The number one job this off-season is to bring in some proven talent evaluators. This is a critical time for this franchise and they need to capitalize on their draft position.
Who do YOU want Pats to end up with in draft?
- Thread starter DJnVa
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Great point. So if we pass at QB in round 1, the next tier we'll have a shot at, pending a trade up to the end of the first, will feature players like Michael Pratt, Riley Leonard, KJ Jefferson, etc. None of these profile as a franchise QB. However, they all have better arms than Mac, and they're MUCH better athletes. That's encouraging.
Harrison
Penix (either move up late in R1 or see if he falls to the top of R2)
Sign Cousins @ big money for two years. Sit Penix for two years behind him.
Sign one of Ridley, Evans, or Higgins
Re-sign Dugger, Onwenu, Henry if he’ll have us.
Kick the tires on Gilmore as your #2.
Immediately become contenders again.
Our defense is stout. We just need a league-average to slightly-above-average offense to compete. Cousins, say, Evans, Harrison, Pop, and Henry is a nice group of talent.
Penix (either move up late in R1 or see if he falls to the top of R2)
Sign Cousins @ big money for two years. Sit Penix for two years behind him.
Sign one of Ridley, Evans, or Higgins
Re-sign Dugger, Onwenu, Henry if he’ll have us.
Kick the tires on Gilmore as your #2.
Immediately become contenders again.
Our defense is stout. We just need a league-average to slightly-above-average offense to compete. Cousins, say, Evans, Harrison, Pop, and Henry is a nice group of talent.
Here's CBS Sports' current rankings of QBs that are or could be available in this upcoming draft:
1. Williams
2. Maye
3. Sanders
4. McCarthy
5. Penix
6. Nix
7. Ewers
8. Daniels
9. Pratt
10. Leonard
11. Ward
12. Rattler
13. Van Dyke
14. Travis
Here's a series of mock drafts and the QBs they have taken in the first round:
33rd Team: (2) Williams, (4) Maye (to NE!), (16) Nix, (21) Penix, (26) Daniels - leaving McCarthy, Sanders, Ewers, Pratt, Leonard among top 10 QBs
CBS Sports: (1) Williams, (2) Maye, (16) Daniels, (19) Penix - living Nix, McCarthy, Sanders, Ewers, Pratt, Leonard
PFN: (1) Maye, (2) Williams, (13) McCarthy - leaving Nix, Penix, Daniels, Sanders, Ewers, Pratt, Leonard
USA Today: (1) Williams, (2) Maye - just two (!) QB in the first round
NFL Spin Zone: (1) Maye, (3) Williams, (22) McCarthy, (25) Penix - leaving Nix, Daniels, Sanders, Ewers, Pratt, Leonard
Long story short... there's a reasonable chance that if NE took Harrison in the first round, they'd get their hands on a pretty good QB prospect in the second. But it WOULD be taking a chance for sure.
1. Williams
2. Maye
3. Sanders
4. McCarthy
5. Penix
6. Nix
7. Ewers
8. Daniels
9. Pratt
10. Leonard
11. Ward
12. Rattler
13. Van Dyke
14. Travis
Here's a series of mock drafts and the QBs they have taken in the first round:
33rd Team: (2) Williams, (4) Maye (to NE!), (16) Nix, (21) Penix, (26) Daniels - leaving McCarthy, Sanders, Ewers, Pratt, Leonard among top 10 QBs
CBS Sports: (1) Williams, (2) Maye, (16) Daniels, (19) Penix - living Nix, McCarthy, Sanders, Ewers, Pratt, Leonard
PFN: (1) Maye, (2) Williams, (13) McCarthy - leaving Nix, Penix, Daniels, Sanders, Ewers, Pratt, Leonard
USA Today: (1) Williams, (2) Maye - just two (!) QB in the first round
NFL Spin Zone: (1) Maye, (3) Williams, (22) McCarthy, (25) Penix - leaving Nix, Daniels, Sanders, Ewers, Pratt, Leonard
Long story short... there's a reasonable chance that if NE took Harrison in the first round, they'd get their hands on a pretty good QB prospect in the second. But it WOULD be taking a chance for sure.
