I can see this board losing its collective mind when Verdugo is the Twins AS rep in ‘24 as Rafaela has a .580 OPS… but the prospects Bloom got put 2 more Sox mLers in Baseball Prospectus top 100!!!!
The 2023 Trade Deadline: Scenarios
- Thread starter nvalvo
- Start date
They'd prefer a guy who since the tenth day of the season has been below replacement level with no power and also a lot of strikeouts over their best home run hitter... while trying to win games? While Gallo is a deeply flawed player, he's been fairly important to the Twins sorry lineup and certainly worth far more than just any right-hander with a pulse.
Exactly.
Scenario A:
- ‘23 outfield of Yoshida~Duran~Verdugo (Bench: Kiké, Refsnyder)
- ‘24 outfield of Yoshida~Duran~Verdugo (Bench: Refsnyder, Rafaela?)
- Likelihood of compensation for Verdugo in 2025 draft
Scenario B:
- ‘23 outfield of Yoshida~Duran~Gallo/Refsnyder (Bench: Kiké)
- ‘24 outfield of Yoshida~Duran~Rafaela (Bench: Refsnyder)
- a slim chance of fixing Gallo and convincing him to stick around
- 27.1 “Baseball Trade Value units” worth of another player (roughly the equivalent of Willy Adames, Graham Ashcraft, Edward Cabrera, et al.), or the equivalent in prospects
I’d like to extend Verdugo at like 4/$60 or something. If he’s not into that, then I far prefer Scenario B, which clears a lane to give Rafaela major-league PAs next year.
I was trying to come up with a way to trade Duvall to the Twins for Marco Raya, but the Baseball Trade Simulator says it's a steal for the Sox. I added Bobby Dalbec (why not?), but he has zero value. Zero.
I'm not worried about trading Duvall, because I think what we're seeing now is all that's left.
I'm not worried about trading Duvall, because I think what we're seeing now is all that's left.
Oh for sure. I would trade Duvall for a bag of used balls at this point. Yoshi-Duran-Verdugo with Kiké backing up is a nice OF, and hopefully adding Rafaela next years is a good problem to have.
That 40 man spot could be useful, too.
I prefer to call myself a Verdugo realist! Definitely don’t hate the guy, just don’t see him as someone we gotta extend, especially after Duran’s leap. He’s a good player with great bat-to-ball skills who plays an average right field with a solid arm, but a low-ISO ground ball hitter with platoon concerns. I think Gallo/Ref could replicate his production pretty well.
But I’m just riffing on Gammo’s (rather specific) informed speculation about a Duvall “contract for contract” swap with the Twins. I don’t see a lot of candidates who fit the criteria!
Wouldn’t a one-year FA signing replacement for Verdugo (hypothetically traded in 2 weeks) for ‘24 probably be a likely else and more expensive player than him?
He’s playing above average D in RF…. In FENWAY’s RF at that… and hitting over an .800 OPS. He’s a good F’in player that’s still young, loves it here and has taken to being a team leader!!!
This board continues to blow my mind with its attempts to overthink any scenario. Verdugo w should and will get something around 5/100 and deserves it…. Hopefully by the Sox.
He’s playing above average D in RF…. In FENWAY’s RF at that… and hitting over an .800 OPS. He’s a good F’in player that’s still young, loves it here and has taken to being a team leader!!!
This board continues to blow my mind with its attempts to overthink any scenario. Verdugo w should and will get something around 5/100 and deserves it…. Hopefully by the Sox.
You tried to trade him this off season when his value was at its lowest lol
He definitely is a lot worse against lefties this season than last time I looked, though.
Trading Verdugo seems more like an off season thing, but we shall see.
Hate? Not at all. Particularly if they're trading Verdugo for good value that makes the team better overall. That's smart GMing.
I don't think acquiring Joey Gallo for cheap in order to free up Verdugo for such a trade is prudent GMing though. I get the idea of trying to frankenstein coverage of a position by getting two strong platoon players, but you can only do that with so many positions. There are only so many bench spots to go around (and one is locked up because you have to have two catchers). I'm not seeing the wisdom of replacing a very solid player like Verdugo with a platoon approach that might get you 5% better production overall. Unless we're talking about being bowled over by an offer from a team that really really wants Verdugo. In which case, you worry about replacing him after, not before.
I'm mostly just joking with Chawson because he was putting Verdugo into trades all off season.
But yes, the Rays would probably trade Verdugo for a couple guys who are 3 years out & Boston would asplode if we tried it.
