he no longer has, and they don't really view BB as this incredible coach when he doesn't have the GOAT QB. So his track record with TB really doesn't impress them that much (relatively speaking).
Bill has 100% earned the right to leave on his own terms. Being fired or let go is/should be a non starter.
I would let Bill have one more shot at the draft, one more shot at getting a solid team out there. I lay a lot of the blame at Mac Jones’ feet as I think he is end of season Cam Newton level bad. No one, not even the 49ers offense could win with him. And I don’t mean rookie Mac - he was a different player than current Mac. Current Mac is seeing ghosts.
Anyway - if Bill leaves to another team, I’ll probably watch that team more. His career and legacy is far more interesting than Kraft’s.
Sucks that I have such waning interest in both teams I grew up watching now.
I would let Bill have one more shot at the draft, one more shot at getting a solid team out there. I lay a lot of the blame at Mac Jones’ feet as I think he is end of season Cam Newton level bad. No one, not even the 49ers offense could win with him. And I don’t mean rookie Mac - he was a different player than current Mac. Current Mac is seeing ghosts.
Anyway - if Bill leaves to another team, I’ll probably watch that team more. His career and legacy is far more interesting than Kraft’s.
Sucks that I have such waning interest in both teams I grew up watching now.
Eh, if we suck again we’ll get another good pick. Like 1990 and 1992. I’m skeptical of any “this is a defining moment for the franchise” type stuff.
I have sympathy for this point of view. This is my problem generally -- pretty much everyone in NFL history is a demonstrably worse coach than Belichick. Every single alternative that's suggested feels inferior. It's nearly impossible for me to imagine the Patriots without Belichick, and I continue to think our measure of NFL success has been entirely warped.
Still, if Belichick's run with this franchise is truly over, someone has to replace him. And Vrabel seems about as likely to succeed as anyone?
In the past 4 Brady-less seasons, Vrabel's Titans haven't been clearly inferior to the Pats.
- '20-'23 Vrabel Titans: 35-28 (.555, 2 playoff appearances)
- '20-'23 Belichick Patriots: 28-35 (.444, 1 playoff appearance)
What do you think about the argument for long-term franchise stability? In other words, during an era when Robert will likely hand the franchise off to Jonathan, they'd try to go with the Steelers model and hire 48-year-old Vrabel instead of the 72-year-old Belichick?
I suspect the rolling 2-year contract extension is largely about not having Bill in a “lame duck” situation which could harm his ability to sign free agents and generally conduct the GM aspect of his job.
If Kraft is frustrated with Bill I imagine it’s about the past 2 seasons primarily. Last years Patricia/Judge debacle had to have been troubling, assuming Bill assured Kraft that those guys were capable of building a successful O after McDaniels departure. And by all accounts Kraft was led to believe that this year’s squad was a playoff team. Obviously it’s been the exact opposite.
If they move on from Bill because they think he can't continue, then Vrabel is a good candidate. But if they move on from Bill because of Vrabel, I think that's a stretch. I also wouldn't trade anything of significant value to get Vrabel.
My point was that Vrabel has nothing in his history to suggest you'd want to make him the cornerstone of your franchise. If you move on from Bill it's to hire a front office guy to run the team and let him pick the coach. Moving on from Bill to hire an okay coach with limited success and then have him either take on a personnel role he has never done (or given any indication he could do) is dumb. If the GM is not the coach then he should be involved in if not the only person hiring the coach.
Well I get that people think that but do people really think that Brady was 6x better than Rodgers, 3x better than Manning/Elway, 50% better than Montana? Someone built, maintained, and coached those teams for 20 years. It's all Brady? All?
This seems a really unlikely scenario to me, as it entails (a) hiring Mayo before a GM has been chosen or (b) hiring Mayo and giving him the whole deal. Neither seem....optimal here, and whatever you might think of Kraft pere or fil as human beings, they are not idiots.
A while ago there was an article in The Athletic about Mayo and how impressive he is.
Mayo -- BB 2.0?
