Well everyone says that he lost 5mph off his velocity in the last few weeks. I don't see any point in trying to pick the exact moment he lost his effectiveness, but go ahead.So he hit the wall between 9/19 and 9/25?
Well everyone says that he lost 5mph off his velocity in the last few weeks. I don't see any point in trying to pick the exact moment he lost his effectiveness, but go ahead.So he hit the wall between 9/19 and 9/25?
Yes! Despite the concerns about the starters they have a lot of guys who make the team go, and obviously they've had a very strong September with or without their best rotation. I'm not giving up. Only Pomeranz seems unlikely to get back to where he was. Sale, ERod, even Porcello could squeeze out another strong start or three. Bullpen is amazing. Hitting seems to happen when they need it, most nights.This. Make a series out of it and I'm satisfied. Or, if the unthinkable happens and they end up in the wild card game, advance to the ALDS and make a series out of it.
If only Papelbon hadn't gone Full Schiraldi in '09...It's funny, in each of 2005, 2009, and 2016, I truly believed that if the Sox took game 3 they could have won the series. Alas, 0-3.
You said he was only good for 150 innings, not me.Well everyone says that he lost 5mph off his velocity in the last few weeks. I don't see any point in trying to pick the exact moment he lost his effectiveness, but go ahead.
I'm pretty sure the point I was making wasn't about how his 149th inning was great and then immediately he was terrible. My point was that he has shown to have limitations in both of the seasons (this and last year) where he got put into a season-long starting role. Those limitations are a bummer at the season's end when he has nothing left but shouldn't obscure how much he contributed along the way. But somehow all you saw was the number 150.You said he was only good for 150 innings, not me.
It might be nice, it might be nice.Win the World Series. I am not throwing away our shot.
Nope, I saw a guy with one mediocre start in his last dozen or so before the other night, which is why I asked you if you think he lost it between that start and the one prior. I didn’t mention anything about innings, especially not in the absurd way you tried to paint it in this first sentence.I'm pretty sure the point I was making wasn't about how his 149th inning was great and then immediately he was terrible. My point was that he has shown to have limitations in both of the seasons (this and last year) where he got put into a season-long starting role. Those limitations are a bummer at the season's end when he has nothing left but shouldn't obscure how much he contributed along the way. But somehow all you saw was the number 150.
Oh, well your comment wasn't very precise. You think he was fine until his last start. I had thought that too a couple days ago, given his shutout last week, but immediately after that start the commentary (SOSH, Globe, etc) was all about how his fastball velocity has been steadily dropping off for the last month and he'd barely been scraping by. So that's why I said he'd lost it around 150 innings. That seems to be the consensus. And although I can't explain exactly what's happening, there's a strong inference of fatigue, given that he's at the same number of innings as last year where he hit the wall.Nope, I saw a guy with one mediocre start in his last dozen or so before the other night, which is why I asked you if you think he lost it between that start and the one prior. I didn’t mention anything about innings, especially not in the absurd way you tried to paint it in this first sentence.
1999, 2003, and 2004 taught a lot of us not to throw in the towel when down 0-2 (or worse)...even 2007 they came back from 3-1. So we were all just thinking "get on the board with a win and we can take this series"...but alas is right, they never did get that tough first "W".It's funny, in each of 2005, 2009, and 2016, I truly believed that if the Sox took game 3 they could have won the series. Alas, 0-3.
I forget what the studies say is doable...it's like 20% increase in innings YOY? Velocity has dropped in his last 4 starts, but the results don't seem to say it's a huge indicator of anything (yet) and he's not a guy who relies on blowing batters away with the FB. If he can locate as he has all year I think he'll be fine. Not sure what to make of the odd comments after the last game about holding back velocity.Oh, well your comment wasn't very precise. You think he was fine until his last start. I had thought that too a couple days ago, given his shutout last week, but immediately after that start the commentary (SOSH, Globe, etc) was all about how his fastball velocity has been steadily dropping off for the last month and he'd barely been scraping by. So that's why I said he'd lost it around 150 innings. That seems to be the consensus. And although I can't explain exactly what's happening, there's a strong inference of fatigue, given that he's at the same number of innings as last year where he hit the wall.