So, assuming you hold onto Verdugo through the end of the season (which I think is probably a good bet since the Sox may not be in the selling position that I thought that they would be), Do you trade him in the off-season, extend him, trade him at the '24 trading deadline, or let him walk?
While I'm thinking his value may never be higher, I'd try to extend him in the off-season for something reasonable. If that doesn't happen, find a deal.
I'm holding on to Verdugo through the end of this season regardless of the team's fortunes (buyers/sellers). Unless someone approaches Bloom with a Godfather-style offer (something he can't refuse), Dugie isn't on the block IMO. I don't anticipate that type of offer though.
Come the off-season, I'm not partial to any one option. Talk extension to see where it goes. Shop around to see what's available. Don't make it a binary thing (e.g. sign this team-friendly extension or we're trading you). I'm content to let the season play out with Verdugo on a one year deal if that's where it ends up.
Unless they think that Bear Claw can handle being a starter at least a few times through the rotation, I would like to see them pick up a starter somewhere. Barring a salary dump, I don't see that happening via trade of any of the Kike/Duvall/Arroyo troika.
I'd be good with trading Kike just so I never have to see him at SS again.
I'd be good with trading Kike just so I never have to see him at SS again.
I don't think Arroyo is really tradeable right now, for this team. He is just too good of a defensive 2B and the Sox don't really have anyone to step in and take that role (as long as he stays healthy).
The problem with moving Duvall/Kiké is... they just don't have any value. You might get a flier prospect for one/both of them, but that's about it. Now, flier prospects can work out, so I think it would be the right move (especially Duvall), but then you leave a hole when the next guy gets hurt. And neither of them are getting a "reliable" SP in return, which is the one big need for this team.
Bloom has a lot of options. I don't think he moves any of the top 5 prospects for a rental, and probably not even any of the top 10. If he can get someone with some term left, then maybe. I also wouldn't be all that surprised to see them do nothing at the deadline. The team is in a good position to compete this year, with some guys hopefully returning soon, and they are in what feels like a great position going forward. It's going to be an interesting deadline.
Cross-posting from the hallway mark thread:
To me, their chances completely revolve around starting pitching. As has been said, we can't presume what we'd get from Sale, Houck and Whitlock when/if they get back. We don't know whether Bello or Paxton will hit an innings wall. Depending on all or most of those to work in their favor is anything but a sure bet.
If they really want to go for this, they might have to trade something of real value to get a solid rotation piece.
It's a bit like last season and, while there are what seem to be favorable schedule factors helping them, that's all on paper at this point. I'm not as worried about the "last place" thing -- if they go for it, they go for it, where they are in the standings at this point doesn't matter. Although I wouldn't count on them continuing to dominate NY and Toronto the rest of the season.
All I don't want to see is a repeat of last season's half-assed trade deadline. Go all in, or don't.
To me, their chances completely revolve around starting pitching. As has been said, we can't presume what we'd get from Sale, Houck and Whitlock when/if they get back. We don't know whether Bello or Paxton will hit an innings wall. Depending on all or most of those to work in their favor is anything but a sure bet.
If they really want to go for this, they might have to trade something of real value to get a solid rotation piece.
It's a bit like last season and, while there are what seem to be favorable schedule factors helping them, that's all on paper at this point. I'm not as worried about the "last place" thing -- if they go for it, they go for it, where they are in the standings at this point doesn't matter. Although I wouldn't count on them continuing to dominate NY and Toronto the rest of the season.
All I don't want to see is a repeat of last season's half-assed trade deadline. Go all in, or don't.
The nice thing this year is that they are already under the tax threshold, so as long as they don't take on a completely useless player that vaults them over the cap, I think it will be okay.
I know that Kike has been a disaster at short, but he's always been pretty solid at 2B. Not necessarily advocating, but I do think it's an option.
It's not Verdugo hate at all... it's recognizing that he is one of the only expendable pieces of value that they have to get something of value back in return. Expendable in the sense that most or all of his value can be replaced more easily than a future pitching stud. Duvall would get you very little in return, same with Kike.
If we're buying for this season to try to make a push, trading our starting RF is not really the way, especially when we hope to get Sale/Houck/Whitlock back, & we're getting decent bulk work from Pivetta/Murphy/Walter.
We also have Chang back, Reyes is ready if/when they need him, & Story is apparently impressing people with his throwing already.
What we don't have coming is a guy who can replicate Verdugo's production, so giving that up to get a stop gap isn't really a thing that excites me.
