Do you sign a guy like Castellanos now or wait until the summer to see if this is a playoff team or not? If they are, they can acquire someone to help Dalbec. My guess is they will be sellers starting with JDM.
Red Sox in season discussion
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Trea Turner was traded mid-season. He didn't exactly choose to go to the Dodgers for that situation.
Semien's not going to be a SS at his new job though, so his position change turned out to be permanent. My presumption is Story intends to be a SS long term. We already have a report that he turned down an offer from the Mariners that involved a position change. If he's reached a point where all he can get is a pillow/make good contract, there are still places that would sign him to be their SS (perhaps Baltimore given the rumors of their interest in Correa).
Why would he want to join a club to play a ML position he's never played before? That's a career change.
It's great if you sign the rare guy who is open to moving positions, especially in the heat of a penant race. . .but they're pretty rare.
The plan is JD at DH, Devers at 3B, Cassas at 1B (sooner or later) and Dalbec as a floater. They just want to maximize Dalbec's chances of getting in the lineup somehow, and allow some PH flexibility.
He won't but I also don't think that the position change impacted his marketability. Instead, it may actually open up options like what Semien experienced. Either way, I'm sure you're right that Story prefers to be SS. Who wants to move when they know they're good? But sometimes situations change and players are often guilty of misreading the market from time to time. There are a bunch of teams who have SS worse than Story but not all would be able/willing to meet his price. If his options become play SS in obscurity (Balt) or 2B for a high profile team like the Sox, he may have a tougher decision to make. Or he may be dead set on being a SS regardless of the team. I think his decision will likely tell the, umm, story. But I also don't think it's a "pipe dream" and is more in the "unlikely" boat.
The two areas the Sox need to improve are pitching and defense. The offense was good last year. Second in slugging. Third in OPS. Fifth in runs. Third in hits. As Romine noted, Schwarber only played in 41 regular season games. Replacing the ABs that Gonzalez/Santana/Chavis etc got last year with a competent outfielder should be a huge step forward.
Unfortunately, the Sox have no clear path forward to improve the team's infield defense and Sale's injury adds to the uncertainly about the pitching staff. It will be fascinating to see what moves Bloom makes moving forward and I'd love to know what he's been trying to accomplish over these last few days.
I agree. I wasn’t trying to give Bloom a pass for this year’s inactivity. And as Kliq pointed out, the RS have attracted a number of FAs over the years. I wasn’t suggesting that it was an all or nothing situation, just musing over whether there were intangibles that made his job a little tougher.
On Bloom’s thinking: It appears that length of contract is more of a concern for him than aggregate dollars. That’s why Correa never made sense to me even if Bogie isn’t extended. If there’s a central motif to his planning, as others have said, it’s ‘flexibility’, not getting so deep into the weeds with a handful of aging or under performing personnel that you can’t make necessary mid course corrections. That’s rational. For the fan, it’s also frustrating.
whoops
I was quite sure the Red Sox were not going to sign a shortstop, and now I kind of believe they are going to sign Story. They clearly have had an intention to spend money to upgrade the lineup, since they presumably made real offers on Suzuki and on Freeman.
Story to 2B would upgrade the lineup and I am fairly convinced they can outbid everyone else involved if they so choose.
I was quite sure the Red Sox were not going to sign a shortstop, and now I kind of believe they are going to sign Story. They clearly have had an intention to spend money to upgrade the lineup, since they presumably made real offers on Suzuki and on Freeman.
Story to 2B would upgrade the lineup and I am fairly convinced they can outbid everyone else involved if they so choose.
For those talking about landing Japanese free agents, let’s be real, none of them seem to be attracted to the east coast teams right now. And it’s a problem that probably grows as more roots are grown on the west coast.
Story could potentially upgrade the infield defense at 2B or SS longer-term. With upcoming changes to the shift, athletic defenders with range playing on the right side of the infield could become more valuable.
Well, that and Japanese free agents’ insatiable hunger for Italian beef sandwiches.
