I disagree. More people than not recognize Mac is a big part of the problem. It's simply a matter to which we think it's because of his deficiencies, or an escalation of them due to what's happened around him.
The Michael McCorkle "Mac" Jones Thread
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I don't think anyone is really blaming BoB for this season's struggles. I think it's more about BB bringing in Patricia last year and breaking Mac down into a puddle. And then BB the GM for putting this heaping pile of shit around him (and around BoB) this season.
If, by the end of this season (I know nobody can find one right now) folks can find me one offensive position that this team improved from 2022 (which sucked in it's own right) to 2023, I'll be shocked.
I just wish I hadn't predicted everything we're currently seeing in the draft threads in April. My God, this team is terrible and we all should have seen it coming from a mile away.
All he had to do to basically win a starting job was complete some passes to some open receivers and he couldn’t do it. There were plays there and he hasn’t been epically bashed around by a shitbox line either.
No way these guys are both that bad, think Bill must be in both their heads and neither feels confident to grip and rip even when the chance presents. All bad.
One thing I thought last year too... Mac sucks at these throws. Now Parker isn't that good either, but that was the one area Zappe seemed clearly better than Mac was the "jumpball on the sidelines" throw. Mac just so badly places his underthrows, that it's less a "only my guy can get it" and more "fuck it, whoever wins wins"
Zappe just stinks, he can't hit open guys because he can't figure out where they're going to be, very much feels like Zappe can't learn the playbook (rumored to be a problem that led to the cut in camp).
Really wish Corral had worked out, think he'd probably also be bad, but with some real upside. As it is you have no upside in the room, it's just "might be a bottom end starter" vs "might be a bottom end backup"
I thought Purdy was a pretty good college qb at ISU. He wasn't in a pro style offense and the offense really went through Breece Hall most of his career but he did what he was asked to do.
Matt Campbell got NFL interest (and interest from the Jets) before signing a big extension so NFL coaching almost was ISU coaching.
Campbell might be super awesome, but I think there might be a bit of a difference with regard to additional support/coaching/resources between Iowa St and Alabama, and those colleges and the NFL.
I just don't think a QB with Purdy's background develops that quickly with SF unless there was a ton of untapped potential already there. Potential that I'm not sure Jones has, regardless of where they each were drafted.
Precisely. One can't remotely compare football of the 80s and 90s to today. That power O of the 80s is playing a bunch of guys now who are 2X as strong and 3X as fast. The leaps forward in athleticism are almost unfathomable.
I'm going to beat the Josh-McDaniels-was-great drum til the head breaks. The guy is a phenomenal OC and Mac was blessed to have him his rookie year.
Great thought. Needless to say, a huge component of drafting is projecting where a guy will be in the future. I recall most everyone saying that Mac didn't have nearly the ceiling that the other 4 guys drafted in the 1st round had, but he had a more immediately usable floor. Should we be shocked that he hasn't progressed by leaps and bounds. Even with a far more competent coaching approach, and much better talent around him, Mac still would have a cap on just how good he can be. And a guy like Purdy (like a thousand other players) came into the league with a lot more headroom.
This stuff is hard. Purdy was Mr. Irrelevant for a reason. His arm was worse than Mac's coming out but he has been able to get it stronger than where Mac is now. He plays in a Shanny system which makes most QBs look good. Purdy also had some hero ball tendencies with a bad arm. A lot of people liked him and thought - really good backup. Sometimes guys exceed or don't meet expectations. I think Purdy is a top 10-15 QB right now. Mac was good at hitting his first read and getting it out quickly. He would have been awesome in SF... probably.
If you watch the latest Purdy breakdown by JT it is pretty impressive. Some of the throws I could complete because Shanny can scheme guys wide open but a lot of them require insane anticipation and accuracy which was really cool to see on the all-22. Purdy is often releasing the ball before his WR has even made his break just assumes the guy will get open based on leverage and coverage. I don't think Mac can make a lot of the plays Purdy is currently making, he struggles too much with reads and rarely throws with the kind of anticipation Purdy is.
Mac has become a poor mans Jimmy G. Doesn't have the good mechanics of Jimmy but does make the head scratching turn over worthy plays of Jimmy.
Mac has become a poor mans Jimmy G. Doesn't have the good mechanics of Jimmy but does make the head scratching turn over worthy plays of Jimmy.
The is it Mac, or is it the rest of the team, discussion has been a good one -- here now and over the past year or so.
But doesn't it feel academic now? It doesn't matter. I mean, it matters for Mac and his career, but I don't think it matters for the Patriots going forward. He's at a point where he cannot execute a basic pitch. He needs a sabbatical or a new locale.
