This is now: BB and the direction of the Patriots

[Ralphwiggum]

First I think a head coach of an NFL team is going to have a slightly different personality than your average CEO. He still gets out there and blows the whistle and yells at the players and makes them run hills and all of that stuff. I always hate the "this wouldn't fly in my office" comparisons to how professional sports franchises are run. In most cases they are just completely different animals. Yes if my boss came over to my desk and blew a whistle in my face and said "Oh, I can't stand it Brady, run that TPS report again" in front of the whole office, I wouldn't like that.

Bill has admitted himself that he's a hard coach to play for. I don't think that necessarily means he's dismissive or an arrogant asshole, just that he holds players and coaches accountable for their performance in a way that is probably more uncomfortable than most NFL players (and maybe coaches) are used to. I think there is plenty of evidence that BB, while maybe not the most warm and friendly guy, does not display the same persona with the team that he displays with the media.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Chalk would have been Pickens over Tyquan by about 3 rounds. Chalk would have been not trading up in the 4th for a K when the team was riddled with holes at virtually every position on offense. I think generally Bill has an above average record in the 1st, but the middle rounds have been not great, especially on the offensive side of the ball and he recovers significantly late in the draft and with UDFAs. The fact they haven't drafted an impact WR in the 1st - 5th rounds since 2002 can't be lost in the draft discussion. It is a blinding weakness anyway you cut it. When the best WRs you draft are converted college QBs it tells me the process is largely broken whether that is scouting or Bill overriding scouts I don't know but the results speak for themselves, they are the worst in the NFL by a significant margin when it comes to drafting WRs.

I do think a lot of it stems from Bill not valuing the position nearly as much as the rest of the NFL instead opting for an offense lead by 2 TE and slot WRs which was obviously very effective for a period of time but I think the NFL adapted to that offense quicker than Bill realized by simply taking away the middle of the field and WR heavy offenses now dominate the NFL and he is left with the equivalent of a bend but don't break offense which more often than not breaks because it lacks any big play ability.

The WR thing is as many have noted heavily based on volume, WRs bust.... a lot. (See new friend Raegor), the Patriots just did not for a long time use premium picks on WRs.
So looking at WRs:
2023- no premium picks, two mid/late rounders, one at least looks like a major hit.
2022- Thornton... not looking good reached and missed (seemed a clear case of looking for a particular skillset and missing, curious what happens if Watson is on the board, Pickens was likely never a consideration, they wanted an elite speed deep threat who separates, Pickens is Davante Parker 2.0 in that regard).
2021- N/A
2020- N/A
2019- Harry.... missed on this one going chalk.
2018- Berrios in the 6th... cut him didn't have roster spots, became a ST and rotation WR in NY.
2017- N/A
2016- no premium, Malcolm Mitchell in the 4th... good rookie year, including a very good SB... leg fell off, career over.
2015- N/A
2014- N/A

They took all of 6 WRs in 10 years (2 last year, so 4 in the previous 9 years), only 2 with premium picks, no top 30 picks.

Compare that to say the Eagles, generally considered a good drafting team....
2023-N/A
2022- N/A
2021- Smith (top 10)
2020-Reagor/Hightower/Watkins... Watkins deep depth guy, Reagor top 25 bust
2019- Arcega-Whiteside 2nd round bust
2018- N/A
2017- two mid/late picks, Hollins is kinda Berrios, cut and a depth WR elsewhere
2016- N/A
2015- Agholor top 20 bust
2014- Matthews in the 2nd was a usefull guy nothing special, 3rd round did nothing.

10 WRs, 5 premium picks, a top 10 and a couple top 20ish. both late 1sts were busts.

 

[tims4wins]

The WR thing is as many have noted heavily based on volume, WRs bust.... a lot. (See new friend Raegor), the Patriots just did not for a long time use premium picks on WRs.
So looking at WRs:
2023- no premium picks, two mid/late rounders, one at least looks like a major hit.
2022- Thornton... not looking good reached and missed (seemed a clear case of looking for a particular skillset and missing, curious what happens if Watson is on the board, Pickens was likely never a consideration, they wanted an elite speed deep threat who separates, Pickens is Davante Parker 2.0 in that regard).
2021- N/A
2020- N/A
2019- Harry.... missed on this one going chalk.
2018- Berrios in the 6th... cut him didn't have roster spots, became a ST and rotation WR in NY.
2017- N/A
2016- no premium, Malcolm Mitchell in the 4th... good rookie year, including a very good SB... leg fell off, career over.
2015- N/A
2014- N/A

They took all of 6 WRs in 10 years (2 last year, so 4 in the previous 9 years), only 2 with premium picks, no top 30 picks.

Compare that to say the Eagles, generally considered a good drafting team....
2023-N/A
2022- N/A
2021- Smith (top 10)
2020-Reagor/Hightower/Watkins... Watkins deep depth guy, Reagor top 25 bust
2019- Arcega-Whiteside 2nd round bust
2018- N/A
2017- two mid/late picks, Hollins is kinda Berrios, cut and a depth WR elsewhere
2016- N/A
2015- Agholor top 20 bust
2014- Matthews in the 2nd was a usefull guy nothing special, 3rd round did nothing.

10 WRs, 5 premium picks, a top 10 and a couple top 20ish. both late 1sts were busts.

Ignoring the position is the problem, we all agree. But that in itself seems to be a problem.

Also, it's not remotely fair to compare Agholor as a bust to Harry. Agholor has 370 catches. He has multiple seasons with as many catches as Harry has in his entire career. He's a bust in the same sense that Sony Michel or whatever is a bust.

