Week 16. Merry Christmas, Baby

luckiestman

Son of the Harpy
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Jul 15, 2005
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I don’t get how the NFL isn’t a bigger global sport. The NFL is so good. I like most sports but man, I love pro football.
 

scottyno

late Bloomer
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Dec 7, 2008
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Yeah if you want to protect against the 10% chance of a loss on the final play then fine, I just think the Cards needed to risk it with TB12 on the other side.
If you think there's a 10% chance of a blocked kick loss then it's a bad risk, no way he's 10% to make a 67 yarder, probably closer to 1%
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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Sep 10, 2017
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If you think there's a 10% chance of a blocked kick loss then it's a bad risk, no way he's 10% to make a 67 yarder, probably closer to 1%
Ok, so he misses it and it goes to OT, just like the hail mary attempt. But I'd still put a FG make at 50x more probable than than the hail mary completion. If Kingsbury thinks he even has a 10% chance to beat Tom Brady in OT, then he must be a terribly optimistic guy...
 

scottyno

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Dec 7, 2008
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Ok, so he misses it and it goes to OT, just like the hail mary attempt. But I'd still put a FG make at 50x more probable than than the hail mary completion. If Kingsbury thinks he even has a 10% chance to beat Tom Brady in OT, then he must be a terribly optimistic guy...
Jacoby Brissett beat Tom Brady in overtime this year....

And I actually doubt a 67 yard fg is more likely than something good happening on hail mary, and the odds of something bad happening are way more likely with the fg
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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Jacoby Brissett beat Tom Brady in overtime this year....

And I actually doubt a 67 yard fg is more likely than something good happening on hail mary, and the odds of something bad happening are way more likely with the fg
Actually I amend my estimate of 50x more likely of the FG being successful, seems a bit less mostly considering this study done by the Indy Star where 4.5%(!) of hail mary's were successful. (But obviously, based on McSorely's arm that was damn near nil to be successful.) https://www.indystar.com/story/colts-insider/2014/08/20/colts-hail-mary-boomstick-long-field-goal/14331211/

Brissett is miles ahead of McSorely, my evidence is when they show the parents in the stands of an NFL game that's a bad sign .

In any case, Merry Christmas/happy holidays and thanks for the discourse tonight!
 

Silverdude2167

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Oct 9, 2006
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Amstredam
I don’t get how the NFL isn’t a bigger global sport. The NFL is so good. I like most sports but man, I love pro football.
It is a sport only its parents can love.
Least amount of action, most commercials and it takes the longest to watch.

I have only been to a few games, but it is one of the worst in-person sporting events to go to. People will say soccer is boring but in the stands it is a party the entire time.

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cornwalls@6

Less observant than others
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Apr 23, 2010
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from the wilds of western ma
I don’t get how the NFL isn’t a bigger global sport. The NFL is so good. I like most sports but man, I love pro football.
Feels like maybe it is on the rise globally. The international games continue to be pretty well attended , with the foray into Germany this year having been a huge hit. There was also an interesting story on NFLN yesterday about the passion Ukrainian solders have for it, particularly Brady and the Bucs. I wonder if the fact that, I think, outside of the US and Canada, it is not meaningfully played on the youth and high school level hurts it. With a few exceptions, very few players coming from outside the US.
 

cornwalls@6

Less observant than others
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
6,329
from the wilds of western ma
It is a sport only its parents can love.
Least amount of action, most commercials and it takes the longest to watch.

I have only been to a few games, but it is one of the worst in-person sporting events to go to. People will say soccer is boring but in the stands it is a party the entire time.

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Interesting data, but lacking context, IMO. The NFL is a great television product, despite average length of game. It’s cinematic looking, very well shot and produced. And every play tends to hold the attention, in terms of what could happen. An NFL game never feels long to me, whereas, baseball and soccer at least often do. I’m with you on the live part though. Brutal to sit through the tv timeouts, deal with logistics of getting in out, etc. Though not of that seems to be much of a deterrent to attendance.
 

Harry Hooper

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Jan 4, 2002
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James is lucky he didn't injure his own spinal column, in addition to the damage on the receiver.
 

kartvelo

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Huh. So even if it's just a fraction of an inch, his foot is considered out of bounds? Mind-blowing.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Why are the Chargers running the ball down by the goal line? Don't they know you can fumble it that way and lose the opportunity to score? Why are they being so cavalier?
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Feels like he makes one of those types of throws every game. The arm talent is just off the charts.
I feel like there are fewer than even five starters who have Herbert's arm talent but who knows. Mahomes and Allen get more love for their ability to make something out of nothing but I think Herbert excels at this too.