Who is going to return kicks?
The much-maligned 2nd rounder may be out the year with a non-contact injury to his right knee.
The much-maligned 2nd rounder may be out the year with a non-contact injury to his right knee.
Could be the last we see of him in the NFL.Would think thats the last we see of him in a patriots uniform.
This is my take.Gameplay issues aside, he has seemed like a good kid who took accountability for his mistakes in the past, and it sucks for this to happen to him in what I think a lot of people (and most likely himself) thought could have been a building block year. Hopefully he can get healthy and contribute something to some team next year.
D.J Foster would be my guess.Amendola?
Austin Carr/Devin Lucien?
But I think it's Lewis
Well said.Gameplay issues aside, he has seemed like a good kid who took accountability for his mistakes in the past, and it sucks for this to happen to him in what I think a lot of people (and most likely himself) thought could have been a building block year. Hopefully he can get healthy and contribute something to some team next year.
yep. but he also has big upside as a return man. And he may need some ST value to earn a spot on the 45Didn't Lewis have some ball security issues last year?
Maybe, but Belichick would take lower risk, lower reward when it comes to turnovers. I think Foster gets some run with Amendola as the safe guy. Lewis might get some once in a while to test him out.yep. but he also has big upside as a return man. And he may need some ST value to earn a spot on the 45
No. Fair catch every punt with Amendola and let Lewis return kicks.Might be blasphemous to suggest this but.....how about Brandin Cooks? It's BB so you know about how he feels about the importance of ST.
Yeah, that ain't happening.Might be blasphemous to suggest this but.....how about Brandin Cooks? It's BB so you know about how he feels about the importance of ST.
I seriously doubt it but I have the data to look into this. The other thing you have to consider is that if you fair caught every punt, it would change how teams punt to you. I imagine most of the league's punters could boom 50+-yarders with regularity if they didn't have to worry about what happens afterwards.I still vote for fair catching every single punt so no chance of fumbling or holding calls. I'd love to see an analysis of whether returning punts is actually beneficial.
There is a difference though to fair catching a punt with a lot of traffic around you and fair catching a punt where you could easily run 10-15 yards before any contact, especially a long punt.I still vote for fair catching every single punt so no chance of fumbling or holding calls. I'd love to see an analysis of whether returning punts is actually beneficial.
Good point about how punters would approach thisI seriously doubt it but I have the data to look into this. The other thing you have to consider is that if you fair caught every punt, it would change how teams punt to you. I imagine most of the league's punters could boom 50+-yarders with regularity if they didn't have to worry about what happens afterwards.
It's not just turnovers, but also holding and block in the back penalties that seem to happen on a fairly high percentage of returns. The percentage of "clean" returns seems to be lowYou'd have to have a pretty high fumble rate to make returning punts not beneficial, I'd think.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2003/how-many-points-turnover-worth
This is very back of the envelope and I'm interested to see further analysis, but if a turnover is worth around 4 points or 50 yards, and you could average 10 yards per return, you'd very roughly need to fumble every 6 or so returns to make it not a good idea. If you're that bad you're going to be removed from returning punts anyway. Note that you can also fumble on a fair catch, and if you're fumbling a lot on punt returns you're probably more likely to fumble on a fair catch try.
The calculus probably changes a little in favor of fair catching when you have a good offense and are ahead in the game, which will describe the Patriots a lot, but I'd be shocked if "never return" or even "return a lot less often" is a good strategy by the numbers.
Yes but that doesn't cause a turnover; it would just make the average return lower. You'd obviously have to account for them but penalties have a much smaller effect and I don't think they're going to swing it in favor of "fair catch every time".It's not just turnovers, but also holding and block in the back penalties that seem to happen on a fairly high percentage of returns. The percentage of "clean" returns seems to be low
+1Gameplay issues aside, he has seemed like a good kid who took accountability for his mistakes in the past, and it sucks for this to happen to him in what I think a lot of people (and most likely himself) thought could have been a building block year. Hopefully he can get healthy and contribute something to some team next year.
Yeah, his career is officially in "sidetracked" mode. He already had the mental blocks, this injury is rough.SSS but he was finally showing something last night, particularly strong against the run.
A shame he will lose a critical year of development.
The counterpoint is that if you are not setting up a return you are more aggressive on trying to block the punt which may force the punter into bad punts.I seriously doubt it but I have the data to look into this. The other thing you have to consider is that if you fair caught every punt, it would change how teams punt to you. I imagine most of the league's punters could boom 50+-yarders with regularity if they didn't have to worry about what happens afterwards.
Seems like the holding and block in the back calls are 10 yards from where the catch is made almost all the time. So those penalties are a net negative 10 yards every time.Yes but that doesn't cause a turnover; it would just make the average return lower. You'd obviously have to account for them but penalties have a much smaller effect and I don't think they're going to swing it in favor of "fair catch every time".
I think you get credit for the return up to the point of the penalty, so if you return ten yards and then there's a holding that allows you to go for a TD, you just get credited for a return of ten yards.
They have had bad luck with 2nd round corners; Butler, Wheately, Dowling come to mind.Ras I Cyrus Jones-Dobson