What does Red Sox starting pitching look like in 2024?
- Thread starter JM3
- Start date
This would be my first choice, too.
I agree on nailing down the GM. Otherwise, all the Yamamoto talk goes up in smoke.
I wouldn't count out the Sox, though, because they can fit him into Sale's salary slot after 2024. If they have to pay the luxury tax for one year, fine. The biggest concern I have about him is his size (the other is just the transition problem some Japanese players have). Ohtani had a wonderful transition as an MLB pitcher, but the guy is 6'4", 210 lb. Yamamoto is only 5'10", 176 lb. That's getting into Pedro Martinez and Tim Lincecum territory (both 5'11" and 170 lb in their playing days). If Yamamoto is fortunate and has a career 3/4 that of Pedro, he's a great deal. If he has Tim Lincecum's bad luck, he's got only 4 good years in him - that is to say, it's a disaster. I'd feel a lot better if Yamamoto were 4" taller and 30 lb heavier, but it is what it is.
In any case, baseball, like life, is risk, so I think you have to go for it. Plus, the Sox really have to make their strongest possible pitch to him in order to appease the fan base. Putting these two together, I believe the Sox will be in the thick of things, right along with the other suitors.
I honestly feel the Sox need Yamamoto more than any other major market team right now. They’re going to throw crazy money at him and all the other GM’s will say it was way more than anyone should have spent (and we’ll never know how much they offered).
As of today, at least, Nola has probably made up a good bit of the money he "lost" with a subpar (for him) regular season.
Still someone I'd really like the Sox to target. Rodon got 6/$162M last year. Probably closer to the 6/$175m area for Nola as of today, even though Heyman (huge grain of salt) speculated it'd be lower. I'd be more than fine with giving Nola 6/$175m.
He might not be an "ace", but as far as ANY pitcher can be penciled in for 30 starts, 180 plus IP and performance that is consistently average at worst and "ace like" at best, he's exactly what I think the club needs.
View: https://twitter.com/ByRobertMurray/status/1712899834439782815
cross him off the trade target list
cross him off the trade target list
I've no idea how interested Milwaukee may have been in moving both, but I'm guessing both would have drawn a fair amount of interest. With Woodruff on the shelf, does all of that interest now turn to Burnes? I'm guessing the price of RH, Brewers pitchers with a remaining year of control just went up.
I like Nola, but it is worth pointing out that 2 of his last 3 years have been kinda subpar. And for as much as people crap on the Chris Sale contract, he had a similar record of durability going into his age 31 season that Nola has while certainly being more consistent and better overall. I don’t think that means you don’t ever take risks because you can’t win if you don’t, but Nola would certainly be riskier because of his age. Having said that, I would much rather bet on him than Blake Snell.
Nola’s ERA’s haven’t been great but his peripherals are fantastic; is it just bad luck? His career FIP is 3.38, with this worst years 4.03-4.04.
His ERA has been "medium" in that time frame cause he's been pitching in front of Dombrowski's 9 DHs defense, while his FIP and xFIP have been consistently much better. But even with that caveat (cause hey, it's not like our defence is a lock to do him any favors either), here's what those seasons look like:
2021: 32 starts, 5.65 IP/start, 2.9 ER/start
2022: 32 starts, 6.41 IP/start, 2.3 ER/start
2023: 32 starts, 6.05 IP/start, 3.0 ER/start
By contrast, here's Bello, who pitched very close to his peripherals:
2023: 28 starts, 5.61 IP/start, 2.6 ER/start
So in short, sign me the hell up for Nola if they decide he's the guy.
2021: 32 starts, 5.65 IP/start, 2.9 ER/start
2022: 32 starts, 6.41 IP/start, 2.3 ER/start
2023: 32 starts, 6.05 IP/start, 3.0 ER/start
By contrast, here's Bello, who pitched very close to his peripherals:
2023: 28 starts, 5.61 IP/start, 2.6 ER/start
So in short, sign me the hell up for Nola if they decide he's the guy.
How much of the budget do the Sox outlay for new starters? If Yamamoto is getting $25M/yr, and let's say #3 or 4 Montgomery gets $18M/yr, or Paxton gets $15M/yr, that's already $40M+ for two pitchers or almost $60M for all three. Can someone refresh the narrative on how much we should spend on starters given the upcoming payroll?
