This is now: BB and the direction of the Patriots

[RedOctober3829]

In what way was 2021 "dreck"? They went 10-7 with a rookie QB, had the #6 scoring team in the league and allowed the 2nd fewest points in the NFL. No that wasn't up to the standards of the Brady era, but that's very very far from "dreck".

It wasn't that bad of a year because they made the playoffs, but here's a breakdown of their wins: 6 wins vs. really bad teams(Houston, Jetsx2, Jacksonville, Carolina, Atlanta) 2 wins vs. teams who at the time were decimated by injury(Cleveland, Tennessee), and 1 win in a historic weather game(Buffalo). The other win was the Chargers on the road which was a really nice win. If you look at the 10-8 record on the surface, it was considered a decent season but if you dig a bit deeper it is kind of a fraudulent season. They were not as good as their record.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

It's about time someone read my sig!

What if Kraft and Belichick never come out and say BB is coming back this year and just go about business as normal as he is "under contract"? What will the talking heads do?

This is 100% what I have been thinking happens all along. I'm rooting for this.

 

[DJnVa]

Maybe not. But we just saw a team with the number one defense in the nation win the college football championship in convincing style. And we’ve seen scoring decline in the NFL the past few years.

And the top five teams with a chance to win it all this year are these teams (and their scoring defense rank):

Baltimore - #1
San Francisco - #3
Dallas - #5
Buffalo - #4
Kansas City - #2

Do we think those 5 teams "rely on defense"?

Baltimore is about to have the MVP, SF has weapons everywhere, Dallas has an MVP candidate and Cee Dee Lamb, Buffalo has a freak at QB and Diggs, and KC has Mahomes.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Maybe not. But we just saw a team with the number one defense in the nation win the college football championship in convincing style. And we’ve seen scoring decline in the NFL the past few years.

And the top five teams with a chance to win it all this year are these teams (and their scoring defense rank):

Baltimore - #1
San Francisco - #3
Dallas - #5
Buffalo - #4
Kansas City - #2

Their scoring offense ranks by PPG. 4 of the top 6 scoring offenses in the league and the other has Patrick Mahomes.
Baltimore--#4
SF--#3
Dallas--#1
Buffalo--#6
KC--#15

 

[Cellar-Door]

It wasn't that bad of a year because they made the playoffs, but here's a breakdown of their wins: 6 wins vs. really bad teams(Houston, Jetsx2, Jacksonville, Carolina, Atlanta) 2 wins vs. teams who at the time were decimated by injury(Cleveland, Tennessee), and 1 win in a historic weather game(Buffalo). The other win was the Chargers on the road which was a really nice win. If you look at the 10-8 record on the surface, it was considered a decent season but if you dig a bit deeper it is kind of a fraudulent season. They were not as good as their record.

YOu can break down most seasons for middle of the road edge of the playoff teams that way. Beating the bad teams is how you make the playoffs. Though SRS actually thought they were quite good (yes the injury breaks help),

 

[Manuel Aristides]

A process can't be considered unsound if it has produced excellent results. I beg you to reconsider this.

I agree with what you say here. I didn't say that. I didn't use the word "can't", which is a little pedantic but does make a big difference. I think in this specific instance the process is not categorically unsound, and that the excellent results are strong evidence of that conclusion.

Yes, an unsound process can produce excellent results. But if your argument that the process is unsound is "it wasn't lauded at the time" (your first point) or that "the last 2 (or is it 5?) out of 24 years the process has failed" (your more recent tack), I'm saying that is not very convincing evidence to me, and the results, by contrast, suggest you are wrong: the process has, at least sometimes, been effective.

I'm not sure what your parenthetical comments do except prove my point: they were right about those "incorrect" decisions, as you put it. You think it's luck, I think it's not. Neither of us know for sure and we never will. I am happy to think that the games and championships won were earned. If you prefer to think of them as lucky happenstance despite horrific process, OK. We've sufficently expressed our disagreement.

