Who is going to return kicks?
The much-maligned 2nd rounder may be out the year with a non-contact injury to his right knee.
The much-maligned 2nd rounder may be out the year with a non-contact injury to his right knee.
Virus Alert: Cyrus Jones with "serious" knee injury
- Thread starter SeoulSoxFan
- Start date
Gameplay issues aside, he has seemed like a good kid who took accountability for his mistakes in the past, and it sucks for this to happen to him in what I think a lot of people (and most likely himself) thought could have been a building block year. Hopefully he can get healthy and contribute something to some team next year.
yep. but he also has big upside as a return man. And he may need some ST value to earn a spot on the 45
Maybe, but Belichick would take lower risk, lower reward when it comes to turnovers. I think Foster gets some run with Amendola as the safe guy. Lewis might get some once in a while to test him out.
From what I understand, Foster hasn't returned punts at all this year, which I think is a missed opp, although last training camp he did. I believe he didn't return punts much in college, either. (Edit: Foster returned precisely ZERO punts while at ASU.) The most qualified player still on the roster - don't blink - is Will Likely, who is UNlikely to make the 53.
My guess(es)...
They have Dion Lewis give it a whirl.
They send Amendola out to fair catch for a few weeks until someone gets coached up at that position.
They sign an NFL cast off in the next few days, who has plenty of legit experience fielding punts.
Edit suckage, possibly not all removed.
My guess(es)...
They have Dion Lewis give it a whirl.
They send Amendola out to fair catch for a few weeks until someone gets coached up at that position.
They sign an NFL cast off in the next few days, who has plenty of legit experience fielding punts.
Edit suckage, possibly not all removed.
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Amendola for punts (just for week 1, until they figure out who to do it who's less injury prone and less valuable)
Lewis for kicks, more than week 1, but same injury issues as above. Next 40 hours or so should be fun, could be more turnover than expected. A little too early to tell. Also depends who makes it through waivers onto PS, in terms of finding out where we have depth. If Carr makes it onto PS, for example, more likely that Amendola returns punts more than just week 1.
Maybe Bolden will be in the discussion too, as I have a feeling he makes the team for ST reasons. He's one of the biggest beneficiaries of the injury, with Will.
Lewis for kicks, more than week 1, but same injury issues as above. Next 40 hours or so should be fun, could be more turnover than expected. A little too early to tell. Also depends who makes it through waivers onto PS, in terms of finding out where we have depth. If Carr makes it onto PS, for example, more likely that Amendola returns punts more than just week 1.
Maybe Bolden will be in the discussion too, as I have a feeling he makes the team for ST reasons. He's one of the biggest beneficiaries of the injury, with Will.
Might be blasphemous to suggest this but.....how about Brandin Cooks? It's BB so you know about how he feels about the importance of ST.
Yeah, that ain't happening.
Besides the obvious importance of him staying healthy...
...since his rookie year when he returned 10, he only did so twice in 2015 then only a single punt in 2016.
His only kick-off return also happened on his rookie year. None since.
Really funny to read how worried people are about PR with Cyrus out. I wanted that guy nowhere near that job even with two good knees. If the kid was a 6th round pick he wouldn't be here. He's not good. I honestly feel bad for him though. Maybe the injury and rehab afterwards will give him time to get his head on straight.
I would think Lewis was going to be the KR even with Cyrus healthy. PR could go a few different ways. Dola is the obvious answer. Wouldn't mind seeing what Burkhead can do back there. He doesn't have a ton of experience but he has done it before.
I would think Lewis was going to be the KR even with Cyrus healthy. PR could go a few different ways. Dola is the obvious answer. Wouldn't mind seeing what Burkhead can do back there. He doesn't have a ton of experience but he has done it before.
I wonder if this injury saved him from getting cut anyways. There's a good chance he wasn't going to make the team, but there's not much benefit to cutting him now. They'd have almost a $900k cap hit.
I hope he is smart enough to invest the $1.5 million he's earned so far, he may not make much more than that.