 

[Harry Hooper]

Bill has admitted himself that he's a hard coach to play for. I don't think that necessarily means he's dismissive or an arrogant asshole, just that he holds players and coaches accountable for their performance in a way that is probably more uncomfortable than most NFL players (and maybe coaches) are used to. I think there is plenty of evidence that BB, while maybe not the most warm and friendly guy, does not display the same persona with the team that he displays with the media.

I recall BB joking with the players on the field about buying a new Volvo (?) if the player set up a car dealership



Mayo on young players and accountability in Giardi's latest story on BSJ this morning on Mayo:

Of the many criticisms I've had of Belichick, one is surrounding himself with voices beholden to him in some way, shape, or form. Be it sons on the coaching staff or an ex-colleagues's kid in the front office (Matt Groh), loyalists like Joe Judge or Matt Patricia (a year ago, on cheap deals because they were being paid elsewhere), or even hiring his first-ever draft pick in New England, Adrian Klemm, to coach the offensive line when his first go-round in the NFL led to a quick flameout.

"I would say, even with this locker room now, at least defensively, those guys want transparency, and they also appreciate when you're honest with them," said Mayo. "At this level, there are a lot of yes-men and yes-women around ... from a coach's perspective, our job is to put a mirror in front of your face and really show what you're doing on the field, and hopefully, you can take that out of love ... that's the way I coach.

"Once you build that relationship with a guy, you can be tough on the players. But if you don't have that - I always talk about warmth before confidence. Like at this stage, it was a little different back when I played, like whatever the coach tells you to do, you just go out and do it. This generation is a little bit different where they really want to have accountability, they want to understand the why, and my job is to go out there and tell them what I see on the sideline."

 

[Buck Showalter]

Chalk would have been Pickens over Tyquan by about 3 rounds. Chalk would have been not trading up in the 4th for a K when the team was riddled with holes at virtually every position on offense. I think generally Bill has an above average record in the 1st, but the middle rounds have been not great, especially on the offensive side of the ball and he recovers significantly late in the draft and with UDFAs. The fact they haven't drafted an impact WR in the 1st - 5th rounds since 2002 can't be lost in the draft discussion. It is a blinding weakness anyway you cut it. When the best WRs you draft are converted college QBs it tells me the process is largely broken whether that is scouting or Bill overriding scouts I don't know but the results speak for themselves, they are the worst in the NFL by a significant margin when it comes to drafting WRs.

I do think a lot of it stems from Bill not valuing the position nearly as much as the rest of the NFL instead opting for an offense lead by 2 TE and slot WRs which was obviously very effective for a period of time but I think the NFL adapted to that offense quicker than Bill realized by simply taking away the middle of the field and WR heavy offenses now dominate the NFL and he is left with the equivalent of a bend but don't break offense which more often than not breaks because it lacks any big play ability.

Count me in as a BB loyalist to the very end --- but boy, this is a great post that hits it on the head.

 

[Garshaparra]

I do think a lot of it stems from Bill not valuing the position nearly as much as the rest of the NFL instead opting for an offense lead by 2 TE and slot WRs which was obviously very effective for a period of time but I think the NFL adapted to that offense quicker than Bill realized by simply taking away the middle of the field and WR heavy offenses now dominate the NFL and he is left with the equivalent of a bend but don't break offense which more often than not breaks because it lacks any big play ability.

Except he didn't draft slot WRs or TEs either. He took the big bite in 2020 for both 3rd round TEs, and then pivoted to get Henry and Jonnu when that didn't work at all, but those were the only premium picks BB spent on the TE position since Gronk/Voldemort. The Cam season was most egregious, with every TE rolled out either injured or ineffective for the entire year, in an offense that needed guys who had solid mobility blocking skills and good hands.

On the defensive side, he's understood how to make this work. CBs and LBs getting too pricy? Go Big Nickel, as it was both rotationally more effective and less expensive. But offensively, it hasn't for several seasons.

 

[lexrageorge]

I wonder what BB the CEOs personality is like vs what we see in press conferences. I usually find his communication in press conferences sometimes amusing, but if my boss spoke to me like that when I asked him questions it would be a horrific place to work. He’s so arrogant and dismissive in press conferences, it would make for an incredibly toxic work environment if that’s how he was with his staff. Again, not at all saying we can make that correlation as it’s quite different, but I’d be willing to bet that at least some of that dismissiveness is evident with his staff. It’s hard to turn that completely on and off. Someone I know did have a chance to meet BB once and they told me in that one interaction he was as you would expect given his personality displayed in press conferences (this was not a press conference, just a random interaction with BB where he acted like the jerk you might expect).

It is for this very reason why we should be all rooting for Belichick to stay, as Hard Knocks will give a much better view of the inner workings of a football team than the highly edited Football Life segment ever could. I may be in the minority, but more than happy to see another year of Bill if it means we get to see those peaks behind the curtain that HBO provides, season results be damned.

As with anyone, I'm sure there's the public persona (what we see in press conferences), the working on the job persona (which many of us are curious about), the personal/family life persona (which, within reason, is none of anyone's business), and the "meet a random stranger" persona. It would not be at all surprising if the last one was little different than his press conference persona.

There's also the fact that NFL coaches do indeed have a very different persona than nearly anyone we meet in real life.

 

[Salem's Lot]

There would be no way that I would want to move on from Belichick now if he was in his 50’s. However, the fact that he’s 72 years old (at the start of next season) means that he’s going to have to be replaced soon anyway. I just think it’s better to cut the cord now and try to find the next guy, instead of being in the same position 2 years from now when he decides he’d rather be on his boat at 75 years old instead of running a football team. If Belichick did everything right moving forward, this team is still 2/3 years away from competing. The timeline just doesn’t work out.