Some excerpts:
What they have is a man capable of leading a locker room of professional athletes and discussing investments with hedge-fund executives. Someone who hangs out with Harvard business professors, ballet composers and “Jeopardy!” winners in his free time. Someone who only five years ago was working with the board of a major healthcare company and still theorizes about how blockchain technology could solve the healthcare backlog.
“Some people, I don’t know what it is, have that it factor. And he’s got it,” said Brandon Spikes, a former teammate. “He makes everyone around him better. He’s a perfect human being. If I had a son, I’d want him to be just like Jerod Mayo.”
When Ninkovich didn’t understand something, he just asked Mayo, and Mayo always had the answer. “With his mind and the knowledge he has, it was just a given that he’d get into coaching because it’s teaching,” Ninkovich said. “As far as on-field quickness, he is the smartest guy that I had ever been around. His ability to decipher formations and bark out calls and get people lined up — he was by far the fastest and best that I’ve ever been around.”
I'm on team BB (though I'd like him to get some drafting and O help), but I'd take Mayo next. I assume he'd have Steve Belichick as his D coordinator and then pull in a good O coordinator. That and some good drafting guru, and the Pats would be on the rise.
Vrabel I don't know about -- though one plus is that he's shown he can win in Miami with a shitty team.
Mayo -- BB 2.0?
Some excerpts:
What they have is a man capable of leading a locker room of professional athletes and discussing investments with hedge-fund executives. Someone who hangs out with Harvard business professors, ballet composers and “Jeopardy!” winners in his free time. Someone who only five years ago was working with the board of a major healthcare company and still theorizes about how blockchain technology could solve the healthcare backlog.
“Some people, I don’t know what it is, have that it factor. And he’s got it,” said Brandon Spikes, a former teammate. “He makes everyone around him better. He’s a perfect human being. If I had a son, I’d want him to be just like Jerod Mayo.”
When Ninkovich didn’t understand something, he just asked Mayo, and Mayo always had the answer. “With his mind and the knowledge he has, it was just a given that he’d get into coaching because it’s teaching,” Ninkovich said. “As far as on-field quickness, he is the smartest guy that I had ever been around. His ability to decipher formations and bark out calls and get people lined up — he was by far the fastest and best that I’ve ever been around.”
I'm on team BB (though I'd like him to get some drafting and O help), but I'd take Mayo next. I assume he'd have Steve Belichick as his D coordinator and then pull in a good O coordinator. That and some good drafting guru, and the Pats would be on the rise.
Vrabel I don't know about -- though one plus is that he's shown he can win in Miami with a shitty team.
The next guy is not going to be as good as Belichick has been over the course of the last 20 years. I think all parties can stipulate to that. What we saw will never happen again, at least not in any of our lifetimes, and Bill was of course a huge part of that.
That's a different question than is the next guy going to be better or worse for the task of rebuilding the current team with a heavy emphasis on rebuilding the offense, over the next 3 - 5 years. That's a tougher question to answer because Bill's recent history in building a roster on offense is bad, he's 71 and not getting younger, and it sure looks like other teams are running a much more exciting and sophisticated system at this point in time (granted I am not an X's and O's guy so I could be wrong there).
That is not to say that the right thing to do is move on. But just because the next guy is pretty much guaranteed not to have the career that Bill had doesn't mean it isn't time to move on either.
As long as we’re talking Kraft and coaches, did we ever get the real story about Parcells before the Super Bowl? Like, it’s insane he’d practically ditch the team the week of the game, but he’s also a hyper competitive guy with a whole life in football who basically balked on an historic chance to win a championship with a second team? It just seems so strange I wonder what sort of behind the scenes frustrations there were, unless Parcells has a history of this stuff?
Parcells probably thought he could both look for a job with the J-E-T-S while preparing his team for the Super Bowl; hubris was nothing new to the Tuna. He left the Giants under bad terms, and was a factor in Belichick bolting the Jets after a day.
