What does the Red Sox outfield look like in 2024?

[JM3]

Status quo or shake things up?

On the Roster Under Control for Next Year
CF/LF Jarren Duran (L) - 126 wRC+, 2.6 fWAR, 2.0 bWAR - 2 more pre-arb years (27).

LF Masataka Yoshida (L) - 127 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR, 1.7 bWAR - 4/$72m remaining on contract (30).

RF Alex Verdugo (L) - 110 wRC+, 2.2 fWAR, 2.8 bWAR - last arb year, made $6.3m this year (27).

OF Rob Refsynder (R) - 108 wRC+, 0.6 fWAR, 0.2 bWAR - signed for $2m for next year with an option starting at $2m for '25 with escalators (33).

On the 40-Man Roster Under Control for Next Year
CF/SS Ceddanne Rafaela (R) AAA - 144 wRC+, 1.026 OPS (23).

OF Wilyer Abreu (L) AAA - 106 wRC+, .828 OPS (24).

Our Free Agent
OF Adam Duvall (R) - 113 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR, 0.8 bWAR (35).

Free Agents
OF/1B Cody Bellinger (L) - 148 wRC+, 3.8 fWAR, 3.9 bWAR (28).
OF Teoscar Hernández (R) - 96 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR, 1.3 bWAR (31).
OF Joey Gallo (L) - 104 wRC+, 0.6 fWAR, 0.4 bWAR (30).
CF Kevin Kiermaier (R) - 109 wRC+, 1.8 fWAR, 3.1 bWAR (33).
OF Joc Pederson (L) - 113 wRC+, 0.7 fWAR, 0.6 bWAR (31).
OF Harrison Bader (R) - 95 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR, 1.6 bWAR (29).
OF Andrew McCutchen (R) - 117 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR, 1.3 bWAR (37).
OF Charlie Blackmon (L) - 96 wRC+, 0.1 fWAR, 0.2 bWAR (37).
OF Michael Brantley (L) - 127 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR, 1.3 bWAR (2022) (36).
OF Tommy Pham (R) - 118 wRC+, 1.5 fWAR, 1.0 bWAR (36).
OF Randal Grichuk (R) - 112 wRC+, 0.7 fWAR, 0.5 bWAR (32).
OF David Peralta (L) - 94 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR, 0.8 bWAR (36).
OF AJ Pollock (R) - 44 wRC+, -0.7 fWAR, -0.8 bWAR (36).
OF Jurickson Profar (B) - 78 wRC+, -1.5 fWAR, -1.3 bWAR (31).
OF Hunter Renfroe (R) - 103 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR, 0.7 bWAR (32).
OF Robbie Grossman (B) - 92 wRC+, -0.2 fWAR, -0.6 bWAR (32).
OF Wil Myers (R) - 42 wRC+, -0.8 fWAR, -0.7 bWAR (33).
OF Michael A. Taylor (R) - 87 wRC+, 1.0 fWAR, 1.2 bWAR (33).
OF Jesse Winker (L) - 66 wRC+, -0.8 fWAR, -0.7 bWAR (30).

Potential Free Agents
OF Michael Conforto (L) - 97 wRC+, 0.6 fWAR, 0.3 bWAR (31) - $18m player option.
OF Jorge Soler (R) - 126 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR, 0.5 bWAR (32) - $9m player option (technically an opt out).
OF/1B Mark Canha (R) - 98 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR, 1.2 bWAR (35) - $11.5m team option with a $2m buyout.
OF Max Kepler (L) - 108 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR, 1.1 bWAR (31) - $10m team option with a $1m buyout.
OF Víctor Robles (R) - 111 wRC+, 0.4 fWAR, 0.0 bWAR (26) - $3.3m team option.
OF Eddie Rosario (R) - 95 wRC+, 0.4 fWAR, -0.2 bWAR (32) - $9m team option.

