Analysis of Celtics Games (2020-2021)

the moops

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I get it against IND with their two bigs of Sabonis and Turner. Theis and Thompson match up well against them. MIL and BRK are big, but in a far different way though - I doubt we will see Thompson on Durant or Giannis again - that did not look good at all.
 

pjheff

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MIL, BRK, and IND are all pretty big teams. I think the DT/TT combination was dictated by matchups.
I don’t. With Kemba out, Theis and Thompson are among our five best players. And when managing egos, it’s a lot easier to ask a rookie to come off the bench than sit a guy who played well for you as a starter last year (Theis) or your big FA signing (Thompson).

Rather than the matter of who’s starting, the bigger problem seems to be rotations which stems from another issue: lack of wing depth. We’re seeing a lot of minutes with two bigs (and with two smalls) because Grant has been awful, Nesmith isn’t ready, and Ojeleye / Green haven’t been consistently reliable. Stevens has more trust in RWilliams, Teague, and Pritchard right now and is allotting minutes accordingly.
 

mcpickl

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Theis needs to stop playing the 4 next to TT.

DT needs to go back to 15-20mpg at the 5. Rotate TT/DT/TL, based on matchups.
It stinks, but they don't have a bunch of options.

Of their 10 best players currently, 3 are centers, 2 are point guard only, and 5 guys left to play the other 3 spots.

They'd have to get 144 minutes out of Tatum/Brown/Smart/GWill/Semi without playing 2 centers, or both Teague/Pritchard together, if they want their best players to play.

The roster is woefully unbalanced. Even when Kemba comes back, that'll just add a 3rd point guard only to the mix.

At some point, if they stay healthy, they're going to have to move either Theis or RWill, and maybe Teague, to try to find a wing. Even if Romeo comes back healthy and makes a jump, or Nesmith ends up perfoming better than the typical younger mid-first round rookie, they are going to need another option there.

Edit: or what pjheff said in the above post. Didn't realize there was another page of posts, because I'm an idiot.
 
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benhogan

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It stinks, but they don't have a bunch of options.

Of their 10 best players currently, 3 are centers, 2 are point guard only, and 5 guys left to play the other 3 spots.

They'd have to get 144 minutes out of Tatum/Brown/Smart/GWill/Semi without playing 2 centers, or both Teague/Pritchard together, if they want their best players to play.

The roster is woefully unbalanced. Even when Kemba comes back, that'll just add a 3rd point guard only to the mix.

At some point, if they stay healthy, they're going to have to move either Theis or RWill, and maybe Teague, to try to find a wing. Even if Romeo comes back healthy and makes a jump, or Nesmith ends up perfoming better than the typical younger mid-first round rookie, they are going to need another option there.

Edit: or what pjheff said in the above post. Didn't realize there was another page of posts, because I'm an idiot.
I want at least 3 usable (and cheap) Centers because they seem to get injured (esp TL) quite often. I don't see Danny dealing any one of them. Eventually, Brad will start rotating Tristan and Theis in the starting lineup but use the 2-big lineup to match up against certain teams/units.

I don't think for a second Brad is concerned (as much as the media) about who starts, or Daniel Theis' ego. Its always been about who finishes the game, Brad has said that over 100X. He hasn't been going with 2 bigs to finish in any of the tight games. His best 5, that night, have finished.

Teague is dirt cheap (league min) and can be deep bench if 8Mile continues with this progression. Doubt he gets dealt unless it's part of a large deal.

I see the potential of four positive things happening by March 5th (over the next 10 weeks) to make the rotation better:
1. Romeo comes back and plays +defense
2. Nesmith gets minutes. Shoots 40% from 3 and plays passable D against 2nd unit wings.
3. Grant loses 5-10lbs, starts playing good defense again, and hits corner 3s
4. Kemba comes back as a 20pts/gm player

If all those things happen, Danny can save the TPE and add a ~$28MM/yr player (or a combo of players) in the offseason. OR use some of it opportunistically at the trade deadline.

If any one of 1-4 doesn't happen they can add players from the Kanter or VP TPEs or use some of the massive Gordon TPE to paper over them (obviously Kemba is by far the most important element here).
 