Maybe he can play his way out of it. We'll see. I guess we have no choice. But I feel like last week we hit a critical mass. This question we've occupied ourselves with for so long has stopped mattering. Maybe for recriminations and post-facto analysis. Maybe it will start to matter again later this year, but it's hard to see how it even makes a difference right now who is right and who is wrong.
But doesn't it feel academic now? It doesn't matter. I mean, it matters for Mac and his career, but I don't think it matters for the Patriots going forward. He's at a point where he cannot execute a basic pitch. He needs a sabbatical or a new locale.
Maybe he can play his way out of it. We'll see. I guess we have no choice. But I feel like last week we hit a critical mass. This question we've occupied ourselves with for so long has stopped mattering. Maybe for recriminations and post-facto analysis. Maybe it will start to matter again later this year, but it's hard to see how it even makes a difference right now who is right and who is wrong.
Can you tell from film review how he's been able to increase his arm strength? This seems like it would be such a focus for any QB, and it's disappointing that Mac hasn't really shown any improvement but Purdy has.
If SF had kept their pick and picked Mac they could conceivably have added even more talent to the team, which would have been amazing for them.
There was a podcast that discussed it but my memory sucks. I think the guys who worked with Anthony Richardson might have also worked with Purdy. It was mechanics of his throw. I can't remember specifically though what it was. I can remember though that he added velocity and a significant amount at that. A lot of guys add arm strength though. It isn't uncommon. Mac's issue isn't that he can't rifle a throw in anymore (he has improved) but he isn't stepping into throws and throwing off his back foot. Mac's de facto velocity isn't an arm strength issue this year it is a mechanics issue. Unfortunately it's one that has been with him since college and has only gotten worse as the line crumbles around him.
Isn't improved QB arm strength usually from learning and applying better mechanics? At least for those that can?
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Yes. Most guys who add arm strength do so by finding something in their delivery or just work to keep a consistent base more often, but most QBs are routinely tweaking stuff and trying to add. Thing is pure arm talent, arm whip, the kind that you don't even have to be on the ground to produce is super hard to add and mostly god given, but you can do a ton of stuff to be more efficient in transferring power/generating torque, especially with the lower body. But as mentioned above, pretty much none of that matters if you're throwing fading away from the ball or struggling to keep a solid base.
Two summers ago Mac worked with noted QB coach Tom House. Phil Perry had a great interview with House on Perry’s NextPats podcast, reviewing all the biomechanical types of ways to generate torque and improved arm strength (maybe that’s the podcast you were thinking of, @SMU_Sox?). From what I remember House discussing, virtually none of it is visible with Jones anymore. Foot position, ball position, hip torque, shoulder rotation, etc. Jones has either forgotten or abandoned seemingly all of it as he’s all sped up and bailing out on many/most plays.
I read stuff like this and just boggles the mind.
"Belichick alienated Jones last season, a truth so obvious around the Patriots’ building that Kraft became aware and had to take the temperature of the situation. It rattled Jones’ confidence last season, among the other issues with the offense, and it’s reasonable to wonder how much it’s hindered his play this season, questioning whether any given mistake could shorten his leash or cut it entirely. "
https://theathletic.com/4950228/2023/10/11/new-england-patriots-bill-belichick-robert-kraft/?source=emp_shared_article&redirected=1
There is just no way a young, middle of the road (at best) player should be given this much leash or power. He has to earn everything. I am still of the belief this this way of treating Jones (babying, coddling, etc) is not the right one.
"Belichick alienated Jones last season, a truth so obvious around the Patriots’ building that Kraft became aware and had to take the temperature of the situation. It rattled Jones’ confidence last season, among the other issues with the offense, and it’s reasonable to wonder how much it’s hindered his play this season, questioning whether any given mistake could shorten his leash or cut it entirely. "
https://theathletic.com/4950228/2023/10/11/new-england-patriots-bill-belichick-robert-kraft/?source=emp_shared_article&redirected=1
There is just no way a young, middle of the road (at best) player should be given this much leash or power. He has to earn everything. I am still of the belief this this way of treating Jones (babying, coddling, etc) is not the right one.
That's the clearest sign that the king has been wounded. True or not, it's weird that this got out.
Maybe but it also feels like we get these sorts of snippets of discord from time to time, especially when the team is struggling and especially when a high profile player isn't fitting well in New England. Its pretty clear that Jones isn't a fit in New England, at least at present.
Edit: IMO, that quote got out because Jones' camp wanted it out. Its as simple as that.
What's weird is that Howe did not use the "according to team sources, Belichick aliented Jones...". Sounds like Howe is making his own observation based entirely on the Patricia fiasco. And I don't get how Kraft "taking the temperature" of the situation is babying.
Last year, Jones threw tantrums left and right directed at the world and what appeared to be his coaches. Letting him get away with that and not treating him like everything needed to be earned = babying.
