Are you sure?
They are going to start the season around 2-3M under the tax.
My guess is they might like to stay under.
Trade for Dame?
- Thread starter kazuneko
- Start date
They are going to start the season around 2-3M under the tax.
My guess is they might like to stay under.
I'm sure they can finesse it in the trade by taking back a little less. 10% of Dame's deal is $4.5M, that alone covers several minimums if they need to cut the bottom 2-3 spots, and if it's a 3 team they can take back even less.
The Blazers have plenty of flexibility to make this trade without any real concern.
The other factor of course is there doesn't really seem to be a path to w 2 team deal here, so wrangling 3-5 teams is much harder when dealing at the deadline. Of course at the deadline someone might want Herro an be willing to give up something of value for him
Shams is good at water carrying. But the reality is that Portland has no contractual obligation here to honor Lillard's wishes. If they accept a lesser package to make Dame happy so be it but he/Goodwin should be discussing alternatives here given the standoff. It feels like PDX knows that they can get a better package than the reported Heat deal and are heading towards that objective.
3 way
Celtics get Sharpe, Jovic and Bam
Miami Gets Lillard and Time Lord, a Boston First
Portland gets Herro, Jaylen and all the Miami Picks
They can then Spin off Jaylen and Herro for more picks or remain relatively competitive with those two.
Works in the trade machine.
Celtics get Sharpe, Jovic and Bam
Miami Gets Lillard and Time Lord, a Boston First
Portland gets Herro, Jaylen and all the Miami Picks
They can then Spin off Jaylen and Herro for more picks or remain relatively competitive with those two.
Works in the trade machine.
In a league where superstar players asking for a trade almost always get one because keeping an unhappy star is tough, it doesn't make much sense to trade for one who doesn't want to be on your team because the dynamic is still the same.
Still could be worth it for a team that isn't competitive and doesn't care for the next season or so and thinks maybe they can flip Dame down the road for a better return than what they gave up.
For teams like the Celtics and Clippers that are competitive, their best hope is to keep trying to change Dame's mind.
Still could be worth it for a team that isn't competitive and doesn't care for the next season or so and thinks maybe they can flip Dame down the road for a better return than what they gave up.
For teams like the Celtics and Clippers that are competitive, their best hope is to keep trying to change Dame's mind.
Blazers aren’t trading Sharpe, especially with Dame gone.
Everything that has come out, paints him as untouchable.
Of course even if Dame is unwilling to increase the number of teams he is willing to go to, competitive teams like Boston and LAC should want to be involved enough to help encourage Miami to make their strongest offer.
Remove Sharpe, Sub in Keon Johnson and send a Portland 2nd back to Boston. Still works.
Point i guess is there is some wiggle room there. While I would hate to lose Time Lord, And I normally despise Bam....having him on my team would help in both cases.
Bam replaces TL in Boston,
Johnson becomes the little speedy guard we need to match up with quick Point guards.
Jovic is a Wing/Big Wing who can eat some mins.
(if need be you could also send Pritchard to Miami)
TL replaces Bams D and rebounding in Miami (Scoring is Dame).
Dame is Dame for Miami
They lose Jovic....which doesnt seem like a huge loss.
Portland can either stay "competitive" / sell it to their fans they got 2 young players (IF Jaylen is interested in resigning). Or they can Spin Jaylen and or Herro for more picks.
Portland losses Johnson...but has Simmons Sharpe And maybe Brown (and Herro) as Combo/shooting guards.
That seems to be what is happening.
Just looking from this from our vantage point, Cronin's motivation to get the best deal possible seems to be the roadblock. What could possibly move him off that? It seems to me that his reputation in the league is better bolstered by at least trying to get a "viable" return for Lillard rather than making Dame happy. Of course that might make agents like him - a big part of the job - but that does nothing for the Blazers future or Cronin's standing with his club/peers/prospective employers.
Its hard to fault PDX for playing hardball here - they are almost certainly losing regardless and Dame/Goodwin are asking them to take a haircut on top of that.
I don't think the discount for already selected 1st round picks is related to some immediate depreciation like a car. Jaquez maintains his value just fine vs a future 1st rounder, IF you know that pick will be in a similar 15-20 range. Of course, the whole point is that you don't know.
A huge portion of the value of a future unprotected 1st round pick is there a non-zero chance it ends up being a top 3 pick. Or even a top 1 in a Wemby or Lebron year. Of course taking a recent 1st round player in a trade does not have that possibility.
