Jayson Tatum's Rise to the Top

chilidawg

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Van Everyman

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Just note Tatum had the votes to be 3rd team All-NBA last season. Some sort of positional nonsense. The NBA is ignoring the whole Wing thing and named 5 PGs to the 3 teams.

The year before Tatum was 11th in All-NBA votes/points and just finished behind Siakam for 2nd team.

The Celtics' .500 record probably dinged Tatum last season. Imagine a strong finish to the season by the C's and his continuous improvement will lead to All-NBA 2nd team (even while shooting 33.4% from 3)
JT talked about this with Reddick. JT received more votes than Kyrie but because his 69 votes were split between guard and forward, Kyrie made it because he had more guard votes than JT and Paul George made it because he had more forward votes than JT. https://nba.nbcsports.com/2021/06/15/jayson-tatum-misses-out-on-25m-because-more-all-nba-voters-put-paul-george-at-f-than-g/

Also, JT mentioned that someone left him off the ballot completely because of the voter didn't like his "shot selection." JT rightly made the point that how can a $30M decision be left up to people who analyze the game that way.
 

lovegtm

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He doesn't but we have to have two guards on the teams. The better question is whether Tatum should be behind the likes of Durant, James, DeRozan
Durant yes, LeBron no, DeRozan is the usual hard question of how much defense matters relative to extremely elite offense.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Anyone questioning whether this is a leap of sorts is welcome to make their case. The burden of proof is now on those folks
I'm not really questioning it, but there was a thread last season talking about how Tatum made a leap and I suggested maybe it was just a stretch of good games. Players do have them.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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If what Tatum is doing since the ~start of the calendar year (again just a rough, arbitrary but logical point for where things turned) is just a stretch of good games we should acknowledge it. Maybe that's what we are seeing but I don't believe so. And again, the data and trend is enough that the onus is on the "not-leveling-up" crowd to show us that he is the same as ever. Or maybe make a case that he is regressing (outside of his 3p% which we all know is below his career norm).
 

benhogan

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JT talked about this with Reddick. JT received more votes than Kyrie but because his 69 votes were split between guard and forward, Kyrie made it because he had more guard votes than JT and Paul George made it because he had more forward votes than JT. https://nba.nbcsports.com/2021/06/15/jayson-tatum-misses-out-on-25m-because-more-all-nba-voters-put-paul-george-at-f-than-g/

Also, JT mentioned that someone left him off the ballot completely because of the voter didn't like his "shot selection." JT rightly made the point that how can a $30M decision be left up to people who analyze the game that way.
The Celtics get the benefit of ~ an extra $8MM/yr to spend, while the CBA/media get the blame. Tatum getting left off on a technicality wasn't the worst outcome for CAP purposes.

JT will need to make an extra Gatorade commercial or two.
 

Cesar Crespo

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If what Tatum is doing since the ~start of the calendar year (again just a rough, arbitrary but logical point for where things turned) is just a stretch of good games we should acknowledge it. Maybe that's what we are seeing but I don't believe so. And again, the data and trend is enough that the onus is on the "not-leveling-up" crowd to show us that he is the same as ever. Or maybe make a case that he is regressing (outside of his 3p% which we all know is below his career norm).
That's the thing with young players. If it is a stretch of good games, we won't know until the good stretch ends. Tatum had some significant room for growth as a playmaker so what we are seeing could very well be real but these "leveling up" posts happen all the time.

I don't know how anyone could say he's regressing (outside of 3p%) though. Maybe prior to December, but players also go on bad stretches of games. It was a 21 game stretch. You are using January as the cut off, so that's a 29 game "good" stretch. Again, maybe it's more than just a good stretch. I'd argue he's been great since Dec 1st, which makes it 41 games (exactly half a season).
TS% by month
.488
.508
.585
.591
.569
.659 (March)


There's also this:
Tatum's first 30 games last year: 35.7 mpg, .433/.364/.877, 24.9 points, 6.9 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 1.3 steals
Tatum's last 34 games last year: 35.8 mpg, .482/.402/.861, 27.8 points, 7.8 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.0 steal

Last April: 15 games, 36.3 mpg, .479/.415/.881, .620 TS%, 29.7 points, 9.1 rebounds, 4.5 assists. He had a 50 point, 43 point and 60 point game that month. He then dropped 50 or whatever in the play in game that isn't recorded and another 50 against Brooklyn.

Maybe he's just a 2nd half player.
 

Spelunker

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I don't know if I've ever seen this move before. Tatum successfully split the double team and then crossed over to un-split it (re-split? reverse split?). If anyone can think of someone else who does that move, I bet it's a point guard, not a 6-8 wing. It looks like something Iverson would do.

View: https://twitter.com/celtics/status/1500574206702071808?s=20&t=dTkamguw_zJeYO4l5mT9uA
It was like an (accidental?) shammgod through a double-team. I've certainly never seen that before.

I also love how it was basically a pick play.
 

benhogan

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Most 50-pt games before 25 (since NBA-ABA combo 1976-77)
Michael Jordan 9
LeBron James 8
Kobe Bryant 5
Jayson Tatum 4
Tracey MacGrady 4

Tatum has ~80 reg season games left before turning 25
 

NomarsFool

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Wow, Jordan and Lebron were quite epic early. Jordan probably began in the NBA older than those others, too.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Booker did it 3 times.

