Analysis of Celtics Games (2020-2021)

Its too early in their careers, let alone three games into the season (every team with one or more losses is looking to blow up their core for Harden and fire their coach of course) but there is virtually no statistical or eye test argument for Darius Bazley to be better than Grant Williams at the NBA level. Bazley got about two more games worth of run last season (and more MPG) and still wasn't near the player that Willams was.


Its entirely possible that Bazley will be far better than Williams this season but unless there is some information we aren't seeing, Grant was the superior player in terms of skills that help win games last year by a decent margin.

DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:

Its too early in their careers, let alone three games into the season (every team with one or more losses is looking to blow up their core for Harden and fire their coach of course) but there is virtually no statistical or eye test argument for Darius Bazley to be better than Grant Williams at the NBA level. Bazley got about two more games worth of run last season (and more MPG) and still wasn't near the player that Willams was.


Its entirely possible that Bazley will be far better than Williams this season but unless there is some information we aren't seeing, Grant was the superior player in terms of skills that help win games last year by a decent margin.

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Respectfully disagree. It just exists in smaller sample sizes for Bazley. He averaged 13.0/6.3/1.5 in the 8 game bubble in 27 MPG while shooting 46% from 3. He followed up that performance with a double double in his first game this year. He's also 2 years younger and does not have Williams' height limitations.

Here are the PER 36 Numbers:

Bazley / Williams
PPG: 11.1 / 8.2
RPG: 7.9 / 6.2
APG: 1.3 / 2.4
SPG: 0.7 / 1.0
BPG: 1.3 / 1.2
TOG: 1.4 / 1.7
FG%: 40.1 / 41.1
FT%: 69.4 / 69.0
3PT%: 34.2 / 25.2
ORtg: 97 / 104
DRtg: 108 / 109

Looks to be pretty close to me with Williams being a better passer and their defensive ratings nearly identical. And Bazley did this with 0 college experience and at 2 years younger with less physical development. So, when you make sweeping statements like "still wasn't near the player that Williams was" and "Grant was the superior player in terms of skills that help win games last year by a decent margin", what exactly are you basing it on?

lovegtm said:

Takes about Tatum's ceiling being capped at X have tended to age very poorly, very rapidly.

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I'm not quantifying some sort of ranking at which he's capped. I'm saying he's capped by physical limitations. Those are different. I'd love to be very, very wrong.

CoffeeNerdness said:

I'm not quantifying some sort of ranking at which he's capped. I'm saying he's capped by physical limitations. Those are different. I'd love to be very, very wrong.

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He has been hearing that since college.

Not sure how a 6'9" inspector gadget arms with a very good shot and handle can be considered physically limited. There's like 3 guys on earth who meet those criteria. You have to cover the kid as soon as he gets over halfcourt. He never had Russell Westbrook wheels and hasn't needed them.

BigSoxFan said:

Respectfully disagree. It just exists in smaller sample sizes for Bazley. He averaged 13.0/6.3/1.5 in the 8 game bubble in 27 MPG while shooting 46% from 3. He followed up that performance with a double double in his first game this year. He's also 2 years younger and does not have Williams' height limitations.

Here are the PER 36 Numbers:

Bazley / Williams
PPG: 11.1 / 8.2
RPG: 7.9 / 6.2
APG: 1.3 / 2.4
SPG: 0.7 / 1.0
BPG: 1.3 / 1.2
TOG: 1.4 / 1.7
FG%: 40.1 / 41.1
FT%: 69.4 / 69.0
3PT%: 34.2 / 25.2
ORtg: 97 / 104
DRtg: 108 / 109

Looks to be pretty close to me with Williams being a better passer and their defensive ratings nearly identical. And Bazley did this with 0 college experience and at 2 years younger with less physical development. So, when you make sweeping statements like "still wasn't near the player that Williams was" and "Grant was the superior player in terms of skills that help win games last year by a decent margin", what exactly are you basing it on?

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Apologies - I am referring to the advanced data like PIPM or the new LEBRON stat that DD posted about this weekend. They were both poor offensive players last season, as is to be expected with Bazley grading out the worst amongst rookies using O-PIPM:

Those two were third and fourth worst in OPIPM this season, just slightly ahead of Ferguson (13th worst) and behind (ahead of?) the latest lanky Thunder project Darius Bazley, worst OPIPM in the league.

