What will D-Dom do before the trade deadline?

[kazuneko]

So the Rays just picked up Lucas Duda for Drew Smith, a 23-year-old righthanded reliever who just moved from A+ to AA. The media reports I've read are calling this "a shockingly light return".
Had the Sox acquired him, Duda would have immediately become -arguably - their best hitter, and the middle of the order bat this team desperately needs. Instead Dombrowski spends more on less (Nunez) and leaves the team with an extra utility-man but still desperate for offense. We all know Dombrowski has the balls to pay full price for star players, but does he have a single other redeeming quality as a GM? This team needed Duda. Apparently a low A relief prospect was too much for the GM to give up.....
If we fire Farrell can we fire Dombrowski as well? After all, what is the purpose of employing a GM whose only discernible skill is a willingness to give up top prospects for stars when you no longer have any top prospects..?

 

[SouthernBoSox]

So the Rays just picked up Lucas Duda for Drew Smith, a 23-year-old righthanded reliever who just moved from A+ to AA. The media reports I've read are calling this "a shockingly light return".
Had the Sox acquired him, Duda would have immediately become -arguably - their best hitter, and the middle of the order bat this team desperately needs. Instead Dombrowski spends more on less (Nunez) and leaves the team with an extra utility-man but still desperate for offense. We all know Dombrowski has the balls to pay full price for star players, but does he have a single other redeeming quality as a GM? This team needed Duda. Apparently a low A relief prospect was too much for the GM to give up.....
If we fire Farrell can we fire Dombrowski as well? After all, what is the purpose of employing a GM whose only discernible skill is a willingness to give up top prospects for stars when you no longer have any top prospects..?

I have a really hard time arguing with this post. Why not give up the 20th prospect for Duda? He'd be their best hitter instantly with the added benefit of not becoming a division rival.

I don't know. At least the "they are a first place team" argument is gone. This team had been an absolute disaster since the break, while both the Yankees and Rays have made significant improvements at the expense of the Red Sox.

 

[MikeM]

I doubt the team is considering any moves that will make this applicable for them this year, but this is a fairly large development in the CBA with regard to the luxury tax. It probably rules out Verlander, though, as his salary would make it tougher to keep under that $237M next year if they want to plug other holes in the winter or upgrade a spot (like 1st).

Verlander is definitely out imo, as we do seem to agree that Sox the won't be spending over $237 million in 2018.

Staying under that # long term while still keeping this specific core highly competitive is probably going to require a rather creative approach though imo. Especially factoring in the unavoidable misses we are going to have, and with a potential need to restock on major pitching pieces sooner rather then latter.

I loved DD as the guy making the calls to try and win these last 2 years. I'm starting to question whether he's the guy you still want doing that a year or 2 from now though, when the best course of action to take might call for an aggressive mix of both buying and also selective selling to try and stay ahead of the run away payroll curve. As Kazuneko pointed out above, his ability to come through on a value move side when the blockbuster isn't there is definitely in question atm/imo.

 

[Cellar-Door]

So the Rays just picked up Lucas Duda for Drew Smith, a 23-year-old righthanded reliever who just moved from A+ to AA. The media reports I've read are calling this "a shockingly light return".
Had the Sox acquired him, Duda would have immediately become -arguably - their best hitter, and the middle of the order bat this team desperately needs. Instead Dombrowski spends more on less (Nunez) and leaves the team with an extra utility-man but still desperate for offense. We all know Dombrowski has the balls to pay full price for star players, but does he have a single other redeeming quality as a GM? This team needed Duda. Apparently a low A relief prospect was too much for the GM to give up.....
If we fire Farrell can we fire Dombrowski as well? After all, what is the purpose of employing a GM whose only discernible skill is a willingness to give up top prospects for stars when you no longer have any top prospects..?

I'd assume the answer is that Nunez can play 3B where we have a gaping hole and Duda can't?

 

[Wayapman]

I'd assume the answer is that Nunez can play 3B where we have a gaping hole and Duda can't?

A gaping Devers sized hole? They just called up their top prospect who happens to hit for power which is the team's greatest need at the moment.

1b has given them an OPS under 300 for the last month+ and happens to be a position where a lot more power was available on the trade market. Considering how little Duda went for they really missed the boat on this one

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[streeter88]

A gaping Devers sized hole? They just called up their top prospect who happens to hit for power which is the team's greatest need at the moment.

