Now that the team is a bit over the halfway mark I'm pretty optimistic about the chances of a serious postseason run. That said, I think that there are a couple of reasons to be wary:
- As others have noted the Red Sox are now +4 games over their pythag. While those wins are now in the books, it does suggest that there has been some luck involved which may not hold up. The Rays are -1, Yankees 0, Jays and Astros a staggering -5, and White Sox -2.
- Perhaps more concerning is that the Red Sox are a massive +8 over their BaseRuns pythag. BaseRuns looks at the expected RS and RA numbers based on batting and pitching outcomes independent of sequencing etc. Perhaps there is reason to think that the Sox may be doing something that is contributing to their BaseRuns performance (they are scoring a little more than they "should" but mainly allowing significantly fewer runs than they "should") but it's also possible that this is luck. Rays and White Sox are 0, Yankees -2, Jays -4 and Astros -5.
- According to Umpire Scorecards the Red Sox have been among the teams that have benefited the most from umpiring discrepancies this season with a 60% favored rate and an average favor of +.16 runs (tied for second with the A's and Brewers and behind only Texas at +.23. The Yankees are -.02, Jays -.08, Astros -.12, White Sox -.13 and Rays dead last at -.14.
- The Red Sox have a Strength of Schedule of .496 so far and .500 the rest of the way. The Rays are at .505/.494, Yankees .501/.511, Jays .510/.497.
It's been a great first half, but the Sox have outperformed their pythag and have likely been pretty lucky with sequencing, have benefited from umpire variance while their direct competition has suffered from it, and have enjoyed a softer strength of schedule than the Rays and Jays but have a slightly tougher strength of schedule going forward.