If Kraft has decided to keep Bill in place beyond this year then what are the downsides to him making a statement tomorrow to that effect? We know Bill hates distractions and false media narratives especially while prepping for a game (or, does he hate false media narratives? hmm). Kraft issued a public statement in strong defense of his coach and QB the moment their flight landed in AZ at the Super Bowl in midst of the deflategate fiasco.
But, I think I know the answer to my own question.
But, I think I know the answer to my own question.
Maybe Kraft got nervous that Zappe was gonna run the table and ruin our draft chances, so he decided to kill the team’s chemistry.
Obviously not all, but mostly, yes. And that's not to Bill's discredit, the QB just affects games more. I could easily flip this around and ask if Bill is really 3x better than Don Shula and Tom Landry?
I'm just going to take Shula because I don't have any real knowledge of Landry, but that's an easy question to answer. Yes.
Shula had Mario for 13 years, never won a Superbowl, and made only 3 AFCCGs. Shula had arguably the best QB in the game for 13 years and could not win the Superbowl. BB had Brady, but he sure won a lot.
I mean, *I* don’t think it’s all Brady. That’s ludicrous to me. But….there appear to be lots and lots of people coming to that conclusion.
I think every day that goes by without some kind of comment does make it incrementally more likely that there is a little fire to go with the smoke. Still not clear on how likely though.
If you polled this place in February 2020, I bet most of us would have split the credit close to 50-50. Now I'm closer to the 75-25 mark, personally. I mean, the guy went to another team and won again immediately.
Part of my opinion is based on what Brady did from a contract perspective. It's not just that he was this insanely great player that elevated so many players around him. It's that he also did it while maintaining a league average or lower salary cap hit, enabling the team to carry more depth. BB deserves a ton of credit for the game planning and roster building, but Brady also deserves some credit for the roster building from this perspective, because without his contracts, not all of it would have been possible.
Feels a LOT like late 2019 in that sense.
It would cost Kraft nothing to give Belichick the proverbial owner's "vote of confidence" to at least defuse the fire to some extent. Nothing wrong with saying "As you all know, Bill's track record has been nothing but unparalleled success here in New England. We had a great win last week in Pittsburgh, and are looking forward to our matchup with the Chiefs on Sunday. While disappointing we will not make the playoffs, I am confident we will finish the season strong and work hard in the offseason to get back to the excellence our fans rightfully expect.".
Does it change the likely outcome? Not really. But Belichick does deserve better than to be left answering questions about his future every day this week. Yes, Volin and Curran would complain, but so what. Kraft would still be free to whatever he wants once the season ends.
Someone explain the Mike Vrabel love to me. He may run an even more antiquated style offense than what we've seen in New England, and hes always been very defensive focused. If people are complaining about the job BB has done on the offense, I'd love to know how Vrabel is the solution.
Yes, and? I wasn't saying he should fire him in 2018, I was saying that Kraft reportedly had some issues starting back in 2017, so I just went back to that time frame.
I think folks wanting to keep BB have a completely valid argument--his history gives him that rope. Fine. But I also think that deciding that it is time is valid as well. I don't think either side is "wrong". I just happen to come down on the side that thinks it's time to make a change--at the very least with the GM, but since it doesn't seem like that is possible, it's gotta be both. Additionally, it's possible BB wants to move on. If the record is important to him, he might know a rebuild here is gonna hamper that.
We did a poll here 6 or so weeks ago and only 35% of the voters think BB should be back as GM/HC. I voted for new GM, keep BB as coach. I wonder what a new poll would show---one that asks what WILL happen and one that asks what SHOULD.
Same here. Vrabel hasn’t really won anything. If we’re gonna turn to a defensive coach why not just Mayo?
Shula lived long off of the success of his early 70's Dolphins teams. After their 2nd consecutive Super Bowl victory (for which Shula does deserve accolades), Miami would wait 9 years for its next playoff win, losing playoff games coached by John Madden, Bum Phillips, Chuck Noll, and Don Coryell.
