Red Sox in season discussion

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,966
Maine
Is first base Dalbec’s job? The team said today they’re shuffling him between first, second and left
The team said they were going to try him at 2B and the outfield this spring. That's advanced planning for Casas's eventual call up, but implementing it is also dependent on that call up actually happening. Until it does, whenever that is, yes, Dalbec's job is first base. The "shuffling" as you want to call it may never happen.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,679
The team said they were going to try him at 2B and the outfield this spring. That's advanced planning for Casas's eventual call up, but implementing it is also dependent on that call up actually happening. Until it does, whenever that is, yes, Dalbec's job is first base. The "shuffling" as you want to call it may never happen.
Sure. Are you saying you believe without question the idea that the Sox will move one of the worst defensive first basemen in MLB last year up the defensive spectrum and make him a utility man rather than trade him to a team willing to play him at first? Because I don’t think you do, I think you’re being argumentative for sport.
 

GB5

New Member
Aug 26, 2013
690
Certainly not earth shattering news, but it's the contact issue for Dalbec. When he makes contact, his barrel rates and hard contact make him an elite hitter. Very little soft contact. He just needs to find a way to get bat on ball more frequently. An .800 OPS short money 1st baseman who is going to hit 25-30 home runs, even with slightly negative defense at first is a valuable player. Also worth noting in relation to today's home run, is that he killed the ball in Florida last spring training. Probably their best hitter during the spring. Then they went north and he was a disaster for two months.
 

pokey_reese

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 25, 2008
16,321
Boston, MA
Is first base Dalbec’s job? The team said today they’re shuffling him between first, second and left. Casas mashed through the Arizona Fall League and will start the year in Worcester. He won’t be the starter in April, but could easily take over this year. The new CBA incentives for promoting rookies will probably accelerate that timeline relative to what it would have been a year ago.

Duran doesn’t have the arm for right field. And since Fenway’s RF and CF are equally challenging, I doubt that’d be the direction he’d slide if we keep him.
I mean, I know they said that they are going to try and get Dalbec some reps at second/left in ST, but that's not the same as shuffling him between those positions once the season starts. As of today, yes, I would say that first base is 'his job,' at least to the same degree that CF is Kiké's job, etc. (and the Fangraphs depth chart basically agrees, though obviously it isn't set in stone). Again, I hope that Casas forces the issue, but the difference in probability between that and Casas with a .780 OPS in AAA and Dalbec doing about the same in the majors isn't necessarily that big. Again, not the be-all, end-all, but projection systems like ZiPS and PECOTA project Dalbec as getting more PAs this year with slightly better performance, so I just don't think we should treat Casas coming up and stealing the job as anything like a sure thing. Prospects, even great ones, struggle in the high minors or in their first taste of the bigs and get sent back down, etc. I also don't think that the new CBA incentives are likely to come into play much here, given that Casas doesn't have a bunch of AAA games already under his belt, so the service time isn't likely to be offset by ROY placement compared to some more seasoned competition. Obviously, just my thoughts, ymmv.

I agree that Duran doesn't have the ideal arm for RF at Fenway, but we've been spoiled with some recent cannons out there enough that it feels like more of a requirement than it actually is. If he hits well and has the foot speed to get to most fly balls out there, the runs that having a sub-par arm could cost will likely be balanced out by the value he is bringing elsewhere. There are plenty of mediocre to poor RFers with weak arms who keep their jobs despite letting some runners go first-to-third, because they get 4 PAs per game and only have instances where their arms hurt the team once or twice per week.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,966
Maine
Sure. Are you saying you believe without question the idea that the Sox will move one of the worst defensive first basemen in MLB last year up the defensive spectrum and make him a utility man rather than trade him to a team willing to play him at first? Because I don’t think you do, I think you’re being argumentative for sport.
If when Casas arrives, the choice is move Dalbec around to get his bat in the lineup a few times a week or trade him away, I think you hold on to him as Casas insurance unless or until you can pick up another RHH backup 1B. Which conceivably could be next winter as it is this June.