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mcpickl

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I see the potential of four positive things happening by March 5th (over the next 10 weeks) to make the rotation better:
1. Romeo comes back and plays +defense
2. Nesmith gets minutes. Shoots 40% from 3 and plays passable D against 2nd unit wings.
3. Grant loses 5-10lbs, starts playing good defense again, and hits corner 3s
4. Kemba comes back as a 20pts/gm player
Kemba will score if he's healthy, he'll get 20 a game if he plays, but will he hold up is the major question.
Grant, I'm not worried about at all. He'll be fine off the bench, but he's a big, not a wing.

Numbers 1 and 2, which again is the spots they absolutely need help, is asking a lot.

Romeo not having any offseason to work on his game, and not being available for quite a while, makes his odds of being impactful this year pretty low I'd say.

Nesmith, as a young, mid-first rounder who went almost a year without playing in any competitive basketball game, I think his odds are even lower.

I get people wanting extra depth at center in case of injuries, or point guard in case of injuries, but they need depth at wing even while being healthy. If any of Smart/Brown/Tatum gets hurt, it's a huge problem. Bigger than it would be if any PG or center got hurt.

If people don't want two of Thompson/Theis/RWill on the floor at the same time, I certainly don't when games matter, you've got one too many centers. It's nice to have an extra for injury insurance, but if you could flip one for a guy who can play for you even when healthy, I think it needs to be considered.
 

benhogan

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Kemba will score if he's healthy, he'll get 20 a game if he plays, but will he hold up is the major question.
Grant, I'm not worried about at all. He'll be fine off the bench, but he's a big, not a wing.

Numbers 1 and 2, which again is the spots they absolutely need help, is asking a lot.

Romeo not having any offseason to work on his game, and not being available for quite a while, makes his odds of being impactful this year pretty low I'd say.

Nesmith, as a young, mid-first rounder who went almost a year without playing in any competitive basketball game, I think his odds are even lower.

I get people wanting extra depth at center in case of injuries, or point guard in case of injuries, but they need depth at wing even while being healthy. If any of Smart/Brown/Tatum gets hurt, it's a huge problem. Bigger than it would be if any PG or center got hurt.

If people don't want two of Thompson/Theis/RWill on the floor at the same time, I certainly don't when games matter, you've got one too many centers. It's nice to have an extra for injury insurance, but if you could flip one for a guy who can play for you even when healthy, I think it needs to be considered.
if 1 & 2 doesn't come together. What kind of wing do you want? I'd like a defense-first bigger wing and I suspect Danny will add one from a team that disappoints. PJ Tucker makes sense if it goes bad in Houston.

Not much in the way of defense, but I kind of have an interest in Mykhaliuk as a buy-low candidate.

Who are you keeping an eye on?
 
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mcpickl

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if 1 & 2 doesn't come together. What kind of wing do you want? I'd like a defense-first bigger wing and I suspect Danny will add one from a team that disappoints. PJ Tucker makes sense if it goes bad in Houston.

Not much in the way of defense, but I kind of have an interest in Mykhaliuk as a buy-low candidate.

Who are you keeping an eye on?
I would take any wing, like almost any wing, that's just a veteran pro that knows what he's doing. If he could be an average defender and outside shooter, I'd take him. Anything more would be a bonus.

It's hard to target particular guys because I don't think there will be many sellers this year. Those play-in games are going to keep too many teams, and their owners that want to male the playoffs, in the hunt.

At the deadline last year, there were only four teams in the league that were more than 3 games out of the the 10th spot. And I think the bottom of the east is going to be so bad, that most of those teams will be within striking distance of the play-in games that they may not move the few useful guys they have. I'd want to strike early, like now, because I think it's going to be a sellers market at the deadline.

So the only target I have right now, and has been the same for a month, is the very available Trevor Ariza.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I've been of the view all along they needed more wing depth and tonight doesn't change that for me. I'd

Right now RHJ is the best guy out there, but he's not a great fit...they don't need another non-shooter.

A guy I think might become available and would be an interesting fit is Josh Hart---they have a lot of depth and need to find minutes for two additional guards (Lewis/NAW)...but likely won't be available cheap enough for it to make sense. Not a great shooter, but competent and does everything else pretty well. He's similar to what I think a healthy Romeo might be this year, but Hart is more versatile offensively than today's Romeo
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I would take any wing, like almost any wing, that's just a veteran pro that knows what he's doing. If he could be an average defender and outside shooter, I'd take him. Anything more would be a bonus.