They would make, and lose, the Super Bowl in that weird, strike shortened season, and again to Joe Montana in Marino's 2nd year. After the Dolphins loss to the Tony Eason led Patriots in the Squish the Fish game, Shula's teams would miss the playoffs entirely in 6 of his remaining 10 seasons as coach, and go 3-4 when they did make the playoffs. So, yes, Belichick >>>> Shula when it comes to coaching ability.
I'll pass on comparing Bill to Landry, as it's a bit like comparing LeBron to George Mikan.
While I agree that the Vrabel love seems misplaced, I have to question whether the head coach's background (i.e., offense vs defense) actually matters. Coaches with defensive backgrounds can and will hire offensive coordinators to help on that side of the ball. Offense-oriented coaches will hire experienced defensive coordinators. I know there is a trend right now of head coaches with backgrounds in offense having success. 7 of 8 of the top teams [Miami, KC, Jaguars, SF, Dallas, Philly, Lions, with the Harbaugh being the outlier] have former offensive coaches. But that seems more like statistical noise than an actual effect. New England's offense would look a lot more innovative with different players.
They did add some notable guys:
- Most prominently Eliot Wolf, Director of Scouting in 2020, had been AGM in Cleveland and Director of Football Ops and Director of Player Personnel in Green Bay.
- Matt Evans, National Scout in 2021, had been with Washington for seven years previously
- Tony Kinkela, National Scout in 2022, had been with Tampa Bay the 13 seasons prior
- Patrick Stewart, Senior Personnel Advisor in 2023, had been in NE previously and then worked with the Eagles and Panthers in senior roles
Just wanted to point out that this is year 5 without a playoff win for the Pats. Doesn't seem very likely that they'll win one next year either. How long will the Pats let BB live off the success of the dynasty?
He gets credit for taking some fairly no-name teams to the playoffs and having risky moves pay off spectacularly, like benching Mariota in favor of Tannehill and re-orienting the offense around Henry, who up till that point was still sharing carries with DeMarco Murray. Toss in a somewhat shaky ownership situation for the Titans and it looks like a coach succeeding in the face of some serious headwinds.
This is what I keep coming back to. It's not just 1 or 2 down years. It has been going steadily downhill ever since the second half of the 2019 season. The Patriots have a record of 30-40 in that span with 1 playoff appearance and 0 wins. Any other coach would have been fired by now. With the season they're having, zero coaches would survive this. Why are some extending more of a benefit of the doubt to Bill now when the overwhelming evidence shows that a change is needed?
The Pats didn't win a playoff game in 2008, 2009, or 2010 - two of those years they had Tom Brady. So BB has been through a playoff win drought before with this organization. Not this long, but still.
Their regular season record for those 3 years was 35-13. They also had a bye one of those years, which while not a playoff win, is advancing.
Is it really that absurd for me to believe a great QB impacts wins and losses more than a great coach? How would you divide up the merit for KC's run? Because I think that's mostly Mahomes as well.
It really hasn't been going steadily downhill since 2019. 2020 was down, 2021 was up again and by any reasonable standards a good season (10-7, +159 points difference, made playoffs), 2022 was down again to about average (8-9, +17 points difference), 2023 has been bad. The downhill period here is 2 years. But OK, lets take the whole 4 year period as being the down sample (I'm going to exclude 2019 for simplicity).
Consider this viewpoint - if you went to the fanbases of all the other 31 franchises right now and said you win the superbowl this year, but the following 4 years you go 28-35 with only one playoff appearance and no wins - how many of those fanbases turn that down? I guess a few might gamble they're going to win anyway and be better after that (KC for example). But I'd say most fanbases would rip your arm off at that offer. (We would, right?) Heck, some fanbases might think 28-35 looks pretty good without needing the superbowl thrown in...
So here we are ready to throw Bill under the bus for a period of underperformance that combined with one superbowl win (and ignoring a 12-4 season in between to keep things simple) would seem too good to turn down for most fanbases (IMO).
Which would seem to me to be a bit nuts even ignoring the fact that we are cherry-picking the start date of this period to exclude two other superbowl wins, and one other superbowl appearance in the preceeding 4 years.