Incidentally, I think Dalbec can be better defensively at 1B than his 2021 performance/metrics showed. He was an average defender at 3B in the minors. No reason to think he can't improve to at least that at 1B and perhaps be passable in LF with some work. He's not a complete stiff.
 

rockchalkredsox

New Member
Oct 31, 2013
28
Well ... I would have liked Bloom to have signed Suzuki and/or Schwarber, and I'd be okay if he did it at the money they in fact got ....
Signing both Schwarber and Suzuki would increase the payroll by nearly $37 million and take it about $17 million over the luxury tax threshold this year. Next year we have to replace CF, SS, C, and multiple SP and RP. I left DH out because I assume that's where you would slide Schwarber in your example, which may or may not be Bloom's preference for how to best manage that lineup slot. And then this time in two years you'll be continuing to put Bloom on blast because he failed to sign Devers to an extension due to the payroll construction.

None of this addresses the lineup strategy issues for this year with both Suzuki and Schwarber which would require two of Verdugo/Hernandez/Suzuki/Schwarber/Martinez/Bradley sitting every game.
 

cantor44

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 23, 2020
1,645
Chicago, IL
So your good if he stands pat moving forward?
Well, I think there are slim pickins at this point and that's a great disappointment - that to me is on Bloom. Story upgrades the roster, but could be disruptive to the team's relationship with Xander, and depending on length of contract, could block arguably our two best prospects.

Meanwhile, given that an outfielder wasn't lined up, the trade of Renfroe is very confusing. A couple prospects, I guess, but the major league roster was downgraded.

So, your question is: now that Bloom has not succeeded at improving the team by snagging any of the top 2022 free agents, what do I think he should do?

Shit, I dunno ... I guess get the best RH outfielder remaining to compliment the roster .... maybe there's a trade out there, but that's much more difficult for a fan to assess than signing a FA, given that there are more unknowns ....
 

cantor44

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 23, 2020
1,645
Chicago, IL
Signing both Schwarber and Suzuki would increase the payroll by nearly $37 million and take it about $17 million over the luxury tax threshold this year. Next year we have to replace CF, SS, C, and multiple SP and RP. I left DH out because I assume that's where you would slide Schwarber in your example, which may or may not be Bloom's preference for how to best manage that lineup slot. And then this time in two years you'll be continuing to put Bloom on blast because he failed to sign Devers to an extension due to the payroll construction.

None of this addresses the lineup strategy issues for this year with both Suzuki and Schwarber which would require two of Verdugo/Hernandez/Suzuki/Schwarber/Martinez/Bradley sitting every game.
Sorry - seeing this now, after sending my last post, don't mean to clog up the works.

But for shits and giggles, in the hypothetical: Bradley sitting isn't so bad is it? He could be a nice part time player. Getting Schwarb might have meant trading JD, or living with the log jam for a year, knowing JD is gone the next year. Dalbec could've sat some, too. Kiké to second ...But if you traded JD, and considered JBJ a fourth outfielder, there would have been plenty of playing time for the core players.

But, alas, all water under the bridge
 

YTF

Member
SoSH Member
Signing both Schwarber and Suzuki would increase the payroll by nearly $37 million and take it about $17 million over the luxury tax threshold this year. Next year we have to replace CF, SS, C, and multiple SP and RP. I left DH out because I assume that's where you would slide Schwarber in your example, which may or may not be Bloom's preference for how to best manage that lineup slot. And then this time in two years you'll be continuing to put Bloom on blast because he failed to sign Devers to an extension due to the payroll construction.

None of this addresses the lineup strategy issues for this year with both Suzuki and Schwarber which would require two of Verdugo/Hernandez/Suzuki/Schwarber/Martinez/Bradley sitting every game.
IMO the $37M was too much for the pair, but moving Martinez would have eased the luxury tax concerns and left Schwarber as the DH with Verdugo, Hernandez and Suzuki as your presumptive starting OF and Bradley as your fourth.
 