It's hard to target particular guys because I don't think there will be many sellers this year. Those play-in games are going to keep too many teams, and their owners that want to male the playoffs, in the hunt.

At the deadline last year, there were only four teams in the league that were more than 3 games out of the the 10th spot. And I think the bottom of the east is going to be so bad, that most of those teams will be within striking distance of the play-in games that they may not move the few useful guys they have. I'd want to strike early, like now, because I think it's going to be a sellers market at the deadline.

So the only target I have right now, and has been the same for a month, is the very available Trevor Ariza.
I know he is not a wing per se but there has been chatter all along, including right before the season, that Bjelcia might be available until the Kings fully guaranteed his contract. I completely agree with your take that the play-in games will constrain the supply of available players so Sacramento may not want to deal him (they look really good with Fox and Haliburton showing polish but maybe with Jabari coming back, they see value in value in dangling Nemanja since he is a UFA). Regardless but he'd help add a bucket getter to put with the second unit. His defense is eye-test below average but he grades out ok using some metrics for whatever its worth. At the very least, he fits between the MBPC bull market for bigs and the evolving axiom that you can't have enough wing-y length as well as snipers.
 
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wade boggs chicken dinner

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Romeo not having any offseason to work on his game, and not being available for quite a while, makes his odds of being impactful this year pretty low I'd say
BTW, on one of the broadcasts, Scal said that Romeo was working hard on his game - even participating in every practice - just doing everything left-handed. He'll get minutes because of his defense and I;m sure he'll score too because he's so gifted. He just has to stay healthy.

Also, if Grant can play good minutes at a hybrid 3-4 role, I think the roster would work better. But while hehad a nice post-up (oner Anderson I believe), I am concerned that he couldn't stay in front of Anderson when last year he was staying in front of the likes of Van Vleet.
 

JCizzle

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BTW, on one of the broadcasts, Scal said that Romeo was working hard on his game - even participating in every practice - just doing everything left-handed. He'll get minutes because of his defense and I;m sure he'll score too because he's so gifted. He just has to stay healthy.

Also, if Grant can play good minutes at a hybrid 3-4 role, I think the roster would work better. But while hehad a nice post-up (oner Anderson I believe), I am concerned that he couldn't stay in front of Anderson when last year he was staying in front of the likes of Van Vleet.
It's great that he can defend, but the kid really needs to learn how to shoot. His lost development on developing his shot is huge to me. He just doesn't seem to be athletic enough to get to the rim consistently at this level. Solid defender...it's everything else that worries me unless he magically learned to shoot without his dominant hand. Seems like a good kid though so I hope he figures it out.
 

luckiestman

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It's great that he can defend, but the kid really needs to learn how to shoot. His lost development on developing his shot is huge to me. He just doesn't seem to be athletic enough to get to the rim consistently at this level. Solid defender...it's everything else that worries me unless he magically learned to shoot without his dominant hand.
He looked like a good athlete from what I remember but I only remember him a bit.
 

JCizzle

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He looked like a good athlete from what I remember but I only remember him a bit.
I just don't recall him with much explosiveness getting to the rim. Fine for a guy like Tatum who can shoot from half court, but less so for a guy like Langford. I'm going off memory too so I might be off.
 

lovegtm

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Yeah Romeo is a plus athlete, even by NBA standards. He has looked bad on offense because he really, really needs on-ball reps, but there simply weren't any of those last year (too many ballhandlers and the team was too good to do development).

I expect him to look a lot better this year with the better fit and opportunity.
 

lovegtm

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...
So the only target I have right now, and has been the same for a month, is the very available Trevor Ariza.
And as a bonus, Ariza could spell Brown whenever Jaylen has to take a game off, with no dropoff in production.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Can Tatum improve his handle or his passing? Because if he can do either of those, it will improve his ability to drive and thereby make his entire game better. He still has a tendency to look a bit like a new-born fawn when driving. Maybe the recent 2" of height may have compounded that. I would guess that he knows his limitations dribbling and that fuels much of his reliance on step-back jumpers.
Yes. There is plenty of room for improvement in Tatum's game right now, but a lot of it is in achievable things. He showed some solid passing ability in the playoffs last year. He can work on his handle and on finishing at the rim. He's improved a ton since his rookie year already, I don;t see any rason to think that's going to stop.
I am a huge Tatum fan and believe there's more upside there. But I do think the point Reggie Cleveland made---there is a question about ceiling given athletic profile---is interesting to look at. The guys who were consistent All-NBA level guys had elite athleticism, a single transcendent skill (shooting, passing, defense) which Tatum doesn't yet possess, or both. Just worth considering.
I think he's a better athlete - if a less flashy one - than he gets credit for. There's more to athleticism than Jaylen Brown stuff.
Fair. But not all assists are equal. Swinging the ball on the perimeter to the open guy who drains a three is not the same level of difficulty as the guy who can dish off to an open cutter while driving.