 

[Jimbodandy]

I wonder what BB the CEOs personality is like vs what we see in press conferences. I usually find his communication in press conferences sometimes amusing, but if my boss spoke to me like that when I asked him questions it would be a horrific place to work. He’s so arrogant and dismissive in press conferences, it would make for an incredibly toxic work environment if that’s how he was with his staff. Again, not at all saying we can make that correlation as it’s quite different, but I’d be willing to bet that at least some of that dismissiveness is evident with his staff. It’s hard to turn that completely on and off. Someone I know did have a chance to meet BB once and they told me in that one interaction he was as you would expect given his personality displayed in press conferences (this was not a press conference, just a random interaction with BB where he acted like the jerk you might expect).

Lots of jumping to conclusions here, backed by one piece of anecdotal data.

You can't make the correlation but will anyway? Some random interaction tells us little to nothing.

I have no idea what Belichick is like inside Gillette. I do know several players have said his personality is very different than what he shows to the public.

One of my neighbors did a bunch of work with the team and said that Bill is hilarious in person and a reasonable guy. One guy I worked with said that Bill hated his guts because he messed up some computer network or something once really badly. Sounds like Bill is a reasonable guy with standards, so don't fuck up. Or basically, a football coach.

 

[tims4wins]

There would be no way that I would want to move on from Belichick now if he was in his 50’s. However, the fact that he’s 72 years old (at the start of next season) means that he’s going to have to be replaced soon anyway. I just think it’s better to cut the cord now and try to find the next guy, instead of being in the same position 2 years from now when he decides he’d rather be on his boat at 75 years old instead of running a football team.

Let's kind of flip this around a little bit. What is the best possible outcome if Bill stays? To me, the best possible outcome is that they find long-term solutions at QB, WR, and T in this draft, BB coaches them up for a couple years, and then he hands the keys to the car to someone else (successfully) and the Pats prosper for the next decace.

But a) that assumes a successful handoff and more importantly b) it hinges on a successful draft this year. And if we don't have confidence that BB can successfully draft offensive players (or will even draft offensive players), then I think it's pretty clearly time to move on. Either way the Pats are going to have a new HC and GM come ~2027. I'd rather not go through another 2020-2023 cycle for the next 3-4 years just to keep BB. YMMV.

 

[NomarsFool]

Lots of jumping to conclusions here, backed by one piece of anecdotal data.

No, it's not based on that. BB is a complete jerk in all of the interactions we see as fans (of course limited sample) and has been for >20 years. Maybe he's able to turn off the arrogance and dismissiveness when not talking to the media, maybe not. We've seen many, many examples of his stubbornness when it comes to managing people. It's no question he has been a terrific X-Os football coach, especially on the defensive side. Football talent evaluation - probably middle of the road, with an apparent weakness on the offensive side. Just not sure he's really that great as CEO of the Patriot football organization.

 

[Cellar-Door]

No, it's not based on that. BB is a complete jerk in all of the interactions we see as fans (of course limited sample) and has been for >20 years. Maybe he's able to turn off the arrogance and dismissiveness when not talking to the media, maybe not. We've seen many, many examples of his stubbornness when it comes to managing people. It's no question he has been a terrific X-Os football coach, especially on the defensive side. Football talent evaluation - probably middle of the road, with an apparent weakness on the offensive side. Just not sure he's really that great as CEO of the Patriot football organization.

Except he's not. He's perhaps often a jerk in one particular type of interaction (answering PC questions, though not always), but we've seen plenty of interactions where he is not a jerk, such as a few documentaries, sideline footage, appearances with other coaches etc. It's like if you said "Marshawn Lynch is a complete jerk in all interactions" based on his not wanting to do press conferences and answer questions, when he's one of the most personable guys in the world outside of that.

 

[Silverdude2167]

No, it's not based on that. BB is a complete jerk in all of the interactions we see as fans (of course limited sample) and has been for >20 years. Maybe he's able to turn off the arrogance and dismissiveness when not talking to the media, maybe not. We've seen many, many examples of his stubbornness when it comes to managing people. It's no question he has been a terrific X-Os football coach, especially on the defensive side. Football talent evaluation - probably middle of the road, with an apparent weakness on the offensive side. Just not sure he's really that great as CEO of the Patriot football organization.

Bill is maybe the best example of a person from Mass that I have ever seen.

He does not suffer fools and the media is almost always fools. Not sure why a board made up of people I am guessing are mostly from New England would take umbrage with this approach.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Or he doesn’t want someone who has been horrendous at drafting for the better part of the past 10 years not picking the groceries either.

10 years is pretty strong, but if you want to say since about 2018 I'm there with you.

 

[RedOctober3829]

10 years? Really? I guess the following don't count:

Jamie Collins
Logan Ryan
Duran Harmon
Jimmy G
Bryan Stork
James White
Trey Flowers
Shaq Mason
Joe Thuney
Malcolm Mitchell
Deatrich Wise
Kyle Dugger
Josh Uche
Christian Gonzalez
Christian Barmore
Rham Stevenson

And bringing in via trade or free agency such notable busts as Darelle Revis, Chris Hogan, Brandon LaFell, Jonathan Jones, Kyle Van Noy, Stephon Gilmore, Malcolm Butler, and so on and so on.....

That list is full of role players at best. The only foundational players on that list are Joe Thuney, Shaq Mason, and possibly Christian Barmore and Christian Gonzalez. Stevenson has been a nice player. So was Tre Flowers. But if you want to use this list as some sort of gotcha regarding BB's drafting then it's not doing what you think it's doing.

 

[Silverdude2167]

That list is full of role players at best. The only foundational players on that list are Joe Thuney, Shaq Mason, and possibly Christian Barmore and Christian Gonzalez. Stevenson has been a nice player. So was Tre Flowers. But if you want to use this list as some sort of gotcha regarding BB's drafting then it's not doing what you think it's doing.

