Good point about his protection.
True, but the next QB is replacing Mac Jones, which is orders of magnitude easier than replacing Tom Brady.
It's ball security, reckless decision making, not processing and winning consistently enough in the pocket. Williams has some warts to his game. I can see why people want to stay away. Me personally? I have my concerns with Williams but I am drafting him 1,1... I think.
I think Caleb Williams creates his own pressure. Early in the year every Williams highlight was him taking 5, 6, 10 seconds to make a throw, rolling out of clean pockets and getting in trouble. He's like if Russ Wilson was faster but a lot dumber.
This tracks with what I have seen of Williams.
For all that I'm not as sold on WIlliams as others... I'd still take him. I get the idea people have that Harrison seems more sure, but the thing to me is....
ITA. They need a franchise QB--but we have no idea if Williams, Maye, or any other QB available in the draft can be that guy. That seems like a big risk when a potentially generational talent like MHJ may be there.
Why? We have a pretty long track record to say that top WRs don't really matter if you don't have a QB. I'd rather have a good QB than a top 25 all-time WR.
Because I think it's less likely that Willams or Maye are franchise QBs than it is that Harrison will be one of the best WRs in the NFL for years. We've seen lots of busts among the consensus top QB prospects--and may be able to get a good QB in the 2nd round--not likely, but possible.
I know we'll get there because we have a lot of time, but Maye has 13 picks in nearly 900 college throws. That's not a lot--is it just the type? Is it that he thinks his arm can make a throw and can't (even though he has a good arm?)
This is me. Positional value dictates you take the QB. Likelihood of the player being a megastar is higher with MHJ.
I do feel like this draft, if these guys are available to BB and he takes a guard or yes even a tackle (this is different if all three of those guys are gone and the Pats take a tackle with the #4 pick.. that would be ok) instead of Williams, Maye, or Harrison, that that would instantly be a fireable offense.
Maybe not. Maybe he would pull the old “I’m the boss here and nobody - not even Kraft - is going to tell me how to run this football team” maneuver.
Of course it is. It's November and there's a decent chance all three are drafted before the Patriot's first pick. But these are the conversations you have on a team fighting for the best draft pick.
Just out of curiosity I looked back at the last few drafts and it looks like selecting a QB is really just unpredictable. Goff/Wentz went 1 and 2 in 2016 and while Goff has been a mid-tier franchise QB, Wentz is out of football. Paxton Lynch (one of those vaunted Tier 2 guys who might be a franchise QB) went late in the first. Hackenburg (Rd 2) sucked, Brissett (Rd 3) is a completely solid backup QB and Dak (rd 4) was RoY and a good starter. In 2017, Trubisky was taken ahead of Mahomes (who sat for a year behind Smith!) and Watson. Kizer was another one of those "could be a franchise QB" fliers who is out of football. Dobbs went in the 4th round that year and might be serviceable. In 2018, Mayfield and Darnold were taken ahead of Allen (the better QB) and Lamar Jackson (the best QB in that draft) was drafted at the end of the first round and IIRC the Ravens wanted him to be a receiver. In 2019 Kyler Murray went first overall and has been good (if inconsistent) and everyone else from that draft was bad, including 6th overall pick Daniel Jones. In 2020 Burrow went first (good pick), followed by Tua with 5 overall (bad, until new coaching and a better team made him pretty good) Herbert at 6 (good), then Jordan Love (not good) at the end of the first and Hurts in Round 2 (good pick). 2021 had 5 QBs taken in the top 15 and of them it looks like Lawrence (first overall) is good and I would say the jury is still out on Fields (to be generous) but the other 3 were not good.
I think you meant to respond to me, but that's not the point I was making. The point I was making is that no matter who is available to the Pats, chances are they do something that we don't really like. Which was fine, and even sort of awesome, when they were winning Lombardis and going to the AFCCG every year. Making similar selections and then going 4-13 isn't as much fun.
I guess that was my long way of saying I agree with you on taking Harrison and then rolling the dice in a later round.
I'm confused about one thing. Should we judge Bill based on how the pick pans out long-term, or should we judge him based on whether the pick is who we would have picked? Like, if he picks Maye at 3, but he's a bust and washed out after two years, is he a bust or a good pick because well, we needed a QB?
I think you're likely to find WR success rate isn't that much better. I can't find success rate at the moment and WRs aren't generally picked as high but still plenty of misses early in the draft.
I think it's a little both, and I know that's a wishy-washy response. Take Mac Jones. I think nearly everyone here was ok with the pick. It didn't work out. I don't think anyone is holding that against BB.
When it does not work out I do think it's fair to question both the player and management. Mac has his own failings, but actions by BB have not enabled his full potential either. If they draft Maye and switch coordinators every year, don't invest in the offense, etc. then it's a similar story. Maybe he's able to succeed anyways, but he would not have been in the best position to do so, which is largely management's responsibility.
That's fair. And I think that you're probably right. If he takes Williams or Maye with the first pick, he probably won't get crushed even if doesn't work out long-term. Not by anyone reasonable. I'm taking Harrison if he's available and shooting for the Penix/Daniels/McCarthy tier with the next one, but I understand the "grab your QB now" mindset.
It's funny that 2021 is the standard for this, since four of those five guys can't play. As of today, one QB was value in the first round of that draft.
To be clear, I mean we (or I) don't hold the pick against BB the GM. I do hold some of Mac's failings against BB the coach (not having a succession plan for Josh, whatever it is they did in 2022, etc.). And I also hold some of Mac's failings against BB the GM in terms of the offensive roster he has built (e.g., picking Thornton, Strange, etc.).
Oh yeah, you can get a bust. Point was more, the idea that it will be these 2 QBs in the top 3, then you can pick up a potential franchise QB in the 2nd isn't reasonable, some of those guys will rise very fast.
I'll be very interested to see how the scouting assessments break down on these second tier QBs. Hell, Mac was in that category in his draft year and might have had a real chance of going #3.
I think Daniels might be the Richardson of this year not the combine breaker, but the athletic guy who skyrockets into the top 5