 

[Zincman]

There is a common theme running through this entire thread that is a supposition that a HC must have a singular orientation, either offense or defense, in order to be successful. In fact, the job of HC requires a more elaborate skill set than that of either an OC or DC. Not many Head Coaches have that skill set especially as they invest a great deal of time in their area of expertise. Hiring someone to be HC must also be an evaluation of their organizational and administrative skills. It's no surprise that BB has always wanted full control because he has spent a lifetime in all parts of the game. (Those who think he had nothing to do with offense over these last 23 years are misguided and the development of Brady is certainly part of his resume). That's why the search for a new HC (and I hope there isn't one) must not be based on extraneous virtues or perceptions. The next HC must be one who can coalesce the entire organization even if he reports to a GM and the Krafts. This is done in different administrative ways but make no mistake, the HC is the core of the operation and it will be more important that he be able to galvanize the operation of this team than it is to marvel at the new "wonder boy's" ability to move Xs and Os around the board.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

Pats just signed TJ Luther to future contract. Who is making that move if BB is getting fired??

 

[cshea]

Pats just signed TJ Luther to future contract. Who is making that move if BB is getting fired??

They signed like 7 guys yesterday, this is SOP for the practice squad dudes.

 

[IdiotKicker]

Pats just signed TJ Luther to future contract. Who is making that move if BB is getting fired??

Someone reading BBtL. We got our big receiver.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

They signed like 7 guys yesterday, this is SOP for the practice squad dudes.

It was a joke

 

[Justthetippett]

There is a common theme running through this entire thread that is a supposition that a HC must have a singular orientation, either offense or defense, in order to be successful. In fact, the job of HC requires a more elaborate skill set than that of either an OC or DC. Not many Head Coaches have that skill set especially as they invest a great deal of time in their area of expertise. Hiring someone to be HC must also be an evaluation of their organizational and administrative skills. It's no surprise that BB has always wanted full control because he has spent a lifetime in all parts of the game. (Those who think he had nothing to do with offense over these last 23 years are misguided and the development of Brady is certainly part of his resume). That's why the search for a new HC (and I hope there isn't one) must not be based on extraneous virtues or perceptions. The next HC must be one who can coalesce the entire organization even if he reports to a GM and the Krafts. This is done in different administrative ways but make no mistake, the HC is the core of the operation and it will be more important that he be able to galvanize the operation of this team than it is to marvel at the new "wonder boy's" ability to move Xs and Os around the board.

Well put and I would say this is why they find Vrabel attractive. The whole "leader of men" thing is lame, but he's a good administrator, brings an identity without prescribing things too much, handles the media well, makes good decions in game, etc. The whole fallout with the GM incident is worth a close look, but if that was primarily a disagreement over Brown then it's hard to fault him. I would be less worried about an offensive/defensive whizkid than all of the other stuff that goes into being an HC. Go find that person to lead the offense or a lesser position group.

 

[BaseballJones]

Their scoring offense ranks by PPG. 4 of the top 6 scoring offenses in the league and the other has Patrick Mahomes.
Baltimore--#4
SF--#3
Dallas--#1
Buffalo--#6
KC--#15

Well I mean… if the question is, is it better to have a great offense *and* a great defense or just a great defense, isn’t the answer obvious?

 

[Harry Hooper]

This is 100% what I have been thinking happens all along. I'm rooting for this.

Maybe not 100% agreement on my part, but it would be something!

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

I agree with what you say here. I didn't say that. I didn't use the word "can't", which is a little pedantic but does make a big difference. I think in this specific instance the process is not categorically unsound, and that the excellent results are strong evidence of that conclusion.

You said "is not." More definitive than "can't be considered." Appreciate you elaborating on your point.

Yes, an unsound process can produce excellent results. But if your argument that the process is unsound is "it wasn't lauded at the time" (your first point) or that "the last 2 (or is it 5?) out of 24 years the process has failed" (your more recent tack), I'm saying that is not very convincing evidence to me, and the results, by contrast, suggest you are wrong: the process has, at least sometimes, been effective.

I apologize that facts aren't convincing. And way to backtrack. My stance never moved. Bad process. Bad when Tom was here. Worse when Tom left. Now in the last two years, literally last in the NFL in scoring.