How many foundational players do you think teams draft per year and when talking about the Pats the highest pick on that list is 15 (the reason this thread exists).

 

[Cellar-Door]

That list is full of role players at best. The only foundational players on that list are Joe Thuney, Shaq Mason, and possibly Christian Barmore and Christian Gonzalez. Stevenson has been a nice player. So was Tre Flowers. But if you want to use this list as some sort of gotcha regarding BB's drafting then it's not doing what you think it's doing.

I mean... how many "foundational" players do most teams draft once you eliminate picks in the top 20? And what is your definition of "foundational" it appears you mean.... All-Pro consideration.... not a lot of those.

Every discussion we have about Bill's drafting makes it more clear that a lot of this board doesn't pay any attention to the NFL as a whole, or just has a wildly skewed vision of the Patriots' talent versus other teams... The Patriots drafted a whole lot of starters on contenders late in rounds over the last decade, they also drafted a whole bunch of starters on borderline playoff teams.... that's par for the course in the NFL.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

The best offensive skill position players the Pats have drafted in the past decade are James White, Jakobi Meyers, and Mac Jones (based on pro football reference approximate value). That’s not great, esp when they haven’t done well at acquiring offensive talent via FA. The last ten years of player acquisition haven’t gotten nearly as well as the ten before (a high bar to clear, of course- but it’s not particularly close).

 

[RedOctober3829]

Let's kind of flip this around a little bit. What is the best possible outcome if Bill stays? To me, the best possible outcome is that they find long-term solutions at QB, WR, and T in this draft, BB coaches them up for a couple years, and then he hands the keys to the car to someone else (successfully) and the Pats prosper for the next decace.

But a) that assumes a successful handoff and more importantly b) it hinges on a successful draft this year. And if we don't have confidence that BB can successfully draft offensive players (or will even draft offensive players), then I think it's pretty clearly time to move on. Either way the Pats are going to have a new HC and GM come ~2027. I'd rather not go through another 2020-2023 cycle for the next 3-4 years just to keep BB. YMMV.

The last time Belichick was given a ton of cap room and a chance to pick the next franchise QB he pretty much lit the money on fire and did not even come close to hitting on the next QB. A good amount of people on this board want to cling to the past like it's some harbinger of what to expect in the future. The overall state of the roster has decayed since 2018. If you look at the current roster and pick out how many players are guaranteed a spot on next year's team what do you come up with? I'd say 15-20 guys at most. If this was any other coach and we had to evaluate the last 4-5 years of how the HC and front office have done we'd all be in agreement that it's time to move on. I am a Bill guy as much as anyone, but I recognize that it's just time.

 

[RedOctober3829]

I mean... how many "foundational" players do most teams draft once you eliminate picks in the top 20? And what is your definition of "foundational" it appears you mean.... All-Pro consideration.... not a lot of those.

Every discussion we have about Bill's drafting makes it more clear that a lot of this board doesn't pay any attention to the NFL as a whole, or just has a wildly skewed vision of the Patriots' talent versus other teams... The Patriots drafted a whole lot of starters on contenders late in rounds over the last decade, they also drafted a whole bunch of starters on borderline playoff teams.... that's par for the course in the NFL.

It doesn't take a brain surgeon to see the state of the roster especially on the offensive side of the ball to say that his draft record has not been good in the last 4-5 years.

 

[Cellar-Door]

The best offensive skill position players the Pats have drafted in the past decade are James White, Jakobi Meyers, and Mac Jones. That’s not great.

Also Jimmy G, Brissett and Sony Michel.

It's far more about how they prioritize things than being bad at skill position drafting. They chose for many years to use the draft for other positions because they had the best QB and best TE of all time (both drafted) and traded for WRs more than drafted (though they had Edelman for most of that time.... who they drafted).

 

[Cellar-Door]

It doesn't take a brain surgeon to see the state of the roster especially on the offensive side of the ball to say that his draft record has not been good in the last 4-5 years.

I mean... there are good and bad drafts in there. Anybody gauging on 2 or 3 drafts in a short period as predictive isn't a serious person, especially when a good chunk of the players are only 1-2 seasons in.
Honestly I think their FA signings are a bigger concern, they focused on offense and got a lot of okay but not great guys.

Though as always.... missing on the QB makes a huge difference. If Mac was a top QB this offense probably looks mostly fine.

 

[Silverdude2167]

The last time Belichick was given a ton of cap room and a chance to pick the next franchise QB he pretty much lit the money on fire and did not even come close to hitting on the next QB. A good amount of people on this board want to cling to the past like it's some harbinger of what to expect in the future. The overall state of the roster has decayed since 2018. If you look at the current roster and pick out how many players are guaranteed a spot on next year's team what do you come up with? I'd say 15-20 guys at most. If this was any other coach and we had to evaluate the last 4-5 years of how the HC and front office have done we'd all be in agreement that it's time to move on. I am a Bill guy as much as anyone, but I recognize that it's just time.

The question to your draft and cap space point is...what would you have done instead?

The Pats had the money and got the best players available, who did you want them to sign instead?

Also were you complaining about drafting Mac at 15? No one here or in the media was, so it seems a bit unfair to now say he failed picking the next franchise quarter back from a class that now seems to have 4 busts and 1 hit...

 

[Pmoose82]

First I think a head coach of an NFL team is going to have a slightly different personality than your average CEO. He still gets out there and blows the whistle and yells at the players and makes them run hills and all of that stuff. I always hate the "this wouldn't fly in my office" comparisons to how professional sports franchises are run. In most cases they are just completely different animals. Yes if my boss came over to my desk and blew a whistle in my face and said "Oh, I can't stand it Brady, run that TPS report again" in front of the whole office, I wouldn't like that.