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To be fair, after a bad start in the bubble, he picked things up but it remains to be seen what his upside is. The other thing to factor in is that while he has height on Willams, the latter has ~ 40 pounds on Bazley. Even with about two inches less wingspan, Williams has the size/leverage to match-up with bigger players than Bazley while still also being able to pick up wings.

Fair. They are completely different players in completely different situations so hard to draw a firm comparison. The Grant Williams pick is certainly defensible and I think he'll have a nice career with Boston. I just think Bazley has the higher upside. It's too bad we didn't come out with both last year. Would have been perfect combo of high floor, higher ceiling picks.

Jimbodandy said:

He has been hearing that since college.

Not sure how a 6'9" inspector gadget arms with a very good shot and handle can be considered physically limited. There's like 3 guys on earth who meet those criteria. You have to cover the kid as soon as he gets over halfcourt. He never had Russell Westbrook wheels and hasn't needed them.

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Very good handle? Agree to disagree there. I think it's precisely his inspector gadget arms, as you call them, which are his physical limitation. I'm open to ideas about why this part of his game is lacking but posts about how he's always had detractors don't really move the discussion forward, imo.

CoffeeNerdness said:

Very good handle? Agree to disagree there. I think it's precisely his inspector gadget arms, as you call them, which are his physical limitation. I'm open to ideas about why this part of his game is lacking but posts about how he's always had detractors don't really move the discussion forward, imo.

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Very good shot, and handle. Definitely not very good handle, so my bad there.

I'm saying that the report on him was that his athleticism was going to hold him back. It hasn't. He's a borderline top 10 player at 22, so those reports were wrong, eh?

For me, the first month of games is essentially a diagnostic tool given the compressed time frame around getting the new season going. It will be very interesting to see how the rotations look once we get into mid-January and whom the coaching staff trusts to be on the floor in key minutes. Unfortunately, fewer games means that each game is more valuable from a seeding perspective so it likely limits how much meaningful run Stevens can give to his other bench guys but I still expect that we will get more mini-experiments with guys like Nesmith, Green and even Edwards or Waters against lesser teams.

I am curious what has kept Nesmith from seeing the floor. I assume its defense but maybe he's just no good.

Jimbodandy said:

Very good shot, and handle. Definitely not very good handle, so my bad there.

I'm saying that the report on him was that his athleticism was going to hold him back. It hasn't. He's a borderline top 10 player at 22, so those reports were wrong, eh?

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I mean if he was as quick as Harden maybe he'd be the best player in the league for the next decade and in that case, his athleticism would be holding him back. The context in which these scouts made their projections is probably important here.

CoffeeNerdness said:

I mean if he was as quick as Harden maybe he'd be the best player in the league for the next decade and in that case, his athleticism would be holding him back. The context in which these scouts made their projections is probably important here.

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I guess if what you're saying is that he may have a ceiling of tenth best player on earth without better finishing ability, then we agree. I just don't see anything so far to indicate that he won't continue to improve at the rim.

Most of the team seems pretty out of whack in the early going. I think that Brown took 1 three yesterday, and Theis seems to be channeling 2019 Grant Williams. I'd be surprised if Tatum's game so far is anything besides the product of a team sorting its identity on both ends. They lost two guys (one permanently) who had their own gravity. It's a weird adjustment period.

Of course small sample size, but the DT TT duo isnt looking great to me. TT seems to be really struggling with his jump hooks. He must be well below 50% on those. DT is letting the 3pas fly, but as mentioned above seems really cold on those. When GW is out there he seems to be getting any interior shot blocked. I know he has a plus wingspan, but is that just from being wide? He seems to play a little shorter than I’d expect.

slamminsammya said:

I am curious what has kept Nesmith from seeing the floor. I assume its defense but maybe he's just no good.

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He was drafted six weeks ago. I understand the question , especially given our lack of wing depth (plus the fact that some of the guys I liked and were drafted later are playing roles on the competition- I’m thinking of Achiuwa and Maxey here), but still, let’s give it a bit more than 6 weeks after he’s drafted to call him a bust.