This was basically what I was coming to post and I'm 100% good with this strategy, I have zero confidence they'll do this.
Even if you only sit a Penix type in year 1, if things are good you can likely move Cousins for an asset in year 2. I'm perfectly happy if they draft one of the top 2 QB's if they're in the Pats draft slot, if not go get Harrison, Cousins and Penix
So I think 2 things...
1. Some of those are underestimating the QB premium
2. I don't think there are many QB prospects you woud consider good on that list. Every year people really want there to be 7, 8, 9, 10 QB prospects who are for real, but it rarely works out that way. Every year guys get hyped up because they were good college players, but once NFL people really start looking at them they get crossed off.
"Reasonable chance" is doing a lot of work here. BUT ... if we can get one of McCarthy, Nix, Daniels,
Note: I've been high on McCarthy and don't see how he falls out of the top 10, let alone round 1. Willing to acknowledge, though, that he is a bit inaccurate. Still, he's just 20 years old.
Mocks are utterly useless this far out from the draft. Outside of the top 5-10 guys there will be a ton of movement, especially after the combine and interviews/visits/pro days start. AR was barely a 1st rd prospect at this time last year and most had Levis going above him even into draft night. And let's not forget the Malik Willis hype train that had him almost universally mocked in the 1st rd back in 2022 after the combine.
What is encouraging for NE is this looks to be the deepest skill position draft we have had in several years, especially at the positions they need to improve upon the most. WR is very deep at X, QB should have 2-5+ potential 1st rd picks and there are some interesting TEs including the generational talent Bowers. It is probably weakest at RB among the skill positions but that should be a lower priority for NE this off-season.
What is encouraging for NE is this looks to be the deepest skill position draft we have had in several years, especially at the positions they need to improve upon the most. WR is very deep at X, QB should have 2-5+ potential 1st rd picks and there are some interesting TEs including the generational talent Bowers. It is probably weakest at RB among the skill positions but that should be a lower priority for NE this off-season.
Where Penix gets selected will be interesting all by itself. He is amongst the nation's leading passers by most metrics and in the running for the Heisman. Yet he is projected into the late first at present. I have to believe someone will take him sooner than the late-teens/early-20s but there are legitimate questions about whether he can play in the NFL. He certainly has his flaws but the things I like about him is that in addition to insane arm, he doesn't force many throws into tight windows. Some of that is likely because he doesn't have to - whomever selects either Odunze or Polk are going to get really good, versatile WRs - but its remarkable to me how much restraint he has versus other cannon-armed QBs.
To me the big question is how he looks when NFL defense aren't just taking up space around his targets but forcing him into quicker reads.
To me the big question is how he looks when NFL defense aren't just taking up space around his targets but forcing him into quicker reads.
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Beyond that, a number of those guys are certainly going to return to campus for large NIL deals. No sense passing up a massive NIL deal to be drafted in round 5. Personally, I suspect at least Sanders and Ewers return and perhaps Leonard as well. To your point, a lot of the guys on the bottom half of the list have no chance of being a good NFL QB any time in the near future. I actually like Van Dyke a bit as a day 3 project guy, but if youre drafting him to be your starter, youre destined for some bad QB play.
I wonder what it would cost the Patriots to acquire one of the Bears' first round picks - without giving up their own first rounder. Let's say Chicago has #1 #2 and NE has #3. That would mean that NE would also have #35.
Chicago has 5 picks in this draft - two firsts, a third, two fourths, and a fifth. NE has the standard 7 rounds (their 7th is actually Chicago's). ....
So NE gets the #2 pick (to pair with their #3) and gives up...what? Their 2nd (#35), 3rd, and first rounders in 2025 and 2026? Something like that?
But this way NE could end up with both MHJ and one of the top QBs. Crazy? Yes, almost certainly. I'm also not sure which team would say no to that trade idea.
Chicago has 5 picks in this draft - two firsts, a third, two fourths, and a fifth. NE has the standard 7 rounds (their 7th is actually Chicago's). ....