1b has given them an OPS under 300 for the last month+ and happens to be a position where a lot more power was available on the trade market. Considering how little Duda went for they really missed the boat on this one

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This.

In another thread, Grimshaw pointed out that only 2 Red Sox playoff teams since 1975 have ranked below 3rd in the AL in runs scored, and 2017 ranking 7th currently would be the third.

It is fantastic that this year's team has such great pitching, but you can't win if you don't score runs. Duda would absolutely have helped.

 

[kazuneko]

I'd assume the answer is that Nunez can play 3B where we have a gaping hole and Duda can't?

Are you kidding? So first base isn't a gaping sized hole but third base is? Really?
There are currently 25 first basemen in the league with enough at bats to qualify for the batting title. Care to guess where Moreland ranks? That's right, his .733 OPS is dead last in the Majors.
Meanwhile, in the month of July he continues to hit like Kevin Cash in a slump. Of the 156 hitters in the Majors with at least 75 ABs in July guess where his .395 OPS ranks him? That's right, dead last again. Meanwhile, as Waypaman correctly pointed out, we have a top prospect with power potential at third base and -barring a trade - pretty much no other viable options at first base.
And obviously it didn't need to be an either/or scenario between Duda and Nunez. With the cost for Duda turning out to be a 23 year old Single A reliever, it's pretty clear that Dombrowski could've had both. The fact that he didn't outbid the Rays probably suggests that for reasons no one can fathom Dombrowski had little to no interest, regardless of how low the cost, in acquiring a player who would have instantly been the best hitter in the lineup. Why that would be is pretty unclear, but one possible explanation that immediately jumps out is that Dombrowski may not be very good at his job...

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Are you kidding? So first base isn't a gaping sized hole but third base is? Really?
There are currently 25 first basemen in the league with enough at bats to qualify for the batting title. Care to guess where Moreland ranks? That's right, his .733 OPS is dead last in the Majors.
Meanwhile, in the month of July he continues to hit like Kevin Cash in a slump. Of the 156 hitters in the Majors with at least 75 ABs in July guess where his .395 OPS ranks him? That's right, dead last again. Meanwhile, as Waypaman correctly pointed out, we have a top prospect with power potential at third base and -barring a trade - pretty much no other viable options at first base.
And obviously it didn't need to be an either/or scenario between Duda and Nunez. With the cost for Duda turning out to be a 23 year old Single A reliever, it's pretty clear that Dombrowski could've had both. The fact that he didn't outbid the Rays probably suggests that for reasons no one can fathom Dombrowski had little to no interest, regardless of how low the cost, in acquiring a player who would have instantly been the best hitter in the lineup. Why that would be is pretty unclear, but one possible explanation that immediately jumps out is that Dombrowski may not be very good at his job...

Or that there's a dozen or so factors in trade negotiations we don't know about and will never find out about. Maybe Alderson and DD have a bad history and he was asking for Chavis from the Sox? Maybe the Mets see something in Smith or one of their guys had him at some level and sees a hitch they think they can fix. Or maybe ten other things.

The one possibility that jumps out to me is if it were as simple as trading the equivalently ranked prospect in the Sox organization (by a third party, no less) to solve all the team's woes, I find it hard to believe he's been in the league this long that he wasn't competent enough to pull that off.

 

[kazuneko]

Or that there's a dozen or so factors in trade negotiations we don't know about and will never find out about. Maybe Alderson and DD have a bad history and he was asking for Chavis from the Sox? Maybe the Mets see something in Smith or one of their guys had him at some level and sees a hitch they think they can fix. Or maybe ten other things.

The one possibility that jumps out to me is if it were as simple as trading the equivalently ranked prospect in the Sox organization (by a third party, no less) to solve all the team's woes, I find it hard to believe he's been in the league this long that he wasn't competent enough to pull that off.

The problem is that this seems to be a consistent problem with Dombrowski. As MikeM pointed out above, his inability to come through with value moves is beginning to feel like a weakness of his as a GM. The Sox needed Duda far more than the Rays did and yet the Rays got him for a return that impresses no one. When is DD going to come through with a trade like that? With Dombrowski, it feels more realistic to expect a Votto for Devers/Groome "blockbuster"...