Bill has admitted himself that he's a hard coach to play for. I don't think that necessarily means he's dismissive or an arrogant asshole, just that he holds players and coaches accountable for their performance in a way that is probably more uncomfortable than most NFL players (and maybe coaches) are used to. I think there is plenty of evidence that BB, while maybe not the most warm and friendly guy, does not display the same persona with the team that he displays with the media.

IMO, a sign that the players like playing for BB is that you almost never hear any of them say a bad word about him after they've left the Patriots. Off the top of my head, I can only think of Ted Johnson and Asante Samuel being negative about him.

 

[Cellar-Door]

The question to your draft and cap space point is...what would you have done instead?

The Pats had the money and got the best players available, who did you want them to sign instead?

Also were you complaining about drafting Mac at 15? No one here or in the media was, so it seems a bit unfair to now say he failed picking the next franchise quarter back from a class that now seems to have 4 busts and 1 hit...

The big thing to me is..... did they even really miss? The plan was to add a completely new offensive skill group to make it easy on the rookie QB... they added a deep threat, they added some YAC guys, they added security blanket TE...... and honestly it worked, they made the playoffs with Mac. Now was it perfect... nope, the TEs never really fit together, and Mac couldn't effectively use the deep threat.

On the other hand, they got a pro-bowl defender, Henry and Bourne were both good players, and basically nobody was long term bad salary since they loaded it all up in the first couple years so they would have space again in 2024. For all the whining about a few of the guys, after 2021 there was a lot of optimism about the offense, which was a bit above league average. Of course it didn't last for various reasons, but the 2021 FA class went about as well as you could expect short term. Now in retrospect, maybe they should have made Thuney the highest paid guard in league history (if he'd even have accepted it, he went to the SB favorites) but they did exactly what people want them to, they signed most of the best available skill players to help a young QB.

If they go into this offseason and signed Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman Jr, Dalton Schultz and Leonard Williams it would be similar. Might not work out, but you signed the best guys you could.

As to Mac... it was the pick they had to make. Didn't work out, but when you don't have a QB you have to take your shots when you're in position to draft one. If they pass on him what do they do? Start Cam or Stidham, then 2022 draft Pickett? That's the nature of QB, you don't have one you need to pick one, if you miss.... you pick another.

 

[Bongorific]

The big thing to me is..... did they even really miss? The plan was to add a completely new offensive skill group to make it easy on the rookie QB... they added a deep threat, they added some YAC guys, they added security blanket TE...... and honestly it worked, they made the playoffs with Mac. Now was it perfect... nope, the TEs never really fit together, and Mac couldn't effectively use the deep threat.

On the other hand, they got a pro-bowl defender, Henry and Bourne were both good players, and basically nobody was long term bad salary since they loaded it all up in the first couple years so they would have space again in 2024. For all the whining about a few of the guys, after 2021 there was a lot of optimism about the offense, which was a bit above league average. Of course it didn't last for various reasons, but the 2021 FA class went about as well as you could expect short term. Now in retrospect, maybe they should have made Thuney the highest paid guard in league history (if he'd even have accepted it, he went to the SB favorites) but they did exactly what people want them to, they signed most of the best available skill players to help a young QB.

If they go into this offseason and signed Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman Jr, Dalton Schultz and Leonard Williams it would be similar. Might not work out, but you signed the best guys you could.

As to Mac... it was the pick they had to make. Didn't work out, but when you don't have a QB you have to take your shots when you're in position to draft one. If they pass on him what do they do? Start Cam or Stidham, then 2022 draft Pickett? That's the nature of QB, you don't have one you need to pick one, if you miss.... you pick another.

Higgins and Pittman are light years better than Bourne/Agholor/Parker. If they signed Higgins and Pittman they have a top 8 receivers group in the league. Agholor and Parker, in particular, appeared to be bad signings at the time which turned out to be correct.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Higgins and Pittman are light years better than Bourne/Agholor/Parker. If they signed Higgins and Pittman they have a top 8 receivers group in the league. Agholor and Parker, in particular, appeared to be bad signings at the time which turned out to be correct.

Parker wasn't signed in 2021.
They signed....
The #1 TE, the #2 TE (Henry, Jonnu)
The #4 WR (Agholor behind Golladay, Davis and Samuel) and arguably the #5 WR (Bourne).

It was a weaker class than this year at WR, you shop what you can, and they did short deals to avoid the kind of long term bad committments that Davis and Golladay got.

 

[ehaz]

The only way they are getting Higgins or Pittman (let alone both) is a trade. They are both 100% getting the franchise tag.

 

[Cellar-Door]

The only way they are getting Higgins or Pittman (let alone both) is a trade. They are both 100% getting the franchise tag.

Yeah, I assume that, it was more pointing out top weapons.
The Patriots are either signing Evans or not signing a top skill player this offseason. As always... what's available is what's available

 

[johnmd20]

Also Jimmy G, Brissett and Sony Michel.

It's far more about how they prioritize things than being bad at skill position drafting. They chose for many years to use the draft for other positions because they had the best QB and best TE of all time (both drafted) and traded for WRs more than drafted (though they had Edelman for most of that time.... who they drafted).

Yeah, the peak is a career backup, a QB who rarely stayed healthy and had a couple of decent seasons, and a RB who had one good postseason.

Amazing.

People are trying so hard to prove Bill has bought the right groceries on offense since the end of Brady. But anyone with eyes looking at this offense knows the salad is wilted, the meat is overcooked, and the bread is as hard as a rock. There has not been a star on this offense since Grank/Brady. Look at the field!

 

[BigSoxFan]

Yeah, the peak is a career backup, a QB who rarely stayed healthy and had a couple of decent seasons, and a RB who had one good postseason.