NomarsFool said:

Of course small sample size, but the DT TT duo isnt looking great to me. TT seems to be really struggling with his jump hooks. He must be well below 50% on those. DT is letting the 3pas fly, but as mentioned above seems really cold on those. When GW is out there he seems to be getting any interior shot blocked. I know he has a plus wingspan, but is that just from being wide? He seems to play a little shorter than I’d expect.

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His release is inconsistent.

NomarsFool said:

When GW is out there he seems to be getting any interior shot blocked. I know he has a plus wingspan, but is that just from being wide? He seems to play a little shorter than I’d expect.

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It's from being short.

I think GWill is still trying to adapt how long and how much space NBA shotblockers can cover. He's either going to have to figure out how to use body better to create space/fouls or he's going to have to start hitting ten footers. But just trying to put the ball up over guys isn't working.

I think he will figure it out, or at least figure out to how to be more effective on plays that he gets the ball in the paint.

NomarsFool said:

Of course small sample size, but the DT TT duo isnt looking great to me. TT seems to be really struggling with his jump hooks. He must be well below 50% on those. DT is letting the 3pas fly, but as mentioned above seems really cold on those. When GW is out there he seems to be getting any interior shot blocked. I know he has a plus wingspan, but is that just from being wide? He seems to play a little shorter than I’d expect.

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I agree that pairing has not worked yet. I am not sure I believe it will, either.

I do get the concept, which I think is that if Theis can be a good corner 3 guy offensively (in theory he could be) it makes them more flexible and tougher defensively and on the boards. But it is still early days at both ends on that.

I’m all for experimenting—the two bigs and the frequent use of two PGs being examples—-early on. This is especially true since Romeo and Kemba are out so options are limited anyway.

PedroKsBambino said:

I agree that pairing has not worked yet. I am not sure I believe it will, either.

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On the other hand, I strongly suspect Nate Bjorkgren thinks the pairing is spectacular and would like to see Stevens employ it early and often in the Celtics next game.

reggiecleveland said:

View: https://twitter.com/Steve_Perrault/status/1343649843261145090?s=19

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That's on Stevens and the myriad of assistants on the coaching staff as much as it is on Tatum.

I don’t think of Harden as super quick as much as he is mega-elite at changing speeds (in addition to his handle). It’s a cross-sport comparison that might be weird but he is sort of basketball’s answer to Leo Messi, who similarly draws defenders in close and has them flailing with impeccable touch and sudden changes in pace and direction.

Tatum has clearly been working on this part of his game over the last year because he knows he’ll never have that top end first step. Before last season his drives were basically all one speed and to one side.

That’s how he will get defenders off-balance, by continuing to improve in his ability change speed and direction. Right now his moves can still tend to be a bit samey and predictable for good defenders, and he ends up relying on his pure shotmaking ability, which is fine but leads to higher degree of difficulty. Once he improves more it’s going to unlock even more for him because he is at his most explosive when he’s able to get downhill and has the rim in his sights.

wade boggs chicken dinner said:

It's from being short.

I think GWill is still trying to adapt how long and how much space NBA shotblockers can cover. He's either going to have to figure out how to use body better to create space/fouls or he's going to have to start hitting ten footers. But just trying to put the ball up over guys isn't working.

I think he will figure it out, or at least figure out to how to be more effective on plays that he gets the ball in the paint.

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I’d kill for him to have Jared Sullinger’s wingspan and general body awareness. That was an undersized strong dude with a big butt who knew how to use it and had better rebounding instincts and some post moves to boot (little hooks and such).

I think Grant has more potential as an outside shooter, better health, and better off-court intangibles/workrate, but definitely needs to be better at working around his limitations.

I may be misremembering but we aren’t far removed from Grant being the only big that was able to slow down Bam a bit when he was absolutely roasting Theis. It’s been a weird offseason so he may need to play himself into shape a bit.

[QUOTE="Jed Zeppelin, post: 4218624, member: 47850"

I may be misremembering but we aren’t far removed from Grant being the only big that was able to slow down Bam a bit when he was absolutely roasting Theis. It’s been a weird offseason so he may need to play himself into shape a bit.
[/QUOTE]
I think this may be true of Thompson and Theis as well. Both were battling nagging injuries in the all too brief preseason.

reggiecleveland said:

View: https://twitter.com/Steve_Perrault/status/1343649843261145090?s=19

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1 out of those 6 shots is about right given the degree of difficulty.