The point I was attempting to make was that if Tatum can become a better passer while driving, then it will make him a much bigger threat at the end of the game with the ball in his hands.
I think if you watch his highlights you will see tat he does make those plays, so the potential is there. Many of his assists are better than just swinging the ball to an open shooter.

Big picture through 5 games: this is a very different team than the one we saw last year, with Hayward gone and Kemba out for now. Through 5 games, three of their top 7 players in minutes weren't here last year (Thompson, Teague, Pritchard). They are very much in "still figuring things out" mode which is understandable. The leap from Jaylen Brown has been impressive. Too early to be too worried.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I just don't recall him with much explosiveness getting to the rim. Fine for a guy like Tatum who can shoot from half court, but less so for a guy like Langford. I'm going off memory too so I might be off.
One of Romeo's strengths coming out of college was his ability to finish at the rim. He may not jump out of the building but his combination of size, quickness, and leaping ability makes him plenty of athletic for NBA. I don't if this is accurate but one website last spring said that the Cs staff told them Romeo was the best on-ball defender BOS had last year. And from the highlights above, he can certainly score at the rim and off the PnR.

He'll be a 10-year NBA player if healthy and if he can stay healthy AND learn to shoot 3s, he's going to make 9 figures.
 

Eddie Jurak

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This team needs some wing depth, particularly among guys who can contribute on the defensive end. Langford will be a welcome addition when he is ready to go.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I think he's a better athlete - if a less flashy one - than he gets credit for. There's more to athleticism than Jaylen Brown stuff.
No question, and certainly didn't suggest otherwise. However, if you look at the guys described for all-NBA teams at wing spots would you argue that all-in he is equal athletically? I just dont' think that's defensible. He is in the range where skills matter more, because he's a good enough athlete...and, he will not be Kawhi or Lebron or that kind of athlete either.

Ariza to me is better to hope for a buy-out. Celts don't really have a salary match for him at $12 mil and that limits options on the rest of the TPE for a real, but limited, upgrade imo. I think the error was not adding a vet wing in offseason to address this, but too late now.

I am guessing they thought Grant might be able to play enough 3 to get by the first month or so. I continue to think he's a potentially useful part but agree with the view he's a little thicker and really not looking viable at the 3
 

benhogan

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I hope we continue to see a Teague, Smart, Tatum, Brown, Theis or TT starting lineup going forward (until Kemba is ready).

8 Mile/TL provide some nice energy off the bench and create a nice PnR combination

Not concerned in the least with Brad developing Grant, Nesmith and eventually Langford with regular-season rotational minutes.
 

TripleOT

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The Celtics can always add a veteran wing at the deadline if they can't develop someone to be a reliable fourth wing after JT, JB, and Smart. Prichard as a viable rotation guy allows them to play Smart exclusively as a wing.

I'm not a fan of the two bigs lineup, and could care less about matching up with the few teams that play two bigs. I'm very confident that they will much more trouble defending one of the Celtics wings with a big than the Celtics would have trouble defending them with a smaller guy.

These guys who score a gazillion points in HS, AND have the requisite size, athleticism, and work ethic, usually are rotation NBA players if the can figure it out on the defensive end. Strangely with Romeo, he seems to have his defense ahead of his offense, which could be because of the shot mechanics overhaul.

I've been down on Romeo because he's always injured. Hopefully he can get and stay healthy, because he would be useful if he makes any kind of leap from his disappointing rookie season.
 

Jimbodandy

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Also, if Grant can play good minutes at a hybrid 3-4 role, I think the roster would work better. But while hehad a nice post-up (oner Anderson I believe), I am concerned that he couldn't stay in front of Anderson when last year he was staying in front of the likes of Van Vleet.
Couldn't agree more.