BringBackMo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
1,332
I’m as excited as anyone about Casas, but I agree that the team should be cautious in its expectations about his development. There’s the general point RHF made about even the best prospects often struggling in AAA or the majors, but there’s also the cautionary note Alex Speier sounded on a recent Sox Prospects podcast. In analyzing the system for Baseball America, Speier said that even though you can see the potential, and even though scouts love him, Casas has yet to actually dominate a league over the course of a full season the way that can’t-miss prospects typically do. Now that’s obviously just one voice but it‘s an experienced and respected one. To be clear, Speier spoke glowingly about Casas, reflecting what he said are the great things he hears about him both in and out of the organization. He’s a terrific prospect and there’s no doubt that Casas has been dominant for stretches. He’s got a great chance to be an impact player, in other words, but I think there are good reasons to keep Bobby D around for now.

EDIT: For anyone interested, the Speier podcast in question is from December 20. Lot of good stuff about the system in it.
 
Last edited:

DeadlySplitter

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 20, 2015
33,700
It wouldn't surprise me if Bloom truly thinks JBJ will outperform Renfroe this year, or at least be close. I certainly think Renfroe is more likely than not to come down to earth.
 

Seels

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
4,980
NH
I'd say that David Price worked out OK. Add David Ortiz, Johnny Damon, Bill Mueller, Keith Foulke and Adrian Beltre to that list.
You're kidding, right? He was a complete albatross against our biggest rival, and was consistently injured. He picked fights in the open with living legends on the team. He cost $169m for 10 WAR. His contract was a major reason this team didn't have the financial flexibility to pursue Mookie.

He only worked out okay if the comparison point is Pablo Sandoval Carl Crawford and Rusney Castillo.
 

DeadlySplitter

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 20, 2015
33,700
By stepping up in the 2018 playoffs when Sale fell off a cliff, Price gets a lot of intangible value by most on that contract, including me. His last 3 starts (ALCS game 5 on short rest, WS game 2, WS game 5 on short rest) were all money.
 

Seels

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
4,980
NH
How would we feel about offering Verdugo an extension right now? Still years away from FA, tack three or four years on to his contract to bring him under team control until his 32/33 season. Probably wouldn't be too expensive and locks up RF for a few more years?
Uh, why? What about Verdugo screams 'lock this guy up'?
 

Scoops Bolling

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 19, 2007
5,927
Uh, why? What about Verdugo screams 'lock this guy up'?
I think you lock him up if you think there's power he's not getting to yet, or if you want to lock in his arb years at a reasonable figure with a club option or two. There's value in having a Max Kepler type asset; not a star, but a cheap league average regular you can pencil in for a number of years. Low risk, medium reward.
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
4,234
Portland
You're kidding, right? He was a complete albatross against our biggest rival, and was consistently injured. He picked fights in the open with living legends on the team. He cost $169m for 10 WAR. His contract was a major reason this team didn't have the financial flexibility to pursue Mookie.

He only worked out okay if the comparison point is Pablo Sandoval Carl Crawford and Rusney Castillo.
He was involved in the Wong trade at the right time at least.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
71,254
He was involved in the Wong trade at the right time at least.
(Not a) Dr. Jon is amused by this line, nicely done.

2 meta observations from a Yankee fan reading this thread:

1) If I had to pick one of the AL East GMs to start a new team for me, I think I would pick Chaim. I am still stunned at how quickly he was able to restock the system, plus he somehow got a team in transition into the ALCS. I get the current frustration but let the man work.

2) I have never been as excited to see NY hit against a BOS pitcher as I was David Price in his last few years in BOS, he looked like Robinson Cano's father at the Home Run Derby against NY.
 

YTF

Member
SoSH Member
You're kidding, right? He was a complete albatross against our biggest rival, and was consistently injured. He picked fights in the open with living legends on the team. He cost $169m for 10 WAR. His contract was a major reason this team didn't have the financial flexibility to pursue Mookie.

He only worked out okay if the comparison point is Pablo Sandoval Carl Crawford and Rusney Castillo.
Ooooooo the outrage. First off I said that Price worked out OK, I claimed nothing more. Injuries issues sure, but he also made 35 starts in '16 and 30 in '18. Was he a Yankee killer, nope. The issue with Eck was handled poorly. Price or no Price, Mookie was never getting the contract in Boston that he got in LA. Look at you last sentence and tell me that you actually believe what you wrote. Was the Price contract a good one? Nope. Did I claim that it was? Nope. Did Price play a large part in the 2018 championship? Yep. Is that why they signed him? Yep. IMO he worked out OK, nothing more.
 