But shouldn't Bam's block be in there?

CoffeeNerdness said:

Very good handle? Agree to disagree there. I think it's precisely his inspector gadget arms, as you call them, which are his physical limitation. I'm open to ideas about why this part of his game is lacking but posts about how he's always had detractors don't really move the discussion forward, imo.

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Jayson Tatum is 22 and one of the top 15 basketball players in the world and people are complaining about his "physical limitations"?

He’s top 15 by value due to age and defensive value but I earnestly don’t think he’s one of the 15 best scorers you want taking that shot right now. He projects to be a guy you want taking that shot for 15 years but his inability to drive threatens his ability to achieve that value

Edit: Because lists are fun

Clearly better to get a bucket or foul late: Durant, Kyrie, Giannis, Beal, Kawhi, George, Harden, Lebron, Davis, Lillard, Doncic,
Curry, (Klay)

As good as or better late: Westbrook, Trae, Oladipo, Embiid, Butler, Lowry, Paul, Murray, Towns, Mitchell, Morant, Jokic

teddykgb said:

He’s top 15 by value due to age and defensive value but I earnestly don’t think he’s one of the 15 best scorers you want taking that shot right now. He projects to be a guy you want taking that shot for 15 years but his inability to drive threatens his ability to achieve that value

Edit: Because lists are fun

Clearly better to get a bucket or foul late: Durant, Kyrie, Giannis, Beal, Kawhi, George, Harden, Lebron, Davis, Lillard, Doncic,
Curry, (Klay)

As good as or better late: Westbrook, Trae, Oladipo, Embiid, Butler, Lowry, Paul, Murray, Towns, Mitchell, Morant, Jokic

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Kyrie? The dude played here, he doesn't go to the free throw line in the playoffs. We know that. Tatum already has a better career FTA average than Kyrie in the playoffs.

People are overreacting to very small samples and ignoring the fact that the Celtics went to the ECF sans Hayward last season. It's been three games, two against playoff teams from last season, and one against a likely playoff team. They could easily be 2-1 (just like the 2021 champion Nets who just lost to the Hornets, lol). This overreaction isn't surprising, but some of these posts are closer to WEEI level analysis than anything rising to the level of this board.

Also, if you think Tatum is more like a top 20 player who can't hit big shots and can't get to the free throw line, there is no point in shipping out Jaylen for Harden. They won't win anyway.

This shit is laughable. Celtics are a top 3 seed in the East and Tatum is in the MVP conversation by season's end. Calm down.

NomarsFool said:

Of course small sample size, but the DT TT duo isnt looking great to me. TT seems to be really struggling with his jump hooks. He must be well below 50% on those. DT is letting the 3pas fly, but as mentioned above seems really cold on those. When GW is out there he seems to be getting any interior shot blocked. I know he has a plus wingspan, but is that just from being wide? He seems to play a little shorter than I’d expect.

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Start Prichard with Smart, Brown, Tatum, and one of the bigs. Make the other team match up to JT at PF. Prichard’s long distance shooting should open up driving lanes, and it never hurts to have another good handle out there.

TripleOT said:

Start Prichard with Smart, Brown, Tatum, and one of the bigs. Make the other team match up to JT at PF. Prichard’s long distance shooting should open up driving lanes, and it never hurts to have another good handle out there.

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Yeah, I’d like to see one of the rookies get a “sink or swim” opportunity in the starting lineup and it looks like Pritchard is closer to being ready. The Theis/Thompson combo just isn’t doing it for me.

wade boggs chicken dinner said:

Jayson Tatum is 22 and one of the top 15 basketball players in the world and people are complaining about his "physical limitations"?

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Where in the world are you getting complaining from?

Not being on the Tatum is da best evah bandwagon is a dangerous game on this board. Yikes.

wade boggs chicken dinner said:

Jayson Tatum is 22 and one of the top 15 basketball players in the world and people are complaining about his "physical limitations"?

