I've honestly never looked much at ERA- (or ERA+). I feel like I have enough mental grasp on what the league average ERA is that I mostly just look at ERA & xFIP for my own personal purposes is a fine start.Thanks @JM3 - do you follow ERA- as well? I happen to like it because 1) it's on Frangraphs which 2) makes it easier to find and 3) to me at least it's more intuitive because like ERA, FIP, xFIP, etc, etc, the lower the number the better (as opposed to ERA+ which is counter intuitive because of higher being better in regards to pitching).
To the best of my knowledge, the biggest reason I like ERA- is that it shows how much better the pitcher was than the league average as opposed to ERA+ because it tells how much better (or worse) the league was to the pitcher. A nuanced difference, but one that I think makes sense.
I've been hesitant to post that for pitching performance because Fangraphs is the only place I've seen it widely used (or easily found) and ERA+ seems to be cited more on here, so I've been trying to use that even though I personally like ERA- more. However, here is a discussion on ERA- vs ERA+ if anyone is interested (https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/9/14/3332194/era-plus-vs-era-minus)
Brag away on Martin, he's been excellent.
I also agree with your spoiled post about the human element of bullpens and pitchers, and that's why I was such a big fan of the Jansen signing - and really do believe that teams should spend on an actual proven closer. They have their own limitations as well, but I do think there is something to slotting a guy in at the back and allowing managers to mix and match with other pieces while having defined roles. Baseball players are certainly creatures of habit.
But I also do still firmly believe that in what I'll at least sum up as "not the back end" of the bullpen, teams are better served spending nothing on the bulk of the bullpen - at least if they're going to adhere to the Luxury Tax at all - if you're going to spend like the Yankees, go nuts.
Which means either using guys from your own system before they cost basically anything to try and find Papelbon and Bard (or Whitlock if one prefers) or just throwing a bunch of cheap stuff against the wall until you find what sticks. Or, put another way, I'm not the least bit surprised that the team has gotten more from Bernardino, Winckowski, Schrieber, Walter and Sheriff while getting nothing from Bleier (or Matt Barnes), Rodriguez and Brasier.
I'd rather use their money elsewhere.
*As an aside, it's why I really like the Hernandez deal and actually like the acquisition of Llovera. Get as many dirt cheap guys as possible to throw at the bulk of the bullpen and see what sticks. I'd MUCH rather them do this than give up even a top 30 prospect or spend $2m on "Kendall Graveman" or whatever. I think the resources can be better allocated elsewhere.
Then from there, if I'm curious, I start to look into how they got there & see if anything stands out, especially compared to previous years. Walk rates, strikeout rates, BABIPs, home run rates, etc.
& then from there I usually end up on the Savant page to see how much of whatever has happened can be attributed to their bars & how their pitches are looking, including compared to previous years. Pitch mix is a fun thing to look at because sometimes you can sort of picture paths to improvement through smarter pitch allocation.
But I'm definitely no expert & just do enough to feel like I have some clue what's going on.
I see you wisely removed Ort from that post while I was responding lol, as of course he is one of the many examples of free pitchers who have sucked. That list also includes Justin Garza, Tayler Scott, Zach Litell & Jake Faria. & Joe Jacques has been not great.
You need a certain # of high leverage arms to have an effective bullpen. How you acquire those guys can certainly vary, & it seems to be a pretty decent focus in the recent drafts, so I don't expect they will have to spend free agent dollars as much in the future, but you can't just throw anyone out there & expect it to work.
Joely has been really good since returning from injury (6 games, 7 scoreless innings, 6 hits, 0 walks, 9 strikeouts) & I expect he will be worth the $2m or whatever this year is going to cost them (& they also have a team option for next year if things went amazingly).
The Barnes contract was exactly what you say you like in terms of paying for a closer. He just became not good enough to be an actual closer (which has been my fear with Kenley). & then they had to get off him so they found a guy who fit all the control peripherals they like. Unfortunately I think they may have learned their lesson on aging control pitchers with Kluber & Bleier who were 1 step away from being cooked.
Bleier hasn't allowed a run in 3.2 innings since returning from the IL, but I'm not as optimistic about him as I am about Joely.
& Brasier has obviously turned into a shutdown reliever for the Dodgers smh.