Says the fan of the team that landed Matsui.
edit- I guess that was during the "posting" days. Says the fan of the team that landed Daisuke. I guess those days are no longer and they're just FA's?
I'm with you, I advocated for getting both and then moving JDM for another need. IMO Schwarber's contract was reasonable, but what Suzuki got from the Cubs was above and beyond what most were expecting him to get. I can't fault Bloom for passing at that price. Given the remaining FAs, who do you see as a fit and what would you see as a reasonable contract?
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I laughed. But really, after the courting of Ohtani, I bet a lot of teams are maybe burned out on the song and dance with Japanese players. If all of those stories were true, the courting process was months long and probably cost any particular team several hundred thousand dollars or more. You also use your political equity by engaging celebrities, former athletes, former stars, town officials...etc. It's a big win if you get the player - most of the time - but I can see why some teams just don't engage.
That's likely true. But I don't think he's going to sign on as a second baseman and I'm not convinced he's a good candidate for a long term (5 or more years) contract for the expected price. He and Xander are almost exactly the same age and Xander's been the better offensive player over the last three years. I'm not sure either will be above average defensive shortstops over the course of their next contracts.
I remain skeptical that the Sox made a real offer to Freeman. Heyman today was somehow able to specifically report what the Rays and Braves offered, but could only say "the Sox made an offer."
Villar to the Cubs for $6m -- I'm curious whether the Sox considered making him an offer.
RF issues solved (I kid, I kid):
View: https://twitter.com/BostonStrong_34/status/1504509350794207232
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I have read this three times and still don't understand it. Can you explain?
I mean, before you basically said "they can't get guys" and you were told "they can and did" and now you say this that I just can't figure out
I was hoping Villar might be in play for the Sox. I thought 2/13M might be reasonable.
I have been very skeptical about this too. The only thing that makes me wonder is... so why did the Rays make an offer? What is it about this particular 32-year-old that makes Tampa go to 6/$150M? Assuming we're believing Heyman. And if they saw some magic pixie dust that makes them want to pay 25 million dollars for his age 37 season, maybe the Red Sox saw the same thing? Curious.
Tepid?
Compared to what? Last year's frenzy of high-profile activity that had everyone thinking pennant in March?
https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2021-transactions.shtml
Compared to the team they ended last year with and the teams they are competing with this year?
Last years team, entering the season, was clearly better than the team they had in 2020, even if most didn’t anticipate an ALCS berth.
At this point, projection systems have the Sox as the 4th best team in the division. Of course they play the games on the field and they can continue to make moves, but does anyone think this team looks better than the one that we last saw in Houston?
Last years team, entering the season, was clearly better than the team they had in 2020, even if most didn’t anticipate an ALCS berth.
At this point, projection systems have the Sox as the 4th best team in the division. Of course they play the games on the field and they can continue to make moves, but does anyone think this team looks better than the one that we last saw in Houston?
It didn't take much to look better than that disastrous 2020 team.
Is it really that dramatic a drop that they're projected 4th right now when but for a couple bounces of the ball last year, they were the fourth best team in the division (the 4th place Jays finished only a game behind them). That still could be good enough to make the post-season under the new system.
If we're acknowledging that the roster is still a work in progress as myriad players still sit out there in free agency, then it's silly to get too worked up about where they are right now.
Can you elaborate why you think this?
Story has the 11th-highest fWAR among all position players since 2018, let alone shortstops. If you exclude 2021, when he was hurt through July before rebounding to career marks on Aug-Sep, he has the 9th-highest fWAR among hitters. A 5-year contract would cover his age 29-33 seasons, and in two years our payroll will be roughly $180 million below the new first CBT threshold, which three teams (NYM, LAD, NYY) have already blown past.
Considering the Last-Seen-in-Houston team had all season to bring players back from the DL, fish the waiver wire, and see who got hot. . .it's not really fair to compare it to the 2022 Spring Training team.
But it's interesting to think about it literally - like in terms of the roster.