If we're in full sell mode & someone really values him? Sure, but I don't see a world where trading Verdugo increases our chances of winning the World Series this year, & probably not next year.
They could if it makes sense long term, but if all these guys don't get back/stay good, chances are adding another pitcher is going to be a waste of assets.
Last deadline they picked up a useful catcher (McGuire) & 3 useful prospects (Valdez/Abreu/Rosier), while giving up literally nothing of long term value, while trying to fill in a couple gaps to increase their chances of playoffing (Hosmer/Pham).
If they do that again, I don't really see an issue. They also have about $6m to play with under the tax, so they can be a bit creative in a few directions that way, too.
I thoroughly disagree with the post about doing nothing, though. They need to start working toward their optimal 40-man next year when they'll have ~$80m to spend & already have too many players who need protecting.
I think you only give up actual assets to acquire a starter if he’s controlled behind this season.
On the other hand, we have a ton of people rule 5 eligible this winter and we can't protect them all. Why not use some to try to do something this season?
Sure, but I doubt the Sox are all that unique in that kind of situation, and question whether fringe 40-man decision types are worth much in a trade, but certainly worth considering.
I did notice when I was busy coveting Montgomery and DeJong from STL that they don't have a crunch coming up.
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Here are the rule 5 guys for this winter (SP ranking, level). Bolded ones I think we're likely to lose if they go unprotected.
Rivaldo Avila
Angel Bastardo (40, A)
Brock Bell
Bradley Blalock (37, A+)
Royman Blanco
Brainer Bonaci (12, A+)
Zach Bryant
Maceo Campbell
Allan Castro (24, A+)
Brendan Cellucci
Felix Cepeda
Juan Chacon
Casey Cobb
Nathanael Cruz
Luis De La Rosa
Nick Decker
Kelvin Diaz
Jordan DiValerio
Shane Drohan (6, AAA)
Juan Daniel Encarnación
Alex Erro
Albert Feliz
Ryan Fernandez (26, AAA)
Ryan Fitzgerald (60, AAA)
Grant Gambrell (55, AA)
Jhostynxon Garcia
Wikelman Gonzalez (9, A+)
Bryan Gonzalez
Devlin Granberg
Alexis Hernandez
Graham Hoffman
Gabriel Jackson
Lyonell James
Gilberto Jimenez
Christian Koss (43, AAA)
Robert Kwiatkowski
Chih-Jung Liu (52, AA)
Eduardo Lopez
Matthew Lugo (35, AA)
Elih Marrero
Yorberto Mejicano
Ryan Miller
Andrés Núñez
Yusniel Padron-Artiles
Eddinson Paulino (17, A+)
Luis Perales (7, A)
Railin Perez
Jose Ramirez (57, A)
Oscar Rangel
Jorge Rodriguez
Ronald Rosario
Cesar Ruiz
Johnfrank Salazar
Stephen Scott (38, AAA)
Cody Scroggins
Reidis Sena
Chase Shugart
Karson Simas
Nick Sogard (59, AAA)
Dylan Spacke
Joey Stock
Luis Talavera
Nate Tellier
Michael Valera
Brian Van Belle
Diego Viloria
Jeremy Wu-Yelland
Ryan Zeferjahn (54, AA)
Rivaldo Avila
Angel Bastardo (40, A)
Brock Bell
Bradley Blalock (37, A+)
Royman Blanco
Brainer Bonaci (12, A+)
Zach Bryant
Maceo Campbell
Allan Castro (24, A+)
Brendan Cellucci
Felix Cepeda
Juan Chacon
Casey Cobb
Nathanael Cruz
Luis De La Rosa
Nick Decker
Kelvin Diaz
Jordan DiValerio
Shane Drohan (6, AAA)
Juan Daniel Encarnación
Alex Erro
Albert Feliz
Ryan Fernandez (26, AAA)
Ryan Fitzgerald (60, AAA)
Grant Gambrell (55, AA)
Jhostynxon Garcia
Wikelman Gonzalez (9, A+)
Bryan Gonzalez
Devlin Granberg
Alexis Hernandez
Graham Hoffman
Gabriel Jackson
Lyonell James
Gilberto Jimenez
Christian Koss (43, AAA)
Robert Kwiatkowski
Chih-Jung Liu (52, AA)
Eduardo Lopez
Matthew Lugo (35, AA)
Elih Marrero
Yorberto Mejicano
Ryan Miller
Andrés Núñez
Yusniel Padron-Artiles
Eddinson Paulino (17, A+)
Luis Perales (7, A)
Railin Perez
Jose Ramirez (57, A)
Oscar Rangel
Jorge Rodriguez
Ronald Rosario
Cesar Ruiz
Johnfrank Salazar
Stephen Scott (38, AAA)
Cody Scroggins
Reidis Sena
Chase Shugart
Karson Simas
Nick Sogard (59, AAA)
Dylan Spacke
Joey Stock
Luis Talavera
Nate Tellier
Michael Valera
Brian Van Belle
Diego Viloria
Jeremy Wu-Yelland
Ryan Zeferjahn (54, AA)
This is the answer imo. They should be hunting for multi year controlled starters. It won’t come cheap, but they’ll have to address is in the off season either way.
