I'm guessing when he was traded for, everyone thought AGonz was on a HOF trajectory. No one thinks that of VMart or Hosmer.Speaking of AGon earlier, he does serve as pretty good current reminder of what a 7 year contract on a 30yo arguably *should* end looking like on an elite hitter who doesn't end up having a HoF career.
I get where you're coming from, but I'm not sure Upton is an otherwise better player as you say. Martinez has him beat in average oWAR the last 5 years (3.52 > 2.74), and is a better on-base guy, even if slightly.Justin Upton just got 5/$106M from the Angels. Upton is 4 days younger than Martinez. Martinez has a little more power than Upton, but otherwise Upton is a better player. That salary level is where Martinez should end up.
Yes, I agree, that is why going out and spending absurd amounts on any of these FAs is a waste of time. If some of our young players don't develop into stars, I don't see us competing with the better teams in the league anyway. I would rather they take a chance at some megastars, and give some of their younger players those early deals with guaranteed money before they actually become obvious candidates for huge FA megadeals. Giving Devers and Benintendi some financial security by locking up some of their FA years now or after next off-season is a better "7 year risk" than giving JD Martinez or Eric Hosmer huge deals. I don't think the David Price deal was necessarily terrible, it just turned south when he got hurt. But a player like David Price is in a different category than players like JD and Hosmer.I really hope the front office isn't looking to make that one move to make us "world series favorites", whatever that means.
(and BTW no one on the market would make us "World Series favorites". I'm not even sure trading JBJ for Trout would do that)
Xander is a crap fielding shortstop who absolutely sucks at making plays in the hole and isn't exceptional in any other respect such that the numbers consistently show him as -12 or so. At bat he's had OPS+ of 83, 107, 111 and 95 the last 4 years, good but not blowing anyone away and he periodically looks absolutely lost. Why would any team be anxious to give him a giant contract?Rafael Devers? I just dont think the next two years of JD Martinez will make this club a WS favorite, especially if Devers and Benintendi don't become stars. If they both have breakout seasons, try to sign Harper for LF, trade JBJ, and move forward with a core of Devers, Benintendi, and Harper.
I can't imagine what Boras is going to ask for a 27 year old Xander, if he wants 7/220 for a 30 year old JD Martinez. I think we should start thinking about Devers and Benintendi as the core and future of the team, with Betts a hopeful extension candidate. See how Benintendi and Devers do this year, and if they have seasons even resembling breakout seasons, lock them up for a few of their FA years. Better long term strategy than dropping 30 mil a year on JD Martinez
Steamer's projections for 2018:If not JDM, then where does the power come from? This team needs a power bat incredibly bad.
hosmer Is even more mediocre. Boras is still asking for the moonXander is a crap fielding shortstop who absolutely sucks at making plays in the hole and isn't exceptional in any other respect such that the numbers consistently show him as -12 or so. At bat he's had OPS+ of 83, 107, 111 and 95 the last 4 years, good but not blowing anyone away and he periodically looks absolutely lost. Why would any team be anxious to give him a giant contract?
You, I and Mr. Boras all see Harper as headed for the record breaking mother of all contracts with the MFY... https://nypost.com/2017/12/09/bryce-harpers-agent-has-good-news-for-yankees-fans/I don't see any scenario where the Sox wind up winning the bidding war for Harper.
Which position do you see him playing with Stanton and Judge in the corners?You, I and Mr. Boras all see Harper as headed for the record breaking mother of all contracts with the MFY... https://nypost.com/2017/12/09/bryce-harpers-agent-has-good-news-for-yankees-fans/
Theoretically they could rotate between LF/RF/DH. Not saying it will happen, but it is positionally possible.Which position do you see him playing with Stanton and Judge in the corners?
Theoretically a lot of things are possible when you have a DH spot to play with. Even taking into account Judges low $$ that would be a lot to invest in a DH (1/3 of those combined salaries) and none of them are old or defensive liabilities. Machado makes so much more sense for the Yankees needs right now unless something drastic happens (long term injury or trade) before Harper hits the market.Theoretically they could rotate between LF/RF/DH. Not saying it will happen, but it is positionally possible.
