Thank you. Its very subtle so no worries if you haven't sensed that this forum is a touch down on Mac Jones. While your response almost certainly won't change any minds it gives us some upside to dream on while watching balls sail over Kendrick Bourne or seeing them land behind a check down target all while Jones is only trying to stay upright for a hair over 2.3 seconds (the last mile to 2.4 being the hardest).
Haha yeah, I think Patriots fans have good reason to be down not only on Mac, but the team as a whole at this point, unfortunately for you all. So many glaring issues. Mac has made a bunch of bad decisions this year, and doesn't seem to be the long-term answer, but it definitely seems like he has no help around him that's for sure!
If Mac's touch downs weren't so rare we'd all feel a lot better about him.
Good point. We are actually a touch down on his ability to generate touchdowns.
From the accounts of my friends who knew him, he seems like a profoundly weird dude.
In fairness…
My NFL team is Tennessee, so I by extension would likely be diagnosed as a low grade masochist.
Mixed effects is linear so not sure what you mean by referring to logistic regression?To this question, this particular model wasn't a logistic regression build. It was MLR that was cross-checked via logarithmic to see which best fit the distribution. Tbh it's not really a finished product either. This model was a curiosity-based byproduct of something else I was building for CFB/NFL Prospect analysis. I may continue to attempt to improve it using other methods, but that day is not today.
To your previous question, if it were just testing for team sack prediction then QB teammates would all test the same, and they don't. Why they don't can be attributed to a few things, one being they often have vastly different pressure percentages and blocking success in front of them even when they're on the same team. In recent years it has been proven that QBs actually own a significant portion of their pressure and can have a significant effect on the blocking grades in front of them due to style of play. When you adjust for those differences you begin to see how well QBs both deal with pressure and even perhaps bring it more upon themselves.
So no, in this case it isn't like your shortstop example. Is it perfect, and solving for every bit of sack attribution of the individual QB? Nah. But it does at least paint a significant portion of that picture given what we know. I'm sure either I, or someone else, will improve upon this measure in the future. And I know personally that multiple NFL teams build their own kind of metrics like this to help with personnel decision-making (and they probably do it better than me).
ressure rate varies substantially between DL's and LB's. For DL's its 25% ish and for LB's its 33%. The rate at which QBs are blitzed again varies quite a bit among the QBs, and is not something they are directly controlling.
Absolutely. Hell Brian Fucking Hoyer was the better quarterback today.
Yes, in a heartbeat. We've had enough. And if he shows anything maybe it buys Josh another year in LV.
Yeah I don't see it. If you are contending and have an injury or something that might make sense last year but with his struggles this year he's a huge gamble to be competent and learn your offense. If you are rebuilding and want to take a chance on him for the future you would probably just wait until the offseason unless you can get him for a very low pick.
Probably some yes. Josh Dobbs and a 7th got a 5th, Trey Lance brought a 4th. Mac Jones looks terrible right now, but he has way more NFL success than either.
If BB could get a 2nd, 4th and 6th for Mac he should do it yesterday.
Carolina just drafted a QB #1, also from Alabama. I can't see that happening. Saints are 3-3 and Carr isn't great, but he has to be pretty much what they expected and they're .5 game out of first place in that division. They ain't gonna give Mac a whirl.
The Raiders wouldn't touch Mac with a 50 foot pole. Aiden or Hoyer are fine, compared to Mac.
I don't see it either. Whatever success he had was basically in his first year and he's gone downhill since, I see nothing that screams he just needs a change of scenery to be even decent. He stinks, there's no fixing that somewhere else.
You're most likely right of course. I just know some coaches always think that *they* can fix what ails people and Josh had some success with Mac. It's all very unlikely, just list it as more likely than those other teams that were listed.
I don't understand what world some people are living in.
You can try to fix a guy with great speed and athleticism and a solid arm. It usually fails but people think they can do it.
To be fair, those three wins were against the murderer's row of Colt McCoy, Teddy Bridgewater/Skylar Thompson and Zach Wilson.
I don't think a Mac trade will happen, but Sam Darnold is the counter point. His 3 years with the Jets were worse than what Mac has put together in New England and there was still a team out there that was still willing to trade significant draft capital for him, I think it was a 2nd 4th and 6th. NFL teams are dumb and most are starving for QB's. He's still young, has the first round draft pick pedigree, and on a rookie contract. Someone will talk themselves into thinking they can work with him and fix him. It almost always happens with young quaterbacks.
Sam Darnold has raw skills.
Much easier to sell Sam Darnold as a toolsy guy let down by the Jets' incompetence than to spin the potential of squeezing more juice out of "high floor, low ceiling" Mac Jones than Bill Belichick.
Does Cleveland know they aren't making any noise? They're 3-2, just beat the Niners, and have one of the best defenses in the league. People outside may not believe in them, but if they think they can win that division, who knows?
When you've got additional examples like Geno Smith lighting up the league, it at least seems plausible.
This is crazy for so many reasons, but the main one is why would you go for a Mac Jones when PJ Walker can be just as ineffective but it costs you nothing? At least PJ can move in the pocket, actually. So he's better than Mac.
I don't understand the question. I specifically said the Browns wouldn't be interested in a guy like Mac. I completely disagree that they are a contender, but others may feel differently.
I guess they could win the division, but their 2 losses were already within the division (to the Steelers and a shitbeating from the Ravens) and one of their wins was in a week 1 to a Bengals team that had Joe Burrow playing on one leg.