You have nine guys bolded, there were only 15 players taken in the entire rule 5 draft last December.
The part of the rule 5 that people seem to overlook a lot is that once you add someone to your own 40 man, they can't be removed without being put through waivers. So in many cases, you are actually 'protecting' your non-top prospects better by leaving them exposed, because then at least they have to stick on another team's MLB roster all season.
I think it’s possible to put a good package together to get Montgomery without having to really hurt the farm system. He’s a rental and could be resigned easily. IMO they need just a better version of Pivetta and then add Yamamoto in the off-season:
Sale
Bello
Montgomery
Yamamoto
Houck
Crawford
Whitlock
To some extent that's because teams go ahead & protect their good players who become eligible.
There are some guys there like Fitzpatrick & Sogard I definitely wouldn't bother protecting, though, & guys like BVB who I probably would depending on how the rest of his year goes at Worcester.
To be clear, I don't think all of them will be taken, just those are the guys that seem most likely to have someone grab them. Of the three guys taken last year, none was in the top 20 on the SP list at the time.
In no way do I expect them to protect Sogard and Fitzgerald, but what about the young top 20 guys? Seems like a real risk to leave a Bonaci or Paulino dangling out there for a crap team like the As to take for free. On the flip side, you have AAA guys like Scott and Fernandez with lower ceilings, but who are probably close enough to contribute meaningfully somewhere. Those two buckets are big enough that I think you actively shop them now, cause we can't protect them all.
In no way do I expect them to protect Sogard and Fitzgerald, but what about the young top 20 guys? Seems like a real risk to leave a Bonaci or Paulino dangling out there for a crap team like the As to take for free. On the flip side, you have AAA guys like Scott and Fernandez with lower ceilings, but who are probably close enough to contribute meaningfully somewhere. Those two buckets are big enough that I think you actively shop them now, cause we can't protect them all.
I don't really understand the Paulino hype, but it definitely exists & if he plays great the rest of the season he may need to be protected, but so far he's been a pretty mid high-A player.
Bonaci has been great & probably needs to be protected.
Scott I think should be. Having 3 catchers on the 40 makes sense & he's been pretty good. Not having 3 on the 40 leads to the Caleb Hamilton/Aquaman debacles.
Fernandez has seemed like a potential high leverage bullpen arm until like a week ago when he has started absolutely sucking. If he gets it back together he should be on the Red Sox opening day roster next year, so he should be on the 40.
I have my doubts that Sears will be available unless someone is willing to seriously overpay. Like you say, this is only his second MLB season and based on his service time, he's at least two years from being too expensive even for the skinflint Fisher. Seems like the kind of guy they'd prefer to hold on to for the time being.
I love the catching in our system... especially Johanfran Garcia but he's a ways away in the FCL.
But guys like Hickey & Brannon have been raking & they have a few other intriguing guys (Musett/Erro/Mejicano/Rosario).
Agree there's not much ready to contribute, yet, but it seems like they finally have a pipeline going.
Not sure if this is the right place, or if it's even being discussed elsewhere, but what do we make of Chris Martin? He's been outstanding, obviously, but he's 1.5 hits and 1.7 ks per nine below his average. Walk rate is even a tick below his career norms. That's a weird situation, although a reliever's sample size can skew things a number of ways. There has to be some regression, right? Especially with the strikeouts being down. He'd be a huge get for a club. The second year of control is a added value.
The recent stretch, coupled with a favorable open to the start of the unofficial second half makes me want to play this thing out earnestly, mostly so August, September and October means relevant baseball for us. But in my eyes Martin is ahead of Jansen in trade value, right? Or is being a proven closer paramount at the deadline? Paxton, Martin, Jansen and Turner have to have the most trade value of the guys that would most likely be traded. Verdugo too if you didn't want him on an extension.