The Pipeline
CF/RF Roman Anthony (L) A+ (SoxProspects #2/my #2) - 184 wRC+, 1.078 OPS (19) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2026

CF/RF Miguel Bleis (R) A (#3/#3) - 72 wrC+, .607 OPS (20) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2025

SS/CF Nazzan Zanetello (R) FCL (#9/#15) - 29 wRC+, .339 OPS (4 games) (18) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2027

OF Allan Castro (L) A (#20/#37) - 120 wRC+, .810 OPS (20) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2023

OF Natanael Yuten (B) FCL (#44/#48) - 132 wRC+, .882 OPS (19) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2026

OF Phillip Sikes (R) AA (#46/#70) - 85 wRC+, .667 OPS (24) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2024

OF Corey Rosier (L) AA (#56/#65) - 98 wRC+, .611 OPS (24) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2024

OF Alexis Hernandez (R) A (NR/#53) - 99 wRC+, .686 OPS (21) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2023

OF Juan Chacon (L) A+ (NR/#82) - 103 wRC+, .685 OPS (21) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2023

OF Yosander Asencio (B) DSL (NR/#83) - 153 wRC+, .932 OPS (19) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2026

OF Bryan Gonzalez (R) A+ (NR/#88) - 102 wRC+, .747 OPS (22) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2023

OF Eduardo Lopez (L) AA (NR/#91) - 106 wRC+, .742 OPS (21) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2023

OF Caden Rose (R) FCL (NR/#97) - N/A (22) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2026

OF Gilberto Jimenez (B) A (NR/#83) - 97 wRC+, .695 OPS (23) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2023

OF Andy Lugo (R) FCL (NR/#100) - 113 wRC+, .781 OPS (2022 in DSL) (20) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2025

OF Nelly Taylor (L) FCL (NR/#103) - N/A (22) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2026

OF Albertson Asigen (R) A (NR/#107) - 153 wRC+, .850 OPS (22) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2024

OF Karim Ayubi (R) FCL (NR/#116) - 137 wRC+, .767 OPS (20) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2025

OF Jhostynxon Garcia (R) A (NR/#121) 95 wRC+, .668 OPS (21) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2023

OF Kelvin Diaz (R) FCL (NR/#125) 122 wRC+, .788 OPS (21) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2023

My Bottom Line
I don't really have a strong opinion on what they should do...I think they would be totally fine going into the season with the 4 incumbents + C Note, but if they want to get creative & make some moves, they could certainly do that as well.

Whether to let Verdugo play out his final year, extend him, or trade him will be interesting. & I know some people want to sell high on Duran. That group of 5 does make a lot of sense together, though, especially if Rafaela can hit Major League pitching at all.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

Duran in LF, Rafaela in CF, and Verdugo in RF. Masa is the DH.

If Verdugo goes in the offseason (which wouldn't surprise me), I could see them going after someone on a short deal (Kiermaeier, Pederson) as a place holder for Anthony. They may decide to just use Refsnyder in RF for all I know. I don't think they'll spend big there when they need pitching first and foremost.

 

[simplicio]

Depending on where they are in their playoff chances, I'd really like to see Rafaela up when rosters expand (if not before). The Duran/Rafaela/Verdugo OF feels like my ideal too, but it also strikes me as possibly too optimistic. I want to see as much of Rafaela at the MLB level as possible before winter to get a realistic sense of what we need out there.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Depending on where they are in their playoff chances, I'd really like to see Rafaela up when rosters expand (if not before). The Duran/Rafaela/Verdugo OF feels like my ideal too, but it also strikes me as possibly too optimistic. I want to see as much of Rafaela at the MLB level as possible before winter to get a realistic sense of what we need out there.

What are the playoff (PLAYOFFS???) roster restrictions these days? I know it used to be that a player had to have played on the 25-man prior to roster expansions to be eligible for playoffs but I can't find if they've changed that. It'd kinda stink if Rafaela got called up and was electric but couldn't be on the roster.

 

[BaseballJones]

On the whole, the OF is in pretty good shape with Yoshida, Duran, Verdugo, and Refsnyder, with Rafaela and Abreu waiting in the wings.