I'm not sure what your parenthetical comments do except prove my point: they were right about those "incorrect" decisions, as you put it. You think it's luck, I think it's not. Neither of us know for sure and we never will. I am happy to think that the games and championships won were earned. If you prefer to think of them as lucky happenstance despite horrific process, OK. We've sufficently expressed our disagreement.

I consider Tom Brady to be the only player in the history of the NFL to effectively raise the competition level of an entire personnel grouping consistently over his career.

 

[j44thor]

Pats just signed TJ Luther to future contract. Who is making that move if BB is getting fired??

I read his nickname is Lex and this is a sign BB is coming back to reprise the Villainous Patriots of the 2010s.

 

[Curt S Loew]

What if Kraft and Belichick never come out and say BB is coming back this year and just go about business as normal as he is "under contract"? What will the talking heads do?

This is 100% what I have been thinking happens all along. I'm rooting for this.

I'm with both of you. http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/bb-open-to-relinquishing-gm-duties.41496/post-5926063

 

[sezwho]

It was a joke

Besides, Bill has so many collaborators and colleagues. He’s just lousy with collaborators.

Maybe not 100% agreement on my part, but it would be something!

Yes, I now can’t get this out of my head. It’s too good.

 

[Manuel Aristides]

I apologize that facts aren't convincing. And way to backtrack. My stance never moved. Bad process. Bad when Tom was here. Worse when Tom left. Now in the last two years, literally last in the NFL in scoring.

Last question: do you believe that Tom Brady was so good that he essentially made even the defenses better? Like did the 2004 team have 3 all-pros (not that that's so many, just, grabbing a random data point) because the offense somehow put them in position to succeed?

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Last question: do you believe that Tom Brady was so good that he essentially made even the defenses better? Like did the 2004 team have 3 all-pros (not that that's so many, just, grabbing a random data point) because the offense somehow put them in position to succeed?

Well, there probably is some interplay here, no. A really good offense that controls the ball for a long time will lead to a more rested defense. A good offense will have its defense playing with a lead, which probably helps.

I imagine that the Patriots already good defense would have been better this year with a stronger offense. But no idea how to prove that.

 

[NobodyInteresting]

It wasn't that bad of a year because they made the playoffs, but here's a breakdown of their wins: 6 wins vs. really bad teams(Houston, Jetsx2, Jacksonville, Carolina, Atlanta) 2 wins vs. teams who at the time were decimated by injury(Cleveland, Tennessee), and 1 win in a historic weather game(Buffalo). The other win was the Chargers on the road which was a really nice win. If you look at the 10-8 record on the surface, it was considered a decent season but if you dig a bit deeper it is kind of a fraudulent season. They were not as good as their record.

DVOAs by year - DVOA adjusts for opposition strength

2020 17th -2.7%
2021 8th +16.0%
2022 16th -1.2%
2023 27th -15.8%

By this metric your "not that bad of a year" in 2021 was almost exactly the positive equivalent of 2023 (Did we just have a "not that good" year?). They were good in 2021 - very good in parts (IIRC at one point Football Outsiders had them at an insane 25% chance to win the superbowl).

Of course DVOA is just one metric, but it's not a completely stupid one. 10-7 sugggests they were good. +16% DVOA suggests they were good. I kinda feel like "good" is a better description than "not that bad" or "fraudulent".

More generally I just can't make a reasonable case that the 4 years since Brady left haven't been

2020 average to slightly worse
2021 good
2022 average to slightly worse
2023 bad to very bad.

I'm happy to hear reasonable explanations of why this hasn't been the case, but I'm not really seeing them.

 

[Jinhocho]

DVOAs by year - DVOA adjusts for opposition strength

2020 17th -2.7%
2021 8th +16.0%
2022 16th -1.2%
2023 27th -15.8%

By this metric your "not that bad of a year" in 2021 was almost exactly the positive equivalent of 2023 (Did we just have a "not that good" year?). They were good in 2021 - very good in parts (IIRC at one point Football Outsiders had them at an insane 25% chance to win the superbowl).

