Winter Meetings 2018: Rumors and Speculation
- Thread starter Snodgrass'Muff
- Start date
This is cool to read. He bought a watch from one of my stores a year or two ago. I wanted to go down there and just talk baseball but figured that would be annoying. Now finding out he was a Sox fan make me regret it more
I would like to pontificate about this. The watch must have Roman numerals.
I'll be surprised if he gets 6/180. My guess is maybe 5/140. And it will be an overpay, but one we can live with.
There's not that much dumb money in MLB anymore. Boras can say what he wants. Nobody thinks that a 30 year old player is in the upswing of his career.
You keep insisting this but you are hilariously, spectacularly wrong. He's exactly what the team needs exactly when they need him.
- They need a middle of the order bat. He's one of the 10 best power hitters in the world.
- They need someone they can acquire without giving up prospects. He's a free agent.
- They need someone they can acquire who won't hurt their ability to draft and sign IFA's. He was traded mid season and has no QO hanging around his neck.
The other names on the market are up for debate, but now that Stanton is gone (apparently Boston wasn't really an option for him), there isn't anything available that comes close to Martinez as far as being a fit for the Red Sox.
Most would consider Franklin Barreto the headliner, no? (edit: Chawson beat me to it.)
You mean Lawrie.
For this to happen, there would need to be two teams ready to go to 6/$180 for him. I have to say, I don't see any evidence that that's the case, because I don't find SF's alleged interest credible (it would be a *terrible* move for them), and I don't think Arizona has that kind of money.
There is this:
...but that sounds to me like a rumor planted by Boras to get Dombrowski to budge.
You can get a pretty good idea from his career spray charts (and they're consistent with current patterns): http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=6184&position=OF&type=battedball&pid2=6184&ss1=2012&se1=2017&ss2=2012&se2=2017&cht1=hangtime&cht2=battedball&vs1=ALL&vs2=ALLMy biggest concern about JD Martinez from this article:
"Martinez isn’t a perfect fit because he’s a righthanded opposite-field power hitter. Martinez pulled only eight of his home runs last year. Fenway Park, particularly early and late in the year, does not serve his rightfield gap power stroke well at all."
That's unbelievable. Pulling just 8 out of 45 homers? I'd guess that Fenway would suppress his HR power so that it would be fantastic if he'd hit about 35-37 homers. Don't get me wrong - still a power upgrade, but the Sox would be paying for 45 homers, not 35-37.
EDIT: Then again, there's this spray chart from 2017 with Fenway overlay, and it makes me a little more optimistic:
And in fact, how can the SI article be right in saying that only 8 of his home runs were pulled? I see 18, not 8. And the RF and CF homers would have been out of Fenway except for two, maybe three. So ok I feel a little better.
He can clearly hit it out anywhere, but he also very noticeably doesn't pull fly balls.
I agree that JDM would fill a huge need for this team. But the DHing issue is the one thing I'm having trouble with. I have no problem with Hanley at 1B for maybe half the games, but he really needs to DH a bunch as well. JDM has never played first at the Major League level, so I doubt they're going to hand him a first baseman's mitt, or should they.
Which is why I keep coming back to this being a two part thing--sign JDM to play left/DH, AND trade JBJ for a First Baseman(Schwarber?), and move AB to center. I know Schwarber hasn't played there either, but many catchers have made a successful transition to first. I also like the fact that he's a lefty bat, and that he can also rotate to left at times, and undoubtedly play it as poorly as JDM does.
I may be wrong, but I don't think the plan going into the season will be to count on Hanley playing 140 games at first. They're not going to cut him and it's doubtful they'll trade him. Post-season Hanley was a glimpse of what he can still do, and frankly, what this team needs him to do.
Changing his approach to take advantage of Fenway LF could have devastating consequences.
Hopefully that wont happen
Edit incredible SSS but 7 HR in 39 YS3 AB and o HR in 27 Fenway AB (batting 444)
JDM in LF seems sensible and it might be what the actual plan is. But I’d be concerned about a bad, oft-injured, out-of-position outfielder for whom all value is tied up in his bat bashing his shoulder on that wall.
He’s been exclusively a right fielder since 2014. His time in LF from 2012-14 included exactly one game at Fenway.
But I agree that the issue of Hanley needing to DH is real.
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Is he? All of his numbers are inflated due to his BS homer barrage in the 2nd half. Before that he had hit 30 homers once and in the 20s twice. I’m not saying he can’t be but are you willing to pay a shit ton of money to a guy with his track record? Also keep in mind that he’s had 500 at bats in a season once in his career. I would take the investment on Stanton because he has a reputation of a feared power hitter. Despite the fact he also has injury issues like JD. JD has as many 20 homer seasons as 30+ ones.