But really, I'd love to upgrade from Verdugo. Maybe they need to keep him for one more season, and maybe that's really the best way to transition to Rafaela. I do have a few concerns about Rafaela, as most of us do, but he really does look like a terrific prospect. I think he'd be just fine in RF defensively. But I'd like a good replacement for Duvall - preferably another RH power bat.

But right now the 2024 OF (with current ops and ops+ numbers):

Yoshida: .839 ops, 123 ops+
Duran: .845 ops, 124 ops+
Verdugo: .771 ops, 106 ops+
Refsnyder: .728 ops, 99 ops+

The guy I'd like to add would be Hunter Renfroe. Has already had success here in Boston - the city and environment doesn't faze him. Good power. Can handle RF. And at his age, I don't think he'd cost a fortune because he's not got GREAT power. Just good power.

That group wouldn't have any superstars, but would be just a terrific offensive group on the whole. Currently, here's where they rank among qualified MLB OF in ops:

Yoshida: #9
Verdugo: #25
Renfroe: #30

And thought they're not qualified (as are a number of other guys who, if slotted in the rankings, would change those numbers, but this just gives you an idea), here's where Duran and Refsnyder would rank:

Duran: #8
Refsnyder: #37 (right behind Springer's .729)

So an OF group where you have the #8, #9, #25, #30, and #37 ranked players by ops would be pretty fantastic. Defensively....they're somewhat challenged.

 

[walt in maryland]

On the whole, the OF is in pretty good shape with Yoshida, Duran, Verdugo, and Refsnyder, with Rafaela and Abreu waiting in the wings.

But really, I'd love to upgrade from Verdugo. Maybe they need to keep him for one more season, and maybe that's really the best way to transition to Rafaela. I do have a few concerns about Rafaela, as most of us do, but he really does look like a terrific prospect. I think he'd be just fine in RF defensively. But I'd like a good replacement for Duvall - preferably another RH power bat.

But right now the 2024 OF (with current ops and ops+ numbers):

Yoshida: .839 ops, 123 ops+
Duran: .845 ops, 124 ops+
Verdugo: .771 ops, 106 ops+
Refsnyder: .728 ops, 99 ops+

The guy I'd like to add would be Hunter Renfroe. Has already had success here in Boston - the city and environment doesn't faze him. Good power. Can handle RF. And at his age, I don't think he'd cost a fortune because he's not got GREAT power. Just good power.

That group wouldn't have any superstars, but would be just a terrific offensive group on the whole. Currently, here's where they rank among qualified MLB OF in ops:

Yoshida: #9
Verdugo: #25
Renfroe: #30

And thought they're not qualified (as are a number of other guys who, if slotted in the rankings, would change those numbers, but this just gives you an idea), here's where Duran and Refsnyder would rank:

Duran: #8
Refsnyder: #37 (right behind Springer's .729)

So an OF group where you have the #8, #9, #25, #30, and #37 ranked players by ops would be pretty fantastic. Defensively....they're somewhat challenged.

Verdugo is likely gone. Turner may be too, which will make Yoshida the primary (but not exclusive) DH. Duran looks like a LF to me, potentially a very good one with his speed. Would love to see Rafaela in CF, but his bat will determine how much he plays. This team badly needs an impact bat in RF.

 

[BaseballJones]

Verdugo is likely gone. Turner may be too, which will make Yoshida the primary (but not exclusive) DH. Duran looks like a LF to me, potentially a very good one with his speed. Would love to see Rafaela in CF, but his bat will determine how much he plays. This team badly needs an impact bat in RF.

The Sox are 9th in runs scored in all of MLB. They don't "badly" need anything offensively. I definitely would like to see an upgrade from Verdugo though, no doubt. But this season their real weak spots have been at C, 2b, and SS. I don't mind the offensive weak spot at C, because Wong has been elite defensively. And SS should improve significantly as Story settles in. But yeah, having a top of the line bat in RF would be great, but I don't think it's "badly needed".

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

The 9th best offense in baseball, playing in Fenway no less, is all we should aspire to?

 

[simplicio]

"Verdugo is likely gone" is a pretty huge assumption and I don't see an obvious rational basis for it. Is this a Boston media take?