He had 70 against the C's in 16/17. He had a stretch in 18/19 where he scored 59, 50 and 48 points. He is no longer under 25.

Trae Young has done it twice. He's about 200 days younger than Tatum.

Ja Morant has done it once.
 

benhogan

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Booker did it 3 times.

He had 70 against the C's in 16/17. He had a stretch in 18/19 where he scored 59, 50 and 48 points. He is no longer under 25.

Trae Young has done it twice. He's about 200 days younger than Tatum.

Ja Morant has done it once.
funny, I like Booker better now than when he was on those tankers putting up hollow point totals
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Wow, Jordan and Lebron were quite epic early. Jordan probably began in the NBA older than those others, too.
Jordan was a prolific scorer early because nobody gave a fuck if he shot a million times early in his career. In his first 345 games, he shot 8,025 times. That's 24 shots per game.

To date, Tatum has played 351 games (6 more games than Jordan). He's totalled 5711 shots (16.2 shots per game).

In other words, Jordan jacked almost 2500 more shots in his first 350 games than Tatum. LeBron jacked about 1700 more shots in his first 350 games. They were epic because they played for shitty teams and had free reign to throw as many shots at the bucket as possible.
 

slamminsammya

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Jordan was a prolific scorer early because nobody gave a fuck if he shot a million times early in his career. In his first 345 games, he shot 8,025 times. That's 24 shots per game.

To date, Tatum has played 351 games (6 more games than Jordan). He's totalled 5711 shots (16.2 shots per game).

In other words, Jordan jacked almost 2500 more shots in his first 350 games than Tatum. LeBron jacked about 1700 more shots in his first 350 games. They were epic because they played for shitty teams and had free reign to throw as many shots at the bucket as possible.
This is not fair to Jordan. Part of why nobody gave a fuck about him hogging the ball is because he still shot 52% and got to the line 10 times a game which is really really good.
 

nighthob

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Jordan was a prolific scorer early because nobody gave a fuck if he shot a million times early in his career. In his first 345 games, he shot 8,025 times. That's 24 shots per game.

To date, Tatum has played 351 games (6 more games than Jordan). He's totalled 5711 shots (16.2 shots per game).

In other words, Jordan jacked almost 2500 more shots in his first 350 games than Tatum. LeBron jacked about 1700 more shots in his first 350 games. They were epic because they played for shitty teams and had free reign to throw as many shots at the bucket as possible.
Chicago was indeed a pretty crappy team that made the playoffs. Because eight of the eleven teams in the conference went to the playoffs, the Cavs were only shitty in the sense that the rest of the roster sucked and LBJ had to drag them to the playoffs. In his fourth season he dragged an NBDL team to the NBA Finals.
 

benhogan

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I'm not a DWS person but thought I'd pass it along that Tatum leads the league at 3.7.
Jayson Tatum matched up with Kevin Durant on 38 possessions and allowed 9 points
He matched up with Kyrie Irving on 10 possessions and allowed 0 points

It's Tatum's defense that makes him extra special.
 

RorschachsMask

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Jayson Tatum matched up with Kevin Durant on 38 possessions and allowed 9 points
He matched up with Kyrie Irving on 10 possessions and allowed 0 points

It's Tatum's defense that makes him extra special.
That really blew my mind. In a close game where every possession mattered, he allowed 9 points on 48 possessions against two of the best shot makers we’ve ever seen.

KD hit some tough contested shots against him, but mostly Tatum just smothered them to the point of not being able to even get a shot off. He’s not flashy defensively, but god damn the dude is never out of position, and uses his length brilliantly.
 

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Does Tatum have a strong enough reputation in the league to be a draw for free agents or trade candidates?
 

NomarsFool

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That really blew my mind. In a close game where every possession mattered, he allowed 9 points on 48 possessions against two of the best shot makers we’ve ever seen.

KD hit some tough contested shots against him, but mostly Tatum just smothered them to the point of not being able to even get a shot off. He’s not flashy defensively, but god damn the dude is never out of position, and uses his length brilliantly.
They also were very effective in double teaming KD and the other players didn't make them pay for it.
 

benhogan

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Does Tatum have a strong enough reputation in the league to be a draw for free agents or trade candidates?
Beal has been the rumored draw for years and there have been Donovan Mitchell flirtations. Maybe JT eventually taps that Duke Rolodex?

Once JT gets back his 3pt shooting prowess, he'll be a 28-30ppg player. Personally, I'd rather have them only add +++defenders going forward. The Derrick White trade is Page 1 from that playbook. They have the high-level wing scorers in the JAYs and an offensively efficient TL. Grant is growing into a solid bench/efficient/secondary shooter. White/Smart can get buckets when attacking the rim.

They'd have to move Horford to add a FA/big-time trade candidate. I'd be more concerned with replacing Al's D than his offense. No more weak links in the defensive chain.

At this point, you can put the Celtics on the floor with any NBA team and who on the C's are they going to attack?
 