I hope he is smart enough to invest the $1.5 million he's earned so far, he may not make much more than that.
Amendola seems like the obvious guy to me - he was the primary punt returner last year, after all. While he may play a bigger role with Edelman's injury, the Patriots also added Cooks. I don't think Amendola is going to start playing 70% of snaps or anything.
They still need a backup PR, and they also run a two-returner set (Edelmam was actually second on the team in punt returns in 2016) and I don't know who that is. Chung seems like more of a "break glass in case of emergency" option.
They still need a backup PR, and they also run a two-returner set (Edelmam was actually second on the team in punt returns in 2016) and I don't know who that is. Chung seems like more of a "break glass in case of emergency" option.
I still vote for fair catching every single punt so no chance of fumbling or holding calls. I'd love to see an analysis of whether returning punts is actually beneficial.
I seriously doubt it but I have the data to look into this. The other thing you have to consider is that if you fair caught every punt, it would change how teams punt to you. I imagine most of the league's punters could boom 50+-yarders with regularity if they didn't have to worry about what happens afterwards.
You'd have to have a pretty high fumble rate to make returning punts not beneficial, I'd think.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2003/how-many-points-turnover-worth
This is very back of the envelope and I'm interested to see further analysis, but if a turnover is worth around 4 points or 50 yards, and you could average 10 yards per return, you'd very roughly need to fumble every 6 or so returns to make it not a good idea. If you're that bad you're going to be removed from returning punts anyway. Note that you can also fumble on a fair catch, and if you're fumbling a lot on punt returns you're probably more likely to fumble on a fair catch try.
The calculus probably changes a little in favor of fair catching when you have a good offense and are ahead in the game, which will describe the Patriots a lot, but I'd be shocked if "never return" or even "return a lot less often" is a good strategy by the numbers.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2003/how-many-points-turnover-worth
This is very back of the envelope and I'm interested to see further analysis, but if a turnover is worth around 4 points or 50 yards, and you could average 10 yards per return, you'd very roughly need to fumble every 6 or so returns to make it not a good idea. If you're that bad you're going to be removed from returning punts anyway. Note that you can also fumble on a fair catch, and if you're fumbling a lot on punt returns you're probably more likely to fumble on a fair catch try.
The calculus probably changes a little in favor of fair catching when you have a good offense and are ahead in the game, which will describe the Patriots a lot, but I'd be shocked if "never return" or even "return a lot less often" is a good strategy by the numbers.
There is a difference though to fair catching a punt with a lot of traffic around you and fair catching a punt where you could easily run 10-15 yards before any contact, especially a long punt.
On this topic, I hate to see anyone injured and it sucks for Jones. I honestly was hoping he would be cut because while he has talent, there are times where he is the worst player on the field and scares me every time he puts a helmet on.
Good point about how punters would approach this
It's not just turnovers, but also holding and block in the back penalties that seem to happen on a fairly high percentage of returns. The percentage of "clean" returns seems to be low
Yes but that doesn't cause a turnover; it would just make the average return lower. You'd obviously have to account for them but penalties have a much smaller effect and I don't think they're going to swing it in favor of "fair catch every time".
I think you get credit for the return up to the point of the penalty, so if you return ten yards and then there's a holding that allows you to go for a TD, you just get credited for a return of ten yards.
Yeah, his career is officially in "sidetracked" mode. He already had the mental blocks, this injury is rough.
I think his best bet is a fresh start some where else, poor kid.
The counterpoint is that if you are not setting up a return you are more aggressive on trying to block the punt which may force the punter into bad punts.
Seems like the holding and block in the back calls are 10 yards from where the catch is made almost all the time. So those penalties are a net negative 10 yards every time.
Also to the point about punters adjusting - if they outkick their coverage and there is a free 10 yards you just take it and turtle before contact. Seems like an easy adjustment.
They have had bad luck with 2nd round corners; Butler, Wheately, Dowling come to mind.