So NE gets the #2 pick (to pair with their #3) and gives up...what? Their 2nd (#35), 3rd, and first rounders in 2025 and 2026? Something like that?
But this way NE could end up with both MHJ and one of the top QBs. Crazy? Yes, almost certainly. I'm also not sure which team would say no to that trade idea.
Yeah because then you’re forced asking yourself “is the value gap between Maye and Penix/McCarthy/Daniels/Nix/etc. wider than the value of just drafting one of those guys in the 2nd, keeping the high 3rd, and keeping the next two years’ worth of firsts?”
I wouldn’t do that. It appears to be a fairly deep QB class. Giving up on potentially 3-4 blue chip talents for what may be a marginal difference doesn’t seem worth it for a team with so many holes to fill.
I wouldn’t do that. It appears to be a fairly deep QB class. Giving up on potentially 3-4 blue chip talents for what may be a marginal difference doesn’t seem worth it for a team with so many holes to fill.
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Pretty sure BJ is speculating about what it would take to keep #3 and acquire #2, not move up one spot.
And fwiw, I would probably do that trade. Get MHJ and (almost) their choice at QB.
And fwiw, I would probably do that trade. Get MHJ and (almost) their choice at QB.
I don't think CHI would be interested in dropping from 2/3 to 35 no matter what they are getting back. The FO is renting not buying at this point and need to turn it around quickly. Much more likely they trade 3 for something in the 7-12 range and still get a first next year and 2nd or 3rd this year. Just like they did to acquire the CAR 1st they have this year.
It wouldn’t be to move up a spot. It would be to outright acquire the #2 pick so they could solve their two most pressing needs with absolute megastar prospects - QB and WR. They could figure out the rest.
It still might be unwise but it’s important to at least get right what I’m actually suggesting so people don’t think I’m toooooooo crazy!
Yep, I read it wrong. Not that I think it is a good idea, but with the cap space, they could plug holes on offense and then, in this instance, go QB, WR in the draft and then use 4-7 on best available.
Draft is deep at OT also. Per PFN, 10 tackles in the top 100, another 7 in the next 100.
Yep, I don't think it's that crazy at all with one caveat (I don't think you need to give up the 2026 first rounder). You aren't just looking at the gap between Maye/Williams vs. Pennix, etc. You're looking at the gap between the QB you want this year, and the QB's available next year, plus MHJ's value over a prospective receiver next year.
Let's assume the Pats want Maye, and Chicago/Carolina takes Caleb with the #1. Then Chicago/Caroline is sitting there at #2. They just invested in DJ Moore, they have a very good tight end in Kmet so they don't need Bowers, and they have no 2nd round pick. This gives them a pick in the 2nd to go with their Caleb Williams pick, it gives them additional 3rd rounder to go with the one they have. Although I'm not sure you need to throw in the 2026 pick too. I think the 2nd and 3rd this year, along with say our 1st and 2nd next year might get it done. Maybe throw in a 3rd in 2026.
The Pats end up with Maye and MHJ, and they still have their 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th, all of which are high in the rounds because of their suck this season. In addition, they're sitting on like what, 90million in cap space for the offseason. IMO, if Maye hits (or Williams, basically whichever one is left after Chicago picks), you've just literally turned your team around overnight. If Maye/Williams doesn't hit, nothing else really matters anyway. Frankly, the 2026 draft is better than the 2025 for QB's anyway, so if Maye/Williams suck, you go back into 2026 with your 1st rounder and try to pluck a good one from that class.
I'm sold.
Just because it's crazy doesn't mean that it's a bad idea. Drastic times and all.
Get the best QB as others have said. You can buy an elite WR on the market with a good QB on a rookie deal, but not the opposite. If the top two are taken (assuming we are 3 or 4) trade down the first round to where you can snatch one of the second tier guys and use the draft capital.
IDK. It cost Carolina 9, 61, 2023 1st, 2025 2nd and DJ Moore just to move up 8 spots to #1. It cost San Francisco 2 addtional firsts and and a 3rd to move up from 12 to 3 for Lance.
Feels like it would take a lot more than 1 additional first and a pupu platter of mid to late picks to outright acquire #2 or #3 in that scenario.