Of course DVOA is just one metric, but it's not a completely stupid one. 10-7 sugggests they were good. +16% DVOA suggests they were good. I kinda feel like "good" is a better description than "not that bad" or "fraudulent".

More generally I just can't make a reasonable case that the 4 years since Brady left haven't been

2020 average to slightly worse
2021 good
2022 average to slightly worse
2023 bad to very bad.

I'm happy to hear reasonable explanations of why this hasn't been the case, but I'm not really seeing them.

I remember people saying in 2020 that it was a 3-4 win team and it might have been BB best coaching job ever.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

There is a common theme running through this entire thread that is a supposition that a HC must have a singular orientation, either offense or defense, in order to be successful. In fact, the job of HC requires a more elaborate skill set than that of either an OC or DC. Not many Head Coaches have that skill set especially as they invest a great deal of time in their area of expertise. Hiring someone to be HC must also be an evaluation of their organizational and administrative skills. It's no surprise that BB has always wanted full control because he has spent a lifetime in all parts of the game. (Those who think he had nothing to do with offense over these last 23 years are misguided and the development of Brady is certainly part of his resume). That's why the search for a new HC (and I hope there isn't one) must not be based on extraneous virtues or perceptions. The next HC must be one who can coalesce the entire organization even if he reports to a GM and the Krafts. This is done in different administrative ways but make no mistake, the HC is the core of the operation and it will be more important that he be able to galvanize the operation of this team than it is to marvel at the new "wonder boy's" ability to move Xs and Os around the board.

I think this is a good post vis a vis the actual responsibilities a head coach has to handle in the NFL in today's world.

And I think it's also why BB is struggling over the last 4-5 years. He's never had a singular orientation, but he's, IMO, the greatest defensive mind the game has ever seen. He knows how to find players on defense late in drafts, in free agency, he knows how to move them around, he knows how to maximize their strengths and minimize their weaknesses, he knows what other teams are going to do and how to counter them and if they surprise him, he knows how to adjust to it in the moment. He is a master of game planning, of preparation and execution on the defensive side of the ball and he's much the same on special teams.

I've never really thought of Bill as having an offensive mind, but because he's so gifted as a defensive mind, he's able to sit down with a guy like Brady, who possesses, IMO, the greatest football mind of anyone that's ever worn a helmet and show him what the defense is trying to do, and Brady was able to take that information, along with guys like Weis and McDaniels and succeed from there. Bill also had guys like Pioli and Cesario working personnel, working on scouting, he had Ernie Adams in his ear during games. He had Dante teaching the line how to play. And all of these guys benefited from Bill knowing what opposing defenses were going to do or try to do on a week to week basis. We can joke about their failures after they left here, but even guys like Daboll, and Flores and Crennel. Shit, the two guys that appear to be leading frontrunners to take his job, were also players for him who were field generals for him in Vrabel and Mayo.

He lost all of that, in addition to losing Brady. Now he's become the defensive guru, the offensive guru, the special teams guru, the head of scouting, and on and on and on, and I don't believe he has found guys he can trust or rely upon to do the things he's always been able to delegate and frankly, there isn't enough hours in the day to do it all (and if there were, Bill would probably be the guy to use all of them). He has less coaches than anyone in the NFL for a reason. Dude hasn't even had his newly hired Offensive line coach for most of the season. Now, because BB has been doing this for so damned long, he's probably 10x's more efficient at breaking down film and game planning then most, but it's still not enough time to wear every hat. Then on top of that, he's also the general manager, the only head coach in the NFL wearing that hat too.

It's just too damn much, but there's still so, so much that BB has to offer as a head coach. The question is will he be open to bringing in help, and listening to them and relying on them going forward moreso than he has in the past 4-5 years. I'm willing to see it through, but I don't begrudge folks that aren't.

 

[CaptainLaddie]

Goddamn, @Deathofthebambino. I know better than to ever disagree with you, but I couldn't agree with you more on all of this. Thank you for taking the stupid parts of my brain and making them cogent and smart. Couldn't agree with everything you've said harder.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Agreed, great post, @Deathofthebambino

 

[NDame616]

With every passing day the odds get higher and higher that he is back correct? Good coaches go quickly and I'd think that Vrabel has already taken phone calls. Hell is someone calls Mayo at this point I'd think he'd set up interviews at this point.