Our best in-house defensive outfield for next year is Duran-Rafaela-Verdugo, and that looks really good to me. If you want to upgrade Verdugo's bat without compromising that defense, here are your options:

Cody Bellinger.

That's it. That's your option. Dude's probably going to get a top 5 contract this winter based on historical performance and his comeback year, does that make sense for us?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

What are the playoff (PLAYOFFS???) roster restrictions these days? I know it used to be that a player had to have played on the 25-man prior to roster expansions to be eligible for playoffs but I can't find if they've changed that. It'd kinda stink if Rafaela got called up and was electric but couldn't be on the roster.

I don't remember it ever being about playing on the 25-man roster. Playoff roster eligibility has long been determined by being on the 40-man or 60-day IL before September 1. So Rafaela qualifies already.

Regardling Rafaela being called up in September, let's bear in mind that September rosters only expand by two spots. Assuming one of those spots will be a pitcher, that means there's only one extra spot on the bench. Maybe it's Rafaela, but I think it's more likely to be someone else. I think if Rafaela gets a call-up, let alone an extended look in September it means one of two things has happened: 1) injuries to multiple outfielders or 2) the team has fallen out of it entirely (so no need to worry about whether he's eligible for the post-season).

 

[jbupstate]

The 9th best offense in baseball, playing in Fenway no less, is all we should aspire to?

What’s your issue?

The team you supposedly root for hasn’t had a great year from their best offensive player (Devers), had a couple injuries (Duval, Turner) and complete trash in the middle infield being replaced by Story and Urias).

I’ll add a great free agent signing (Yoshida) and breakout years from Duran and Casas.

 

[moondog80]

I touched on this in another thread, because I had the same instinct about upgrading Verdugo and/or Duran. Then I looked into it...these are the OF with a WAR of at least 3 this year:

Ron Acuna
Mookie Betts
Luis Robert
Juan Soto
Aroldis Garcia
Corbin Carroll
Christian Yelich
Cody Belinger (FA)
Kyle Tucker
Julio Rodrgiuez
Fernando Tatis
Aaron Judge
Mike Trout
Chas McCormick
James Outman

For reference, Verdugo is 2.1 and Duran is 2.7. Who are we trading for from that list? I definitely don't want to take a chance on Belinger at the deal I expect him to get.

I'd guess next year's OF is Yoshida/Duran/Refsnyder/Rafaella and another Duvall-esque player on a one or two year deal. Verdugo dealt either for prospects or pitching upgrades.

 

[TFisNEXT]

"Verdugo is likely gone" is a pretty huge assumption and I don't see an obvious rational basis for it. Is this a Boston media take?

Our best in-house defensive outfield for next year is Duran-Rafaela-Verdugo, and that looks really good to me. If you want to upgrade Verdugo's bat without compromising that defense, here are your options:

Cody Bellinger.

That's it. That's your option. Dude's probably going to get a top 5 contract this winter based on historical performance and his comeback year, does that make sense for us?

I really like Bellinger, but he's prob not coming to Boston. He's been quite fortunate to have the year he's having. His peripherals say to pump the brakes a bit. That's not to say he hasn't been good anyway....he has. But he has a .345 BABIP (his previous career best was .313 and his overall career is .286) and he's outperforming his xSLG by over 100 points.

I do think his defense would play nicely in RF, but some other team is likely going to the moon for him with a contract based on his offensive numbers this season that the Red Sox aren't going to be willing to match.

 

[simplicio]

More assumptions that Dugie is gone. Seriously, what am I missing here?

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

More assumptions that Dugie is gone. Seriously, what am I missing here?

I don’t get it either. Verdugo on a one year deal sounds great to me. Trading him to either clear room for another signing or to call up someone who may not be ready seems to be overthinking it.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

More assumptions that Dugie is gone. Seriously, what am I missing here?

I don't get it either. He's been borderline All Star all season and had a slump. What player doesn't? At the end of the year, he's going to be looking like one of the best OF'ers in the league. I always think there's some belief that wanna-be GM's can rearrange everything and end up with a better overall roster. This is like when half the board was believing that swapping out Manny for Mike Cameron was going to be a net positive for the team (oh.... and we'd get a sweet prospect in the deal, like Andy LaRoche!!!)