You've convinced yourself they aren't getting both?Theoretically a lot of things are possible when you have a DH spot to play with. Even taking into account Judges low $$ that would be a lot to invest in a DH (1/3 of those combined salaries) and none of them are old or defensive liabilities. Machado makes so much more sense for the Yankees needs right now unless something drastic happens (long term injury or trade) before Harper hits the market.
$120 ish million a year for the next decade for 3 players is a hell of a risk. I can't see them doing it. I wouldn't like it at all, but for me there is enough risk there to offset the fear of seeing a Machado-Harper-Stanton-Judge monster lineup.You've convinced yourself they aren't getting both?
In addition to the LF/RF/DH rotation, 1B has long been a position allowing corner outfielders to stay in the lineup. It is an easier problem to find them playing time than to afford $400M+ contracts - and the Post and Agent believe money will not be a problem.Which position do you see him playing with Stanton and Judge in the corners?
Thats will be about 15-20% of their revenue over the next decade for 3 stars, maybe less depending on revenue growth with BamTek throwing cash at owners. Heck Manny Ramirez salary alone was about 10% of Red Sox revenues in his early years$120 ish million a year for the next decade for 3 players is a hell of a risk. I can't see them doing it. I wouldn't like it at all, but for me there is enough risk there to offset the fear of seeing a Machado-Harper-Stanton-Judge monster lineup.
Isn’t most of the BAM revenue going to be Disney’s?Thats will be about 15-20% of their revenue over the next decade for 3 stars, maybe less depending on revenue growth with BamTek throwing cash at owners. Heck Manny Ramirez salary alone was about 10% of Red Sox revenues in his early years
He has never been quite as bad as -12 even by DRS, which hates his defense a good deal more than UZR. His numbers since 2014:Xander is a crap fielding shortstop who absolutely sucks at making plays in the hole and isn't exceptional in any other respect such that the numbers consistently show him as -12 or so.
My understanding is they bought a 33% stake and MLB still controls over 2 billion of its current value which is increasing, rapidlyIsn’t most of the BAM revenue going to be Disney’s?
MLB does get to enjoy the $2.5-billion majority interest sale price from Disney in the short term.
Its been over a decade of weakness since the MLBPA filed a grievance over collusion And settled in 2003 in the aftermath of the mammoth Manny,Arod and Jeter contracts in 2000-2001MLB Really rolled Tony Clark.
Harper can play some CF too.
I think they should sign Duda. The Citi Field and NL
east effect makes him an undervalued asset.
But our outfielders have a ton of rangeHow can anyone say that if they got Machado it's an improvement defensively over X? He's never really played the position, so we just take Cafardo's word for it he'd be good? Machado teamed with Devers could create a sieve on the left side..and then you have a second baseman and possibly a first baseman who are not that good either.
Yeah - an interesting option. He's played a lot more OF lately, but he'd be a fine placeholder for Pedroia earlier in the season. He could transition into a role player later in the season. It's a pity he can't play SS, but then I don't think Nunez can really play anywhere all that well.Surprised that there has been almost no noise about Howie Kendrick. He's basically an older (and presumably cheaper) Nunez.
Really? He was a SS in the minor leagues and only moved to 3B in the majors because they wanted his bat in the lineup and that was the hole they had available. He also filled in for JJ Hardy in 2016 when he was hurt for an extended period. And his scouting reports in the minors had him as a really good defensive SS.How can anyone say that if they got Machado it's an improvement defensively over X? He's never really played the position, so we just take Cafardo's word for it he'd be good? Machado teamed with Devers could create a sieve on the left side..and then you have a second baseman and possibly a first baseman who are not that good either.
Kendrick was actually a pretty terrible defensive 2B last time that was his primary job, FWIW--and that was in 2015. He might be OK for a 2-3 month stint, but we should keep our defensive expectations low. But I agree he'd make an intriguing option to fill in for Pedroia and then settle into a role as a bat-first corner OF/2B/1B supersub (he's even played some 3B). Having him on the roster would add some flexibility, especially if the Sox are contemplating signing one of the power-hitting LHH first basemen with a pronounced platoon split (like Duda or Adams).Yeah - an interesting option. He's played a lot more OF lately, but he'd be a fine placeholder for Pedroia earlier in the season. He could transition into a role player later in the season. It's a pity he can't play SS, but then I don't think Nunez can really play anywhere all that well.