Believe me I’m hoping for 35-40 homers a year out of him over the next 5-7 years but this isn’t the guy you go all in on. Too many questions. Good player but not great.
Stop it with the one year home run bullshit. You don't need to hit the most home runs to be one of the best power hitters in baseball. If he plays more, he'll accumulate more.
David Ortiz' OPS+ his last 4 years: 159,140,140,164
JD Martinez' OPS+ his last 4 years: 154,139,142,166
This isn't a guy who just figured out how to hit fly balls. He was really great the past 3 years, and then took it to another level last year.
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I agree. Martinez is a pretty darn complete player with the bat. There aren’t too many guys you can pencil in for that kind of production with confidence, and they don’t reach free agency that often. His older years may well be a burden, but this organization is equipped to deal with that more than most. And he’s exactly the type of hitter the line-up needs while this window is open the next few seasons.
There’s also a very good possibility Eaton can’t play CF after tearing up his knee. Trading Taylor would be dumb.
It makes zero sense. The Nats owners have a good relationship with Boras, and I am sure they are just "the mystery team". If they were going to spend money this offseason, they could use another bullpen arm more than an aging OF who cant play defense. Jayson Werth played that role, and they just got out from under his deal.
https://nypost.com/2017/12/14/it-may-take-ditching-clint-frazier-to-solve-yankees-rotation-needs/
Yanks talking to pirates about trade for Cole. If that passes that Yankee team is insane. The Sox are definitely going to be fighting for a wildcard at that point.
Yanks talking to pirates about trade for Cole. If that passes that Yankee team is insane. The Sox are definitely going to be fighting for a wildcard at that point.
Bottom line is the best power hitter available right now is JDM, and the Sox need him. They've got no power, relative to the bulk of their playoff competition anyhow.
Sign him, add another bat, and hope Price and Porcello don't suck.
That combined with Benintendi, Betts, Sale and the pen would make a very good team.
Sign him, add another bat, and hope Price and Porcello don't suck.
That combined with Benintendi, Betts, Sale and the pen would make a very good team.
Adding Cole is a lateral move from (or even backwards) if it's from the Sabatthia of '16 or Tanaka of '16. Cole has had some great moments but is basically another Sonny Gray for them. The scariest thing to me is the possibility of the Yanks dealing for Greinke (without sending prospects again...) improving their club tremendously there while giving the D'Backs the ability to get JDM and we end up with Eric Stinkin' Hosmer...... who turns into another Hanley after one year and stymies our ability to then get Machado or Harper next offseason.
If DD can't get JDM I think he should look to hold steady and possibly deal some of the talent that won't be on the '19 team to free up resources to throw at Harper/Machado while also possibly getting some younger talent back in trades
Refresh my memory please. Why are most down on Hosmer? I'll admit I'm not in love with the idea if he's the "big piece" this year but a LHH, GG first baseman with decent power sounds like someone the Sox should be looking at. The idea that the cost would somehow hamstring the Sox next year or in corresponding years is kind of silly.
Indeed: he’s lh with opposite field tendencies. In my opinion the only drawback is expense relative to home runs.
His fWAR by year: 1.0, -1.7. 3.2, 0.0, 3.5, -0.1, 4,1. That's an accumulation of 10 WAR over 7 seasons. The assumption is the team that signs him is going to be paying for the player who most recently posted that 4.1. Perhaps he's turned a corner, but a 1-2 win/yr 1B is not a guy who should be getting a 5 yr/$100M+ contract. He's only a little better than the cheaper 1B options on the market (Duda, Moreland, Morrison, etc.).
This plus the QO draft pick(s) penalty is what makes him an undesirable signing to me. Without the QO thing, Hosmer on a deal somewhere in the 3/45-4/65 range would be a great fit.
I’d read this. It covers most of the concerns: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-2018-free-agent-landmines/
Excerpted: “For the bulk of Hosmer’s career, he’s been a slightly above-average hitter while playing a position where hitting is the primary job description.”
They have Tanaka back and I believe the plan is to also resign CC once Cashman knows exactly how much money he has left to do so. Cole or any SP they traded for would I believe bump Montgomery, who would either be in the deal or be the 6th guy and start the year in AAA if needed, so something like Severino/Tanaka/trade target/Gray/Sabathia, with at least two of Montgomery/Adams/Sheffield in AAA waiting for their chance.
Could the Santana signing open a potential trade destination for Hanley? Of course they could just jump in on Hosmer themselves but perhaps Francona would take a shot on Hanley if the Sox are paying half.
Yes. Way up. Everyone was underestimating this market. Not a shot in hell JD gets under 25 million a year. Might push 30. Stay out of this market and go the trade route. Carlos Santana just got 20 million a year and is a much worse player than JD and has a QO attached.
At least Santana only got 3 years. That may keep Martinez at 6. I had him around 28 per.