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Just ignore it; it’s absurd and not worth responding to.

teddykgb said:

He’s top 15 by value due to age and defensive value but I earnestly don’t think he’s one of the 15 best scorers you want taking that shot right now. He projects to be a guy you want taking that shot for 15 years but his inability to drive threatens his ability to achieve that value

Edit: Because lists are fun

Clearly better to get a bucket or foul late: Durant, Kyrie, Giannis, Beal, Kawhi, George, Harden, Lebron, Davis, Lillard, Doncic,
Curry, (Klay)

As good as or better late: Westbrook, Trae, Oladipo, Embiid, Butler, Lowry, Paul, Murray, Towns, Mitchell, Morant, Jokic

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A couple of those in the first list (George, Klay) are nuts. Klay has never had to be the primary scorer, among other reasons it's nuts. I think Giannis is a better player than Tatum, and a better offensive player, but he's not better at the 'last shot' situation because he has a less diverse game and weaker shooting. I guess you can argue Beal, but he has played so few meaningful games I think most would put him well behind Tatum.

Almost your entire "as good or better late" list is silly. I mean, you might want those guys late but with the exception of Butler (who doesn't always get the shot for Miami) and maybe Jokic you'd just lose a lot more games than having Tatum take the shots late. Have you watched Westbrook at the end of games? Embiid? In both cases probably not since they basically become invisible. Oladipo? Towns? Cmon. Trae Young may get there, I guess, but what is the case he's there now?

I dislike the 'long jumper after iso dribbling' thing for Tatum and have commented on it in several game threads and analysis threads back to last playoffs, so I'm anything but a Tatum fanboy defender. But the above is just as nuts only the opposite way.

I don’t think it’s silly at all. I’m talking about a last shot situation today. Westbrook is likely provocative but id much rather the ball be in the hands of all those guys than Tatum for a last shot today. I know everyone here loves him but he’s a really one dimensional player still and while he has attributes which make it hard to stop him he’s not exactly mystifying defenses out there. He added a step back 3 and it’s an incredibly difficult shot to prevent a guy from getting. But he’s not got the quickness or handle to reliably drive those situations where 5 sets of eyes are on him and he’s not superb at passing the ball to where his drives create space for his teammates.

Top 15 or so in the league is a high bar. If he’s going to be the player who leads the Celtics to their next championship he’s got to be more than a guy who stands a good chance of making a tough long shot to ice games. The other players on the list put more pressure on the other team at all levels, all game. They have to be accounted for whenever they are in the court. Entire defenses have to be shifted to deal with Giannis, Davis, Lebron,etc. Those guys can take it to the rim, take a shot, or create for their teammates. Right now Tatum requires teams to stay with him, certainly put a good defender on him, and generally just double the ball out of his hands because he really isn’t quick enough or powerful enough to penalize that. So the Celtics do an enormous amount of work to try to free him up and make it hard for teams to attack what he can’t do.

I already know what the next ten posts will say. I know his age and I know his rate stats are phenomenal. I know that as long as he has that high release and accuracy he has the potential to be top 5 in the league. I saw him be the most important player on a team that again went deep in the playoffs. But when push came to shove against Miami, it was Adebayo who was simply unguardable, physically imposing his will on the series. In the past, that has been Giannis. Last night it was freaking Malcolm Brogdon who couldn’t be stopped. But if Tatum is going to be THAT guy, or already is the way some of you write about him, he has to be able to shoulder the responsibility of being able to go bucket for bucket with anyone in the league, causing havoc and generally being the guy who kills runs when his team needs it. How often do we see the Celtics suffer these awful 30+ point quarters where nothing is falling and the ball is like a hot potato until eventually Smart decides someone has to shoot it? Every team gives up big quarters and every team goes cold — but the Celtics cam get really bogged down and Tatum isn’t yet at that level where he can claw the team out of those funks.

I don’t intend to overreact to a slightly bad start and these aren’t new thoughts to me. I dont know if there’s anything harder in sports than the alpha scorer on an NBA team. The responsibility to score against another team’s best defender when everyone knows you want to shoot is not really matched by anything. Right now we have cleared the deck to make this Tatums team and it feels like we are seeing that he’s slightly miscast in that role. Maybe he can grow into it and the coach bears plenty of responsibility as well but right now, game on the line, few seconds left Tatum is taking that step back 3 because it probably is the best shot he can generate when all eyes are on him.

wade boggs chicken dinner said:

Jayson Tatum is 22 and one of the top 15 basketball players in the world and people are complaining about his "physical limitations"?