Of course we would all make that trade. But the 4 years are up, and the question is what do the NEXT 4 years look like? Another ~28 wins? At what point don't you make that trade?
It's all about future projected performance. Of course if you can guarantee me a Super Bowl I'd take your deal, but that's not reality. What are the odds Bill can put this team on that track again in the near future and why should 2018 weigh more heavily in that calculus than 2023? That's the real question. Even if you subscribe to the Bill Simmons "5 year grace period after a title" theory, we're finishing year 5 right now. Then what?
What about the start period did I cherry pick? It's pretty obvious that the period is from collapse in the 2nd half of the '19 season and the post-Brady era.
Leading up to Brady's exit, Bill had poor draft results for a 5 year stretch. In 2014, they wasted a 1st rounder on Dominque Easley but hit on Jimmy G, Stork, and James White. In 2015, they got a serviceable rotational DT in Malcom Brown in the 1st but only got Tre' Flowers and Shaq Mason(and Joe Cardona but let's be honest it's a LS) out of that draft. 2016 they hit on Joe Thuney and Brissett/Roberts/Karras were serviceable but Thuney was the only impactful player. 2017 was a disaster with only Wise being useful. 2018 was the Wynn and Michel in the 1st(yuck), picking Duke Dawson in the 2nd round(big yuck). They did get Bentley out of that draft, but that's mostly a bad draft. 2019 was the N'Keal Harry/Joejuan Williams/Chase Winovich Day 1 and Day 2 haul(yuck). Damien Harris was the only hit. 2020 you had Dugger and Onwenu who have been good and Jennings has come on this year, but Devin Asiasi/Dalton Keene/Justin Rohrwasser were complete misses. Josh Uche has been a disappointment.
Because of all the draft misses, Bill had to spend a ton in free agency to try to cover up all of his mistakes in the draft. He hit on Matt Judon and Hunter Henry/Kendrick Bourne have been serviceable, but lit money on fire and gave it to Jonnu Smith/Nelson Agholor. Jalen Mills has been a disappointment too.
Going back to the draft after 2020, he screwed up Mac Jones. That is the biggest indictment on whether to keep Bill long term. If they finish in the top 2 and draft a QB that high, how can you trust him to handle the biggest investment they've had in decades? Barmore looks like a keeper and Rham has been good. 2022, again a questionable 1st round pick in Cole Strange, they completely whiffed on Tyquan Thortnon , Jack Jones, and Pierre Strong. 2023 actually looks like a decent draft with Gonzalez/White/Sow/Baringer/Douglas looking like long-term contributors.
Given that they're going to have at least a top-5 pick and a ton of cap space, I don't have faith that Belichick is the guy that should be heading this up moving forward. I'm not as smart at the evaluation processes or the scouting process as a guy like @SMU_Sox is, but what I do know is that things have to change.The days of having a competent enough offense and an elite defense and having that be enough to win a Super Bowl are over.
Nobody here seems to be pounding the table for Vrabel but given how he was received at the Pats HOF visit it led some of the team writers to speculate that the Krafts have a bid for him. That's the extent of the discussion I have seen here. However there is nobody to explain this to you here because nobody here is advocating for his hire - just speculating about whether the Krafts interest is legit or not.
And I would argue it was only true for the 2003 Patriots anyway. Even the 2001 team had the 6th best offensive EPA/Play in the league after Brady took over. For every other title their offense ranged from really good to exceptional.
One thing that's worth re-emphasizing IMHO is that they were LUCKY in a big way last year, and I think unlucky this year. They were 3rd in takeaways in 2022 and got 8 return TDs including 5 pick-6s. This year I don't think the defense is much worse and they have only 12 takeaways (29th) and 0 return TDs. That's a 56-point swing just on returns (assuming a PAT each time). There is some skill in generating turnovers, but I think a lot of randomness in that and even more in whether or not those get returned for a score.
People have also gone over the quality of opposing QBs they have faced, though I think they have gotten more or less similar luck this year.