We lost Schwarber and Renfroe (both of whom didn't exactly set Houston alight).
On the pitching front we lost E-Rod (who was pretty much a league average starter), Ottavino, Robles, and Martin Perez.
Its not like the team was gutted or anything. The core is still there. And it seems pretty comprable to the 2021 Spring Training team. . .but more of the question marks are somewhat resolved. E.g., JD did not Jack Clark off a cliff, as his 2020 suggested he might.
I think a lot of those same things apply to the Yankees and Mets. I believe a lot of players who grew up in rural areas or smaller cities don't love NYC. Some guys like David Cone embrace it, but I think a lot of guys choose to live in New Jersey, Westchester or Long Island (Mets) and have a commute to the ballpark they don't love. It doesn't keep those teams from signing players and I don't think it keeps the Sox from signing players. Bruce Hurst wanted out and got out when he had the chance, then commented later he missed Fenway and the fans fervor in Boston.
Wow, fourth best in the division without even completing their off-season work? Not bad!
He got back into great shape. Haven’t seen him in awhile but seems like he was filling out a bit in the post player days.
Oh, I guess that’s the first “best shape of his life” useless observation of the spring!
Dalbec homers in spring training today. His career in three chunks:
2020 (23 games): 92 PA, 8 hr, .263/.359/.600/.959, 1 hr every 11.5 PA
2021 (games 1-65): 235 PA, 10 hr, .215/.264/.420/.684, 1 hr every 23.5 PA
2021 (games 66-162): 218 PA, 15 hr, .268/.335/.576/.911, 1 hr every 14.5 PA
2020 (23 games): 92 PA, 8 hr, .263/.359/.600/.959, 1 hr every 11.5 PA
2021 (games 1-65): 235 PA, 10 hr, .215/.264/.420/.684, 1 hr every 23.5 PA
2021 (games 66-162): 218 PA, 15 hr, .268/.335/.576/.911, 1 hr every 14.5 PA
2021 K% by month:
Mar/Apr: 33%
May: 39%
June: 39%
July: 39%
August: 25%
Sep/Oct: 32%
Dalbec is basically unplayable when he's striking out at 35-40% of the time, but if that decline later in the season is real, then he could be a real asset in the lineup.
Dalbec is certainly fascinating. Giving proper credit to Sox Prospects, who have documented this tendency for years, Dalbec has been incredibly streaky going all the way back to the early minors. When he's hot he is a beast. When he's cold he is a bunny. I guess the question is, does his second half last year represent a turning point, or was it simply an extended hot streak? I, for one, prefer to keep him around and give him a long leash to find out. But I think we'd all be wise to consider the jury still out on this one.
How are they blocked?
They hit 1-2 today because they were the only guys in the lineup who have a chance of cracking the Opening Day roster, which is a pretty typical lineup construction for spring training. I think you're reading into things to fit your own fantasy narratives.
i like both Dalbec and Duran, but fear their future is elsewhere. My bet is Oakland, which will give them good shot at starting and hopefully give us a starting pitcher.
Well, the thing is: what's reasonable? The goal posts constantly shift on that, year to year ... there is going to be some risk involved and I think Bloom is risk adverse. Of course a top heavy FA dominant team is too much risk ... but you gotta sign a couple guys who are blue chippers, knowing eventually it could be an overpay; BUT knowing that with a good farm, you can offset those overpays with talented cost controlled young players.
The players that seemed like fits given the current roster: Suzuki, Bryant, and Schwarber. The former two got more than I thought they would, but would I be upset if the Sox had signed either of them on those terms? I would not.
I wouldn't considered Dalbec blocked just yet. If he has a consistently good season with the bat he could be a cheap in house replacement for JDM. That could also make him a valuable trade chip, but but I wouldn't call him blocked ATM.
Casas is our first baseman of the future. I don’t think it makes sense to DH Dalbec this young. A lot of people, including the Sox Prospects guys, think Duran is no sure thing to handle center and doesn’t really have the arm for it anyway. He’d be blocked in left by Verdugo.