Feels like it would take a lot more than 1 additional first and a pupu platter of mid to late picks to outright acquire #2 or #3 in that scenario.
Based on where we are right now, I'd be proposing the following #35 and #67 this year, 1st rounder, 2nd rounder next year and 2nd rounder in 2026. So that's a 1st, 3 2nds and a 3rd. Certainly not the same amount as what Carolina gave up, but not terrible either. I'd probably throw more into the deal myself if I were the Pats and if I was sold on Maye or Williams being the guy (I think everyone is sold on MHJ), just because of how good this class is at the top of the draft vs. what next year's looks like, but of course, all of this is very early to speculate.
Don't like any of the trade-up scenarios. Draft Harrison, then the next best OT on the board, then another OT or QB prospect then fill in other needs down the draft order. Sign Cousins and roll.
HOU gave up the #12, #33 and 1st in 24 for #3. What you are proposing probably gets you into the 15-20 range. Double it if you want to get a very high first without giving up a first of your own.
In this scenario I'm more than happy to trade down from 3 to 12 to pick up 2 firsts and a third. Both of those trades look like massive losses for the team trading up.
Can I just say that any plan based around signing a 36 year old who blew out his achilles and won't be back until weeks (or months) after the draft is crazy. And that assumes he'd even sign here (I assume to get him you'd have to be the highest bidder by a good margin.... I bet he does a 1 year deal back in MIN now that they're not getting a good pick.)
Except for New England, they're sure to draft the guy out of the NFL with 14 catches and 177 yards.
I don’t have much hope for this happening but it would be a game changer if the Giants passed on a QB.
https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/evgiants-might-not-be-ready-to-move-on-from-daniel-jones
“According to multiple sources, including one inside the Giants, some key people in the organization still have faith in Jones and believe their 26-year-old franchise quarterback can still be their long-term answer.
https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/evgiants-might-not-be-ready-to-move-on-from-daniel-jones
“According to multiple sources, including one inside the Giants, some key people in the organization still have faith in Jones and believe their 26-year-old franchise quarterback can still be their long-term answer.
I'm guessing it's the same ones who's jobs would be at risk for signing him to a 4 yr/$160M contract and then moving on from him
They'll do this song and dance to entice teams to get into a bidding war to trade up for a QB up until the day of the draft.
By all reports Jones is a good teammate and citizen. And he's had his successes. I wouldn't be shocked if their assessment of the Top QBs didn't blow them away and they chose to trade out (or even stay put) and invest in other positions.
Well, there's that pesky detail. Plus the injuries. But I still I would not be shocked if they gave it another year.
What is the potential return for the 3rd pick from teams desirous of getting what they see as top 3 QB's. This is a team that needs to hit on multiple early picks. Is it possible to get 6 picks in the first 3 rounds? It it were possible, I think they have to consider that.
I was a big Anthony Richardson guy. I am a big Daniels guy. I was a big Lamar guy. All 3 are different. Daniels vs AR is another topic.
I can see that. I think NFL teams probably already have him there and the media is woefully behind as usual in know who the guys are this year. I think there is a misconception about risers and fallers. Most if not all NFL teams already know their testing metrics going into the combine. Most teams already have ideas of where guys are on tiers. Now sometimes people slip through the cracks. Guys like Kyle Dugger, played at a small school, or Darnell Wright, who played like shit until he put it all together his last year in college, are good examples of guys who genuinely might rise. Daniels is not like AR. AR was better about keeping his eyes downfield on scrambles for one. Size is another one. Daniels has much more of a Lamar kind of playstyle. Daniels, from what I have seen so far, is not as advanced as Lamar is in the pocket yet. Like Lamar though he keeps getting better.
I am not arguing against you here - just adding on and sticking in my two cents.
As for Maye and his rates I would also point to OL stats from college and how well they hold up vs the pros. UNC might play 1-2 games a year that are vs decent competition. UNC also has a simple offensive system. Many offensive line prospects have given up 0 sacks but absolutely suck as pros. It's really about the traits and the tape vs the box score. I am not picking on you at all when I say box-score scouting rots your brain. I know you weren't doing that.