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I don’t get it either. Verdugo on a one year deal sounds great to me. Trading him to either clear room for another signing or to call up someone who may not be ready seems to be overthinking it.

The biggest OF problem is defense, not offense production. The most obvious answer is right there- Rafaela plays a majority in CF (making CF defense better) and moving Duran to LF (making LF defense better), moving Yoshida to mostly DH. But a lot of people don't really like the most obvious answer.

 

[bosockboy]

I don’t get it either. Verdugo on a one year deal sounds great to me. Trading him to either clear room for another signing or to call up someone who may not be ready seems to be overthinking it.

Not saying it’ll happen, but players with a year left are probably judged on whether they are worth a qualifying offer. If the answer is no, you move him a year early and get value for them.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Not saying it’ll happen, but players with a year left are probably judged on whether they are worth a qualifying offer. If the answer is no, you move him a year early and get value for them.

Of course, that leaves out the other option with a player with one year of control left...signing him to a longer deal.

I feel like the desire to trade him is a confluence of trade deadline hangover and his recent benching. Some folks seem to still be in that trade mindset and who better to move than the guy who recently appeared to be in the manager's doghouse?

 

[clueandaprayer]

We need a RH OF bat who could also back up 1B

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

We need a RH OF bat who could also back up 1B

Any reason that couldn't be Refsnyder? It's been a while since he's played 1B (2020) but he does have over 200 MLB innings there in his career. He's going to be around anyway, so why not pencil him in unless/until a better alternative presents itself?

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

We need a RH OF bat who could also back up 1B

But we also don't want players to play multiple positions!!! Except for when we do....

 

[Benj4ever]

The biggest OF problem is defense, not offense production. The most obvious answer is right there- Rafaela plays a majority in CF (making CF defense better) and moving Duran to LF (making LF defense better), moving Yoshida to mostly DH. But a lot of people don't really like the most obvious answer.

Makes sense to me. It's a little early to pencil in Rafaela as a starter just yet.

 

[TFisNEXT]

The biggest OF problem is defense, not offense production. The most obvious answer is right there- Rafaela plays a majority in CF (making CF defense better) and moving Duran to LF (making LF defense better), moving Yoshida to mostly DH. But a lot of people don't really like the most obvious answer.

I think the main argument against that is what if Rafaela can't hit MLB pitching? There's a real concern there. Hopefully some of that gets answered before 2024.

I don't know enough about minor league defensive metrics and what tools they have to measure them like in the majors....is Rafaela's glove in CF supposed to be on par with JBJ? If so, then they can deal with subpar offense to an extent.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I think the main argument against that is what if Rafaela can't hit MLB pitching? There's a real concern there. Hopefully some of that gets answered before 2024.

I don't know enough about minor league defensive metrics and what tools they have to measure them like in the majors....is Rafaela's glove in CF supposed to be on par with JBJ? If so, then they can deal with subpar offense to an extent.

I think the other question is whether or not Masa wants to be a "mostly DH." Some players like it, some players really don't. I imagine there was some discussion of this in the signing process. But these are actually real people we're talking about.

 

[scottyno]

Any reason that couldn't be Refsnyder? It's been a while since he's played 1B (2020) but he does have over 200 MLB innings there in his career. He's going to be around anyway, so why not pencil him in unless/until a better alternative presents itself?

I'm not sure why the outfielder also needs to play 1b, but Ref is the perfect 4th/5th outfielder for a team that will almost certainly be starting at least 2, possibly 3 lefty OFs next year. He has a 2m club option for next year, which seems like a lock to make the roster.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I think the other question is whether or not Masa wants to be a "mostly DH." Some players like it, some players really don't. I imagine there was some discussion of this in the signing process. But these are actually real people we're talking about.

