Getting Smart with Statistics
- Thread starter JakeRae
- Start date
Isaiah wanted a brinks truck too. It's nice to want things. I have a hard time finding a team under the cap willing to go over the MLE for Marcus Smart. He's going to have the $8m MLE from multiple teams but we've seen players not return to their old organization due to feeling as if they are being screwed over even if they want them at that price of 4/$32m (or whatever the MLE will be)......which I'm not convinced that Ainge truly does.
Smart won’t sign any of those offers, so it would be for Ainge to decide whether there’s common ground above the MLE or if he just wants Smart at his 6 million next season. If Smart signed something like 4/32, Danny would instamatch.
Actually, it’s possible, if there’s a supertrade for a stud, that Smart might get a one year raise for a salary match if he doesn’t get a signable offer elsewhere.
One final thing - Smart might not want to use his hand as an excuse. Reminding people of his idiocy won’t increase his value.
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The current injury has nothing to do with the punching the mirror, I thought?
But yea, having his hand in the news doesn't do him any favors.
It doesn't.
Hurt the thumb diving on the floor for a loose ball, as Smart does.
The MLE for this year was 4 years, $36.14M (including the maximum 5% annual increase).
For a free agent re-signing using the Bird exception, a contract starting at the MLE could be up to 4 years, $37.65M, including the maximum 8% annual increase (let's assume the cap stays flat for simplicity).
If Danny was willing to start at $11M (about $2.5M above this year's $8.406M MLE), then Marcus could get 4 years, $49.28M. And if his agent is willing, they could also structure the deal so that Marcus gets ~$19M in year 1 (including signing bonus) and then the contract declines by 8% each year, helping out the Celtics luxury tax bill in later years (Nick Collison-style).
Unless another team is willing to blow away 4/50 for Marcus, I have to think that DA gets it done with a balanced deal for both sides. I also think it's unlikely that Marcus takes the QO, since it is just $6.05M and he won't even have a huge amount of guaranteed playing time if Kyrie+Terry both come back. No matter how confident he is, Marcus (and his agent) should take the extra $2.5-13M in year 1 and $30-45M guaranteed this summer. If he way overperforms the deal, then he is still a FA in 2022 at the age of 28.
So..... Marcus thinks 12-14 million would be selling himself short....
https://nba.nbcsports.com/2018/05/29/celtics-marcus-smart-im-worth-more-than-12-14-million/
https://nba.nbcsports.com/2018/05/29/celtics-marcus-smart-im-worth-more-than-12-14-million/
Has there ever been a player to say "you know, I have my flaws, I think I am only worth a minimum contract next year"? Of course he, or just about anyone, is going to inflate their worth. Complete non-issue in my mind
I'm not hating, because I've done it, but we had the $12-$14 million stuff like 8 posts above you.
http://www.sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/getting-smart-with-statistics.22066/page-5#post-2842732
Smart is probably correct about his FA market value because teams will spend if they have that ability but there are only a small handful of teams able to pay it this summer. Stating these numbers publicly all but tells the fanbase that he isn't going to be returning here. His RFA status is pretty much irrelevant imo with teams knowing Ainge isn't going to match a big FA offer. If I had to guess I'd put the Nets at the top of the list.
Letting Marcus shoot 10 threes a game seems like a decent way to make that happen
I know the Marcus hatred is real, but he really does help teams win. He's a great defensive captain, and if this were the summer of 2020, I'm sure Brooklyn would be all in. But this summer they'll be looking to continue doing what they've done since the firing of Billy King. They'll use the cap space they have to accumulate more draft picks in hopes of striking gold (a la Chicago with Jimmy Butler).
To be brutally frank, I wouldn't be shocked to see LBJ do the Chris Paul thing (pick up his option as part of a trade to his desired location) and Brooklyn act as the facilitator by eating the bad deal.
To be brutally frank, I wouldn't be shocked to see LBJ do the Chris Paul thing (pick up his option as part of a trade to his desired location) and Brooklyn act as the facilitator by eating the bad deal.
