If we're buying for this season to try to make a push, trading our starting RF is not really the way, especially when we hope to get Sale/Houck/Whitlock back, & we're getting decent bulk work from Pivetta/Murphy/Walter.
What we don't have coming is a guy who can replicate Verdugo's production, so giving that up to get a stop gap isn't really a thing that excites me.
If we're in full sell mode & someone really values him? Sure, but I don't see a world where trading Verdugo increases our chances of winning the World Series this year, & probably not next year either.
This is interesting, and I agree and disagree with you on different points. I agree that trading Verdugo this month is probably a goofy clubhouse move. But I disagree that it’s especially difficult to replicate his production, or that it would necessarily decrease our chances at a World Series.
A big selling point for Verdugo when we acquired him was that, unlike Benintendi, he could hit lefties. That hasn't been the case.
vs. LHP, '21: .228/.269/.286 | .246 wOBA in 201 PAs | 47 wRC+
vs. LHP, '22: .266/.329/.364 | .308 wOBA in 170 PAs | 94 wRC+
vs. LHP, '23: .243/.333/.320 | .298 wOBA in 117 PAs | 83 wRC+
Even if you isolate those last two seasons, his .257/.331/.346 vs. LHP line is not good — it ranks 41st of 50 eligible corner outfielders with at least 100 PAs against lefties.
However, we currently employ
baseball's best corner outfielder against LHP in Rob Refsnyder, who's hit .358/.441/.526 against them over '22-23.
Currently, Verdugo plays full-time, while Jarren Duran has been in a platoon. But what if that were reversed? Now that Duran is established, we probably want to see if he can be a full-time player over the next half decade. I think he has the plate discipline (now) to hold his own, and the speed to beat out some soft contact dribblers.
If we were to swap that platoon, we'd replace Verdugo's plate appearances v. LHP with Refsnyder's, which is a big improvement. If we wanted to replicate Verdugo's production in that role, we'd have to find someone comparable to his .342 wOBA against RHP from '22-23. (Or, if you prefer, his .361 wOBA against them in '23).
Corner outfielders who can put up a 115 wRC+ against RHP don't necessarily grow on trees, especially those who can play Fenway's right field. But they aren't particularly hard to find either. Gallo is one. We may already have another in Wilyer Abreu. We've also got Ceddanne Rafaela, who I believe should have to play his way out of a full-time starting role rather than into one, as soon as 2024.
So, I don't know. To me, the whole issue begins there.
Which four players (besides Refsnyder) make up the Red Sox primary OF+DH in 2024?
A) Yoshida, Duran, Verdugo, Turner
B) Yoshida, Rafaela, Verdugo, Turner
C) Yoshida, Duran, Rafaela, Turner
D) Duran, Rafaela, Verdugo, Yoshida
E) Other
I know what I prefer.