It's a good question. I've thought that a lot of the times when Masa has DHed this year, it was either when he was nursing a minor injury of some kind or it was a workload management thing. It's worked out as well that the team has alternately had a need for Turner to play the field or a glut of outfielders on the roster. One or both of those scenarios may not be the case next season, and we see him play a lot more in the outfield.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I'm not sure why the outfielder also needs to play 1b, but Ref is the perfect 4th/5th outfielder for a team that will almost certainly be starting at least 2, possibly 3 lefty OFs next year. He has a 2m club option for next year, which seems like a lock to make the roster.

His club option is for 2025. He's already locked in for next year at $2M.

 

[scottyno]

His club option is for 2025. He's already locked in for next year at $2M.

Even better, potentially locked in for 2 more years at minimal money. Dude just flat out rakes against lefties.

 

[JM3]

It's a good question. I've thought that a lot of the times when Masa has DHed this year, it was either when he was nursing a minor injury of some kind or it was a workload management thing. It's worked out as well that the team has alternately had a need for Turner to play the field or a glut of outfielders on the roster. One or both of those scenarios may not be the case next season, and we see him play a lot more in the outfield.

Not the largest sample sizes, buuuuut...

In 258 PAs as a LF, Yoshida has an .891 OPS (140 wRC+).

In 170 PAs as a DH, Yoshida has a .753 OPS (105 wRC+).

 

[kazuneko]

I think the other question is whether or not Masa wants to be a "mostly DH." Some players like it, some players really don't. I imagine there was some discussion of this in the signing process. But these are actually real people we're talking about.

Masa is signed for signed for four more years on a contract that far outpaced even his own expectations. He’s also, by all accounts, a team first guy who is highly unlikely to cause any clubhouse drama. If the team thinks he is the best option for DH they should move him to DH.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Masa is signed for signed for four more years on a contract that far outpaced even his own expectations. He’s also, by all accounts, a team first guy who is highly unlikely to cause any clubhouse drama. If the team thinks he is the best option for DH they should move him to DH.

In theory, sure. But some people don't perform as well at DH as they do when the also play in the field. This goes back to the early Jim Rice days.
As an aside, how do you know that the contract far outpaced his own expectations?

 

[kazuneko]

More assumptions that Dugie is gone. Seriously, what am I missing here?

Totally. It feels like half of this board thinks Dugie leaving is an obvious assumption and the other half can’t fathom why’d they’d want to move him. Since I’m of the mind that there is no good reason to move him can anyone on the “he obviously needs to go” side explain their reasoning. From my perspective, the team’s single biggest weakness has been defense and Dugie has been their best defensive player - by far- all season. Why again is it so important to rid ourselves of him? Do people think he’s going to get us a top of the rotation starter in a trade or something?

 

[kazuneko]

As an aside, how do you know that the contract far outpaced his own expectations?

Can’t find the article now but I remember reading that somewhere at the time of the signing..

 

[Fishy1]

Totally. It feels like half of this board thinks Dugie leaving is an obvious assumption and the other half can’t fathom why’d they’d want to move him. Since I’m of the mind that there is no good reason to move him can anyone on the “he obviously needs to go” side explain their reasoning. From my perspective, the team’s single biggest weakness has been defense and Dugie has been their best defensive player - by far- all season. Why again is it so important to rid ourselves of him? Do people think he’s going to get us a top of the rotation starter in a trade or something?

This is a really good point and why I'm coming around to the move Masa-to-DH position. Rafaela in center-field and Verdugo in right allows us to have the sort of excellent defensive configuration we've missed. Going back to the JD Drew-Coco Crisp teams, the Ellsbury-JD Drew teams, and the Mookie-JBJ teams, having two excellent defenders in center and right field could go a long way toward solving this team's defensive issues. Put Duran in left and platoon him or Verdugo with Refsnyder and you have an outfield that's excellent defensively and optimized to take on RHP or LHP.

The case for trading him is this, basically -- he's miserable against left-handed pitching, and you think you can replace him by promoting Wilyer Abreu, and that as a platoon player with Wilyer Abreu can replace his production, and some other team sees Verdugo's value as a defender and is looking to shop pitching.