How much would an injured Burnes cost in a trade? Not sure I would cross him off the list if the price was right. Absolutely do what it takes to sign Yamamoto for the top spot. Trade for a discounted Burnes with an eye on 2025.
Looking at the redsoxpayroll sheet, we actually have $78m to work with under the 2nd tax threshold. That's using mlbtr arbitration estimates and presuming Turner opting out and declining Joely's option. So I'll amend my figure to $50-60m to spend on starters. That leaves you ~15m to spend on a RH bat, and if you're on the lower end maybe you can start working on a Bello/Casas deal.
If Verdugo gets traded you have another ~$9m to work with as well.
Woodruff will be out all of 2024, and then he is a free agent. MLBTR projects him at $11.6M in arbitration, it seems clear that MIL will either work out an extension with him or non-tender him, making him a FA this winter.
Also it seems clear (to me anyway) that with Woodruff's injury, no way MIL trades Burnes unless they are out of it at the deadline next summer.
Also it seems clear (to me anyway) that with Woodruff's injury, no way MIL trades Burnes unless they are out of it at the deadline next summer.
I feel the opposite. They aren’t good enough with both, certainly aren’t winning with just Burnes and that offense -time to retool. Woodruff/Burnes window has closed.
Woodruff only pitched 11 games in 2023, MIL was 7-4 with him, 85-66 without him.
32, 32, and 30 starts the past 3 seasons. He's definitely getting paid. Imagine how we'd feel around here if Bloom traded him last year for the since DFA'd Harrison Bader.
FWIW Bader hit 5 HRs in 9 postseason games in 2022, NY doesn’t win the ALDS series without him. Montgomery has been great though, as has their game 2 pitcher Eovaldi.
Montgomery has been great and the Yankees chose to trade him. Eovaldi has been great and the Sox tried to resign him, offering him a 3 year contract before he took the 2 year deal from the Rangers (and I am assuming the dollars per year were comparable but I could be wrong). I think fans of the two teams would rightly see those scenarios very differently.
It seems like the key for Montgomery has been embracing his fastball. In the post-trade back and forth, I recall Montgomery saying the Yankees discouraged him from throwing his fastball and Boone attributing Montgomery's success to playing in a bigger ballpark after the trade. In the Yankees defense, it looks like his slow uptick in fastball velocity following TJ surgery in 2018 continued following the trade, to the point that Montgomery is throwing harder now then he ever has previously (which could also come from just throwing the fastball more and with more conviction). Anyway, trading Montgomery and signing Rodon looks like a terrible decision right now but that could change if Rodon ever gets healthy.
So when we try to win the World Series next year we'll need starters who can go deep into games (&/or have a completely stacked bullpen from top to bottom).
View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1715532439596962036
View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1715532439596962036
Oh wow, I’ve been wondering about this exact topic for a while, eager to dig in.
It may help explain all these random pitchers who seem to be making postseason rosters lately after not pitching much in the regular season- an opportunity to try to get an edge with guys batters haven’t seen?
It may help explain all these random pitchers who seem to be making postseason rosters lately after not pitching much in the regular season- an opportunity to try to get an edge with guys batters haven’t seen?
Isn't this exactly how the Sox beat the Tigers in 2013? That was a Dombro team, and probably had some spending limitations? Can't recall. But they started teeing off on the bullpen in the pivotal games in Fenway, the Papi slam and the Victorino one too. IIRC they both talked about how they were able to battle to the point where they knew what was coming and crushed mediocre breaking pitches into oblivion.
Which -- I think? -- lent itself to the next Dombro team, the 2018 Sox, turning to starters in relief situations, replacing overexposed JAG bullpen types with innings from top pitchers with diverse repertoires. Which was genius.
Now it looks like the latest Dombro team is starting to resemble those Tigers in terms of relief options on the downturn.
Which -- I think? -- lent itself to the next Dombro team, the 2018 Sox, turning to starters in relief situations, replacing overexposed JAG bullpen types with innings from top pitchers with diverse repertoires. Which was genius.
Now it looks like the latest Dombro team is starting to resemble those Tigers in terms of relief options on the downturn.
