This honestly reads like something from Fire Joe Morgan.
Brandon Belt has played his entire career as a left-handed hitter in the most extreme home run-suppressant ballpark in baseball. He just turned 30.
Belt's got a higher career OPS at home (.827) than he does on the road (.812). His slugging percentage is almost identical at home (.458) and on the road (.464). He's hardly been hurt by his home park.
He's younger than anyone conceivably available with the exception of Hosmer, who is essentially a more handsome Sean Casey.
His age is relevant because he is signed for 4 more years. There are other options who wouldn't need to be signed for that long and would take far less money, and who wouldn't require us to trade our starting CF to acquire.
Instead of home runs, I'd rather look at statistics like these. From 2016-17, Belt is:
- T-15th in MLB in OBP (.378)
- 6th in BB rate (15.4%)
- 16th among MLB LHH in balls hit to the opposite field (and hits a higher percentage of fly balls than all those above him)
- 26th among MLB hitters in wOBA (.365)
- 4th in MLB in average fly ball distance (2017 only)
- 6th in MLB in launch angle (2017 only)
- Without discernible splits, doesn't need to be platooned
- Arguably the best defensive 1B in baseball, at a time when we're breaking in a shoddy defensive 3B with a big bat
He's been a really solid player. But the point is, he is owed $69 million for the next 4 years. He is not a free agent and we would have to trade talent to get him (presumably Bradley, since this is the "Giants Interested in JBJ" thread.)
If we could get him for free, that would be something to consider, but that isn't going to happen. Even if he came for free, his concussion issues would still make it a big risk, and the $17 million he is getting for the next 4 years make it really unlikely that we would be able to sign Martinez or any other bat.
There's evidence he changed his launch angle last year to hit more home runs, but it was overshadowed because the Giants sucked, their park is cruel to him, and he got hurt. But this is what a guy looks like pre-breakout.
If the park was "cruel" to him, he would have much better numbers on the road, but he doesn't. As noted above, he's actually been better at the "cruel" park than on the road.
As for changing his launch angle, his slugging percentage was actually lower last year than the previous 2 years, so any change didn't improve his slugging.
Belt isn't going to break out. He's going into his 30's and coming back from a bad concussion. If he can completely recover, then at some point over the next 4 years he might have a good year beyond his norm, but he is not going to magically go to some new improved level and stay there. He is likely to overall stay who he always has been, and then start to decline.
For perspective, he's been as valuable with the bat from 2016-17 as George Springer. If he's properly healed from a concussion, his age 30-33 seasons at a 4/$69 are an incredibly safe investment.
The bolded parts here do not add up: "
If he's properly healed from a concussion, his age 30-33 seasons at a 4/$69 are
an incredibly safe investment."
He didn't play after August 4th last year. No one knows if he has properly healed or not.
As of September, he was "still dealing with lingering problems with his vestibular system and vision... This was Belt’s fourth documented concussion in the last eight years and third in the last four seasons".
That concussion record, with that 4-year contract for $69 million, makes him someone we should probably stay away from completely.
I agree that the cost makes Bradley worth more,
Then we agree, so let's stop talking about Belt on the "Giants Interested in JBJ" thread. Or at least talk about who else the Giants should be adding to the deal. I don't see anyone they would add who would make it a good deal for us.
but I'd far prefer trading for him giving up a draft pick to sign the age 32-35 seasons of Carlos Santana — who is inferior, less consistent, and a worse fit for our ballpark (he'd hit .230 with that 51% pull rate) — at roughly the same price.
These are NOT the only options.
In my opinion, we should try to sign JD Martinez as Plan A. If that fails, then we should try to find a short term bat or two for cheap, rather than trade any of our few chips to acquire a guy with an expensive multi-year contract, especially one who has serious concussion issues.