I'd be surprised if that Sox go that way: first of all because I doubt Verdugo without some significant prospects attached lands us an starting pitching, and second of all, while Wilyer's bat is exciting in some ways (plate discipline (seriously elite walk rate, 16% in AAA, and pop), he's reportedly an average defender, and asking the outfield to start two rookies seems like an unnecessary risk - if one of them flops you have to move Masa back to left field and get someone else to DH for you... if both of them flop, you're in trouble.

I think they'll explore trading him, but that ultimately the best thing for next year is to keep Verdugo around and have Abreu and Rafaela duke it out for the last outfield spot, with Rafaela probably winning out due to his positional flexibility. Or maybe with Pablo Reyes gone you have room for both of them.

 

[plucy]

Baseball Savant has a new defensive metric, Fielding Run Value, that includes range and arm.
Yoshida has a value of -9 in 501 innings,which is tied for 204 of 210 players who have set foot in left field this season.
Refsnyder is at 0 in 275 innings in LF, while Duran is -1 in 154 innings.
So moving Yoshida to DH would be a defensive improvement in LF.
Installing Rafaela in CF would improve the defense there. But that means Turner is gone, resulting in less offense if you consider Rafaela replacing his bat. And I don’t know if Rafaela replacing Verdugo, while retaining Turner is any improvement in this year’s OF production, which ranks 5th in offense and 16th in defense, overall 8th in value,
I’m still working on a Soto trade.

 

[Brohamer of the Gods]

Not the largest sample sizes, buuuuut...

In 258 PAs as a LF, Yoshida has an .891 OPS (140 wRC+).

In 170 PAs as a DH, Yoshida has a .753 OPS (105 wRC+).

I don't have time to dig in right now, but a good number of Yoshida's DH appearances have come when Casas was benched against a lefty and Turner played first. I'm not so sure if those numbers aren't more of a reflection of Yoshida when he is mostly hitting against left-handed pitchers than any DH issue.

 

[JM3]

I don't have time to dig in right now, but a good number of Yoshida's DH appearances have come when Casas was benched against a lefty and Turner played first. I'm not so sure if those numbers aren't more of a reflection of Yoshida when he is mostly hitting against left-handed pitchers than any DH issue.

I thought about trying to do the work on that, but Yoshida has almost neutral splits L/R.

Against lefties: .822 OPS, 125 wRC+.

Against righties: .845 OPS, 128 wRC+.

 

[JM3]

Ohhh, actually the better argument (not 100% sure it's true), is that he probably DH's more on the road where left fields are larger as he has pretty significant home/away splits:

Home: .900 OPS, 138 wRC+

Away: .778 OPS, 116 wRC+

But who knows?

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I think the main argument against that is what if Rafaela can't hit MLB pitching? There's a real concern there. Hopefully some of that gets answered before 2024.

I don't know enough about minor league defensive metrics and what tools they have to measure them like in the majors....is Rafaela's glove in CF supposed to be on par with JBJ? If so, then they can deal with subpar offense to an extent.

It still is the best way to have him on the roster to break him in slowly then....and it makes even more sense to keep Verdugo. My response was more to all the posters that want to send Verdugo away. You're then dealing with needing two OF'ers since Yoshida is a question mark... one of which is an unproven rookie. Isn't the most obvious and simplest answer:
Keep Verdugo (at least another year) and ease in Rafaela to ML pitching.

 

[plucy]

Ohhh, actually the better argument (not 100% sure it's true), is that he probably DH's more on the road where left fields are larger as he has pretty significant home/away splits:

Home: .900 OPS, 138 wRC+

Away: .778 OPS, 116 wRC+

But who knows?

Home: LF 135 PA, 147wRC+ DH 79 PA, 121 wRC+
Away: LF 123 PA, 133 wRC+ DH 91 PA, 92 wRC+

 

[JM3]

Home: LF 135 PA, 147wRC+
DH 79 PA, 121 wRC+
Away: LF 123 PA, 133 wRC+
DH 91 PA, 92 wRC+

Thx. So yeah...he just hits better when he gets to field.

