I offer you a bet to flip a fair coin. If it’s heads, I give you $100. If it’s tails, you give me $50. It’s tails. You give me $50.
So much of what you say comes across as your thinking that was a bad bet because you lost $50.
This is now: BB and the direction of the Patriots
- Thread starter DennyDoyle'sBoil
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So much of what you say comes across as your thinking that was a bad bet because you lost $50.
That's a poor example but I'll bite.
If I was in a coin flipping game and I picked 20 coin flips and missed on 17 of them, I'd think I was doing something wrong. And if someone was watching me, they would probably think I was doing something wrong, too.
During the Patriots dynasty, all we heard, accurately, was that Bill was smarter, better prepared, and a better coach than anyone else in the NFL. He was playing chess and everyone else was playing checkers. He built better rosters with better players and put all of them in their best position to succeed. He traded down in the draft to take more shots and build the roster in a perfect way. The team always did the right things at the right moment, never made stupid mistakes, never committed idiotic penalties, special teams were buttoned up and a massive advantage, and the team was never out of any game. It is because of this they beat the Seahawks and Falcons in the Super Bowl. Matt Ryan is the one who fumbled and got sacked while in FG range. The defense did this to Ryan. Tom Brady is the one who kept getting the ball to White, Edelman, and Amendola, when one failure was the end of the game. It was Russell Wilson who threw the INT and it was Pete Carroll who called the play in the middle of the field. It was Malcolm Butler who jumped the route. It was Richard Sherman going from euphoria to tears.
Now that Patriots are playing checkers and getting king'ed on every third turn, you're like, "Well, what can you do? It's all just a random thing. At least they are trying and have a process but the results don't mean anything."
It can't be both.
Bill is the best coach in history. Period. They should establish a 5000 square foot wing in Canton dedicated to him. But he's getting old and there hasn't been a new voice in the building in a very, very long time. It shows.
You don't end up with the worst offense in the NFL randomly. It takes a lot. And you don't have a 20 year dynasty randomly, either. It takes a lot more.
First off, appreciate the thoughtful post and I always think you bring great insights, and I see where you're coming from.
Re: The bolded, this is where I differ a bit. You're posing it as - they had to not only draft a QB, but they had to stay in their draft spot. Neither Douglas nor BB were fixed to those decisions, and there are many other decisions they could have made that would've been a better choice than settling for a QB because those were the only QB options in the draft. It's hard for me to imagine that BB said, "This is the only QB left, might as well take him" because that wasn't really a good decision. Would this team be any worse with Jacoby Brissett at QB the last three seasons? Would the team be better if the draft capital were spent elsewhere? If the only solution to certain problems is "Need ---> draft BPA" regardless of whether that BPA is actually good then I don't know what they need Bill for - you or I could do that.
You can say that I have the benefit of hindsight and I won't deny it - I just think this idea of "consensus" drafting lets teams off the hook (and you've already so eloquently pointed out how bad the chalk can be in other posts).
Yeah, I get that. I guess I see QB as different from everything else. Would the Patriots have been worse off with say... Brissett... in hindsight no. But, the thing is if you think there is even a 50% chance you're getting a average starter in your guy it's such a huge advantage to have that guy on a rookie deal, especially if you think there is a 10 or 15% chance he can be a top 10 QB, because all the years of control. It's the rare case where the supply is so low, and the reward so much higher that I actually do think you don't mess around with that, you take the best QB you can. NOW, there are obviously some exceptions, if you don't think there is a QB at all who has those kinds of chances.
Basically I think that QB breaks all the rules because it's just so much more important than anything else in terms of value.
As you correctly note, there were other options available besides drafting Mac Jones at 15. However, there has been this (admittedly weak) reporting from a couple of the local media types that Kraft insisted on drafting a QB in 2021. Not sure I believe that, but we just did also see the Boston Herald report that Kraft insisted that Bill hire a new OC.
I really hope neither is the case, especially the former. NFL owner meddling in the draft is far worse than owner meddling in the coaching staff makeup. But if it was true, does that change the calculus at all?
I think that makes sense, but (and not to belabor the point) Bill is totally fine in every other area breaking the consensus and drafting players way over where they're expected to go. That's the part that makes me wonder what happened in this evaluation to make them get it wrong, how their evaluation changed once they got him in house, why they thought he would in a precision offense without receivers who get separation, and why the only alternative they pursued while he was here was another small, weak-armed QB in Bailey Zappe.