Amazing.

People are trying so hard to prove Bill has bought the right groceries on offense since the end of Brady. But anyone with eyes looking at this offense knows the salad is wilted, the meat is overcooked, and the bread is as hard as a rock. There has not been a star on this offense since Grank/Brady. Look at the field!

He screwed up the 2019 draft so egregiously that it created a cascading effect where he had to spend a ton of money in FA in a year where there wasn’t much to spend on.

I don’t blame him for Mac not working out other than the Patricia hire but 2019 was an unmitigated disaster and we’re still paying the price for it.

 

[Jungleland]

Parker wasn't signed in 2021.
They signed....
The #1 TE, the #2 TE (Henry, Jonnu)
The #4 WR (Agholor behind Golladay, Davis and Samuel) and arguably the #5 WR (Bourne).

It was a weaker class than this year at WR, you shop what you can, and they did short deals to avoid the kind of long term bad committments that Davis and Golladay got.

It cracks me up how annoyed I was that they signed Agholor instead of Davis or Marvin Jones, both of which are literally retired or otherwise out of football already.

 

[Harry Hooper]

Yeah, I assume that, it was more pointing out top weapons.
The Patriots are either signing Evans or not signing a top skill player this offseason. As always... what's available is what's available

To that point, yesterday's Herald story said BB made an offer to Hopkins, despite the player's documented Iversonian views on practice. That suggests a bit of desperation on his part to improve the receiving corps. I imagine BB would have tried to structure the contract to make Hopkins very cuttable if things didn't go well, and maybe that (in addition to the $) is why Hopkins signed elsewhere.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Isn’t that the inherent problem with trying to build an offense via free agency? Yet we think it will work next year?

 

[Bongorific]

Parker wasn't signed in 2021.
They signed....
The #1 TE, the #2 TE (Henry, Jonnu)
The #4 WR (Agholor behind Golladay, Davis and Samuel) and arguably the #5 WR (Bourne).

It was a weaker class than this year at WR, you shop what you can, and they did short deals to avoid the kind of long term bad committments that Davis and Golladay got.

The part I wasn’t following in your post was “they did what people want them to do.” I don’t think the consensus here is that the Patriots offense blows because they didn’t spend in free agency, or that the only cure now is to spend this offseason. Their offense blows for a number of reasons including bad player evaluation, bad scheme, failing to find complimentary players in a better scheme (signing two FA TEs with similar skills?), poor drafting, not allocating enough draft resources to skill positions, and not trading for better skill positions. If you look at the top 20 receivers this season, the only one signed as FA is Thielen and his season was…surprising.

 

[BusRaker]

Isn’t that the inherent problem with trying to build an offense via free agency? Yet we think it will work next year?

We have to spend $72 million somehow though. Are you saying draft offense and spend on D and ST?

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

We have to spend $72 million somehow though. Are you saying draft offense and spend on D and ST?

I’m just wondering if we should really expect a free agency splurge to work out any better than it did a few years ago.

 

[DavidTai]

The 'grocery shopping' analogy, if we're gonna use that, is way oversimplified because there are a) multiple chefs in the NFL, b) 'free agent' ingredients are one of a kind, and shop themselves, meaning -they- have to be willing to jump into the pot and be cooked, c) different chefs shop shop for different ingredients because they have different recipes, and d) draft picks are not, shall we say, fully developed ingredients, and require some development/refinement.

And ultimately, in today's NFL, the base of your cooking is the QB, and if you don't hit on the QB, everything else falls on itself and their flaws become much more highlighted.

In lots of ways, Belichick was shopping for years -highlighting- his QB, Brady, as the base of his recipes. Since then, replacing Brady with Jones has proven to be a problem because, ultimately, Jones has proven to be a souffle, where you have to cook just -right- or the whole thing collapses over and over.

If we're carrying the cooking analogy further, I think the biggest problem with Belichick is that his sous chefs the last few years has sucked (Patricia, Judge) and screwed over the souffle (Jones.) His previous sous chef (McDaniels) took a lot of the offense coaches with him, which would seem to indicate lack of continuity, meaning the last couple years has been spent with a bunch of new chefs on offense. In lots of ways, I'm not terribly surprised the defense, which had more continuity on coaching, is cooking better than the offense has.

At this point, if I were Kraft, I'd take a long hard look at the chefs on the offensive side of the ball and consider if the best way to improve the offense is to convince Belichick to hire the chefs O'Brien wants on offense and then shop to -what- that offense wants, and use that time to further work with the heir apparent/sous chef (Jerod Mayo).

I don't think it matters right now, however, who does all the cooking, because the signature dish revolving around the QB basically needs that QB and the rest is just shouting.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I’m just wondering if we should really expect a free agency splurge to work out any better than it did a few years ago.

Well the one advantage they have this year is getting complimentary pieces might work better if they also are getting a top 4 pick.

One thing I wonder about is whether they might explore some trade options.
Jerry Jeudy is entering his last year, Godwin too, Rashid Shaheed is an ERFA, the a few guys that teams might be looking to move off for salary reasons: McLaurin, Sutton....

It's a bit harder in the NFL to use your cap space to take on assets from other teams than someplace like the NBA, but not impossible

 

[Harry Hooper]

I’m just wondering if we should really expect a free agency splurge to work out any better than it did a few years ago.

A fair question. NFL teams can rollover a sizable chunk of unspent $ to the next cap year if there's not enough talent worth buying this offseason.

The 'grocery shopping' analogy, if we're gonna use that, is way oversimplified because there are a) multiple chefs in the NFL, b) 'free agent' ingredients are one of a kind, and shop themselves, meaning -they- have to be willing to jump into the pot and be cooked, c) different chefs shop shop for different ingredients because they have different recipes, and d) draft picks are not, shall we say, fully developed ingredients, and require some development/refinement.