BornToRun

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 4, 2011
17,525
You're kidding, right? He was a complete albatross against our biggest rival, and was consistently injured. He picked fights in the open with living legends on the team. He cost $169m for 10 WAR. His contract was a major reason this team didn't have the financial flexibility to pursue Mookie.

He only worked out okay if the comparison point is Pablo Sandoval Carl Crawford and Rusney Castillo.
Game 5. Game 2. Game 5.
 

Dewey'sCannon

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
871
Maryland
Regarding the future for Dalbec and Duran:

I think it's smart to get Bobby some exposure at 2B and LF, especially since he's essentially already playing out of position at 1B. It's certainly no sure thing that Cases will be up this year, but it's possible he forces his way up and into the lineup, and it's also possible that Bobby is also a solid contributor with the bat. In which case, you want to try to keep them both in the lineup. Bobby is pretty athletic, and seems better (or at least more comfortable) ar 3B than 1B, which mostly seems like a matter of acclimation. He also runs pretty well, and has a strong arm (remember he was a pitcher in college), so I wouldn't be surprised to see them give him a chance in LF as a long-term option if his bat holds up, especially given the lack of OF depth in the minors. Given his legs and his arm, there's a chance he might eventually even be decent in RF (I wouldn't put a large bet on it at this point, but it's not inconceivable).

As for Duran, I think it's clear they really hope he succeeds in CF to take advantage of his speed, but the jury is still very much out on that (as well as whether his bat will be any better than JBJ's). But if he can't play CF, I wonder if they consider moving him back to 2B - his original position - rather than making him a permanent LF. I think he'd be more valuable at 2B than as a corner outfielder. The bar for a bat at 2B is not as high as it is for a corner OF, and maybe he could help keep the seat warm until Yorke is ready (or possibly Downs). I'd be surprised if a FO that's seemingly obsessed with positional flexibility is not at least kicking this idea around in brainstorming sessions.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,679
Can someone explain why the notion that Xander Bogaerts might play left field in a few years is so beyond the pale that people can’t help but invoke the Hanley Ramirez debacle yet Bobby Dalbec, the worst defensive first baseman in baseball (1, 2), should somehow be able to pull it off?
 
Last edited:

StuckOnYouk

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 26, 2006
3,544
CT
I agree with JA about Bloom and I think that as tempting as it may be for him to veer off his pathway on how he wants this organization built - both in terms of farm system and payroll flexibility - he’s just going to stick to his guns at the end.
He must have a year in mind where he envisions the farm system and the cash flow in hand merging together where he thinks we will finally culminate into being an LA Dodgers of the East. 2023? Maybe too early. 2024? I think likely.
Along those lines, when is Juan Soto a free agent- is it 2024?
 

streeter88

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 2, 2006
1,809
Melbourne, Australia
2) I have never been as excited to see NY hit against a BOS pitcher as I was David Price in his last few years in BOS, he looked like Robinson Cano's father at the Home Run Derby against NY.
This made me laugh - a lot. and I was - like many - incredibly frustrated by David Price. He seemed unnecessarily difficult and high maintenance, he maybe had 2 good seasons out of 4, and he was maddeningly inconsistent in the playoffs. But he certainly was one of the key reasons the Sox won it all in 2018, and I think if he were less prickly he would have won WS MVP - he should have.

Edited - not my place to judge how good a teammate he was, but he seemed like a difficult and high maintenance member of the Red Sox, and I think part of the reason he didn't win WS MVP is due to that. We will likely never know precisely how much race impacted how he was perceived / treated / acted / voted for or not, but I suspect it had a lot to do with it, which makes me sad.
 