I know you've posted what you feel are the answers to those questions in other posts so no need to respond, but it's the chain of decisions that is hardest for me to wrap my head around.
But I don't know that, at the time Bill did have other options that would've been better.
Top 3 picked QBs were out of reach. He could've traded up for Fields but that would've cost a fair amount in draft capital for a guy who wasn't obviously going to be better (and basically hasn't been).
He could have stood pat and not picked Mac. That's a really tough call to make IMO. You need a QB. Mac is the last remaining QB of the high-rated top 5. Passing on him means you either don't get a QB, or at best you get a flyer in a later round (and once again, at this point it doesn't look like he missed on anyone significant).
He could've attempted to trade for a good QB...I mean, sure, maybe. Who?
He could've picked up a free agent QB...I mean, sure, maybe. Who?
He could've rolled with Cam. That would not have been a popular decision round these parts, and lets face it probably wouldn't have worked terribly well.
Not only do I think he made a reasonable choice to take Mac, I don't think he had any realistic choice that looked better (excepting perhaps trading up for Fields - I would not have done that and I liked Fields better + I think there's plenty of evidence that trading up like that is a poor decision more often than a good one, but it seems defendable to me. Though in retrospect, meh, it doesn't seem to matter much either way).
I think it's more reasonable to question the development process that took Mac from one of the better rookie seasons in recent memory to where we are now. Something has gone badly wrong there, on a scale we've not seen often - young QBs tend to get better rather than worse. The thing is, there's not a lot to point to that suggests Bill isn't good at developing QBs. In fact to the contrary, there are several guys playing QB in the NFL who would suggest in fact Bill has been good at that (and good recently, not 20 years ago). So I'm more inclined to put this failure down to one of those things rather than "Bill can't develop QBs" or "Bill has forgotten how to develop QBs". Sometimes shit just does happen.
The Jets taking Wilson is harder to defend - they had more options and their track record of QB selection and development over the last decade has been terrible.
I hear that and I think it's very convenient. Every anti-BB article that comes out we presume is Jonathan Kraft spin; wouldn't it be reasonable to think that the opposite is just spin coming from BB?
But also I've never been as high on Kraft as an owner as others here. I don't think he's especially impressive or bright or forward-thinking - I believe he lucked into BB/Brady and was just smart enough to not fuck it up too much (that said, he's much better than most NFL owners - low bar to clear). So if this was true, I'd be fearful of the future whether Bill was here or not (because if he can't manage up, who can?). I'd still look cross-eyed at the Mac pick because he just seemed like Stetson Bennett to me - an athletically limited QB who never has to challenge the defense because he's always throwing to the best athletes in college football with a ton of space.
When Brady left, I imagine there was a discussion between Kraft and Belichick about Bill’s vision for the future and what should be expected in terms of the team’s performance and direction. Whether Bill stays or goes likely depends on how well Bill has executed towards that vision. I’m guessing RK felt like he chose Belichick over Brady, and I can’t imagine he’s thrilled with what has happened with both guys since, fair or not.
Yeah Mac imploded about as bad as a QB could possibly implode. That's the difference this year between 4 or 5 wins and nine or ten. That's how big the fail was.
Yeah this place is gonna be ugly come Monday.
I love. LOVE. L-O-V-E. Bill Belichick. I am as grateful as anyone on earth for him.
But he's the CEO. He owns it all. It's the worst offense in the league - that is a fact, not an opinion. It's been building since 2019. And while his "excuses" were valid at some point in time, they aren't any more. They had cap space in 2021 and a decent draft position, and we're here 3 years later going through the same thing. Why would we expect 2024-2026 to be any different than 2021-2023?
I love. LOVE. L-O-V-E. Bill Belichick. I am as grateful as anyone on earth for him.
But he's the CEO. He owns it all. It's the worst offense in the league - that is a fact, not an opinion. It's been building since 2019. And while his "excuses" were valid at some point in time, they aren't any more. They had cap space in 2021 and a decent draft position, and we're here 3 years later going through the same thing. Why would we expect 2024-2026 to be any different than 2021-2023?