Yeah, that's who I was thinking of, he fits into the Nets' open space (presuming they renounce Stauskas and Okafor) and they could pick up a first round pick or three for facilitating. A trade something along the lines of a re-signed Clint Capela to Cleveland, Anderson and future firsts to Brooklyn, and James to Houston.
Since Sean Marks took over he has attempted to use his cap space in signing the following RFA to offer sheets.
* $37m to Donatas Motiejunas
* $50m to Tyler Johnson
* $75m to Allen Crabbe
* $106m to Otto Porter.
I think the relevant number is zero major free agent signings and four major cap clearing trades for other teams. And they've been openly discussing their plans for a high draft pick next year. So I expect more use of the limited cap space for the purposes that they have been using it.
The Nets can only control their actions.....which is to aggressively attempt to spend on FA. What is relevant is that they have made these offers to RFA and Marcus Smart is one of the better RFA available this summer.
And is the opposite of every other RFA that they've made contract offers to. Literally the only guy remotely similar was the one guy that they made an offer to as an agent favor (Otto Porter). Every other guy on the list was a one dimensional shooter. All of their free agent offers are to shooters. So, yeah, they're not making an 80% max offer to a sixth man in hopes of landing the tenth or 11th pick next year.
Given the predicament created by the predecessor regime, Marks has used the only tools at his disposal to acquire assets/talent. Unlike most bad teams they don't have access to high draft picks. Like most bad teams they are not an attractive destination for difference making free agents. So what's left? 1. Taking on bad contracts into cap space in exchange for picks or young talent. 2. Leveraging cap space and the limited market for RFAs, by signing them to pricey offer sheets. It seems weird to assume that Marks is going to rely on these flawed tools, when easiest path to acquiring transcendent talent is now finally open to him: be bad and get a high draft pick. In light of the new lottery rules, the Nets don't have to tank as aggressively as some teams in recent memory. But one would assume Lin and Carroll, as expiring contracts who can still play, will get shipped out.
Marcus Smart is a nice player, but he is not going to change the win totals of many teams by much, if at all.
Unless Marks dumps the players he has already acquired that tanking ship has long since sailed. They are competing to win games now.....again, unless they dump all the guys who have made them competitive they are going to be closer to competing for the 8-seed than for the #1 pick.
While I agree with this he'd be a nice piece to the Nets in establishing a defensive culture with RHJ and Jarrett Allen.
I'd be surprised if the Nets were in on Smart. They already have D'Angelo, Dinwiddie, Levert, Crabbe and Lin at the guard spots to try and find minutes for, think a sixth guy in that mix is too many and probably not worth it for them to move one of those guys to fit Smart in. I could see hem firing an offer sheet at Capela on day and forcing Houstons' hand and closing out some of Moreys' options.
There is a market for many of those guys though. Now that the Nets have some actual assets who can play in this league I think this is Marks' first offseason where he has a chance to reshape the team to his desire.
Dinwiddie and Levert do, but those are probably the guys he'd like to keep.
I don't think they'd get much, if anything, for D'Angelo, Lin or Crabbe.
I could be wrong, but I'd guess if they're in on free agency they'd go for a front court player.
There will never be consensus on Marcus.
Danny will never offer him a deal that isn't tradeable down the road. But I'd be shocked if he doesn't make him an offer that is sensible, despite the outcry here over his excessive and poor shooting. It really is going to come down to whether some team makes him a goofy offer, which is a definite possibility.
To point 1, that's how I see it as well. Like Brad told Danny, I'm not going to lose on purpose. Atkinson (and Marks) have that exact same philosophy.
To point 2, I have been pushing that he Nets will make a play for Smart for a few reasons. Defensive intensity, because they make aggressive offers to RFA's who they have interest in and psychologically because, they'd be sticking it to Boston, the team who is making a living on chewing up and spitting out their previous GM. Would be nice for them and their fans to stick it to Boston. I can see the case for why Smart isn't a perfect fit for the Nets but if they're able to add him for nothing but $$, then they've added quite a bit of value to their organization.