They were hoping for stronger Semi, but GW2.0 looks like he's wearing cement shoes this year. He's basically short Kanter right now.
 

shoelace

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God I hope I missing the sarcasm here.
He's taking a playful jab at a post mcpickl made in the Jaylen Brown contract thread last year saying Jaylen's most likely outcome was Trevor Ariza or Danny Green. To be fair, there were others saying it was an overpay as well, which is hilarious in retrospect.

I do agree with mcpickl, though, they probably do need another wing. That said, Brad mentioned that Nesmith hasn't played much partially because he's behind Tatum, Brown and Smart on the wing depth chart. I think Smart starting at the 1 is a product of necessity, Kemba coming back will mitigate their lack of experienced depth at that spot. I expect to see more Kemba/Teague/Pritchard at the 1, Smart, Brown, Tatum and Theis/Thompson/Williams at the 5 lineups once that happens.

If Langford comes back and is decent, or Nesmith takes some strides I think they can get by as is provided they don't have significant injuries.
 
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PedroKsBambino

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He's taking a playful jab at a post mcpickl made in the Jaylen Brown contract thread last year saying Jaylen's most likely outcome was Trevor Ariza or Danny Green. To be fair, there were others saying it was an overpay as well, which is hilarious in retrospect.
If we add the "bad pick" crowd to the "bad contract" crowd it would be a lot of posters! Jaylen has really impressed with his ability to grow and improve, and at this point I think it would be a big mistake to assume that will suddenly stop. Kudos to him.
 

lovegtm

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If we add the "bad pick" crowd to the "bad contract" crowd it would be a lot of posters! Jaylen has really impressed with his ability to grow and improve, and at this point I think it would be a big mistake to assume that will suddenly stop. Kudos to him.
People are really sleeping on his future improvement. He still has scary upside.

If Jaylen had been a 4 year college guy, and this were his 2nd year in the NBA, at the same age, what would people be projecting him as?
 

shoelace

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If we add the "bad pick" crowd to the "bad contract" crowd it would be a lot of posters! Jaylen has really impressed with his ability to grow and improve, and at this point I think it would be a big mistake to assume that will suddenly stop. Kudos to him.
I've always been a Jaylen guy (receipts in the thread on his contract extension among other places), so I'm consistently baffled by the bearish takes. I'm sure someone will chime in and say we're overreacting to a small sample here, and obviously I don't think Jaylen is going to score 28 a game and shoot 60 percent from two, but still. He's still growing and it's thrilling to see.

There does seem to be an unfortunate tendency on this board by some posters to sort of axiomatically underrate Celtics players (and accuse those with more favorable impressions of being fanboys) while simultaneously overrating talent on other teams. This also coincides with the tendency to complain about the lack of young talent on the Celtics bench (in comparison to like the Raptors and such) while never wanting to suffer through the losses and growing pains that come with playing young dudes.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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There does seem to be an unfortunate tendency on this board by some posters to sort of axiomatically underrate Celtics players (and accuse those with more favorable impressions of being fanboys) while simultaneously overrating talent on other teams. This also coincides with the tendency to complain about the lack of young talent on the Celtics bench (in comparison to like the Raptors and such) while never wanting to suffer through the losses and growing pains that come with playing young dudes.
Exactly. We call this "analysis". The confusion arises because its not in response to data but actual traumatic events. In other words, we use the term in the psychological sense.

Edit: And the C's still need a veteran wing/stretch dude imo, even if their younger talent is better than I think.
 

lexrageorge

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He's taking a playful jab at a post mcpickl made in the Jaylen Brown contract thread last year saying Jaylen's most likely outcome was Trevor Ariza or Danny Green. To be fair, there were others saying it was an overpay as well, which is hilarious in retrospect.
At one point, I recall a discussion around the fact that Jaylen's Brown consensus upside was that of a poor man's Jae Crowder. My argument was that outcome would be a huge disappointment for a #3 pick; fortunately, that "consensus" appears to be wrong.
 

Cesar Crespo

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At one point, I recall a discussion around the fact that Jaylen's Brown consensus upside was that of a poor man's Jae Crowder. My argument was that outcome would be a huge disappointment for a #3 pick; fortunately, that "consensus" appears to be wrong.
to be fair, there was a poster or two who thought Jae Crowder was better than Paul George. There are some takes on this board.
 