Almost everyone here could have done a better job with the 2019 draft than BB did just by going off draft lists. It was such a spectacular failure to not come away with a good WR that draft.
Deebo Samuel
AJ Brown
DK Metcalf
Diontae Johnson
Terry McLaurin
Edelman was 33. Gronk was gone. Dorsett was a known scrub. Gordon was completely unreliable. It was the perfect draft to double down on receivers early and we couldn’t have made a worse decision.
Missing that pick directly led to wasting a 2nd round pick on Mohamed Sanu of all people. It then led to further FA mistakes a couple years later.
A few years later, we waste another high pick on Thornton. I don’t know what BB looks for in a WR but…it’s not working. Ironically, his best WR success since Branch/Givens have been converted guys in Edelman and Meyers. Maybe let him keep doing that and let someone else manage the traditional WRs.
So this comes up a ton.....
Harry was ahead of every one of those WRs on the draft lists except DK, you can find the consensus big boards, Harry was WR #3 behind DK and Hollywood Brown
https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards/2019/consensus-big-board-2019?pos=WR
If you want to make the argument that he has missed on WRs, that's very fair, and I agree with it, at least for early round X WRs, they have really struggled with evaluation, and/or development.
But it isn't because he bucks consensus necessarily, or even that he favors one thing over another... Harry was a big physical guy who was a college YAC monster and didn't separate, Thornton was a rail thin speedster who was raw as route runner. Both big misses, both for different reasons. (I always wondered if missing on Harry caused them to drop Pickens, another guy who doesn't separate.) It just seems to be a hole in their scouting and development.
One what if I wonder about. In 2020 there was a lot of rumors that the Patriots traded down from 23 because the Vikings took Jefferson and he was the last 1st round grade on their board. Would he have been a monster here? Or is it development as much as scouting that is the issue.
The thing with Bill the GM is, he - like every other GM who is long tenured - has always had his share of bad drafts, veteran acquisitions that didn’t pan out and position groups which just aren’t good enough for a year or two. There’s nothing about the last 2-3 off seasons that stands out as different from his other “dry spells” during the 20 years when he consistently fielded a top 10, usually top 7, sometimes top 3 roster from player 1 to player 53.
People harp on Ryland, Strange, Thornton and the like. But find me a respected long tenured GM that doesn’t have horrific draft picks like that or multiple drafts which provide very little value. Bill would be raked over the coals if he made the deal for Trey Lance that Lynch did. Taking Jaelen Reagor one slot before Jefferson would make the Harry over Brown/Metcalf stuff look tame.
Ozzie Newsome is generally regarded as one of the best GMs in the modern era. Yet, he only assembled one Lombardi winning roster. He consistently struggled to find offensive talent. In his tenure as GM (2002-2018), the Ravens had 7 teams 21st or worse in points scored. His drafting, again, generally regarded as top tier, but lots of drafts where he got one stand out or no stand outs and a nice role player or two.
for example, from 2009-2015, he drafted 57 players. He nailed CJ Mosley. ZaDarius Smith turned into a nice player but never as a starter with the Ravens. Juszczyk is a great player at a non premium position. Tyrod Taylor was a nice find but never contributed to the Ravens in a meaningful way. Waller was a stud but again not with the Ravens. The rest of the picks are uninspiring including old friends Terrence Brooks, Carl Davis and John Simon. He found a couple of useful but not standout OL.
his top 75 picks: Breshad Perriman, Maxx Williams, Mosley, Timmy Jernigan, Matt Elam, Arthur Brown, Courtney Upshaw, Kelechi Osemele, Jimmy Smith, Torrey Smith, Sergio Kindle, Terrence Cody, Ed Dickson, Michael Oher, Paul Kruger.
Not exactly an inspiring group of players and certainly not a haul of building block franchise players. A couple of those guys fall into the “not terrible but not worth that pick” category but also a lot of guys who were basically worthless or close to it.
which is not to crap on Newsome. He deserves his reputation as being good at his job. But there simply is no GM, ever, who stays employed for a long time who doesn’t have bad runs of talent acquisition. It’s why most teams hover around .500 with small windows where they’re really good (which almost always coincide with a franchise QB window).
and for all the “Pats could have had Metcalf instead of Harry!” stuff, keep in mind John “brilliant discoverer of DK Metcalf” drafted LJ Collier in the 1st round and Marquise Blair in the 2nd round before Metcalf. It’s easy to find 10-15 guys around the league every year and say “bill sucks for taking flop X instead of stud Y” but most of “stud Y’s” fellow draft class on that drafting team flop so it’s not like that other GM is a genius getting it right every time. That was the same year Howie Roseman (another good GM) took JJ Arcega Whiteside over Metcalf (and McLaurin) and Andre Dillard in the 1st round. The draft is a total crapshoot and the chances that Bill’s replacement is appreciably better over any meaningful sample size aren’t great.