Wasn't there also a rumor that Mac was ignoring Pats coaches and talking to his Alabama folks instead?
If Mac is difficult coach when he faces adversity, he's not long for this league. This isn't Alabama, this is the NFL and he needs to improve. If he feels that he had success at Alabama and thus will be fine in the NFL doing the same things, his career will be brief and ugly. Well, uglier than it already is.
If Mac is difficult coach when he faces adversity, he's not long for this league. This isn't Alabama, this is the NFL and he needs to improve. If he feels that he had success at Alabama and thus will be fine in the NFL doing the same things, his career will be brief and ugly. Well, uglier than it already is.
Russillo has been talking about a phenomenon surrounding first round QBs for a couple of years now, and it seems relevant to Mac's situation. Basically what Goff and Mayfield are doing this season is pretty unprecedented. When first round QBs switch teams, they do not go onto successful careers. You can go down the list - Jameis, Paxton Lynch, Bortles, Darnold, Rosen, Trubitsky, Wentz, Mariota, Manziel, Bridgewater, etc. - all switched teams/situations and were just as bad as they were in their former situation. They did not all of a sudden blossom once they changed scenery.
That info is interesting to me because maybe if a player doesn't show anything in those first 3-4 years - and that could be why Goff/Mayfield, players who popped for a season, are different - they're simply broken, or weren't that good in the first place. Because of that, I'm pretty confident that not only will Mac continue to be shitty on the Patriots, he's basically guaranteed to be shitty on any other team who picks him up. Barring a miraculous turnaround this year, being a backup for the rest of his career is like a high-end outcome for him.
That info is interesting to me because maybe if a player doesn't show anything in those first 3-4 years - and that could be why Goff/Mayfield, players who popped for a season, are different - they're simply broken, or weren't that good in the first place. Because of that, I'm pretty confident that not only will Mac continue to be shitty on the Patriots, he's basically guaranteed to be shitty on any other team who picks him up. Barring a miraculous turnaround this year, being a backup for the rest of his career is like a high-end outcome for him.
To be fair to Goff and Mayfield, too, both had success with their original teams, too. Goff made a Super Bowl. Mayfield was one play away from beating the Chiefs in the playoffs.(an uncalled helmet to helmet that cost the Browns a TD but the NFL doesn't call penalties against the Chiefs. Sometimes they even give them extra plays)
Those other guys basically didn't do anything. It is true that guys don't usually become awesome if they have previous stunk.
Mac's future isn't promising. He's slow, he has a weak arm, and it seems like he's not the best leader. He can't rely on athleticism. He's also weirdly Greyson Allen with the cheap shots. It is also fair to say the Patriots are a true dumpster fire on offense, at every level. It would be quite an exercise to see how a guy like Goff or Geno would be on the Patriots right now.
Yeah, I'm just saying the historical precedent is pretty clear. You can go down the list: http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/qb
Using the most generous definition of "Player bad at stop A, good at stop B" (so not including a player like Matt Stafford) and there are just a few names: Goff, Mayfield, Tannehill (like I said, generous), and Alex Smith. That's out of all of the first round QBs drafted in the last 25 years.
It might not even be Mac's fault, he may just be a victim of circumstance, but it would be an outlier event for him to go onto any kind of success post-Patriots.
Anyone on the QB School Patreon? JT O'Sullivan just dropped a 1 hour long breakdown of Mac's performance against the Saints, so if there were some interesting nuggets anyone out there could share about what he saw, it'd be great (yes, I'll probably just pay five bucks and see for myself eventually).
This was reported.
it was also reported that before Saban named Mac starter at Alabama, he talked to him multiple times about how his attitude was terrible and that a QB couldn't let everything change his mood the way that Mac let it because it effected the rest of the team. According to Saban it got so bad that he actually had a camera trained solely on Mac for multiple practices, so Jones could see what he looked like. Apparently Jones was shocked and vowed to change.....
Which he did at Alabama but apparently has fallen back into it in Foxboro
Sounds like a guy who cannot handle adversity in an emotionally mature way.
You cannot win with guys like that.
I recall that in Mac's first training camp a lot of beat writers talked about how he'd get very animated and frustrated with mistakes and then he seemed to tone it down in his second year. I think it's hard to strike that balance between caring and being super competitive and wanting desperately to execute everything perfectly, but also having the ability to move on to next play and not past mistakes affect you.
This is really fucking funny. Loved Jimmy talking about Ibiza - I’m struggling?
I found this to be interesting. Basically a sack probability over expected model for QBs. The thread has his rational for how the % is derived.
View: https://twitter.com/FF_TravisM/status/1711871005843439983
View: https://twitter.com/FF_TravisM/status/1711871005843439983
But isnt this a bit to Mac's discredit? Given the amount of insane pressure he's been under so far I feel like some of the absolutely devastating turnovers this season could've been avoided by taking a sack?