I think that both teams were more like 5-6 win quality in their underlying performance. So yeah they "just missed" the playoffs last year but that team was honestly not much better than this one. That doesn't matter since the games are what counts, except that BB would be tougher to defend if they had gone 6-11 two years in a row than if you say "Well he just has one really bad year."
People have also gone over the quality of opposing QBs they have faced, though I think they have gotten more or less similar luck this year.
I think that both teams were more like 5-6 win quality in their underlying performance. So yeah they "just missed" the playoffs last year but that team was honestly not much better than this one. That doesn't matter since the games are what counts, except that BB would be tougher to defend if they had gone 6-11 two years in a row than if you say "Well he just has one really bad year."
Those are really really not bad drafts, if you think that you don't pay any attention to the draft.
2014- Getting a starting caliber QB, A starting caliber IOL, a solid swing T, and an excellent RB out of a draft is a win.
2015- 7 year starter at DT, good passrusher, All-Pro guard, long term specialist (9 seasons)
2016- One of the best Gs in the league, solid backup QB, starter caliber OL, starter caliber LB (also a good WR, but injuries man).
2017- Not many picks since they traded for Cooks, but a good solid rotation DE... this is the first not good draft.
2018- This draft isn't great, in part due to injury to Wynn
2014-2016 is average or better return for the picks they had. 2017 is a tough eval since they had only later picks, and how you factor in a top end WR....
2018 awas not great.
Great point. 6-11, 6-11 looks worse than 8-9, 4-14.
He said the last 5 have been particularly bad. Not the last 10.
That said, it’s been way more bad than good since 2012. That’s a long time.
Dont forget the Will Mcdonough connection
Parcells was tight with McDonough. I dont think McD was tight with Kraft. I am confident that Will blessed the move & got the exclusive.
Pats DVOA
2020 -2.7% 17th (7.7 estimated wins)
2021 16% 8th (9.3 estimated wins)
2022 -1.2% 16th (8.3 estimated wins)
2023 -15.4% 26th (4.4 estimated wins)
So what if the record the last two years was 8.3-8.7, 4.4-8.6? That looks better, no?
By DVOA they've been no worse this year than they were good in 2021! I know this is hard to believe for some people, but them's the numbers folks.
Here's the Pats rank in Turnover/Giveaway ratio since 2000 (so how well they've done generating turnovers vs giving them up)
(2000) 18th - 9th - 10th - 2nd - 8th - 20th - 4th - 3rd - 15th - 8th - 1st - 3rd - 1st - 8th - 2nd - 5th - 3rd - 11th - 5th - 1st - 13th - 8th - 4th (2022)
(2023) 30th
One of the seasons is not like the others. And this isn't just a Brady thing - they've been good on this metric since he left too.
So yeah, luck is a huge factor here, but there's a pretty decent chance that Bill has essentially been doing what he's always been doing and this year he's been unlucky. Perhaps the one difference is that this year he happens to simultaneously have a defense that, while playing well, isn't generating TOs and a QB who has suddenly started giving them up at a much higher rate (Macs Int%+ the last 3 years - 95, 96 (so slightly worse than average), 72).
You still sure you he can't fix this and you want him gone?
Of course it is. But without the "bad" period, no-one is questioning the future at all. And the "bad" period, if you don't cut off the bits where the Pats were winning, is still a period most teams would sign up for.
I mean, maybe it really was just a Brady thing. But maybe it wasn't. If it wasn't, firing Bill could be a HUGE mistake. If it was, then what? We go into next year without a front office/coaching advantage, most likely just like we would do if we bring in whoever we bring in. The penalty here for keeping Bill on and being wrong is way larger than the penalty for firing him because Mac Jones has thrown some inexplicable passes at critical moments. The next guy ain't gonna have Tom Brady or a crystal ball either.
Missing Hightower in 2012.
2013-present 126 total AV on 7 guys (excl. Gonzalez), or 18 per player.
2001-2012 709 AV on 12 guys, or 59 per player (will go higher when you add Hightower).
Edit: Hightower's 76 brings the total to 785 on 13 guys, or 60 per player.
The drafting has been a mess for 10 years.
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