Also - just yakking about baseball, man! It’s more fun for me to think through some possible roster-building options than indulge in the endless rounds of nostalgia on this board. Not sure why you think a possible trade of Dalbec and Duran — our two best trade chips behind the untouchables Casas, Yorke and Mayer — is a “fantasy narrative,” especially when we’ve barely done anything this offseason and Bloom said yesterday he’s excited about the deals they’re working on.
I didn't ask about year to year shifting goal posts. I'm trying to get a sense of who you see out there that has a chance to help this team now and what you think would be a reasonable contract in $$$ and years. I'm truly trying to get a sense of what you would like Bloom to do.
Not trying to spoil your fun, just yakkin' back. I'm with the others that suggest you can't call the guy who has the job 'blocked,' if anything, you could argue that the position is open for Casas to come and take it, but he is closer to being blocked than Dalbec today. In a year or two, maybe he finds himself without a spot, but that means that Dalbec didn't hit and Casas continued to rake on his way through AAA, neither of which is a sure thing.
For Duran, Kiké certainly has the CF job, but a.) he is a 2023 FA, so it's not like he is locking that position down long term, and b.) I agree that there is reason to think that Duran isn't a CF, but the question about him is the bat. If he hits, he can likely play passable enough defense even with an average arm to take the RF job.
I'm not saying that the idea of trading Dalbec or Duran or anyone is out of the realm of possibility. We all like to play GM on occasion and that's fine. You just seem to have a habit of trying to tie unrelated events together (creating narratives) to make your fantasy trade ideas feel imminent. Hence "fantasy narrative".
My primary concern is his right elbow, which has caused him problems at different times and was a big factor is his down year last year. He has changed his throwing motion to accommodate the issue and his throwing velocity is consistently lower. (There is a chart I saw that tracked the speed of his throws- he regularly threw 85 to low 90s mph through 2019 but over the last 2 years has only one throw that exceeded 85 mph. I'll try to find the diagram.) So, he may be likely to require surgery, which would knock off a prime year of his next contract and/or he will need to change positions, probably to second base. Possibly both. That uncertainty makes me less excited about a long term deal that would likely fall between what Semien and Seager signed earlier this offseason.
I also have some concerns about his relative struggles hitting breaking pitches, which could be amplified playing closer to sea level. But I haven't spent enough time to see if that trend would likely improve if he moves away from Coors Field. (I am familiar with the reporting on that topic comparing other players but I'm not sure if it was broken down by pitch type pre/post move.)
If the Sox are going to sign a 29 year old shortstop with excellent offensive stats and some defensive questions marks, I'd rather have them resign Xander, who has outperformed Story offensively over the last 3 seasons and who doesn't have the injury question marks.
And, correct me if I'm using the wrong source, but I think Xander's fWAR since 2017 is 22 while Story's is 18.5.
EDIT- here is the tweet from Mike Petriello that I referenced above:
View: https://twitter.com/mike_petriello/status/1453782342384988165
Is first base Dalbec’s job? The team said today they’re shuffling him between first, second and left. Casas mashed through the Arizona Fall League and will start the year in Worcester. He won’t be the starter in April, but could easily take over this year. The new CBA incentives for promoting rookies will probably accelerate that timeline relative to what it would have been a year ago.
Duran doesn’t have the arm for right field. And since Fenway’s RF and CF are equally challenging, I doubt that’d be the direction he’d slide if we keep him.
Some variation of this could be said for just about any MLB team. Baseball players often don't winter where they play. Some players hate playing in the Texas heat or the humidity of FL. Neither Tampa nor Miami have been hot bed destinations for free agents. And it's not like the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, or Angels are able to sign free agents at below market contracts. The team's ownership has a good reputation among players, as does Cora, who seems to be very much in tune with the current generation of players.
Certainly, some players will see the negatives and prefer to go elsewhere. But the Sox, as noted, have had plenty of success signing free agents when they put their resources into doing so. And there are times when they will fail in their pursuit, much like every other team has done.