 

[Wayapman]

Or that there's a dozen or so factors in trade negotiations we don't know about and will never find out about. Maybe Alderson and DD have a bad history and he was asking for Chavis from the Sox? Maybe the Mets see something in Smith or one of their guys had him at some level and sees a hitch they think they can fix. Or maybe ten other things.

The one possibility that jumps out to me is if it were as simple as trading the equivalently ranked prospect in the Sox organization (by a third party, no less) to solve all the team's woes, I find it hard to believe he's been in the league this long that he wasn't competent enough to pull that off.

I am by no means claiming DD is incompetent or needs to be fired. The truth is we don't know the WHY behind the Red Sox not getting Duda. I just sincerely hope it wasn't due to lack of pursuit.

There don't seem to be many guys who fit our needs like Duda did at a reasonable cost. 1b with power on teams likely to be selling and willing to deal with the sox:

Abreu
Pujols
Alonso
Votto
Miggy
Napoli

Not sure if I missed any less than obvious candidates. The luxury tax implications and acquisition costs of the players above don't really leave for many promising options

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[Wayapman]

The more I look at the options the more I think Napoli looks like the best potential fit and he should not take too much too acquire. Too bad there isn't a decent reliever to package him with

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[Wayapman]

The more I look at the options the more I think Napoli looks like the best potential fit and he should not take too much too acquire. Too bad there isn't a decent reliever to package him with

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[kazuneko]

I am by no means claiming DD is incompetent or needs to be fired. The truth is we don't know the WHY behind the Red Sox not getting Duda. I just sincerely hope it wasn't due to lack of pursuit.

There don't seem to be many guys who fit our needs like Duda did at a reasonable cost. 1b with power on teams likely to be selling and willing to deal with the sox:

Abreu
Pujols
Alonso
Votto
Miggy
Napoli

Not sure if I missed any less than obvious candidates. The luxury tax implications and acquisition costs of the players above don't really leave for many promising options

The frustrating thing about that list is that none is as good a fit as Duda and most aren't even viable for contract reasons. Clearly the high salaries and long-term deals of Pujols, Votto, and Miggy take all of them off the list. Not only would those contracts push the Sox over the luxury tax this year, they would handcuff the team long-term.
Abreu is clearly the most attractive as he is good enough, and cheap enough that he's got legitimate value. Of course, he'd also probably cost Devers and probably Groome + to acquire (which actually sounds like a move that has all the makings of a stereotypical Dombrowski trade)..
That leaves Napoli and Alonso as the only options comparable to what Duda could have brought (i,e. a good bat without having to give up much in talent or pay much in salary).
The problem with Napoli: it's not clear he can hit righties anymore. He has a .709 OPS against RHP this year. Meanwhile the 2017 version of YONDER ALONSO is beginning to revert to the Yonder Alonso we all remember from before this season. He has a post-All Star OPS of .602 and has monthly OPS's below .800 for both June and July...
I guess if the acquisition cost was low enough I'd probably target Alonso, but it wouldn't be surprising if he costs more to acquire than Duda, and yet still ends up producing far less at the plate.....

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

The problem is that this seems to be a consistent problem with Dombrowski. As MikeM pointed out above, his inability to come through with value moves is beginning to feel like a weakness of his as a GM. The Sox needed Duda far more than the Rays did and yet the Rays got him for a return that impresses no one. When is DD going to come through with a trade like that? With Dombrowski, it feels more realistic to expect a Votto for Devers/Groome "blockbuster"...

And the problem with your surface analysis, again, is that you have no idea what the Mets were asking for Duda. That may or may not have something to do with DD himself being a poor negotiator or it just may be different valuations on the players discussed with Alderson. Or, again, a dozen other factors.

Was a Brad Ziegler not a good value trade last year? What about Nunez? Abad certainly looked like one at the time.

He makes trades and people bitch he gave up too much. He seemingly takes a pass and people bitch he didn't give up enough. All the while we know literally nothing about the trade talks.

But yes, let's fire him because he doesn't make enough small moves for marginal players.

 

[kazuneko]

And the problem with your surface analysis, again, is that you have no idea what the Mets were asking for Duda. That may or may not have
But yes, let's fire him because he doesn't make enough small moves for marginal players.

Sure, I suppose there is a chance that Alderson was just irrationally infatuated with Smith and none of this is Dombrowski's fault, but Duda would have been a significant move for marginal cost that instead will be that very thing for a divisional rival. Fair or not, its a big win for the Rays and a big loss for the Sox and as the General Manager of the team it's Dombrowski whose left looking bad...