Sale hasn't seen any dropoff in velocity. Supposedly his slider is flattening out, but obviously only every other start. Seems like he can find it again. Maybe a few extra days off helps. We'll see.I forget what the studies say is doable...it's like 20% increase in innings YOY? Velocity has dropped in his last 4 starts, but the results don't seem to say it's a huge indicator of anything (yet) and he's not a guy who relies on blowing batters away with the FB. If he can locate as he has all year I think he'll be fine. Not sure what to make of the odd comments after the last game about holding back velocity.
I'm more worried about Sale's struggles of late. If he stinks it probably won't matter what anyone else does.
How does one need a ton of luck to win a 162 game season?None of the above? I'm dissatisfied that they underperformed in so many areas, and needed a ton of luck to get the division. At the same time, CLE/HOU are so clearly head and shoulders ahead of everyone in the AL that you just got tip your hat to them and move on to next year.
Fixed for you.Play at least one month longer than the MFY do.
Right, and they didn't which doesn't reflect how awesome those games were and how exciting it was to watch them come back. What more can you ask of your team than to make it to a game 7?Don't forget the 2008 ALCS - when they won game 5, down 3-1, with that epic comeback, I thought they were gonna pull it off
Listed like that, it looks pretty good. Not quite NEP level dominant, but definitely nothing to sneeze at.16 seasons of Henry ownership.
11 90+ win seasons
9 playoff appearances
4 AL East titles
3 World Series
Anyone with a passing understanding of analytics understands that the MFY are the best team in the division on paper. So how did the Red Sox win the division? By winning close games. Some of that is Kimbrel’s excellent season. Some is probably defense and baserunning— there’s growing evidence that analytics aren’t fully measuring the value of those. And some might even be shrewd in-game tactics by Farrell (wonder of wonders!). But when you finish ahead of a team whose run differential is 80+ runs better than yours, there’s unquestionably a bit of luck in the mix also.How does one need a ton of luck to win a 162 game season?
They're in first place because they're the best team in the AL-East. They've underperformed some expectations, but I don't feel like there's pretty much any scenario where you can chalk this up to luck. Even if a team needs some luck down the stretch to finish the deal, they've remained in position to be in the lead for 6 months. They're no more the beneficiaries of luck than any other team.
11-8 is a 94 win pace over 162. That's doable, strength of schedule be damned.I'd be happy if they only win 11 more games in 2017.
The Red Sox would have WS home field advantage against the Cubs or Rockies since their regular-season record is superior to those two teams. The Dodgers, National and Diamondbacks would have home field against Boston (the D'backs by virtue of having a better intradivision record).Beat the Cubs in Fenway (cause we should get home field against them)
I don't mean to be picky but, the Indians only went 158 and 4.Despite having "zero power" and a "terrible manager" that all of the players hate and quit on in June, they are tied for the 5th best record, and won the toughest division in baseball -- obviously in spite of being a thoroughly mediocre team.
This team is built for a short series. Rope a dope Houston here all you want and get hot next week. Any of the 4 teams that make it to the DS are wholly capable of going to the WS. They are 4-3 against unbeatable Cleveland (who won 162 games this year, right?) and 2-2 so far against Houston. They can, and have, beaten these teams.
And the NYY are not winning the division, my god get a grip.
Well I'm not sticking a pin or two in Kluber's shoulder until after he beats the Yankees. Just to be safe.I voted win the division series. Getting to the playoffs and not winning a series is a failure to me. Only difference is instead of being pissed off for months when they get bounced, I'm over it fairly quickly now.
Honestly, I think Sale comes up huge in the ALDS, and the Sox win the series. No one has a shot against Cleveland.
Late to this... But I am happy if they win their last game of the season at this point.I'd be happy if they only win 11 more games in 2017.
No to the Bumgarner posit. Sale is not a stud Clydesdale horse type that can pitch whenever we'd like him to. I wish...So for all of you that think the Sox have no chance to advance against the Astros and Indians, I ask you - Can you not envision a Bumgarner-esque postseason for Chris Sale? Is it impossible that Pomeranz maintain his form and give the team another one of his patented 5 2/3 1R efforts that allows Price-to-Reed-to-Kimbrel to shut the door for a 3-1 Game 2 win? Is Mookie incapable of having a great run in the playoffs? Are Benny and Devers doomed to be overmatched rookies?
I think it's just as easy to see this team rise up and create their own destiny as it is to see them go meekly into the Winter. Should they be favored? Probably not. But they deserve the 44% chance to beat the Astros that most analytical sites are giving them and whilst it's not quite a coin flip it's enough to sit up and take notice and cheer them on.