Oh absolutely. It speaks loudly that Mac has a penchant for avoiding sacks and then turning the ball over instead of throwing it away or running and sliding.
Avoiding sacks is only part of the play so taking the entire play into account, it means Mac has done terribly AFTER avoiding a sack.
Avoiding sacks is only part of the play so taking the entire play into account, it means Mac has done terribly AFTER avoiding a sack.
One thing it can't really tell you it seems is, whether a guy didn't take a sack because....
1. He avoided the rush
2. He threw the ball
THen obviously on each of those comes the question.....
1. Did he avoid the rush and do something good, something bad, or something neutral
2. Was the throw a good, bad or terrible throw.
I think for purposes of that study, it is simply weighing what QBs expected sack % should be given pressure %, allowed pressure %, drop back rates, and sack rate irrespective of what the QB did after that. Given what we know about the reports of Mac feeling rushed, speeding through progressions, not seeing the entire field, and the results thereafter, I think this tells us something positive about him. Jones is very good at avoiding sacks.
Not a Mac defense, just found this interesting.
Not a Mac defense, just found this interesting.
is this aggregated or per play? does he explain how he made the model? I'm extremely skeptical.
I think he's making some bad decisions due to be afraid of taking a sack and not necessarily after avoiding a sack. The happy feet, the throwing falling away for no reason, the bailing muddled pockets when there was some room to operate, the speeding up of reads... all of that is being done to avoid sacks and maybe I'd trade some sacks for more willingness to operate in bad pockets, go through progressions and maintain a solid base. If he were playing well and had that ranking, I'd be encouraged, but I'm seeing a lot of bad process that explains that number.
Not really, he says some of what is in it but not the full thing. Honestly the more I see of it the less I think it's anything at all. He hand waves the idea that a QB had any responsibility for pressure which generally makes it useless overall probably.
Though even if it did actually measure what he thinks it seems like he is saying that avoiding sacks is always valuable, which it definitely isn't at all.
In terms of Mac... It probably told us what we already knew... He's been getting pressures a lot but for better or worse avoiding sacks via throwing it quickly. But not really a skill per se, many QBs could avoid more sacks if they sacrificed trying to make plays down the field
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I can't see the thread, sorry not trying to be lazy.
I don't think this approach will measure what he claims it's measuring, based on the description of the method here. another example of why football is resistant to analytics.
Well, this seems to be obvious given the results. And then, if Mac takes more sacks, we would be on him for that instead of trying to avoid the sack to buy some time and create a play with a pass catcher.
I definitely do not think we felt Mac was good at avoiding the initial pressure to create an extra 1-2 seconds. The author of this doesn't hand wave anything. He simply is saying Mac, by this measure, is decent at avoiding sacks regardless if Mac is responsible for the initial pressure. And truthfully, the entire list looks pretty close to what we see on the field. I didn't expect Mac to be one of the best at this, that's for sure. He may well call out the wrong blocking schemes and it is likely part of Mac's fault but the blocking itself is not, but we know that. Also, he draws no conclusions about whether avoiding all sacks is valuable. As far as your last sentence, we know by the bottom of the list that that isn't true. Dan Jones and Deshawn Watson are at the bottom. They both run quite a bit but are poor at avoiding sacks.
No? Expected sack % given pressures, pressure %, drop back rates, etc pretty much tells us some good things about QBs who are better than average at avoiding sacks seems valuable.
Anyway, not defending Mac at all. I think he is terrible.
there are so many confounding factors and possible selection effects that I don't think it's saying much unless you've really dived into what that data looks like and how those other factors might influence the model.
that's not even getting to the attribution issue, where the guy is assuming the model is mostly saying something about the QB.
It is almost like-
Last year: Mac is showing too much emotion!
This year: Mac isn't showing enough emotion!
one example of a possibly large confounding factor: sacks tend to be more likely than hurries on play action passes which intuitively makes sense. there's a large variation among teams in terms of play action frequency. so this model might just be telling us which teams call a lot of playaction.
not saying that's the case, just giving a flavor of the kind of things that I think could move a model like this in a big way you'd want to account for if your goal is to isolate the QB.
not saying that's the case, just giving a flavor of the kind of things that I think could move a model like this in a big way you'd want to account for if your goal is to isolate the QB.
Etc covers a lot of possibilities.
In the thread someone asks him about QBs who hold the ball creating pressure, that's the part he handwaves.
And no... Evading sacks is not by itself good. Especially because he's not REALLY showing that he's calculating actual sack avoidance, just differential between pressure and sacks, which is doesn't necessarily mean much because not all pressure is as likely to become a sack (early vs late, in pocket or out, etc.)