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.
I have seen few athletes that people get so defensive about. Yeah, he has limitations, and when you get up to being elite it still matters/ He is not super explosive in terms of quickness or getting up. He is pretty good, but the the gap matters. I am not sure he gets to top 5 player sint he game because of how many great athletes there are in the NBA.

reggiecleveland said:

.
I have seen few athletes that people get so defensive about. Yeah, he has limitations, and when you get up to being elite it still matters/ He is not super explosive in terms of quickness or getting up. He is pretty good, but the the gap matters. I am not sure he gets to top 5 player sint he game because of how many great athletes there are in the NBA.

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Yeah, he will never be Giannis, Lebron, Shaq level freak athlete.

Offensively he can be Kawhi (possibly better) but not defensively...so, not quite a fit there either.

Interesting to ask the top-5 guy in his athletic tier. Bird is the obvious one, but Tatum can’t touch his passing. Honestly, no one really comes to mind...there’s guys whose passing (Luka) or defense (Kawhi) are other worldly and guys like Steph Curry whose shooting is but for all his great traits nine are at that level

Look at wings who made all nba...there really isn’t a guy like Tatum historically. http://www.espn.com/nba/history/awards/_/id/44

Durant and Dirk are probably the closest comps. Both bigger defensively, though not better. But both better shooters to date.

reggiecleveland said:

.
I have seen few athletes that people get so defensive about. Yeah, he has limitations, and when you get up to being elite it still matters/ He is not super explosive in terms of quickness or getting up. He is pretty good, but the the gap matters. I am not sure he gets to top 5 player sint he game because of how many great athletes there are in the NBA.

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I'm not being defensive. If someone had posted in the JT draft thread that he'd be a top 15 player before his rookie contract is up, we would have been ecstatic. Similarly, we're only slightly less ecstatic about JB and it's unlikely he'll be a top-15 player.

JT is younger than Payton Pritchard. He's gotten better every year and while his leaps may plateau, typically he will continue to get better for the next few years. Maybe that means he'll only get to top-10, who knows? But he works hard; has a lot to learn; and I'm confident that two years from now, he won't go 1-7 on last minute shots over the course of a season.

wade boggs chicken dinner said:

I'm not being defensive. If someone had posted in the JT draft thread that he'd be a top 15 player before his rookie contract is up, we would have been ecstatic. Similarly, we're only slightly less ecstatic about JB and it's unlikely he'll be a top-15 player.

JT is younger than Payton Pritchard. He's gotten better every year and while his leaps may plateau, typically he will continue to get better for the next few years. Maybe that means he'll only get to top-10, who knows? But he works hard; has a lot to learn; and I'm confident that two years from now, he won't go 1-7 on last minute shots over the course of a season.

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Does that really need repeating? We know how old he is. People want to discuss who is, without reliving expectations of the past. The guy is not a freak athletically and it may stop him from being the top5 guy we want him to be. Is he going to be in the dunk contest at age 25? We have been looking at the problems, unwillingness to drive at key times,and athleticism is a factor worth considering.

For an anology when the ball rolled through Buyck's legs we didn't analyze it by saying, "Yeah but we were a .500 team last year and hadn't won 90 games since 1979, would have been estatic to be in the WS back in March!" Hyperbilic example to make a point.

Let's just leave Tatum's age, expectations when we drafted,etc, as givens. Also to be fair the expectation when he was drafted was he was the best player in the draft.

reggiecleveland said:

Let's just leave Tatum's age, expectations when we drafted,etc, as givens. Also to be fair the expectation when he was drafted was he was the best player in the draft.

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That would be Fultz. I'm not sure how one can even argue that.

Could maybe add Ball and Jackson to the list too, but Fultz was easily the consensus #1.

Tatum was "high floor, low ceiling."

reggiecleveland said:

Does that really need repeating? We know how old he is. People want to discuss who is, without reliving expectations of the past. The guy is not a freak athletically and it may stop him from being the top5 guy we want him to be. Is he going to be in the dunk contest at age 25? We have been looking at the problems, unwillingness to drive at key times,and athleticism is a factor worth considering.