Edit: Martin has allowed 35 hits in his last 53.33 innings, going back to his Dodgers days. That's amazing.
The recent stretch, coupled with a favorable open to the start of the unofficial second half makes me want to play this thing out earnestly, mostly so August, September and October means relevant baseball for us. But in my eyes Martin is ahead of Jansen in trade value, right? Or is being a proven closer paramount at the deadline? Paxton, Martin, Jansen and Turner have to have the most trade value of the guys that would most likely be traded. Verdugo too if you didn't want him on an extension.
Edit: Martin has allowed 35 hits in his last 53.33 innings, going back to his Dodgers days. That's amazing.
Idk if you're doing a teardown & someone offers a lot, sure? He may be due for some minor regression, but he's just been really really good in a way that's mostly to be expected & should be pretty repeatable. His average exit velocity is a ridiculous 83.6 mph.
& they are very short on high leverage relief arms right now. I would 100% trade Kenley before Martin if there's interest, but only if they are tanking or have another path to acquiring a high leverage relief arm or two.
Schreiber coming back is exciting, though.
FWIW, Baseball Trade Values has Martin as worth slightly more than Jansen (+1.4 vs -1.2). I imagine it's due to the lesser contract as Martin is owed roughly half of what Jansen is.
I wouldn't expect the Sox to trade either of them before the off-season unless they absolutely fall apart over the next 2.5 weeks.
I don’t think it’s really worth it trading either; they are both needed for next year and based on precedent, the return probably wouldn’t be all that compelling. Trade Jansen or Martin, and then you just have to sign a similar player in the off-season, right? So what’s the point. Relief pitching seems like one of the teams biggest needs now and going forward.
My only thing with Jansen is I think there's a chance he implodes at some point prior to the end of next season, so if they could get value & find a way to add other high leverage arms, it could be a net positive.
Kind of like how they flipped Vazquez & acquired McGuire last deadline by getting good values on separate deals.
That’s possible. But assuming they will want to sign a closer for next year, they will need to likely take on risk with a similar type of signing. I think there’s a lot of value in having Jansen and Martin on one year deals next year, even though with their age and mileage, either or both could end up petering out. To replace either of those guys in free agency will likely require multiple year commitments, right?
This is interesting, and I agree and disagree with you on different points. I agree that trading Verdugo this month is probably a goofy clubhouse move. But I disagree that it’s especially difficult to replicate his production, or that it would necessarily decrease our chances at a World Series.
A big selling point for Verdugo when we acquired him was that, unlike Benintendi, he could hit lefties. That hasn't been the case.
vs. LHP, '21: .228/.269/.286 | .246 wOBA in 201 PAs | 47 wRC+
vs. LHP, '22: .266/.329/.364 | .308 wOBA in 170 PAs | 94 wRC+
vs. LHP, '23: .243/.333/.320 | .298 wOBA in 117 PAs | 83 wRC+
Even if you isolate those last two seasons, his .257/.331/.346 vs. LHP line is not good — it ranks 41st of 50 eligible corner outfielders with at least 100 PAs against lefties.
However, we currently employ baseball's best corner outfielder against LHP in Rob Refsnyder, who's hit .358/.441/.526 against them over '22-23.
Currently, Verdugo plays full-time, while Jarren Duran has been in a platoon. But what if that were reversed? Now that Duran is established, we probably want to see if he can be a full-time player over the next half decade. I think he has the plate discipline (now) to hold his own, and the speed to beat out some soft contact dribblers.
If we were to swap that platoon, we'd replace Verdugo's plate appearances v. LHP with Refsnyder's, which is a big improvement. If we wanted to replicate Verdugo's production in that role, we'd have to find someone comparable to his .342 wOBA against RHP from '22-23. (Or, if you prefer, his .361 wOBA against them in '23).
Corner outfielders who can put up a 115 wRC+ against RHP don't necessarily grow on trees, especially those who can play Fenway's right field. But they aren't particularly hard to find either. Gallo is one. We may already have another in Wilyer Abreu. We've also got Ceddanne Rafaela, who I believe should have to play his way out of a full-time starting role rather than into one, as soon as 2024.
So, I don't know. To me, the whole issue begins there. Which four players (besides Refsnyder) make up the Red Sox primary OF+DH in 2024?
A) Yoshida, Duran, Verdugo, Turner
B) Yoshida, Rafaela, Verdugo, Turner
C) Yoshida, Duran, Rafaela, Turner
D) Duran, Rafaela, Verdugo, Yoshida
E) Other
I know what I prefer.