Last edited:

cantor44

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 23, 2020
1,645
Chicago, IL
The whole point of financial prudence the last couple years was to get us to the next CBA. That might have included a $180m competitive balance tax, but instead we’re at $230 — which greatly favors teams like the Red Sox. Henry is one of the baseball owners who spends the most on on-field talent. Of course Bloom will try to find undervalued guys like Wacha and Refsnyder, but it just doesn’t make any sense to think we’re gonna only do that.

I agree it all starts with Bogaerts. Tell him we want to extend him like an elite 2B and play him there until around 2025, when Verdugo and Schwarber’s contracts are up and Yorke is ready, and then move him to LF/DH. We want him to stay, but we can’t commit to him as the starting shortstop for the next 4-6 years.
It kinda seems like Bloom is only gonna do that. And there ain't no Schwarber on the team ... maybe some nifty trades are coming? I certainly acknowledge anything is possible. But until or unless Bloom starts shifting his actions, I don't think any of us can really know for certain how things will unfold, or how he wants to operate. He dipped the Sox under the tax, CBT was lifted, and still no increase in spending. So now the goal posts are shifting to 2023 or 2024 - that's when Bloom will start spending.

Maybe. Or maybe he likes the idea of never overpaying for anyone and the cleverness required to field a competitive team on less money. We don't know yet.
 

SoxinSeattle

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 6, 2003
2,374
Here
I agree with JA about Bloom and I think that as tempting as it may be for him to veer off his pathway on how he wants this organization built - both in terms of farm system and payroll flexibility - he’s just going to stick to his guns at the end.
He must have a year in mind where he envisions the farm system and the cash flow in hand merging together where he thinks we will finally culminate into being an LA Dodgers of the East. 2023? Maybe too early. 2024? I think likely.
Along those lines, when is Juan Soto a free agent- is it 2024?
Excellent post. Everyone dumping on Chaim is losing the forest for the trees. The Dodgers is what he is building here but it cant happen overnight.
In a way the better than expected 2021 made it harder to wait. We were all prepared for the bridge years and then got an early glimpse of the shining city on the hilltop.
 
Last edited:

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
71,254
It’s such a loaded division also, imagine if BAL ever reenters the league. I think we will all welcome fewer divisional games in 2023.
 

BringBackMo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
1,332
Everyone dumping on Chaim is losing the forest for the trees. The Dodgers is what he is building here but it cant happen overnight.
It was just after my twenty-sixth post arguing basically the same thing you are that I at last came to understand that’s it’s not “everyone” dumping on Bloom. It’s a couple of Eeyores who keep loudly braying the same thing over and over. They diagnosed Bloom with Tampa Bayitis when he got here. They diagnosed Bloom with Tampa Bayitis at the beginning of last season. They diagnosed Bloom with Tampa Bayitis at the trade deadline. They went quiet after the playoff run, and they stayed that way until, a couple of months later, a few sparkly free agents signed elsewhere. That was proof enough to them of Bloom’s Tampa Bayitis. They’re not interested in arguments about improving farm systems. They’re not interested in ALCS appearances. They want big signings and they want them now. And until they get them, they’re gonna bray.

TL/DR: Eeyores gonna Eeyore.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,505
Is there a place that shows defensive stats over the course of a season?
At least by my eyes- Dalbec actually really improved defensively at 1B after the ASB also- definitely enough for me to feel he wasn’t a liability out there and would only continue to improve
 

BringBackMo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
1,332
Is there a place that shows defensive stats over the course of a season?
At least by my eyes- Dalbec actually really improved defensively at 1B after the ASB also- definitely enough for me to feel he wasn’t a liability out there and would only continue to improve
I tend to agree…but also agree that it’s just the eye test for me. I think some of it was getting more reps, and maybe some was just feeling more confident overall once he started to hit.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,679
Is there a place that shows defensive stats over the course of a season?
At least by my eyes- Dalbec actually really improved defensively at 1B after the ASB also- definitely enough for me to feel he wasn’t a liability out there and would only continue to improve
In August he was -3 outs above average at first base, second-worst in the league (Guerrero Jr.). In September he was +1 over 16 games.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,831
It’s been a pretty discouraging offseason for both the Sox and Pats. But as a fan I still am optimistic that both teams can make their seasons enjoyable for us.
 