For an anology when the ball rolled through Buyck's legs we didn't analyze it by saying, "Yeah but we were a .500 team last year and hadn't won 90 games since 1979, would have been estatic to be in the WS back in March!" Hyperbilic example to make a point.

Let's just leave Tatum's age, expectations when we drafted,etc, as givens. Also to be fair the expectation when he was drafted was he was the best player in the draft.

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If we have repeated JT's age ad nauseum, so have we talked about his athleticism constantly. (BTW, there are lots of potential top-5 guys who aren't going to the dunk contest.)

The only reason I brought it up is because people post about him like he's a finished product. Yes, he loves his step back. From video, you can tell how much he works on it so it's no wonder that's his current go-to move. But while JT is precocious, you of all people know how hard it is to be a consistent #1 scorer in the NBA - who, I might add, is spending a ton of energy on defense unlike a lot of other #1 scorers - while at the same time also trying to figure out how to close games out.

BTW, you analogy is silly, You are comparing one play to a person's career. JT is really, really good. And every year up to now, he's added something to his game. (Speaking of which, I said in another thread that JT has a habit of avoiding contact when he drives but I'd like to see him just starting running defenders over - and get a few charge calls - because when he tries to avoid contact, he doesn't get to the FT line.) His ceiling will be capped when he stops adding to his game, which I hope won't be for several more years. Until then, I;m eager to see how he - and JB - grow.

PedroKsBambino said:

Yeah, he will never be Giannis, Lebron, Shaq level freak athlete.

Offensively he can be Kawhi (possibly better) but not defensively...so, not quite a fit there either.

Interesting to ask the top-5 guy in his athletic tier. Bird is the obvious one, but Tatum can’t touch his passing. Honestly, no one really comes to mind...there’s guys whose passing (Luka) or defense (Kawhi) are other worldly and guys like Steph Curry whose shooting is but for all his great traits nine are at that level

Look at wings who made all nba...there really isn’t a guy like Tatum historically. http://www.espn.com/nba/history/awards/_/id/44

Durant and Dirk are probably the closest comps. Both bigger defensively, though not better. But both better shooters to date.

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This is a really minor point, but Tatum is a better defender than Kawhi in 2020. Kawhi has been trading on reputation for several years now, doesn't put in much effort defensively, and was never a very good help defender.

slamminsammya said:

This is a really minor point, but Tatum is a better defender than Kawhi in 2020. Kawhi has been trading on reputation for several years now, doesn't put in much effort defensively, and was never a very good help defender.

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Not sure I agree, but the point was comparing to the past first team all NBA Kawhi, who was better than Tatum is today

PedroKsBambino said:

Durant and Dirk are probably the closest comps. Both bigger defensively, though not better. But both better shooters to date.

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Career eFG%: Dirk .512, Tatum .523, Durant .542

TripleOT said:

Career eFG%: Dirk .512, Tatum .523, Durant .542

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Comparing 20 years of Dirk to 4 of Tatum is...not really thoughtful. Especially given changes in game, style, and shot selection.

Among many reasons, Dirk was well above league average his first 4 seasons in aggregate. Tatum, much as I love him, is not. https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_stats_per_game.html

Statistics is just harder than pulling one number

PedroKsBambino said:

Comparing 20 years of Dirk to 4 of Tatum is...not really thoughtful. Especially given changes in game, style, and shot selection.

Among many reasons, Dirk was well above league average his first 4 seasons in aggregate. Tatum, much as I love him, is not. https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_stats_per_game.html

Statistics is just harder than pulling one number

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You compared them when you claimed that Dirk was a better shooter.

If you compare their first three seasons, JT is slightly better. If you compare them using Dirk's seasons where the game was played like it is now, JT is better. What seasons did you want to use to back up your assertion that Dirk was a better shooter? And I'm not buying the "league average" argument. If so, would some guy who shot 48% back in the 1950s be considered a better shooter than KD?

TripleOT said:

You compared them when you claimed that Dirk was a better shooter.