The range out outcomes with a known player is going to be much narrower and removes the chance of massive upside. That's why the future unprotected picks are valued more than current mid 1st rookies, not because suddenly Jaquez lost value. Plenty of teams would prefer Jaquez over a lottery protected future 1st.
I don't agree. First rounders have greater trade value. It's the same phenomenon as why I'd rather have $5 than a candy bar that cost $5.
Also, they have no salary. The value in a future 1st is....
1. It has upside variability, while small there is a chance it becomes a top 5 pick or something.
2. It has no cap impact at all during your early rebuild, and the player (if you use it) will have low cap hits well into the period you hope to be a contender in.
3. It's a valuable asset to every team, you don't need to worry about position fit or differing player assessments.
What if you can have $5 but you have to use it for a candy bar. And the candy bar you’re offered you like?
Theres no magical immediate deprecation for these brand new rookies versus a future pick in the same range (though I agree with the salary comment by CD… simpler logistically to deal with something down the road).
They just have lost that small % chance the pick could have turned into a top pick via lotto luck. And that’s a significant portion of the value of those far out unprotected 1st rounders.
I'm not an economist but there's value to flexibility / optionality. Everyone will value the chance to take a player they get to choose. Not everyone will value a specific player equally. This fact reduces the trade value of the player relative to the draft pick. I may be wrong.
Time. Offers aren't good right now and the season doesn't start until October. The downside to waiting for a good offer right now is low. Once the season starts there could be issues/concerns depending on if Dame is willing to play for Portland or not while all this gets worked out, so I think that is the first real decision point window on the calendar. The next one after that would be the trade deadline.
By October, things may change. Dame might broaden the teams he's interested in. Players that could be part of deal could get hurt ramping up to start the season. Pressure builds on Miami. Who knows what else.
Yeah, I agree. I don't fault Portland at all. They're in a tough situation and being patient makes the most sense. Every situation is different, but It worked for Philly and Brooklyn. Maybe it will for them too.
Phew, I was worried we would lose a bunch of turnovers with Jaylen going out the door, but we get Bam back in this proposed trade.
I don’t think you’re wrong about that, certainly some teams may not have salary/roster room for a certain recent pick or value that particular recent pick. It narrows the teams that would be interested so a bit less value there.
I just think the biggest difference between the value of a just drafted 1st rounder and a future unprotected first round pick is losing X% chance at a home run top 1-3 pick.
If you give a team a choice of a just selected 15-20 pick vs a lotto protected first rounder a few years away, plenty of teams will be interested in the current pick. It’s not like that player is suddenly a used car.
And I don't believe Miami is trading Bam. What would be the point. They'd be an awful team with that lineup, especially now that all the decent league minimum contract guys are gone
It still works, if by “works” you mean “POBOBS makes a ridiculously awful trade”.
The Celtics wouldn’t do Jaylen straight up for Bam, nevermind Jaylen / TL for Bam and marginal guys (and PDX isn’t trading Sharpe).
Wow, I know trade season is crazy-making but this is next level. There is 0 chance Miami gives up Bam, their 25 year old franchise cornerstone. Not to mention Portland giving up Sharpe...
yup, and if they were willing to trade him, then the Dame trade becomes very simple, and doesn't need to involve 2-3 other teams.
Bam and a pick or two for Dame
If Bam is really what it takes, Miami shouldn't do it. The only players in last year's playoff rotation taller than 6'7 (other than Bam) were Kevin Love and Cody Zeller. They've swapped Zeller for Thomas Bryant (possibly a slight upgrade) and maybe Jovic takes Love's minutes, but they already had major size issues. Take Bam out and they've got the worst big man rotation among playoff teams, by a lot.
Of course. Mentioning Bam is just a clear way of illustrating the point that to pull off a trade like this, teams usually need either a good young player, or (perceived) juicy picks and swaps.
Miami doesn't have either if they don't include Bam, so mentioning him is just a way of publicly re-calibrating the trade to normal standards.
Maybe that extension was less than ideal?
https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/272493/Damian-Lillards-Two-Year-$112M-Extension-In-2022-Has-Contributed-To-Decrease-In-Trade-Value
https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/272493/Damian-Lillards-Two-Year-$112M-Extension-In-2022-Has-Contributed-To-Decrease-In-Trade-Value