BringBackMo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
1,332
In August he was -3 outs above average at first base, second-worst in the league (Guerrero Jr.). In September he was +1 over 16 games.
Chawson, I kind of miss that former avatar of yours with the guy orating or whatever he was doing. What happened?
 

Lose Remerswaal

Experiencing Furry Panic
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
It’s been a pretty discouraging offseason for both the Sox and Pats. But as a fan I still am optimistic that both teams can make their seasons enjoyable for us.
The only grade you can give them as of today is Incomplete.

Please read post 2079. Then read it again. Because you dont sound optimistic.

Negativity multiplies itself.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,287
My only curiosity with Chaim's approach in FA this year is understanding when the big spending will come, if it doesn't happen in 2022. The 2023 and 2024 free agent classes are very uninspiring with 2 of the best options already on our team in Bogaerts and Devers. Extensions for both of them should be the baseline and there is clearly room for additional splurges to be made beyond that. Soto is a 2025 free agent but I have to imagine the Nationals don't let him get there. But I would sign him to basically whatever deal Boras requires, as you'd be getting his prime years.

DeGrom has already signaled that he'll be opting out of his deal after this year so he's another potential "splash" target next offseason but you'd be buying his age 34-38 or whatever seasons so there would be some risk there. Clearly, using financial flexibility in trades OKC Thunder style is another possibility. Perhaps Chaim does some more of that in the short run to keep stocking up the farm system, which already looks much, much better than when he arrived.

I remain interested in Story if the interest is mutual and he'd consider 2B.
 

CreightonGubanich

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 13, 2006
1,386
north shore, MA
Unless Bogaerts signs an extension this offseason, which seams unlikely, it's going to be hard to judge this offseason until next year. If Bloom is willing to commit to Bogaerts long term, as a shortstop, I can understand not signing any large free agent contracts this offseason. Extend Bogaerts, extend Devers, let's see what we have in Duran, Dalbec and Casas, and then go from there. Still think they need a right handed OF bat, but I think trying to find the next Hunter Renfroe in the bargain bin is a viable strategy.

But - if the front office isn't willing to commit to Bogaerts on a long term, market value contract, I can't understand why they wouldn't pursue Correa or Story.

My preference would be to just sign Devers and Bogaerts, leave the left side of the infield alone for now, and hope the defense is good enough. My fear is that Bloom isn't willing to do that, and if so, I think not pushing hard to sign Correa, in particular, would be a mistake.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,505
In August he was -3 outs above average at first base, second-worst in the league (Guerrero Jr.). In September he was +1 over 16 games.
Where’d you find that?
But it’s great. I don’t see any reason why he can’t at least be an average defensive 1B with regular reps- 30 HRs, +.800 OPS. That’s a tremendous value. I’m suspecting that Bloom sees him this way.
Would you protect him in the lineup by having him hit between Devers and JDM?
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
12,354
The problem with Dalbec is that he has a lot of trouble with power pitchers; it makes him especially vulnerable to righty relievers and is the reason he was stapled to the bench in the playoffs despite his strong play down the stretch.

With the right partner in a platoon, though, I think he can be valuable. Not sure Shaw is that guy but worth a shot. Also worth seeing if Bobby can build on his second half.

As for where to bat him in the lineup, it’s an interesting question. He crushes lefties so if you can put him in between two left handed batters, that seems ideal.

Something like the following? (Based on current personnel)

Hernandez
Devers
Bogaerts
JD
Verdugo
Dalbec
Bradley
Arroyo
Vazquez
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,287
Unless Bogaerts signs an extension this offseason, which seams unlikely, it's going to be hard to judge this offseason until next year. If Bloom is willing to commit to Bogaerts long term, as a shortstop, I can understand not signing any large free agent contracts this offseason. Extend Bogaerts, extend Devers, let's see what we have in Duran, Dalbec and Casas, and then go from there. Still think they need a right handed OF bat, but I think trying to find the next Hunter Renfroe in the bargain bin is a viable strategy.