Mac Jones had a lower interception % but I had concerns that when he extended plays he got reckless. Glad those concerns weren't warranted... oh wait. Maye has some throws on the run that are spectacular but he also has moments where his off-platform throwing on the run leads to terrible results.
I don't know if @Super Nomario cut the video before Dan Hatman talks about his concerns with Maye (I am the faceless voice before that, if it is in there, saying Daniels is my number 2 and I have concerns with Maye). But look, right now there is so much groupthinking going on it makes me sick. I hate draft groupthink.
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Forgive me if you have mentioned him here before but any thoughts about Penix Jr.?
I don’t think there’s any way Chicago makes that trade. I sure wouldn’t if I was them.
Per draft value charts, the #2 pick is worth 2600, #35 is 550, and #67 is 256. Future picks are generally assumed to be mid round, and they are discounted pretty severely (up to 50% or one round back), so a mid first next year would be valued at ~500 (1/2 of 1000), a mid 2nd at just over 200 (1/2 of 420), and a mid second the following year at just 100 (1/4 of 420).
Without future draft pick discounting the numbers are extremely close. But I know we discounted future picks, and I’d be shocked if NFL teams did not, as well. They would be stupid not too; present and future value and all that.
Huge kudos though on nailing the values almost exactly sans future discount. That’s really impressive. I assume you did that without looking at a chart?
Reminds me of Big Ben a bit. He isn't a dual-threat - he's not a statue back there. It is also unclear how his earlier play/performance/injuries have changed and if it is permanent. Questions on if he can do it though are skewed by how much time his excellent OL gives him. He isn't running around for his life like he was back in Indiana. My initial thoughts are he holds onto the ball too long, he isn't super accurate downfield, strong arm, tough as hell, generally makes the right decision but has made some bad ones vs zone, he will put his body on the line to make throws, hell of a competitor. If he can get better/faster with his processing and also take better risks//get better there he will be a starter. He's one of those guys I love but have some serious concerns about. Same with Nix although I am higher on Penix's tape.
Edit: to be clear Penix is on the low tier of mobility in QBs. He's not a dinosaur though. He has some Favre to him as well. People who enjoy gunslingers at QB will love this guy. I love the guy myself! I just don't know if he can translate his success to the NFL.
Thank you - greatly appreciated. Aside from his handedness, some of his qualities feel like a fit for a BB led team. I will say his decision making is pretty good from what I have seen but again I am now wondering if its mostly a function of his weapons and protection.
Despite his cannon arm, I haven't seen too many forced throws or Favre/Bledsoe eff-it shots into crowded windows. As we have all seen, that can change quickly if someone is under duress on the regular.
I defer to those more knowledgeable, but it looks to me like Penix's delivery is long and slow, and it's not just a lefty thing, it's more a function of his mechanics and larger frame. Maybe that corresponds to the Big Ben comp. He'd need to clean that up when things speed up in the NFL.
The amount of people in here looking to pass on a QB with their high pick to draft another position, and to sign Cousins instead is wild to me.
If there is a QB up top that even has a decent chance of being a top 10 QB, you take him.
You can't win without one. You can't know when you'll have another chance to draft one.
If there is a QB up top that even has a decent chance of being a top 10 QB, you take him.
You can't win without one. You can't know when you'll have another chance to draft one.
Quality “up top” really is dependent on the year though. And this year there will be a lot of talented quarterbacks available.
It’s hard to tell how much better Maye will be than, say, Penix. As someone said earlier: this appears to be a fairly deep draft.
Just two different approaches.
And I would say, if you think both Maye and Penix have a decent chance of being a top 10 QB, you take whichever one has the best chance at the top of the first round.
You can't fool around with QBs and think, ah we'll just try and get this guy later.
You take him, and figure everything else out later.
LOL, the only place I've seen these values is here on SoSH when people are talking about hypothetical trades. Never even seen an official chart.
I was just throwing out what I would offer, given a shit ton of geeking out on drafts for like 40 years, and my perception of pick value. Honestly, had no idea you guys discounted so much for future picks that much, but it certainly makes sense.