The Smart, Rozier, Tatum, and Horford numbers disnt surprise me. Jaylen’s did.
https://analytics.twitter.com/mob_idsync_click?slug=t0BMvcWHdq&idb=AAAAEICxw4Cds0V9AJgqKDuh4BFWNV7HHhO8tmTJEGyJ7b3HtnnGAsUhTHhU4kdWOdU43sJB1EjlkMPjCfUCIFEe2Dg7mHg4L94OMc4CKK_VOlzOC5kdeorAHlDrATnPndcwTkFflY5uhEg4pEVXz_YWqIRp2Nqy&ad_tracking=false&tailored_ads=false
Someone needs to tell the Nets that they're competing to win games now, they seem to think that they're finally playing for a high lottery pick.
Of course Atkinson isn't going to lose on purpose, he just doesn't have a lot of complete players and basketball's still a two way sport. So regardless he's going to lose a lot of games with his roster full of roleplayers. Especially as there will be fewer teams processing the shit out of the 2019 season in hopes of getting a high lottery pick
They, literally, already have their Marcus Smart. Right down to his inability to shoot (Rondae Hollis-Jefferson). And, Jefferson, unlike Smart, plays a position of need for them (F). I mean, sure they could trade LaVert and Dinwiddie to open up playing time for Marcus, but why would they trade their best, youngest, and least expensive guards so that they can pay a sixth man $20 million per yer? Did I miss the re-hiring of Billy King?
Marks has been very clear that they're not going back to the bad old days. Boston also benefitted from the utter lack of concern Marks showed in dealing with the draft pick situation. Prior administrations would have thrown ginormous contracts at the likes of Marcus Smart just to reduce the PR impact of the draft picks lost, but Brooklyn openly benched guys like Brook Lopez a couple of years back because he wasn't their future and they wanted to start moving on, even though those moves cost them wins in the short term (and thank God that Marks and Atkinson went that route)
They aren't going to be trying to "stick it to" anyone. They aren't all in on finishing with the tenth best record in the Eastern Conference. They finally have their picks back, and now it's time to find all star level talent to add to their collection of roleplayers. And that all star level talent isn't going to be found by signing a roleplayer that duplicates an existing roleplayer's game at 80% max money.
I surmised a while back that he might sign the QO to position himself for next year and was laughed off. I still think that when his best multi-year offer is something like 4/$40, he takes the QO and rolls the dice on the possibility of hitting the market with a ring.
Other option is to sign a shorter deal, but that takes away the effective no trade clause he gets by signing the QO. If I had to rank possibilities, I'd say 50% QO, 10% 14M+ offer, 30% 2 year deal or 1+1/2+1, and 10% a 4/40 type deal.
Dallas, New Jersey, Phoenix and the Pacers have used their cap space elsewhere. If he wants more than the MLE, that leaves Chicago and Atlanta. Atlanta just drafted a point guard and is tanking. So Chicago?
Smart and Dunn would be a nightmare to play against.....but does the offense work? Even with markkanen shooting it well for a big?
Indiana still can get to around 12M if they wanted to fire it all at Smart. They're probably the best fit left for him.
If Smart wants to hit UFA at the best time, a 2 year deal (or 1+player option) makes most sense. After 2020 us when all the stupid Evan Turner type contracts start coming off the books.
Didn't Smart scoff at the idea that he would sign for $12-14m and that he was worth more?
The problem with playing on a contract year is that his minutes will be reduced here with Hayward and Kyrie back along with Jaylen and Rozier.
Marcus has some big decisions to make and I'm guessing he isn't happy with how it ends for him this summer or in training camp if he's back here.
Brian Robb of BSJ (sub req'd) is pretty bullish on the C's retaining Smart, ticking down the cap situation and needs for most of the teams. He cites the Spurs as the team most likely to be lurking for his services:
Hope he's right.
https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2018/07/02/teams-remain-threats-sign-away-marcus-smart-celtics/
Hope he's right.
There's not a ton of dollars out there right now and a big offer may never materialize for Smart. Maybe 4 years at $36 mil would lock him down while giving him long term financial security.