And ultimately, in today's NFL, the base of your cooking is the QB, and if you don't hit on the QB, everything else falls on itself and their flaws become much more highlighted.

In lots of ways, Belichick was shopping for years -highlighting- his QB, Brady, as the base of his recipes. Since then, replacing Brady with Jones has proven to be a problem because, ultimately, Jones has proven to be a souffle, where you have to cook just -right- or the whole thing collapses over and over.

If we're carrying the cooking analogy further, I think the biggest problem with Belichick is that his sous chefs the last few years has sucked (Patricia, Judge) and screwed over the souffle (Jones.) His previous sous chef (McDaniels) took a lot of the offense coaches with him, which would seem to indicate lack of continuity, meaning the last couple years has been spent with a bunch of new chefs on offense. In lots of ways, I'm not terribly surprised the defense, which had more continuity on defense, is cooking better than the offense has.

At this point, if I were Kraft, I'd take a long hard look at the chefs on the offensive side of the ball and consider if the best way to improve the offense is to convince Belichick to hire the chefs O'Brien wants on offense and then shop to -what- that offense wants, and use that time to further work with the heir apparent/sous chef (Jerod Mayo).

I don't think it matters right now, however, who does all the cooking, because the signature dish revolving around the QB basically needs that QB and the rest is just shouting.

This post has earned 3 stars from Le Guide Michelin.

 

[4 6 3 DP]

2022- "reach for Strange",....we'll see, but looks like he's at least a starter. Chalk would have been a QB (Willis) or non-QB I think Booth, who can't get on the field consistently for a bad MIN Secondary

This isn't really what happened. They had the 21st pick. Trent McDuffie, Devin Lloyd, Jermaine Johnson, and Linderbaum were on the board and the people on this site were clamoring for one of them (the first two being the most desired). We traded down for some 3s and 4s. If you want to discuss chalk of that pick, it's those players, not the 42nd pick (Booth) or 86th pick (Willis). There would have been no reason to draft a QB, we'd taken Mac the year before.

Even this year, give him all the credit you want for Gonzalez at 17, but he had to screw around at 14, risked losing the player, all to get picks to take Sidy Sow and Chad Ryland.

The days where he aggressively attacked the draft one way or the other (the Chandler Jones/Hightower year) are over.

 

[RedOctober3829]

The question to your draft and cap space point is...what would you have done instead?

The Pats had the money and got the best players available, who did you want them to sign instead?

Also were you complaining about drafting Mac at 15? No one here or in the media was, so it seems a bit unfair to now say he failed picking the next franchise quarter back from a class that now seems to have 4 busts and 1 hit...

What would I have done instead? At TE, signing Henry was Ok, but then I would have looked for more of a blocking TE that would have fit the offense better and on the WR side there weren't many better options. However, I would have rather had Curtis Samuel than Agholor.

Judon was a solid player. Mills was underwhelming and Godcheaux/Jonnu Smith were not good signings. The entire tenure of Bourne has been up and down but ok. Agholor was a disaster. That is how free agency works though. Some signings that work, some don't but they're almost always overpaid.

The point is that the bad drafts before this FA splurge were so bad that they had to overpay for FA's just to plug holes.

I'm more wondering about their process to draft Mac was like than the pick itself. Did they have conviction that Mac was their guy or took the best QB on the board at the time? BB also did a disservice to Mac by stunting any kind of chance at him developing in Year 2. He may have turned out like he did anyways, but he definitely did not give Mac the best chance to succeed.

 

[tims4wins]

What would I have done instead? At TE, signing Henry was Ok, but then I would have looked for more of a blocking TE that would have fit the offense better and on the WR side there weren't many better options. However, I would have rather had Curtis Samuel than Agholor.

Judon was a solid player. Mills was underwhelming and Godcheaux/Jonnu Smith were not good signings. The entire tenure of Bourne has been up and down but ok. Agholor was a disaster. That is how free agency works though. Some signings that work, some don't but they're almost always overpaid.

The point is that the bad drafts before this FA splurge were so bad that they had to overpay for FA's just to plug holes.

I'm more wondering about their process to draft Mac was like than the pick itself. Did they have conviction that Mac was their guy or took the best QB on the board at the time? BB also did a disservice to Mac by stunting any kind of chance at him developing in Year 2. He may have turned out like he did anyways, but he definitely did not give Mac the best chance to succeed.

Agree with all this except Godchaux. He's been a solid player and they extended him.

 

[DavidTai]

Even this year, give him all the credit you want for Gonzalez at 17, but he had to screw around at 14, risked losing the player, all to get picks to take Sidy Sow and Chad Ryland.

The days where he aggressively attacked the draft one way or the other (the Chandler Jones/Hightower year) are over.

Wasn't the Chandler/Hightower year the -exception-? It seemed like in almost all the rest of the years, he traded -down- to amass more picks. I think that particular draft was an exceptional outlier to the rest of his drafts.

 

[Cellar-Door]

This isn't really what happened. They had the 21st pick. Trent McDuffie, Devin Lloyd, Jermaine Johnson, and Linderbaum were on the board and the people on this site were clamoring for one of them (the first two being the most desired). We traded down for some 3s and 4s. If you want to discuss chalk of that pick, it's those players, not the 42nd pick (Booth) or 86th pick (Willis). There would have been no reason to draft a QB, we'd taken Mac the year before.

Even this year, give him all the credit you want for Gonzalez at 17, but he had to screw around at 14, risked losing the player, all to get picks to take Sidy Sow and Chad Ryland.

The days where he aggressively attacked the draft one way or the other (the Chandler Jones/Hightower year) are over.