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NomarsFool

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Obviously Brad is still experimenting, and the priority for the regular season is managing health and developing players more than winning games, but I've been a bit surprised by how much more PT the bigs and smalls have received vs. some of the bench wings (notably Semi and Nesmith). Nesmith is easier to understand, but given how much CBS has trusted Semi in the past (much to SOSH's chagrin at times) he hasn't played much. It seems like CBS has been more likely to play DT and TT together, or PP and Teague together - than to give Semi much time on the court. Semi is currently 10th in minutes played this season.

 

Cesar Crespo

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Would they be any better off with Semi on the court? I'm not sure the C's are any better on offense or defense with Semi on the court instead of TT or Thompson. Barring the first game this year, Semi has been Semi.

Saying the C's need a wing is too simple because they need a wing with size who can stretch the floor.
 

nighthob

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At one point, I recall a discussion around the fact that Jaylen's Brown consensus upside was that of a poor man's Jae Crowder. My argument was that outcome would be a huge disappointment for a #3 pick; fortunately, that "consensus" appears to be wrong.
I recall getting spit-roasted after his rookie year when I took a closer look at his /min production and then compared it to the same numbers from Paul George’s and Jimmy Butler’s rookie campaigns and concluding that I’d been wrong about Brown and that he could be a quality player going forward. It wasn’t until the calendar flipped to 2018 that other skeptics began coming around on him.

Also, I think you have the original upside backwards, I think the consensus was that he’d be a rich man’s Jae Crowder because of superior athleticism/length. And we were still disappointed with that as a potential outcome (I was on the Murray Train pre-draft).
 

mcpickl

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I know he is not a wing per se but there has been chatter all along, including right before the season, that Bjelcia might be available until the Kings fully guaranteed his contract. I completely agree with your take that the play-in games will constrain the supply of available players so Sacramento may not want to deal him (they look really good with Fox and Haliburton showing polish but maybe with Jabari coming back, they see value in value in dangling Nemanja since he is a UFA). Regardless but he'd help add a bucket getter to put with the second unit. His defense is eye-test below average but he grades out ok using some metrics for whatever its worth. At the very least, he fits between the MBPC bull market for bigs and the evolving axiom that you can't have enough wing-y length as well as snipers.
I like him as a player, and I wanted him at the trade deadline last year, but he wouldn't be a priority for me now just because of the roster changes.

I like him as a stretch 4, small ball 5, which would've been perfect last year with Hayward still here and Thompson not here.

I think they need a guy who at minimum can play down to the 3 spot(or for those who don't like using the numbers, a guy who can play with two guys bigger than him)

If one of the centers were moved or injured, he's definitely a guy I'd take. As the roster currently stands, they need a guy who can at least credibly play wing.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Am I the only one who wants to see a starting lineup of
TimeLord
Tatum
Brown
Smart
PP

until Kemba is back? I'm guessing some would prefer Theis but I think TL will be our best big by season's end, if he isn't already.

Also, that lineup makes me realize why TT and Theis start. There's no other line up you could play the 2.
 

luckiestman

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Am I the only one who wants to see a starting lineup of
TimeLord
Tatum
Brown
Smart
PP

until Kemba is back? I'm guessing some would prefer Theis but I think TL will be our best big by season's end, if he isn't already.
no, I agree. I mentioned I wanted the all drafted team to play. If TL was a little better I think it could be good.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Am I the only one who wants to see a starting lineup of
TimeLord
Tatum
Brown
Smart
PP

until Kemba is back? I'm guessing some would prefer Theis but I think TL will be our best big by season's end, if he isn't already.

Also, that lineup makes me realize why TT and Theis start. There's no other line up you could play the 2.
I think that might regularly be the closing lineup, but I think wiser to keep Theis as the starter for now. First, minutes and closing matter most. Second, TW has to prove he is reliable night-to-night and we want him to do so before he becomes a "starter". Third, I actually think TW coming in to change energy level is valuable as you sub out Brown/Tatum and thus good to soak up some early minutes with the more vanilla Theis.
 