But - if the front office isn't willing to commit to Bogaerts on a long term, market value contract, I can't understand why they wouldn't pursue Correa or Story.

My preference would be to just sign Devers and Bogaerts, leave the left side of the infield alone for now, and hope the defense is good enough. My fear is that Bloom isn't willing to do that, and if so, I think not pushing hard to sign Correa, in particular, would be a mistake.
Yeah, I think their Bogaerts valuation is key here. Devers is a nonstarter. Whatever he wants, you basically have to give it to him. Bogaerts is different. He's older and there are legitimate questions about his ability to stay at SS long-term. He’s the classic guy who you want around but don’t want to overpay. If they could sign Correa and trade Bogaerts for something useful, I would consider that option as well.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,679
Where’d you find that?
But it’s great. I don’t see any reason why he can’t at least be an average defensive 1B with regular reps- 30 HRs, +.800 OPS. That’s a tremendous value. I’m suspecting that Bloom sees him this way.
Would you protect him in the lineup by having him hit between Devers and JDM?
Statcast has monthly fielding splits here.

Personally, I’d protect him by trading him to Oakland. But to answer your question, maybe!

JDM’s ability to hit lefties has sharply declined:

2017: 235 wRC+ vs. LHP
2018: 156 wRC+
2019: 242 wRC+
2020: 74 wRC+
2021: 113 wRC+

Still good, but maybe showing some vulnerability. Of course, Dalbec mashes lefties and can’t hit right-handers with velocity (as PIAB just noted). I think the concept of “lineup protection” is a little overblown, but something like that could work if you think it’ll help Dalbec lay off stuff out of the zone. Generally speaking I think you want JDM getting more PAs than Dalbec though, if we’re competitive.
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
8,287
My only curiosity with Chaim's approach in FA this year is understanding when the big spending will come, if it doesn't happen in 2022. The 2023 and 2024 free agent classes are very uninspiring with 2 of the best options already on our team in Bogaerts and Devers. Extensions for both of them should be the baseline and there is clearly room for additional splurges to be made beyond that. Soto is a 2025 free agent but I have to imagine the Nationals don't let him get there. But I would sign him to basically whatever deal Boras requires, as you'd be getting his prime years.

DeGrom has already signaled that he'll be opting out of his deal after this year so he's another potential "splash" target next offseason but you'd be buying his age 34-38 or whatever seasons so there would be some risk there. Clearly, using financial flexibility in trades OKC Thunder style is another possibility. Perhaps Chaim does some more of that in the short run to keep stocking up the farm system, which already looks much, much better than when he arrived.

I remain interested in Story if the interest is mutual and he'd consider 2B.

I have the same exact questions with free agency, and I'll add that I'm not even sure how much they want Bogaerts at SS long term. Which makes Correa seem like a perfect fit, especially with the Yanks and Dodgers seemingly not in competition for him.

The one interesting FA on the horizon that you missed is Ohtani, who hits the market after 2023. Even if he never repeats this year, 25 starts of 115 ERA+ along with an OPS+ of 120 the rest of the time is worthy of the highest salary in the game, right?
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,287
I have the same exact questions with free agency, and I'll add that I'm not even sure how much they want Bogaerts at SS long term. Which makes Correa seem like a perfect fit, especially with the Yanks and Dodgers seemingly not in competition for him.

The one interesting FA on the horizon that you missed is Ohtani, who hits the market after 2023. Even if he never repeats this year, 25 starts of 115 ERA+ along with an OPS+ of 120 the rest of the time is worthy of the highest salary in the game, right?
Ah, yes. Forgot about him although I think he's another unlikely to see FA guy given the LAAA's resources and probable mutual desire to remain with the team. But, yes, he's absolutely someone you splurge on, if the opportunity presents itself. Of course, you'd be fighting off the MFY and others. His bat alone is incredibly valuable even if you strip out or reduce the pitching component.

Correa seems like a logical target for me. He's younger and better than Xander. You'd think a guy of Bogaerts' calibre would net a pretty good prospect or two, if that trade scenario played out. Obviously, wouldn't get a ton given his impending FA status but a year of X is still quite valuable.