If you compare their first three seasons, JT is slightly better. If you compare them using Dirk's seasons where the game was played like it is now, JT is better. What seasons did you want to use to back up your assertion that Dirk was a better shooter? And I'm not buying the "league average" argument. If so, would some guy who shot 48% back in the 1950s be considered a better shooter than KD?

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If you look at league adjusted shooting, Tatum actually comes out as a below average shooter.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/tatumja01.html 99 career average.

Dirk is a 104. https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/n/nowitdi01.html

Tatum is a 111 in 3s, Dirk is a 107.
Tatum is a dreadful 92 in 2s. Dirk is a 104.

The average FG% from 2 last year was .529. Tatum was .480. That is bad. Beal was .545. Brown was .592.


Dirks Career vs League Average
From 2: .496, league: .480
From 3: .390, league .355

Tatum's Career vs League Average
From 2: .483, League: .519
From 3: .401, league: .359


Dirk was much better from 3ft-3pt too.
3-10: Dirk: .405, Tatum .332
10-16: Dirk: .469, Tatum: .418
16-3: Dirk: .474, Tatum: .386


It's almost like there are stats that suggest Dirk may be a better overall shooter, at least to date. Tatum has him from 3.

Can Tatum improve his handle or his passing? Because if he can do either of those, it will improve his ability to drive and thereby make his entire game better. He still has a tendency to look a bit like a new-born fawn when driving. Maybe the recent 2" of height may have compounded that. I would guess that he knows his limitations dribbling and that fuels much of his reliance on step-back jumpers.

Tatum's Career EFG%, not even adjusted .523.

League average during that time: .525.

last year: Tatum .527, league .529.

Granted that doesn't take FT into the equation. That still surprises me, a lot.



Edit: Dirks 1st year in the NBA, the league average EFG% was .466. In his last season, the league average was .524. That's 21 years. WOW. That blows my mind.

I am a huge Tatum fan and believe there's more upside there. But I do think the point Reggie Cleveland made---there is a question about ceiling given athletic profile---is interesting to look at. The guys who were consistent All-NBA level guys had elite athleticism, a single transcendent skill (shooting, passing, defense) which Tatum doesn't yet possess, or both. Just worth considering.

Transcendent players create new molds and value equations, of course, so it could be he gets there through better than most elite player defense, exceptional, modern NBA heavy use of the 3, and building on the enhanced playmaking we saw in the playoffs.

Saints Rest said:

Can Tatum improve his handle or his passing? Because if he can do either of those, it will improve his ability to drive and thereby make his entire game better. He still has a tendency to look a bit like a new-born fawn when driving. Maybe the recent 2" of height may have compounded that. I would guess that he knows his limitations dribbling and that fuels much of his reliance on step-back jumpers.

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Tatum averaged 5 apg in the playoffs last season, compared to 1.9 the previous playoffs. Tatum must make a concerted effort to pass the ball this season. Against Indy Sunday, he had 5 assists in the first half, but didn’t log even one in the second (although a couple of sweet set ups were bricked)

5 assists per game would be a great thing from Tatum

PedroKsBambino said:

Look at wings who made all nba...there really isn’t a guy like Tatum historically. http://www.espn.com/nba/history/awards/_/id/44

Durant and Dirk are probably the closest comps. Both bigger defensively, though not better. But both better shooters to date.

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I'd say the closest comps to JT are: Paul George, Grant Hill, and Chris Mullin (he made it as all-NBA one year as a F). Mullin has the reputation of being a better shooter and maybe Grant Hill is better all-around that JT but to me, there's no reason why JT couldn't come close enough to one of these three to be all-NBA.

TripleOT said:

Tatum averaged 5 apg in the playoffs last season, compared to 1.9 the previous playoffs. Tatum must make a concerted effort to pass the ball this season. Against Indy Sunday, he had 5 assists in the first half, but didn’t log even one in the second (although a couple of sweet set ups were bricked)

5 assists per game would be a great thing from Tatum

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Fair. But not all assists are equal. Swinging the ball on the perimeter to the open guy who drains a three is not the same level of difficulty as the guy who can dish off to an open cutter while driving.

The point I was attempting to make was that if Tatum can become a better passer while driving, then it will make him a much bigger threat at the end of the game with the ball in his hands.