Harry got a fine amount of targets in 2019 - he was targeted on 11.8% of his snaps, which is less than Edelman (14.8%) or White (19.2%, skewed because he plays disproportionately on passing downs) but similar to Sanu (12.3%), Meyers (9.7%), Gordon (11.1%) and more than the TEs. The problem is he was the least efficient receiver in the entire league on a per-target basis. Now he improved in that area in 2020, when he upgraded to being like the third-least-efficient receiver in the entire league. That's the issue here, not volume. He did a terrible job with the opportunities he had.
But WHY? Again, looking at 2020 numbers, here are some pass-catchers that are similar to him from the data (not necessarily in size or speed or whatever...just the data):
Cushion (5.9-6.1)
- Fitzgerald: 6.1
- JuJu: 6.1
- Hamler: 6.1
- Herndon: 6.1
- Hamilton: 6.1
- Ridley: 6.1
- Harry: 6.0
- Fulgham: 6.0
- Crowder: 6.0
- DJ Moore: 6.0
- Perriman: 5.9
- Gesicki: 5.9
- Boyd: 5.9
- Lamb: 5.9
- Ertz: 5.9
- Sample: 5.9
Separation (3.0-2.8)
- Hooper (3.0)
- Graham (3.0)
- Kelce (3.0)
- Shepard (3.0)
- Lamb (3.0)
- Ebron (3.0)
- Cooks (3.0)
- Byrd (3.0)
- Fuller (3.0)
- Ertz (3.0)
- Miller (3.0)
- Waller (3.0)
- Godwin (3.0)
- Diggs (3.0)
- Engram (2.9)
- Allen (2.9)
- Pascal (2.9)
- Ridley (2.9)
- Logan Thomas (2.9)
- R Anderson (2.9)
- Cobb (2.9)
- Harry (2.9)
- Goedert (2.9)
- Bourne (2.8)
- McLaurin (2.8)
- Gage (2.8)
- Evans (2.8)
- Hamilton (2.8)
- Higgins (2.8)
- Conley (2.8)
- Aiyuk (2.8)
- Ford (2.8)
TAY (8.3-7.9)
- Amendola (8.3)
- Knox (8.3)
- Henry (8.3)
- Irv Smith (8.2)
- Shepard (8.2)
- Harry (8.2)
- Watkins (8.1)
- D Johnson (8.1)
- Waller (7.9)
- Beasley (7.9)
- Tonyan (7.9)
So of these guys...
- Lamb is right there with Harry in Cushion and Separation, but his TAY is 9.4 rather than 8.2 for Harry.
- Waller is right there with Harry in TAY and Separation, but his Cushion is 5.8 rather than 6.0 (so it's really close).
- Shepard is right there with Harry in TAY and Separation, but his Cushion is 6.5 rather than 6.0.
- Ridley is right there with Harry in Cushion and Separation, but his TAY is 14.9 rather than 8.2 for Harry.
So I'd say that the three closest comps to Harry from this specific data set are: Lamb, Waller, and Shepard.
Now let's compare those four.
Harry: 6.0 cushion, 2.9 separation, 8.2 TAY, 57.9% catch rate, 4.1 tar/G, 5.4 yds/tar
Lamb: 5.9 cushion, 3.0 separation, 9.4 TAY, 66.7% catch rate, 6.9 tar/G, 8.4 yds/tar
Waller: 5.8 cushion, 3.0 separation, 7.9 TAY, 73.8% catch rate, 9.1 tar/G, 8.2 yds/tar
Shepard: 6.5 cushion, 3.0 separation, 8.2 TAY, 73.3% catch rate, 7.5 tar/G, 7.3 yds/tar
So these guys line up and the cushion the defender is giving them is almost identical - Shepard getting a little more than the other three. And when they run their routes, when the QB throws them the ball, they're getting virtually identical separation. And they're being thrown the ball roughly the same distance down the field on average - Lamb more than the others, but the others are just 3/10 of a yard of difference - or basically one foot - hardly any difference at all. But the differences are:
(1) Volume. Lamb, Waller, and Shepard all got thrown the ball a LOT more than Harry on a per-game basis. I don't know about on a per-snap basis. But we do know that the Pats under Newton hardly threw the ball at all last year compared to everyone else in the NFL. New England was 2nd to last in the NFL in pass attempts. Dallas had 639 (40/g), LV had 551 (34.4/g), NYG had 517 (32.3/g), and NE had just 440 (27.5/g).
(2) Catch rate. The other three had significantly higher catch rates than Harry, despite the same average separation. But again, it's not like Harry is a drop machine - he dropped ONE pass last year. One.
(3) Yards per target. When you put it all together - and this obviously has a lot to do with catch rate - the average yards per target is significantly different.
I know we can say he's just not good, but is that really sufficient for an explanation? He gets as open as these other guys. He doesn't drop passes. He certainly doesn't get thrown to NEARLY as much. But he is targeted, on average, about the same distance downfield as these guys. But their production is way way better.
Is it simply that these other guys make the difficult catches and Harry doesn't? Because he doesn't drop the easy ones. That's not his problem.
Watch this. Just three receptions against the Rams.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ZH6pc5SxBc
But the first one, he leapt for the catch over the middle and took a shot as he caught it. Not an absurdly difficult catch, but not an easy one, especially taking the hit. The second one was indeed terrific - fighting off the defender, out-leaping him for the contested catch. The third one was completely routine. But in two of them, he made very nice plays.
Then this from 2019 against Cincy.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gv5V_FHeg0k
- End around, nice little run.
- Flag on the play but a hell of a diving catch on a deep ball down the right sideline.
- Short pass for a first down, but a good job securing the ball and making sure he made the sticks.
- Another end around, with a nice move to get to the outside for a good gain.
- Great diving catch in the back of the end zone after (1) being open on the corner but didn't get the ball, and (2) adjusting his route when Brady got in trouble.
So again, it doesn't seem like he's not capable of making difficult catches.
So I don't really know what the deal is with him.