 

[joe dokes]

I think this is a good post vis a vis the actual responsibilities a head coach has to handle in the NFL in today's world.

And I think it's also why BB is struggling over the last 4-5 years. He's never had a singular orientation, but he's, IMO, the greatest defensive mind the game has ever seen. He knows how to find players on defense late in drafts, in free agency, he knows how to move them around, he knows how to maximize their strengths and minimize their weaknesses, he knows what other teams are going to do and how to counter them and if they surprise him, he knows how to adjust to it in the moment. He is a master of game planning, of preparation and execution on the defensive side of the ball and he's much the same on special teams.

I've never really thought of Bill as having an offensive mind, but because he's so gifted as a defensive mind, he's able to sit down with a guy like Brady, who possesses, IMO, the greatest football mind of anyone that's ever worn a helmet and show him what the defense is trying to do, and Brady was able to take that information, along with guys like Weis and McDaniels and succeed from there. Bill also had guys like Pioli and Cesario working personnel, working on scouting, he had Ernie Adams in his ear during games. He had Dante teaching the line how to play. And all of these guys benefited from Bill knowing what opposing defenses were going to do or try to do on a week to week basis. We can joke about their failures after they left here, but even guys like Daboll, and Flores and Crennel. Shit, the two guys that appear to be leading frontrunners to take his job, were also players for him who were field generals for him in Vrabel and Mayo.

He lost all of that, in addition to losing Brady. Now he's become the defensive guru, the offensive guru, the special teams guru, the head of scouting, and on and on and on, and I don't believe he has found guys he can trust or rely upon to do the things he's always been able to delegate and frankly, there isn't enough hours in the day to do it all (and if there were, Bill would probably be the guy to use all of them). He has less coaches than anyone in the NFL for a reason. Dude hasn't even had his newly hired Offensive line coach for most of the season. Now, because BB has been doing this for so damned long, he's probably 10x's more efficient at breaking down film and game planning then most, but it's still not enough time to wear every hat. Then on top of that, he's also the general manager, the only head coach in the NFL wearing that hat too.

It's just too damn much, but there's still so, so much that BB has to offer as a head coach. The question is will he be open to bringing in help, and listening to them and relying on them going forward moreso than he has in the past 4-5 years. I'm willing to see it through, but I don't begrudge folks that aren't.

Spot on. And it goes beyond job titles, which I think hangs up people. Let him still be the "general manager" who has the last say. The problem right now is that he also has the first, second and fourth "says," without all those other voices that used to chime in.

 

[Sille Skrub]

I feel like we will find out BB's fate today.

Just a feeling, or it could be this flu I have been battling that is messing with my head.

ETA: Awesome post, Greg! @Deathofthebambino

 

[Jinhocho]

I feel like we will find out BB's fate today.

Just a feeling, or it could be this flu I have been battling that is messing with my head.

ETA: Awesome post, Greg! @Deathofthebambino

Feel better soon skrub. It was an awesome post.

 

[Dewey's 'stache]

I think this is a good post vis a vis the actual responsibilities a head coach has to handle in the NFL in today's world.

And I think it's also why BB is struggling over the last 4-5 years. He's never had a singular orientation, but he's, IMO, the greatest defensive mind the game has ever seen. He knows how to find players on defense late in drafts, in free agency, he knows how to move them around, he knows how to maximize their strengths and minimize their weaknesses, he knows what other teams are going to do and how to counter them and if they surprise him, he knows how to adjust to it in the moment. He is a master of game planning, of preparation and execution on the defensive side of the ball and he's much the same on special teams.