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Sure, I suppose there is a chance that Alderson was just irrationally infatuated with Smith and none of this is Dombrowski's fault, but Duda would have been a significant move for marginal cost that instead will be that very thing for a divisional rival. Fair or not, its a big win for the Rays and a big loss for the Sox and as the General Manager of the team it's Dombrowski whose left looking bad...

Ok, let me try a different way.

Prospect rankings, first off, aren't a linear decline from spot to spot. There's cliffs and once you get past, say, the top maybe 5-10 (depending on depth) in any organization, you hit shelves the true differences are razor thin and they vary by who is making the judgment and further that by factoring in third party assessments and organizational ones.

Keith Law may have Smith ranked #10 in the Rays system. MLB had him 30. BA could view him as #20. And BP or Sickels or any number of others could have him at completely different numbers. (I'll also add that MLB.com isn't really where you want to go for prospect rankings, but whatever, that's beside the point). And all these might mean shit compared to where he Mets have him ranked, compared to where they have Sox guys in a similar boat ranked. Maybe not specifically ranking but overall assessment. Every team has their own scouting. None are equal or line up. And philosophy means a lot.

Maybe the Mets put more value on minor league pedigreed relievers. Maybe they aren't impressed with someone like Chavis or his injury history. So they grade out similarly. It's not necessarily irrational, it's just not coherent with what we have access to.

Regardless of if you agree or don't with that - either is perfectly reasonable - I think it's a far leap to suggest Lucas Duda is the difference between us winning a WS or not and that DD should be fired for not acquiring him because TB got him for someone we deign worthless. Let's not string him up for a trade that likely won't mean much on the ledger end of day.

 

[MikeM]

Was a Brad Ziegler not a good value trade last year? What about Nunez? Abad certainly looked like one at the time.

I wasn't doing any cartwheels for Abad at the time, but combining him with Ziegler is what keeps it at questionable for me. Although his recent activity pending, a GM's ability to dig up decent relief pitcher dumps on the relative cheap is probably at the bottom end of that value acquisition tree nowadays.

Nunez was the rough equivalent of coming home to see your house of fire, pulling up a chair to watch while it burns down to a smoldering ash, and then finally rushing in with the garden hose after the fire truck had already pulled up to the curb. Sure it may be helping some, but he's not getting any "better late then never" value points from me on that one.

 

[Devizier]

I was also disappointed that the Sox missed on Duda -- apparently weren't even interested -- but it's worth saying that some of the moves the Sox passed on earlier this year (signing or trading for Plouffe, for example) they were wise not to make.

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

You know things are going by pretty badly with the offense when posters start claiming that Lucas Duda would be the best hitter in our lineup.

Don't get me wrong, I'd rather have him than Moreland at this point, but let's not get carried away.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

You know things are going by pretty badly with the offense when posters start claiming that Lucas Duda would be the best hitter in our lineup.

Don't get me wrong, I'd rather have him than Moreland at this point, but let's not get carried away.

Its actually harder to make the case he wouldn't be the best hitter on the team rather than making the case that he would be the best. That's how bad things are right now. It's an historically bad slugging team that's becoming worse.

 

[sean1562]

Hasn't votto said multiple times that he doesn't want to leave the reds? He has a no trade clause

http://www.espn.com/blog/mlb/rumors/post/_/id/31681/mlb-rumor-central-joey-votto-wont-waive-no-trade-clause

 

[grimshaw]

There is nothing not to like about Votto. He is always studying and tinkering with ways to improve and is supposedly funny and approachable. You have to admire him wanting to stick it out with a terrible team.
Maybe he'll go the Ray Bourque route towards the end.