People harp on Ryland, Strange, Thornton and the like. But find me a respected long tenured GM that doesn’t have horrific draft picks like that or multiple drafts which provide very little value. Bill would be raked over the coals if he made the deal for Trey Lance that Lynch did. Taking Jaelen Reagor one slot before Jefferson would make the Harry over Brown/Metcalf stuff look tame.
Ozzie Newsome is generally regarded as one of the best GMs in the modern era. Yet, he only assembled one Lombardi winning roster. He consistently struggled to find offensive talent. In his tenure as GM (2002-2018), the Ravens had 7 teams 21st or worse in points scored. His drafting, again, generally regarded as top tier, but lots of drafts where he got one stand out or no stand outs and a nice role player or two.
for example, from 2009-2015, he drafted 57 players. He nailed CJ Mosley. ZaDarius Smith turned into a nice player but never as a starter with the Ravens. Juszczyk is a great player at a non premium position. Tyrod Taylor was a nice find but never contributed to the Ravens in a meaningful way. Waller was a stud but again not with the Ravens. The rest of the picks are uninspiring including old friends Terrence Brooks, Carl Davis and John Simon. He found a couple of useful but not standout OL.
his top 75 picks: Breshad Perriman, Maxx Williams, Mosley, Timmy Jernigan, Matt Elam, Arthur Brown, Courtney Upshaw, Kelechi Osemele, Jimmy Smith, Torrey Smith, Sergio Kindle, Terrence Cody, Ed Dickson, Michael Oher, Paul Kruger.
Not exactly an inspiring group of players and certainly not a haul of building block franchise players. A couple of those guys fall into the “not terrible but not worth that pick” category but also a lot of guys who were basically worthless or close to it.
which is not to crap on Newsome. He deserves his reputation as being good at his job. But there simply is no GM, ever, who stays employed for a long time who doesn’t have bad runs of talent acquisition. It’s why most teams hover around .500 with small windows where they’re really good (which almost always coincide with a franchise QB window).
and for all the “Pats could have had Metcalf instead of Harry!” stuff, keep in mind John “brilliant discoverer of DK Metcalf” drafted LJ Collier in the 1st round and Marquise Blair in the 2nd round before Metcalf. It’s easy to find 10-15 guys around the league every year and say “bill sucks for taking flop X instead of stud Y” but most of “stud Y’s” fellow draft class on that drafting team flop so it’s not like that other GM is a genius getting it right every time. That was the same year Howie Roseman (another good GM) took JJ Arcega Whiteside over Metcalf (and McLaurin) and Andre Dillard in the 1st round. The draft is a total crapshoot and the chances that Bill’s replacement is appreciably better over any meaningful sample size aren’t great.
I was so disappointed when Jefferson got scooped up before us. Nobody had any idea he’d be this good, and Vikings Jefferson is probably better than Patriots Jefferson, but it would have been a good test of BB’s WR philosophy. He would have checked off a lot of boxes, I think.
NE hasn't had a 1K yard receiver since Edelman in 2019, that ties DEN for 2nd longest drought who just missed last year with Jeudy ending the year at 972 yards. The only team with a longer drought is NYG who have had the worst receiving corp in the NFL for quite some time. For all the drafting is a crap shoot and FA often doesn't work out talk the fact remains this has been a well below average offense for quite some time now. Sure put some blame on the QB but Devante Adams is still putting up 1K yards with garbage QBs throwing to him.
I stand by the idea that the offense is completely broken, they have a lot of big slow guys and tiny quick guys but no one that can actually win at all levels of the field or deliver big plays with any consistency. QB play sucks, WRs are terrible, OL is at best below average and the TEs are forgettable.
Bill is still great at evaluating defensive players and building a defense but there is nothing in his track record over the last 5 yrs that leads me to believe he can still build a competent offense.