I've never really thought of Bill as having an offensive mind, but because he's so gifted as a defensive mind, he's able to sit down with a guy like Brady, who possesses, IMO, the greatest football mind of anyone that's ever worn a helmet and show him what the defense is trying to do, and Brady was able to take that information, along with guys like Weis and McDaniels and succeed from there. Bill also had guys like Pioli and Cesario working personnel, working on scouting, he had Ernie Adams in his ear during games. He had Dante teaching the line how to play. And all of these guys benefited from Bill knowing what opposing defenses were going to do or try to do on a week to week basis. We can joke about their failures after they left here, but even guys like Daboll, and Flores and Crennel. Shit, the two guys that appear to be leading frontrunners to take his job, were also players for him who were field generals for him in Vrabel and Mayo.

He lost all of that, in addition to losing Brady. Now he's become the defensive guru, the offensive guru, the special teams guru, the head of scouting, and on and on and on, and I don't believe he has found guys he can trust or rely upon to do the things he's always been able to delegate and frankly, there isn't enough hours in the day to do it all (and if there were, Bill would probably be the guy to use all of them). He has less coaches than anyone in the NFL for a reason. Dude hasn't even had his newly hired Offensive line coach for most of the season. Now, because BB has been doing this for so damned long, he's probably 10x's more efficient at breaking down film and game planning then most, but it's still not enough time to wear every hat. Then on top of that, he's also the general manager, the only head coach in the NFL wearing that hat too.

It's just too damn much, but there's still so, so much that BB has to offer as a head coach. The question is will he be open to bringing in help, and listening to them and relying on them going forward moreso than he has in the past 4-5 years. I'm willing to see it through, but I don't begrudge folks that aren't.

This, I think, nails Bill’s situation over the last few years. Also when Bill’s statements from Monday are parsed out, he seems to be saying that he knows he needs more help.
Great Post!

 

[NomarsFool]

I can't remember how much transparency there is on the number of coaches the Patriots have vs. other teams, but it seems like it has been talked about that they are an extreme outlier. Question is, why is that the case? Is it the owners not wanting to spend money on coaching since they pay BB so well? Is it a factor of BB not being able to find people he trusts? If it's the latter, that does seem like a significant failure on BB's part - he simply needs to be able to build a staff, that's a key part of his job.

 

[tims4wins]

I can't remember how much transparency there is on the number of coaches the Patriots have vs. other teams, but it seems like it has been talked about that they are an extreme outlier. Question is, why is that the case? Is it the owners not wanting to spend money on coaching since they pay BB so well? Is it a factor of BB not being able to find people he trusts? If it's the latter, that does seem like a significant failure on BB's part - he simply needs to be able to build a staff, that's a key part of his job.

I'm pretty sure it's as simple as BB wants fewer voices, because more voices can lead to inconsistent messaging.

 

[DJnVa]

Nick Cattles had a pod yesterday and talked a bit about Vrabel as HC and to be honest, I kind of came around on him. Not gonna get into it too much yet, because we don't know (yet!) if BB is gone, but the upshot is:

-his players liked playing for him
-roster issues in Tennessee hamstrung him (he doesn't have full control, was against the AJ Brown trade, etc.)
-has 3rd best record in NFL last 3 seasons as an underdog
-while he's "family" in NE, he never coached for BB

 

[NextBigThing8184]

Vrabel is the only guy other than Harbaugh who has the type of gravitas needed to replace the GOAT in what will be an insanely high pressure situation. If Kraft moves on from the GOAT because of the losing seasons, I can’t imagine he’s going to want to endure 3 more (or whatever) seasons of missing the playoffs. The expectations and need to build an entire front office organization from the ground up is going to be a big challenge for any new coach and GM

That said, I don’t see the appeal of Vrabel. Sure, he has a good reputation with his players. But he can’t seem to manage the offensive side of the ball - 3 OC’s in his tenure with Tennessee and only 2 good seasons offensively. He’s a defensive guy by reputation but only 2 top 10 (points allowed) defenses in his time with the Titans. And if the issue is a lack of talent, why do we think he’s going to squeeze a competitive team out of the Patriots who aren’t exactly star studded on D and are offensively challenged?

He’d need to find yet another OC unless he brings the uninspiring Tim Kelly with him and hope that the new GM gives him tons of talent to work with.