 

[Wayapman]

The frustrating thing about that list is that none is as good a fit as Duda and most aren't even viable for contract reasons. Clearly the high salaries and long-term deals of Pujols, Votto, and Miggy take all of them off the list. Not only would those contracts push the Sox over the luxury tax this year, they would handcuff the team long-term.
Abreu is clearly the most attractive as he is good enough, and cheap enough that he's got legitimate value. Of course, he'd also probably cost Devers and probably Groome + to acquire (which actually sounds like a move that has all the makings of a stereotypical Dombrowski trade)..
That leaves Napoli and Alonso as the only options comparable to what Duda could have brought (i,e. a good bat without having to give up much in talent or pay much in salary).
The problem with Napoli: it's not clear he can hit righties anymore. He has a .709 OPS against RHP this year. Meanwhile the 2017 version of YONDER ALONSO is beginning to revert to the Yonder Alonso we all remember from before this season. He has a post-All Star OPS of .602 and has monthly OPS's below .800 for both June and July...
I guess if the acquisition cost was low enough I'd probably target Alonso, but it wouldn't be surprising if he costs more to acquire than Duda, and yet still ends up producing far less at the plate.....

Napoli could eventually form a decent platoon w Moreland and Hanley mixed in occasionally. The extra rest should hopefully get Moreland back to respectable numbers and keep all 3 fresh.

Moreland has generally had a traditional split so he should be able to complement Napoli pretty well. Between the 2 of them we should at least get an 800-850 OPS out of 1b going forward

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[Rasputin]

Maybe DD can trot out the old DD's "more days in first place" when he gives a post-mortem on the 2017 because they're 2 innings from losing first place.

I am currently in an ambulance on the way to the ER because I sprained my goddamn eyeballs rolling them too hard.

 

[JohntheBaptist]

I am currently in an ambulance on the way to the ER because I sprained my goddamn eyeballs rolling them too hard.

Hey come hang out when you get here, there's like 10-15 of us who have to visit regularly when you post your usual "this team is actually really good" blah blah blahs.

 

[Rasputin]

Hey come hang out when you get here, there's like 10-15 of us who have to visit regularly when you post your usual "this team is actually really good" blah blah blahs.

I thought the rancid negativity was asinine before we won the world series. It's so much goddamn worse now. I mean, it's one thing when you're talking about teams that are finishing fourth or worse or whatever, but fucking hello, this team is half a game out of first place and everyone is pissing and moaning. I mean, fucking seriously, if you don't think this is a good team you're not looking. If you can't enjoy this team you're just a fucking miserable bastard.

 

[JohntheBaptist]

I thought the rancid negativity was asinine before we won the world series. It's so much goddamn worse now. I mean, it's one thing when you're talking about teams that are finishing fourth or worse or whatever, but fucking hello, this team is half a game out of first place and everyone is pissing and moaning. I mean, fucking seriously, if you don't think this is a good team you're not looking. If you can't enjoy this team you're just a fucking miserable bastard.

The guy you were responding to made the obvious point that the 1B production from this team is likely to be a major handicap. No one is "pissing and moaning," just a few adults trying to identify a weakness on a team they follow and express the level to which that weakness could effect them for the remainder of the season. You're right though, technically speaking it is possible to continue the production they've had from 1B the last month and still succeed. I bet you're right and SoBo "knows this" (sorry, hold on, eye-roll ER visit time again) too. Positivity has gotten you far in sizing that up.

Please please please can it with the adolescent "if you can't enjoy the team you're a so and so" nonsense. I'm sure SoBo and CoffeeNerd enjoy things just fine. You might even suggest getting on the internet to spend time talking about how the team could be better before the trade deadline might indicate that.

 

[RedOctober3829]

St. Louis writer said Red Sox scouts were in town and mentions them as interested in Lance Lynn.

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/lou-brock-says-his-cancer-is-gone/article_fdf6b127-ba9c-575a-8f3b-92d4b0055e57.amp.html

 

[bosockboy]

St. Louis writer said Red Sox scouts were in town and mentions them as interested in Lance Lynn.

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/lou-brock-says-his-cancer-is-gone/article_fdf6b127-ba9c-575a-8f3b-92d4b0055e57.amp.html

I read that as speculation. Where did it say we were there scouting?

 

[RedOctober3829]

I read that as speculation. Where did it say we were there scouting?

Goold says Boston was in town but was vague on reason. Says it could be due diligence on upcoming series in August.

 

[grimshaw]

No one else makes a lot of sense unless they want to look at Rosenthal or Oh. Or Lou Brock.

Though I love me some Matt Carpenter, doubt they want to move good players under contract.

 

[kazuneko]

Napoli could eventually form a decent platoon w Moreland and Hanley mixed in occasionally. The extra rest should hopefully get Moreland back to respectable numbers and keep all 3 fresh.