RorschachsMask

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They also were very effective in double teaming KD and the other players didn't make them pay for it.
Yeah anytime KD got a mismatch they threw well timed doubles at him, but the Nets did shoot 44% from three. Quite a few off of those came off of doubling KD, he had 8 assists on 9 potential ones.

You have to pick your battles against a team like that, though.
 
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lovegtm

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Does Tatum have a strong enough reputation in the league to be a draw for free agents or trade candidates?
I think yes, but more with the generation of guys who are all under contract for awhile right now.

If Donovan Mitchell were a free agent this summer, for example, I think the Celtics would have a serious chance of landing him. Same with Ingram and a couple others. All those guys are locked up though, so need disaster to strike their teams (NO might be close to this), or to wait out their current deals.
 

BaseballJones

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This is not fair to Jordan. Part of why nobody gave a fuck about him hogging the ball is because he still shot 52% and got to the line 10 times a game which is really really good.
Yeah, Jordan shooting even contested shots on those Bulls teams was still almost certainly a better shot than anything taken by anyone else on his squad. It's not just that his teammates weren't great; it's that Jordan WAS.
 

Kliq

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Yeah, Jordan shooting even contested shots on those Bulls teams was still almost certainly a better shot than anything taken by anyone else on his squad. It's not just that his teammates weren't great; it's that Jordan WAS.
Yeah, Jordan was really an outlier in his ability to make contested jumpers at an efficient rate while shooting at an incredible volume. The closest comp I think would be Gervin, who had some really remarkable seasons, like in 79-80 when he shot 53% from the field on 25 fga per game (and averaged 33 ppg). Compare that with the year Kobe averaged 35 ppg (45% on 27 fga per game) and you see the difference.
 

kazuneko

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Most 50-pt games before 25 (since NBA-ABA combo 1976-77)
Michael Jordan 9
LeBron James 8
Kobe Bryant 5
Jayson Tatum 4
Tracey MacGrady 4

Tatum has ~80 reg season games left before turning 25
Is there any place where they account for postseason games? It's kind of maddening that Tatum's two most important 50 point games get treated as if they don't count...
 

azsoxpatsfan

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Is there any place where they account for postseason games? It's kind of maddening that Tatum's two most important 50 point games get treated as if they don't count...
The most frustrating thing is that the play-in game doesn’t even count for postseason stats. It’s just in the void
 

Cesar Crespo

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Is there any place where they account for postseason games? It's kind of maddening that Tatum's two most important 50 point games get treated as if they don't count...
Murray's done it twice. Mitchell did it twice.

Jordan did it once.

Under the age of 25, anyway.
 

DGreenwood

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Beal has been the rumored draw for years and there have been Donovan Mitchell flirtations. Maybe JT eventually taps that Duke Rolodex?
I saw something today that Beal is trying to get to Philadelphia in the offseason to play with Harden and Embiid. Maybe the Tatum/Beal bond isn't as strong as it has been reported.

I'm cross-posting this from the Philly thread but it seems relevant to Celtics discussion as well since it's been such a long standing rumor.

Rumor is Bradley Beal will join James Harden and Joel Embiid on 76ers
 

benhogan

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I saw something today that Beal is trying to get to Philadelphia in the offseason to play with Harden and Embiid. Maybe the Tatum/Beal bond isn't as strong as it has been reported.

Rumor is Bradley Beal will join James Harden and Joel Embiid on 76ers
Actually, I'm OK with that. His best days are behind him

If the L.A.Brons got Beal for RWB+++ this summer I'd be a hair concerned about 36 months from now.

I'm lukewarm on Brad Beal. He's giving me a Kemba-vibe. He will cost the 76ers Harris/Maxey/Thybulle + picks.
The Philadephia EGOs will be an ISO solofest. 1-ball with three dudes taking their turn.

I'm fine with the Celtics adding +++defense-first & 3pt shooting floor spacers going forward.
 

DGreenwood

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Actually, I'm OK with that. His best days are behind him

If the L.A.Brons got Beal for RWB+++ this summer I'd be a hair concerned about 36 months from now.

I'm lukewarm on Brad Beal. He's giving me a Kemba-vibe. He will cost the 76ers Harris/Maxey/Thybulle + picks.
The Philadephia EGOs will be an ISO solofest. 1-ball with three dudes taking their turn.

I'm fine with the Celtics adding +++defense-first & 3pt shooting floor spacers going forward.
Yeah, I have an irrational hope that the Celtics pursue a Zach Lavine S&T this offseason, not Beal. I can think of a lot of reasons that won't work out but I can dream.
 

PC Drunken Friar

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I saw something today that Beal is trying to get to Philadelphia in the offseason to play with Harden and Embiid. Maybe the Tatum/Beal bond isn't as strong as it has been reported.

I'm cross-posting this from the Philly thread but it seems relevant to Celtics discussion as well since it's been such a long standing rumor.

Rumor is Bradley Beal will join James Harden and Joel Embiid on 76ers
He is either getting 5 for 246 from Washington or 4 for 179 from someone else. (TBH, not sure how sign-and-trades work here). No part of me wants that.