He might be a good leader of men, which is key but staff management, player development, gameplanning…I haven’t seen much there to suggest he’s anything more than mediocre (and could be outright bad on offense). Is he a guy you want to entrust a new franchise QB to?

lastly, if he’s hand picked by Kraft and not the new GM, I have to think there’s risk of the same type of dysfunction and disagreements on talent that Vrabel had in Tennessee

 

[Auger34]

I’m not a Titan fan, and to be honest, I haven’t seen much of them. However, it always seemed like Vrabel got the most out of the roster year in and year out.

At this point I think belichick stays but I think you could do much worse than hiring Vrabel as a replacement

 

[sonofgodcf]

I hope BB stays, but if he's gone and we're bringing back an ex-Pat, I'd prefer Flores over Vrabel. I thought he got a raw deal in Miami and he was a great Defensive Coordinator here. Hopefully he gets another shot at an HC position (and isn't black-balled after his lawsuit); would love it if it's with the Pats.

 

[Archer1979]

I feel like we will find out BB's fate today.

Just a feeling, or it could be this flu I have been battling that is messing with my head.

ETA: Awesome post, Greg! @Deathofthebambino

Yes. DOTB's post nailed it. And get well soon.

Lost in all this is that there is a ton of utility for the Pats in not announcing anything until it becomes an issue. There's a head coach carousel going right now and Belichick is the first shoe that everyone expects to drop before going to the next choice... but the Pats don't have to really announce anything until it comes time to start courting free agents. At which point, and I highly doubt that it gets that far, but to the extreme, every team waiting on the Pats' decision on Bill is behind the eight ball as they've done nothing to fill the void in leadership. At the very least, they're behind in prep-work for the draft as well as attracting FAs. It's a genius troll job if that is the game that they're playing.

But given my luck lately, they're currently busy drafting a press release wishing Bill well in his endevor to pass Shula.

 

[JimD]

I hope the Krafts have done their homework on Vrabel, because they have to act quickly here. If he is their dream choice then do what it takes to land him, otherwise either immediateIy commit to Belichick/Mayo or make the jump to Mayo as HC. Dallying around with Vrabel risks the possibility of Mayo deciding not to wait on the Patriots and leaving for another opportunity - why trust the Krafts anymore if they don't stand by him at this moment? In my opinion, there is a big drop-off in the post-BB candidates from Vrabel and Mayo to two-time HC failure Josh McDaniels.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I hope the Krafts have done their homework on Vrabel, because they have to act quickly here. If he is their dream choice then do what it takes to land him, otherwise either immediateIy commit to Belichick/Mayo or make the jump to Mayo as HC. Dallying around with Vrabel risks the possibility of Mayo deciding not to wait on the Patriots and leaving for another opportunity - why trust the Krafts anymore if they don't stand by him at this moment? In my opinion, there is a big drop-off in the post-BB candidates from Vrabel and Mayo to two-time HC failure Josh McDaniels.

People keep saying stuff like this.....

It's highly unlikely any coach is hired until several weeks from now. You can't interview anyone under contract with another team until after the divisional round. I guess technically you could fulfill your required interviews with all unemployed coaches, but the NFL would be really pissed given that it would be pretty clearly a sham, and with Flores' lawsuit ongoing.....

 

[JokersWildJIMED]

I hope the Krafts have done their homework on Vrabel, because they have to act quickly here. If he is their dream choice then do what it takes to land him, otherwise either immediateIy commit to Belichick/Mayo or make the jump to Mayo as HC. Dallying around with Vrabel risks the possibility of Mayo deciding not to wait on the Patriots and leaving for another opportunity - why trust the Krafts anymore if they don't stand by him at this moment? In my opinion, there is a big drop-off in the post-BB candidates from Vrabel and Mayo to two-time HC failure Josh McDaniels.

There’s obviously a lot going on behind the scenes. Cornich is clearly talking out there, and there’s plenty of smoke on the Atlanta side (for Belichick) and NEP side for Vrabel. But Atlanta is reportedly all in for a major signing so they’re supposedly interested in Harbaugh, so things may need to move quickly.