Moreland has generally had a traditional split so he should be able to complement Napoli pretty well. Between the 2 of them we should at least get an 800-850 OPS out of 1b going forward

Any plan that relies on Moreland to be the primary first baseman doesn't seem wise - especially since Alonso is still available. Moreland has been the worst hitter at his position in the league this year and the worst hitter in baseball for over a month now, and although it's likely the foot injury is a big factor who knows if/when he recovers from that. Why he isn't already on the DL is beyond me.
The only positive about the Duda trade is that it sets the market for first basemen (with expiring contracts) pretty low. With Duda off the market, Alonso is the best option available. DD really needs to get this done...

 

[Clears Cleaver]

Would anyone really be upset if DD did nothing? The team isn't winning anything this year and the idea of trading anything of value for a rental seems incredibly stupid. When added my personal opinion that the Eed Sox scouting department is about two years behind and I say trade only of getting rid of flotsam

 

[E5 Yaz]

Any plan that relies on Moreland to be the primary first baseman doesn't seem wise - especially since Alonso is still available. Moreland has been the worst hitter at his position in the league this year and the worst hitter in baseball for over a month now, and although it's likely the foot injury is a big factor who knows if/when he recovers from that. Why he isn't already on the DL is beyond me.
The only positive about the Duda trade is that it sets the market for first basemen (with expiring contracts) pretty low. With Duda off the market, Alonso is the best option available. DD really needs to get this done...

Alonso has hit .208 in July

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Alonso has hit .208 in July

And nearly half of his home run production came in the month of May. He's not the answer.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Alonso has hit .208 in July

Yeah, I don't understand anyone pining for that guy.

 

[Wayapman]

Any plan that relies on Moreland to be the primary first baseman doesn't seem wise - especially since Alonso is still available. Moreland has been the worst hitter at his position in the league this year and the worst hitter in baseball for over a month now, and although it's likely the foot injury is a big factor who knows if/when he recovers from that. Why he isn't already on the DL is beyond me.
The only positive about the Duda trade is that it sets the market for first basemen (with expiring contracts) pretty low. With Duda off the market, Alonso is the best option available. DD really needs to get this done...

I didn't necessarily mean a strict RvL and LvR platoon. Mixing and matching between Napoli, Moreland and Hanley should be more than adequate offensively. Maybe not "masher" status but an 800-850 OPS would be a massive improvement. Heck when Moreland was giving us that on his own, the team was playing well and the offense was relatively productive.

Combine that with a bump from 3b in Nunez and Devers and the offense should emerge from the doldrums to at least above average in the AL. The SP has already shown the ability for extreme dominance but prices injury complicates things

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[sketz]

Would anyone really be upset if DD did nothing?

I'm fine with standing pat. Without blowing past the LT threshold (which I assume to be the plan), I don't see a difference maker out there that doesn't drastically thin out the farm. And if the offense as a whole doesn't pick it up significantly, I don't think one guy will make a huge difference. If they do pick it up, then I'll take my chances in the playoffs with what we have.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

You know, Nunez might have a good enough swing for Fenway to make a difference.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

You know, Nunez might have a good enough swing for Fenway to make a difference.

Home runs since the start of the 2015 season:

Edit: Added doubles too.

 

[bosockboy]

The Sox rumor mill is dead silent. No news in several days.

 

[edoug]

If not Hand but what about Kirby Yates from the Padres?

 

[MikeM]

I don't even think it's possible to be in the market for a decent RP right now and not find something.

DD will dig something up there at least.

 

[kazuneko]

And nearly half of his home run production came in the month of May. He's not the answer.

Alonso has hit .208 in July

Really? Is batting average how SOSH now defines hitting production? While it's true that Alonso has a .213 average for July, he also has .723 OPS for the month and while that's not exactly All Star caliber, lets be clear - it's nearly double the last in the league OPS that Mitch Moreland (i.e. who the Sox end up with at 1B without a trade) has put up for July. Also, while it's true that Alonso hit 10 home runs in May he also has hit 11 home runs in non-May months, which is exactly 1 more home run than Mookie Betts (the current team leader in home runs, who - I guess - also only hits home runs in May) has hit in non-May months this year. So while I will freely admit that Duda was a far better option for 1B, he is now off the table, leaving Alonso as the best available option that doesn't cost the Sox Devers and Groome (i.e. the best option not named Jose Abreu). The fact that it's likely that Alonso won't cost much more than a low minors lottery ticket (which is all Duda cost the Rays) makes it even more obvious that it would be wise for DD to target him in a trade...