Circling back to the bullpen discussion...No thanks on Albers. Team doesn’t need any more RPs. Smith Thornburg you have to figure one of those two will compete with Kelly for 8th inning duty. The exception is Rosenthal. I’d like to see the Sox get creative and offer him a 2 year deal with an eye towards 2019.
This is interesting. Would you take Realmuto over Vasquez (who'd obviously be part of the return to Miami)?
In a heartbeat. He's worth a ton though. Maybe as much as Yelich.This is interesting. Would you take Realmuto over Vasquez (who'd obviously be part of the return to Miami)?
I'd kick the tires. The Marlins don't seem to know how to get good value in returnIn a heartbeat. He's worth a ton though. Maybe as much as Yelich.
Totally with you on the volatility. But I distinctly remember the feeling of watching the ALDS and seeing Farrell trust no one in our bullpen besides Sale, Price and Kimbrel.But you can’t know which of these will be still throwing well by midsummer next year. That’s the gospel truth of reliever volatility.
And if the truth of volatility is to be believed, offseason moves form an unholy triad where guaranteed contracts, limited roster spots, and lack of minor league options unite to change the soothing presence of a seemingly “playoff pen” in January into a raging hell of “who can we trade for” in July.
Just relax. The pen was good last year. If the pen becomes a problem that lasts into next June, DDski will try to cover it in-season.
Now is the time to focus on the hard stuff — everyday 3/4 batting power vs. overall long-term salary concerns.
He's what Swihart was supposed to be. If they upgrade from Vazquez to Realmuto and sign JD Martinez, the lineup will be just fine in 2018.In a heartbeat. He's worth a ton though. Maybe as much as Yelich.
At Miami - he's Jose Molina. (.237/280/.365)He's what Swihart was supposed to be. If they upgrade from Vazquez to Realmuto and sign JD Martinez, the lineup will be just fine in 2018.
Swihart's a great comp. Realmuto is like a top 3 defender over the past three years too. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=750&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=20,dHe's what Swihart was supposed to be. If they upgrade from Vazquez to Realmuto and sign JD Martinez, the lineup will be just fine in 2018.
Edit: Wonder what a realistic package would look like. The Ozuna trade might be a decent barometer. How much Vazquez would be worth in return is obviously the big question.
Maybe Vazquez, Chavis, Alex Scherff and one of the mid-rotation ceiling high minors types like Mike Shawaryn?
You're getting 3 arb years out of Realmuto so he's got plenty of excess value. He'll be 27 next season.
Right after announcing it's streaming plans for 2018, Disney accelerated it's option, with MLB approval, to purchase a controlling interest . Not sure if the transaction has been approved on the regulatory front, but if so, it's Mickey Mouse 75%, MLB 15% with the NHL and other partners will split the remaining 10%.My understanding is they bought a 33% stake and MLB still controls over 2 billion of its current value which is increasing, rapidly
This seems like an awful lot. Vazquez is also a first-year-arb 27-year-old, so the difference in value is precisely the difference in production between the two. Is Realmuto really Chavis + Scherff + Shawaryn better than Vazquez? In 1621 career PA he's almost exactly a league-average hitter. Obviously, Vazquez is a good deal less than that. OTOH, according to StatCorner Realmuto is an atrocious framer, consistently in the bottom five in MLB with RAA numbers around -20, while Vazquez has ranged from +3.6 to +12.2. Granted, these framing metrics are not as well established as wRC+. But if those numbers are anywhere near valid it would take a lot of offense to make up for that gap.He's what Swihart was supposed to be. If they upgrade from Vazquez to Realmuto and sign JD Martinez, the lineup will be just fine in 2018.
Edit: Wonder what a realistic package would look like. The Ozuna trade might be a decent barometer. How much Vazquez would be worth in return is obviously the big question.
Maybe Vazquez, Chavis, Alex Scherff and one of the mid-rotation ceiling high minors types like Mike Shawaryn?
You're getting 3 arb years out of Realmuto so he's got plenty of excess value. He'll be 27 next season.