FTR, Curran is convinced that Mayo is the hire for NE, but Bedard is saying it’s Vrabel.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Vinatieri was 27-35 (77%) in his first season with NE.
Gost was 20-26 (76%) in his first season.
Ryland was 16-25 (64%) on his first season.

Couple additional misses on the season for him. And it helped us with draft position is the way I look at it. Camp competition is where I am at with him.

Kicker % has gone up dramatically since Vinatieri was a rookie. 77% was a very good number back then.

64% is APPALLING in this day and age. There's no way Ryland is in the league next year.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Goddamn, @Deathofthebambino. I know better than to ever disagree with you, but I couldn't agree with you more on all of this. Thank you for taking the stupid parts of my brain and making them cogent and smart. Couldn't agree with everything you've said harder.

I disagree with him a ton but I agree with every bit of his post.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Kicker % has gone up dramatically since Vinatieri was a rookie. 77% was a very good number back then.

64% is APPALLING in this day and age. There's no way Ryland is in the league next year.

Meh... Boswell was at 71% last year and was in the league this year, McLaughlin was at 71 two years ago, still in the league, Badgley and Elliot were both at 73 in 2020, top kickers in the league still. Even Matt Amendola has kicked (though not a starter in all of them) for 3 years despite never breaking 72% and having a career % under 69%. Ryland will probably be in the league next year.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Ryland is worse than all of those guys, can't hit from the right hash mark and generally has a lousy "woe is me" demeanor. It's honestly a miracle he made that kick in Denver, and then he went right back to sucking.

He's done.

EDIT: Missing that chip shot against NYG was incredibly awful. Cost the Pats a chance to win that game. Just unacceptable.

 

[jezza1918]

Ryland is worse than all of those guys, can't hit from the right hash mark and generally has a lousy "woe is me" demeanor. It's honestly a miracle he made that kick in Denver, and then he went right back to sucking.

He's done.

EDIT: Missing that chip shot against NYG was incredibly awful. Cost the Pats a chance to win that game. Just unacceptable.

$20 to a charity of winners choosing that he's on an NFL roster by week 8 next season? I really dont care one way or other, but Im looking for reasons to be interested in the NFL next year and this seems as good as any!

 

[johnmd20]

Meh... Boswell was at 71% last year and was in the league this year, McLaughlin was at 71 two years ago, still in the league, Badgley and Elliot were both at 73 in 2020, top kickers in the league still. Even Matt Amendola has kicked (though not a starter in all of them) for 3 years despite never breaking 72% and having a career % under 69%. Ryland will probably be in the league next year.

64 is a much lower number than 73. Jake Elliot was 94% this year on FGs, by the way. And he’s got a big leg.

Ryland can’t hit a 40 yarder.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

$20 to a charity of winners choosing that he's on an NFL roster by week 8 next season? I really dont care one way or other, but Im looking for reasons to be interested in the NFL next year and this seems as good as any!

You're on. He'll be selling life insurance by that point.

 

[johnmd20]

You're on. He'll be selling life insurance by that point.

Who would buy life insurance from that guy? Fuck him.

 

[Rico Guapo]

2020 average to slightly worse
2021 good
2022 average to slightly worse
2023 bad to very bad.

I'm happy to hear reasonable explanations of why this hasn't been the case, but I'm not really seeing them.

In 2021 the Patriots beat three teams with winning records, in 2022 seven of their eight wins came against backup or third string QBs. You can't control your schedule, or who the opponents QB is, but I think both factors positively skewed results in those years I highlighted.

 

[jezza1918]

You're on. He'll be selling life insurance by that point.

Love it. This bet is not bound until someone chimes in with a George Costanza "witness" gif though Also you have to donate $100 in 2030 if he's so good that he replaces Mahomes at State Farm! No but really, this is a fun little bet...

In 2021 the Patriots beat three teams with winning records, in 2022 seven of their eight wins came against backup or third string QBs. You can't control your schedule, or who the opponents QB is, but I think both factors positively skewed results in those years I highlighted.

Three wins against teams with winning records seems right in line with a good, not great team though? This years Dolphins have 1, Chiefs have 2 just as a couple recent examples.