 

[benhogan]

Would anyone really be upset if DD did nothing? The team isn't winning anything this year and the idea of trading anything of value for a rental seems incredibly stupid. When added my personal opinion that the Eed Sox scouting department is about two years behind and I say trade only of getting rid of flotsam

Most off-seasons I'm in the stand pat mode, let's see how the internal players/prospects perform before going and spending a bundle on other players. But during the season the GM needs to address the weaknesses as they play out over the first 100 games. Then add the necessary players, especially marginal ones, like Nunez and Duda that aren't costly.

While the Astros and Dodgers look unstoppable this year, we do have the best starter in baseball and a top 3 closer. This makes the Sox a dangerous team in a 7 game playoff series. DD has spent a lot of the farm over the last year on a 'go for it now' strategy, I can't imagine he'll stop now. He needs to add a hitter (1st base) and a setup man to get this team into the playoff lottery.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Really? Is batting average how SOSH now defines hitting production? While it's true that Alonso has a .213 average for July, he also has .723 OPS for the month and while that's not exactly All Star caliber, lets be clear - it's nearly double the last in the league OPS that Mitch Moreland (i.e. who the Sox end up with at 1B without a trade) has put up for July. Also, while it's true that Alonso hit 10 home runs in May he also has hit 11 home runs in non-May months, which is exactly 1 more home run than Mookie Betts (the current team leader in home runs, who - I guess - also only hits home runs in May) has hit in non-May months this year. So while I will freely admit that Duda was a far better option for 1B, he is now off the table, leaving Alonso as the best available option that doesn't cost the Sox Devers and Groome (i.e. the best option not named Jose Abreu). The fact that it's likely that Alonso won't cost much more than a low minors lottery ticket (which is all Duda cost the Rays) makes it even more obvious that it would be wise for DD to target him in a trade...

The point is that May is an extreme outlier and that outside of that, Alonso has more closely resembled the guy he's always been. So unless you think Moreland is not healing and not likely to any time soon, or that he's suddenly and inexplicably become a .384 OPS hitter, going forward Alonso likely doesn't represent a significant upgrade over Moreland. Maybe 5-10% more production relative to league average and probably similar power numbers.

That's not worth expending limited resources (prospects and space under the LT threshold) for when the far more glaring need is the bullpen. I get wanting to add power. I think they need to if they want to win in October. I but if they don't plug the hole in the bullpen, that power upgrade probably wouldn't matter anyway and I'm not sure they can do both. I'd rather hope that Devers provides that power boost and grab a reliever than pick up Alonso and hope the house of cards that is Kelly's season continues to hold up if he can even get healthy in the first place.

 

[grimshaw]

Dombrowski' seeming indifference towards Frazier and Duda indicates to me one of three things.

a) He already knows he can get something done with a player we don't know about, that he is waiting to pull the trigger on. Timing is really key this time of year so other teams can't react. His track record is to just about always do something. There was one year he stood pat when they were competitive - otherwise he's made splashes.

b) He couldn't afford eating both Duda's and a relievers salary without giving up more than he'd like in cost for prospects and legitimately does believe that upgrading the pen is what helps push them over the top more.

c) They knew something we were overlooking about Nunez' power playing a lot better at Fenway, and his acquisition cost made too much sense.

I don't believe they don't think upgrading at DH/1B would be a big improvement. Of course it would be.
Duda (.293/.364/.492) has been for his career what Hanley (.286/.361/.505) was last year and we would all take moving Hanley off 1b over to DH with Moreland riding pine.

I just think the reasons above are more likely.

 

[Wingack]

Rosenthal: Red Sox focused on Addison Reed.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I'd prefer Reed to Wilson for several reasons. Not the least of which is that I think he'll cost less. He'd make a fine setup man, pushing everyone else down a peg.

 

[chawson]

I'd prefer Reed to Wilson for several reasons. Not the least of which is that I think he'll cost less. He'd make a fine setup man, pushing everyone else down a peg.

The under-the-radar target I'd want is David Hernandez. 1.82 FIP, zero home runs allowed in 35 innings. Got a higher swinging strike rate than Reed (at 13.5%) and would add pennies to the payroll.