 

[BigSoxFan]

It still is the best way to have him on the roster to break him in slowly then....and it makes even more sense to keep Verdugo. My response was more to all the posters that want to send Verdugo away. You're then dealing with needing two OF'ers since Yoshida is a question mark... one of which is an unproven rookie. Isn't the most obvious and simplest answer:
Keep Verdugo (at least another year) and ease in Rafaela to ML pitching.

I'm fine with one more year of Verdugo, which allows the team to continue to evaluate him (I think we pretty much know what we have here) but also to see if Roman Anthony can really force the issue next year in AA to become a realistic option in the 2025 OF. With that said, I would like to see some more power in the OF, especially if Duvall leaves.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Thx. So yeah...he just hits better when he gets to field.

It makes sense to have him play LF in Fenway. I know the advanced stats say he stinks, but JBJ would look bad out there by those metrics. My general thought for the OF alignment for next season would be:
Home Games:
Yoshida in LF, Duran/Rafaela in CF, Verdugo in RF
Away Games:
Duran in LF, Rafaela in CF, Verdugo in RF (Yoshida mostly to DH)
with RFSnyder in against tough lefties in the field home or away and Dugie mostly to take a break

 

[KillerBs]

Agreed. If you move Verdugo you need to replace him in the same off-season. Guys that can play RF at Fenway are not easily obtainable.

Yoshida plays some LF, DHs some, Rafaela shares CF with Duran, the OF is set. If you want to go big, you pay to bring in right handed hitting bomber like Soler to DH and supplement in the OF here and there.

 

[TFisNEXT]

It still is the best way to have him on the roster to break him in slowly then....and it makes even more sense to keep Verdugo. My response was more to all the posters that want to send Verdugo away. You're then dealing with needing two OF'ers since Yoshida is a question mark... one of which is an unproven rookie. Isn't the most obvious and simplest answer:
Keep Verdugo (at least another year) and ease in Rafaela to ML pitching.

Yes, I'd agree with you here. I don't think we'd want Rafaela going into 2024 as an unproven starter. If he starts mashing MLB pitching while playing great defense and forces his way into the lineup more often, then great. That means they can let Verdugo walk after 2024 and spend the money on a different need.

 

[LogansDad]

Yes, I'd agree with you here. I don't think we'd want Rafaela going into 2024 as an unproven starter. If he starts mashing MLB pitching while playing great defense and forces his way into the lineup more often, then great. That means they can let Verdugo walk after 2024 and spend the money on a different need.

I feel the opposite. Whether he is in Boston or Worcester, the only way for him to improve the one skill it seems like he really, really needs to work on is by getting every day at bats. If they can't fit him in every day in Boston, then he should start the season in AAA. I doubt they sign Verdugo long term, so I think Ceddane is the future out there, and I think a year of "playing every couple days" will only hurt his long term development.

 

[nighthob]

Totally. It feels like half of this board thinks Dugie leaving is an obvious assumption and the other half can’t fathom why’d they’d want to move him. Since I’m of the mind that there is no good reason to move him can anyone on the “he obviously needs to go” side explain their reasoning. From my perspective, the team’s single biggest weakness has been defense and Dugie has been their best defensive player - by far- all season. Why again is it so important to rid ourselves of him? Do people think he’s going to get us a top of the rotation starter in a trade or something?

It’s not that “he needs to go”, it’s that they could use more pitching, they have an obvious replacement for him, and he has some decent trade value as an average player.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

It’s not that “he needs to go”, it’s that they could use more pitching, they have an obvious replacement for him, and he has some decent trade value as an average player.

What obvious replacement? Rafaela? That's quite a risk, IMO.

If the goal is more pitching via trade, I imagine Rafaela would have even more trade value than Verdugo. Might even turn out to be a sell high situation if his hitting success in Worcester so far doesn't translate to the big leagues (which is a distinct possibility).

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

What team has major league ready pitching to deal and is willing to assume a year, but just a year, of Verdugo’s contract? It’s a difficult needle to thread- it would clearly be a contending team, but one who had a pitcher it doesn’t need, and a hole in the OF. Hard to see a great match, IMO.