Kimbrel in the 8th seemed unlikely to work out; he’s never really been a guy that has done well outside of the traditional three out save. Surprised they haven’t used Taijuan Walker at all yet.
Phillies used 7 relievers yesterday; the final four each got less than 3 outs. Guess they were bound to find a guy who didn’t have it. Diamondbacks kind of did the same.
In some ways, not letting relievers pitch longer may have been the problem yesterday. Then again, it’s always going to be difficult to win when your starter only gets 7 outs (of course, Arizona’s guy only got three!)
Phillies used 7 relievers yesterday; the final four each got less than 3 outs. Guess they were bound to find a guy who didn’t have it. Diamondbacks kind of did the same.
In some ways, not letting relievers pitch longer may have been the problem yesterday. Then again, it’s always going to be difficult to win when your starter only gets 7 outs (of course, Arizona’s guy only got three!)
View: https://twitter.com/JustBB_Media/status/1717929387440357499
Nice deep dive on Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb/how-good-is-yoshinobu-yamamoto-a-dive-into-his-arsenal/
Nice deep dive on Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb/how-good-is-yoshinobu-yamamoto-a-dive-into-his-arsenal/
This is something that I've seen referenced more in recent months---the penalty for a hitter seeing the same reliever in a series. It figured semi-prominently in Fangraphs writeup of Dusty Baker in the ALCS. While obviously a deeper bullpen is a nice thing to have, I think it is also something that the manager has to keep in mind---you can't just run your same few "trusted" relievers out there every time in a series without there being consequences besides diminished effectiveness from fatigue. A smart manager will keep this in mind during crucial situations and may need to role the dice with someone he otherwise wouldn't go to in a...medium importance situation knowing that it could through a wrench into a his decisions in a key situation later. Say, you're down by 2-3 runs in a non-elimination game----maybe you go with one of your lesser relievers for the heart of the order knowing that you may need your key guys to be able to throw later to those same hitters. And obviously something for us as fans to keep in mind too.
Absolutely. Just adding him to the mix of free agents. He's a former Ohtani teammate & led the league in innings are probably his biggest plusses.
Spotrac did projected salaries & destinations for their top 10 free agents. Here are the SPs (note, at least one of these is crazy):
1. Ohtani: 12/$552m to Dodgers
2. Snell: 5/$115m to Orioles
3. Nola: 6/$140m to Diamondbacks
7. Kershaw: 1/$23m + incentives to Dodgers
8. Yamamoto: 5/$85m to Mets
9. S. Gray: 3/$66m to Twins
10. Montgomery: 6/$110m to Rangers
https://www.spotrac.com/news/predictions-for-spotracs-top-10-mlb-free-agents-2035/
1. Ohtani: 12/$552m to Dodgers
2. Snell: 5/$115m to Orioles
3. Nola: 6/$140m to Diamondbacks
7. Kershaw: 1/$23m + incentives to Dodgers
8. Yamamoto: 5/$85m to Mets
9. S. Gray: 3/$66m to Twins
10. Montgomery: 6/$110m to Rangers
https://www.spotrac.com/news/predictions-for-spotracs-top-10-mlb-free-agents-2035/
If Montgomery gets $180m+ he's going to be vastly overpaid based on running 2 runs ahead of expectation in the post season (2.63 ERA, 4.56 xFIP).
View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1718433824713937258
Agree that those are super low overall, though. On Snell, too.
Not counting Ohtani (not pitching next year) or Kershaw (only pitching for LAD if he comes back), it seems as if there will be a ton of teams going after the other five plus E-Rod, and all six of those guys will do quite well, warts and all (for instance Snell walked more guys than anyone else in MLB).
He's been 17th, 31st & 45th in IP the last 3 years, which is fine but he's pitched less innings than Nola in each of those 3 years, hasn't been overall as effective, is 6 months older & I wouldn't really put him in the same tier.
Especially as he's more likely to drop off during the contract because he's already not a hard thrower & could be in trouble if he loses some mph. I think if someone pays him $180m+ they will regret it, even though I was interested before when he was considered more of a bargain alternative.
You're right. I forgot how slow Nola throws - especially in the beginning of the year before he bounced back.