Booth and Willis are based on consensus big board, since that is chalk not where they actually got drafted. I did forget about the trade down. So it would have been Willis as chalk, McDuffie as non-QB chalk, maybe that's better? Not sure, they needed O-line more than CB.

I'm not sure I get the criticism of the Gonzalez pick... he thought he would get a good player at 17 that he wanted, and pick up more assets... he read it correctly, then drafted an excellent player and got more picks.... that's being a good GM?

The idea that Bill.... notorious for trading down all throughout his time here, has suddenly lost it because he's trading down and won't trade up like the... what twice ever he did it? is silly, the Gonzalez move is similar to the Mayo one. He read the board, saw a chance to move down a few spots and still get a guy he wanted, did it, and it paid off.

Edit- also, Sidey Sow looks like he's going to be at least a swing lineman in this league.... that alone would make it a good trade, even if Ryland never gets unfucked. You get a guy you wanted and an elite talent, and you got a rotation lineman with the potential of being a starter for free.

 

[Ralphwiggum]

At WR, isn't the point that the true blue chip guys never hit FA? They get tagged and traded, so you have to be willing to give up draft capital plus a mega-deal to land a Hill or a Diggs. Cap space alone isn't going to do it, and he's not shown he values the position enough to do that.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

This isn't really what happened. They had the 21st pick. Trent McDuffie, Devin Lloyd, Jermaine Johnson, and Linderbaum were on the board and the people on this site were clamoring for one of them (the first two being the most desired). We traded down for some 3s and 4s. If you want to discuss chalk of that pick, it's those players, not the 42nd pick (Booth) or 86th pick (Willis). There would have been no reason to draft a QB, we'd taken Mac the year before.

Even this year, give him all the credit you want for Gonzalez at 17, but he had to screw around at 14, risked losing the player, all to get picks to take Sidy Sow and Chad Ryland.

The days where he aggressively attacked the draft one way or the other (the Chandler Jones/Hightower year) are over.

I think you are underestimating the degree to which teams know how the board is gonna fall that high in the draft. And by your logic shouldn’t they have traded up as high as possible to ensure they got Gonzalez? Hoping the player slid to 14 is a risk, too.

Asset management in the draft is an exercise in balance, of your relative evaluations of players, of positional importance, and of how staying/trading up/trading how affects both your chances of obtaining a player on your board in that pick range and other players on your board later in the draft.

It’s bizarre to me that you’d ding the team for acquiring a good player at a premium position without actually knowing how much risk there was that they’d miss out on the player. I can’t get there.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I think you are underestimating the degree to which teams know how the board is gonna fall that high in the draft. And by your logic shouldn’t they have traded up as high as possible to ensure they got Gonzalez? Hoping the player slid to 14 is a risk, too.

Asset management in the draft is an exercise in balance, of your relative evaluations of players, of positional importance, and of how staying/trading up/trading how affects both your chances of obtaining a player on your board in that pick range and other players on your board later in the draft.

It’s bizarre to me that you’d ding the team for acquiring a good player at a premium position without actually knowing how much risk there was that they’d miss out on the player. I can’t get there.

No no it's simple you just have to go to the flow chart....

If Bill traded down and picked a good player, he risked losing him for no reason
If Bill takes a player ahead of where he was projected and the player is good it was a dumb move and he should have traded down
If Bill takes a player ahead of projection and the player isn't good... what a fool he should have drafted whomever Mel Kiper had as BPA
If Bill takes a player around where he was projected and it doesn't work out he's an idiot who can't evaluate
If Bill takes a player where projected and it works.... anybody could have done that
If Bill passes on a player and they end up being good.... what a moron how could he pass on him
If Bill passes on a player and they end up being bad...... go back to the top of this chart.

 

[Van Everyman]

Agree with all this except Godchaux. He's been a solid player and they extended him.

Yes. Overpaid but solid.

I would also argue that Agholar, while also overpaid, wasn’t the disaster people have suggested. No he didn’t live up to the contract but what he brought to the offense has been kinda missed this year. I think a lot of his value was stretching the field, even when the ball wasn’t coming to him. Perhaps they thought Thornton could take a leap in year 2 but it resulted in even more clogged space underneath and Mac having to make even quicker reads.

I’m generally in the camp that the 2021 signings were mostly okay. One home run (Judon), two solid players (Henry/Bourne), one bust (Jonnu) and a bunch of guys that mostly did what they needed them to do (Mills/Godchaux/Agholar) even if it wasn’t particularly sparkling.

Thats the thing about Bill’s personnel record: he tends to get the guys his teams need to win. For all the consternation over his inability to draft receivers, it took 20+ years for that to actually bite him in the ass. You can say, “But Brady …” but there have really only been two or three years total where you can say their receiving corps was shitty. And even this year isn’t as bad as 2006 was (and that was at least partly because of the Branch situation).

Which is why I mostly think the problem the last few years has been the coaching exodus – not only Josh but Flores (who probably took the OC in waiting in Chad O’Shea). That’s also why I have been saying for months that the reason he did the Patricia/Judge two headed hydra thing was that they were guys who knew Bill’s culture and system and could maybe fill the void. They didn’t but it’s not necessarily clear to me that it was their fault – players aren’t the only ones who leave an organization.

 

[jk333]

We have to spend $72 million somehow though. Are you saying draft offense and spend on D and ST?

Shouldn’t they just spend 72 million on their own best players? I think that would mean Onwenu and Dugger, perhaps also a player not yet up.

I can be on board with overpaying for a good player also but like others said above, the players you actually want probably are not going to be free agents. All of this is a long way of saying, they don’t have enough good players to spend all their money on. If they had resigned Thuney, and used the Strange pick on a receiver…