Jimbodandy

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Jan 31, 2006
11,572
around the way
I think that might regularly be the closing lineup, but I think wiser to keep Theis as the starter for now. First, minutes and closing matter most. Second, TW has to prove he is reliable night-to-night and we want him to do so before he becomes a "starter". Third, I actually think TW coming in to change energy level is valuable as you sub out Brown/Tatum and thus good to soak up some early minutes with the more vanilla Theis.
Yeah I couldn't agree more. Theis has a higher floor against starting bigs and is more reliable right now on defense. And TL bringing hops off the bench is gold.

Would it be insane to want to keep that lineup and have Kemba be our own Lou Williams?
For sure when he returns, maybe indefinitely. Brilliant idea.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
I think that might regularly be the closing lineup, but I think wiser to keep Theis as the starter for now. First, minutes and closing matter most. Second, TW has to prove he is reliable night-to-night and we want him to do so before he becomes a "starter". Third, I actually think TW coming in to change energy level is valuable as you sub out Brown/Tatum and thus good to soak up some early minutes with the more vanilla Theis.
I guess it doesn't matter much if he starts but I'd like to see him get closer to 25-30 minutes a game assuming he can play with the same energy level and health/fouls aren't an issue. He's like the best of TT and Theis in one. TT is hitting 53.1% of his shots but given his role and shot selection, that's actually terrible. In the early going, Theis has been shooting 3's at a much higher volume but they haven't been dropping. If he's not much of a deep threat, I'm not sure what he has over TL.

It hasn't really translated in the box score or rate stats yet either, but TL has some vision and makes some pretty nifty passes. It's not that hard to envision him being something similar to Clint Capella or Jarrett Allen who is far more active in the passing lanes and better vision. I think we'd be talking way more highly of him if it wasn't for PP and he didn't already miss a game this season.

If TL got some playing time, I could see him putting up something like 10/8/2/1.0/2.0 in 25 minutes on 70%+ shooting. If PP keeps playing 20-25 minutes a game, I see him finishing around 10 points, 4 assists, 1.3 steals on .440/.360/.800 shooting.

If that actually happens, it's huge. Either way, it's been awhile since we've had a few good young basketball players who aren't lottery picks. Had I made those predictions prior to this season, everyone would have laughed and called me crazy. Now, they seem optimistic but not crazy.


edit: I want lots of TL+Tatum on defense. It's so much length.
 
Last edited:

amarshal2

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 25, 2005
4,913
Am I the only one who wants to see a starting lineup of
TimeLord
Tatum
Brown
Smart
PP

until Kemba is back? I'm guessing some would prefer Theis but I think TL will be our best big by season's end, if he isn't already.

Also, that lineup makes me realize why TT and Theis start. There's no other line up you could play the 2.
Its intriguing but think this lineup has a chance to be below average defensively. PP seems like a smart player and I’d guess he’ll have the typical sophomore year defensive leap. Maybe he gets it late this season though we can hope. As much as I’ve enjoyed TL’s recent progression he’s still constantly out of position or lunging at the wrong things. Hopefully he just needs more time and he’ll get there. Right now last years Theis is a much better player.
 

lovegtm

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Apr 30, 2013
12,310
That lineup isn’t crazy at all. Both TL and PP would likely improve more rapidly on the defensive end with reps, and TL’s ability on the short roll makes him a perfect partner for Tatum.

I’m with you re young players—totally changes the team’s outlook.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
That lineup isn’t crazy at all. Both TL and PP would likely improve more rapidly on the defensive end with reps, and TL’s ability on the short roll makes him a perfect partner for Tatum.

I’m with you re young players—totally changes the team’s outlook.
I like Ainge and think his drafting has been mostly ok but I think he's also gotten some slack over the last few years for his non lottery picks. A lot of it is probably just luck but a few teams seem to get lucky a lot (Heat, Denver, Toronto). The hit rate for these picks will always be low and the expected outcome is probably "non contributor" but the C's should have hit on at least a couple more over the years with all the picks they had. TL and PP may be some regression to the mean. Yeah, positive variance!