Part of me wants to see what he can do with his highest draft pick possibly ever but another part of me is scared to death that he trades down, selects a 2nd tier T followed by a DB/DT then drafts a WR in 4th after the best ones are off the board and signs a QB in FA. The only offense in the NFL that I wouldn't trade NEs for is CAR and NYG. That in and of itself is pretty damning and has me leaning towards it is time to try a new approach.
I stand by the idea that the offense is completely broken, they have a lot of big slow guys and tiny quick guys but no one that can actually win at all levels of the field or deliver big plays with any consistency. QB play sucks, WRs are terrible, OL is at best below average and the TEs are forgettable.
Bill is still great at evaluating defensive players and building a defense but there is nothing in his track record over the last 5 yrs that leads me to believe he can still build a competent offense.
Part of me wants to see what he can do with his highest draft pick possibly ever but another part of me is scared to death that he trades down, selects a 2nd tier T followed by a DB/DT then drafts a WR in 4th after the best ones are off the board and signs a QB in FA. The only offense in the NFL that I wouldn't trade NEs for is CAR and NYG. That in and of itself is pretty damning and has me leaning towards it is time to try a new approach.
I have a friend that has *some* connections and says BB isn’t coaching tomorrow because he is sick and Joe Judge will be HC
If that happens, it is another indication that he knows he isn't getting fired. To me, at least.
It would be absolutely hillarious if Bill called out sick from having to do the farewell press conference after the game.
He was clearly sick in his presser the other day, which he conducted via Zoom, but unless he’s literally hospitalized I can’t imagine Bill not being on the sideline.
All quiet on the media front, at least based on a quick Twitter check. You would think that this kind of development would get out pretty quickly, especially given how many people on the staff have been flapping their gums to various members of the media over the past few weeks.
Stranger things have happened, of course.
All quiet on the media front, at least based on a quick Twitter check. You would think that this kind of development would get out pretty quickly, especially given how many people on the staff have been flapping their gums to various members of the media over the past few weeks.
Stranger things have happened, of course.
He doesn’t show up for his last day at work.
If this is true, it would be a pretty anticlimactic ending- but isn’t it bound to be, no matter when, and how?
This is the ultimate troll job by Bill. God he hates the Jets. Won’t even show up, let’s Judge tank, his streak lives.
There’s another non-COVID respiratory thing going around the Boston area right now. I know a few people fighting it right now.
I can confirm. I’ve had nasal and chest congestion for over a week with multiple negative tests.
As someone who grew up on Red Sox but didn’t start following the NFL until BB was around - he’s really all I know.
I don’t watch this team for Kraft. I watched for Bill and Tom. Now for Bill.
If he has some bad exit, it’s very possible I go back to being a one-sport guy again. I enjoy him as a personality, and I enjoy his singular focus and distraction free way of doing things. I want him to go out the way he wants to, he’s 100000% earned it.
I don’t watch this team for Kraft. I watched for Bill and Tom. Now for Bill.
If he has some bad exit, it’s very possible I go back to being a one-sport guy again. I enjoy him as a personality, and I enjoy his singular focus and distraction free way of doing things. I want him to go out the way he wants to, he’s 100000% earned it.
I hope they bring Bill back for one last ride in 2024. But I’m a sentimental guy who would’ve been fine with them bringing Brady back for as many years as he wanted to play, cap be damned.
And I would’ve been fine with Ainge bringing back Pierce and Garnet for a couple more .500 seasons, because I loved those guys wearing green so much.
But that’s the thing. If they move on from BB they better find their Tatum and Brown in this draft.
Some folks are convinced Bill can’t return to form. I’m not so sure. I’d give him one last shot at it. What’s the harm to know for sure?
And I would’ve been fine with Ainge bringing back Pierce and Garnet for a couple more .500 seasons, because I loved those guys wearing green so much.
But that’s the thing. If they move on from BB they better find their Tatum and Brown in this draft.
Some folks are convinced Bill can’t return to form. I’m not so sure. I’d give him one last shot at it. What’s the harm to know for sure?
He's going to be 72. The track record of guys finding renewed success at that age isn't good. He's stuck in his ways. I'd rather cut bait a year early than a year too late aka what Belichick has done for years with players. This is Tom Landry 2.0.
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