I'm sure I'm preaching to the choir but it can't be stated enough how valuable it is to have your late 1st round picks be able to contribute positive value for more than a year or at all on their rookie deals. We are getting 4 from PP and 2 from TL, health permitting and barring any trades. And we still have 2 lottery picks that have considerably better changes of turning into starters that Boston re ups. I'm not as high on Grant but some of you are so I'll mention him too. Again though, there's a huge difference between PP and Grant Williams, even Grant Williams of last year. I think that's part of Rad's point. We are just starved for young, non lottery pick players that we've been hyping up a guy who averaged 3.4 points and 2.6 rebounds on .412/.250/.722 shooting in 15.1 mpg his rookie year. That's playing, that's not contributing.

I'm the same guy who last year was always shitting on these picks because most of them do suck... but when they hit... again, it is HUGE. You get a fringe starter on a rookie deal. Arguably, the only thing bigger is having someone like Tatum on a rookie deal.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,427
Santa Monica
I think that might regularly be the closing lineup, but I think wiser to keep Theis as the starter for now. First, minutes and closing matter most. Second, TW has to prove he is reliable night-to-night and we want him to do so before he becomes a "starter". Third, I actually think TW coming in to change energy level is valuable as you sub out Brown/Tatum and thus good to soak up some early minutes with the more vanilla Theis.
Yep., agree with this. Teague and Theis /or TT in the starting line. Then spring 8Mile and TL on the opponents 2nd unit

If TL can play D then there is no reason to not have a closing lineup with him and 8Mile on it
 

mcpickl

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2007
4,557
I like Ainge and think his drafting has been mostly ok but I think he's also gotten some slack over the last few years for his non lottery picks. A lot of it is probably just luck but a few teams seem to get lucky a lot (Heat, Denver, Toronto). The hit rate for these picks will always be low and the expected outcome is probably "non contributor" but the C's should have hit on at least a couple more over the years with all the picks they had. TL and PP may be some regression to the mean. Yeah, positive variance!

I'm sure I'm preaching to the choir but it can't be stated enough how valuable it is to have your late 1st round picks be able to contribute positive value for more than a year or at all on their rookie deals. We are getting 4 from PP and 2 from TL, health permitting and barring any trades. And we still have 2 lottery picks that have considerably better changes of turning into starters that Boston re ups. I'm not as high on Grant but some of you are so I'll mention him too. Again though, there's a huge difference between PP and Grant Williams, even Grant Williams of last year. I think that's part of Rad's point. We are just starved for young, non lottery pick players that we've been hyping up a guy who averaged 3.4 points and 2.6 rebounds on .412/.250/.722 shooting in 15.1 mpg his rookie year. That's playing, that's not contributing.

I'm the same guy who last year was always shitting on these picks because most of them do suck... but when they hit... again, it is HUGE. You get a fringe starter on a rookie deal. Arguably, the only thing bigger is having someone like Tatum on a rookie deal.
What is this?

His first four picks in the drafts preceding Time Lord pick, where I guess you're saying he turned it around?, were Tatum, Brown, Rozier and Smart. That's pretty, pretty, pretty good.

I'm stunned that Ainge still gets criticized for his drafting. He's had 3 top ten picks his whole time here, and they range between hits and home runs. His highest miss is Marcus Banks at #13, 17 years ago. And he's pulled a bunch of useful NBA players from his non-premium picks.

Really tough grading system here.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
What is this?

His first four picks in the drafts preceding Time Lord pick, where I guess you're saying he turned it around?, were Tatum, Brown, Rozier and Smart. That's pretty, pretty, pretty good.

I'm stunned that Ainge still gets criticized for his drafting. He's had 3 top ten picks his whole time here, and they range between hits and home runs. His highest miss is Marcus Banks at #13, 17 years ago. And he's pulled a bunch of useful NBA players from his non-premium picks.

Really tough grading system here.
Non lottery. Rozier is definitely one of the gets for non lottery picks. And like I said, most of those picks aren't good but Ainge has had enough that you'd think he'd have lucked into a few more hits. He had a few hits earlier on with Delonte, Al, Tony, Big Baby.
 

lovegtm

Member
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Apr 30, 2013
12,310
Miami/Denver/Tor do a good job, but just a few picks can swing things wildly. For example, does Miami get more credit for picking Herro when, by all reports, the Celtics were all in on him and trying hard to move up? Without the Siakam pick, does Toronto have much besides Van Vleet to show?

As you said, it’s important to keep in mind variance. Even a good drafter will have good and bad runs, sometimes for multiple years. You just hope the bad runs don’t come at the exact time you need help for your young stud core....