Offseason rumors
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Not sure if this is a rumor per se, but there's been increasing buzz about trying to get Tatis from the Padre$ instead of Soto. It's a much cleaner fit & he's locked up long term so I like the concept better, if he's actually available & the price isn't insane.
View: https://twitter.com/HebHammer94/status/1720108771156840828
View: https://twitter.com/HebHammer94/status/1720108771156840828
Although the PED suspension is of course a red flag, Tatis to me represents the perfect acquisition this offseason: he addresses the Red Sox need for "star power," he addresses the need for better defense (he's an incredible right fielder and could probably win a Gold Glove in center field if given the chance), and he addresses the need for shifting the offensive core to include more right-handed hitters. Also, if you look at the structure of his contract, it's likely to age well if he can stay relatively healthy.
There doesn't seem to be any indication that San Diego is open to trading him, but it would be a bold move for both franchises.
Mayer (and all his potential, at league minimum price) for Tatis (and all his current ability, with the PED red flag, and the big contract). Who says no? (Keep in mind the financial situation for both teams)
Too many red flags in my opinion to pay the extraordinary cost. They'd (rightly so) probably want something like Mayer, Duran and Houck. For me, that is way too much for someone that a) doesn't pitch with b) his injury history and c) off the field concerns.
(To your point @BaseballJones - I think SD says "no" - if it were "just" Mayer, I'd at least consider it and could see the argument to do it, but I think I'd only move Mayer - or Anthony - for top of the rotation SP help).
Breslow talked about "fit" and in no way do I think Tatis is a good "fit" for basically any of the big East Coast markets.
Now if that were George Kirby or Julio Rodriguez - just to name a position player, I'd consider it giving up all that. Not Tatis though - ridiculously talented though he is.
Both?
Padres have the left side of the infield locked up for big bucks for years.
As BPMS notes, not a great fit for the Sox.
It would be pretty funny to trade them a shortstop as a way of bailing them out of debt after signing away ours and moving him off the position.
One would have to assume the red flags would be properly accounted for in any deal. Haven't really done a deep dive into the person, but skillset wise & age-wise, the fit is perfect.
If he's straightened out the maturity issues (PED use, motorcycle carelessness, etc.), then he's absolutely a perfect fit. A young, RH power bat with elite OF defense that is under contract? That's exactly what's needed.
He's just a guy who posts dumb fake trade ideas mostly. But I've heard the Tatis thing several places. My idea was to start a conversation about whether we want Tatis & at what level of cost.
I guess we could have a separate thread for like fake trades? But when do rumors actually ever turn out to be true before they're reports?
Rumors from connected sources should be fine. It's the "rumors" from random people with no obvious connections to the game that aren't really needed or productive. We might as well just post our own wishcasted thoughts and ideas as "rumors".
I think if you've heard the Tatis thing in several places, maybe share a source that actually might have some substance or reason to believe it.
Is Jim Bowden posting the Red Sox on a list of 7 different landing spots that make sense any more of a rumor? I wanted to talk about whether we liked the idea of a Tatis trade, so I posted the 1st Tweet I found on the subject along with the idea. It seemed to be leading to an interesting conversation which seems to have been derailed by the definition of "rumor".
I thought the conversation was the important part & not the labeling of where on the spectrum of rumors something is. People have been speculating Tatis & pretty much everyone on the Padres to pretty much everywhere since the news of the Padres being broke came out.
If a moderator would like to break this out into a "Fake trades" thread to keep the sanctity of the Rumors thread intact, they are more than welcome to.
So kind of like this?
I apologize heartily for all the damage my posting has done to the sanctity of the main board.
Fair enough.
So I guess the highest I'd go is something along the lines of Duran (or Rafaela should they prefer), they get to pick a top prospect that is NOT Mayer, Anthony, Teel (or Rafaela, assuming they take Duran instead) and literally any organizational pitching that isn't named "Bello, Perales or Gonzales."
I don't think there is any chance SD would do that, however. So combined with the fact that I think our pitching is so bad at the MLB level and so lacking in the high minors that you really cannot trade Casas, Mayer, Anthony or Teel unless it's for high level SPs, I just don't see any reasonable deal between the two.
Edit - not really a rumor, but since there was at least some discussion of his status, Mondessi officially filed for free agency. https://www.mlb.com/transactions/2023/11/02
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Because that's literally the post I made, except I attached a Tweet where a guy asked what people's best offers for Tatis were...which should not change the subject of the post I made at all. & it's tiresome nittery in the middle of what seemed like a good conversation on the subject.
Max is probably right through, & I could have just posted it in the '24 Outfield thread. But a fake trades thread also makes sense.
My hope is Breslow makes moves that are based on moving the Sox forward and steers clear of “star power” deals.
Of course I would like great players but winning the offseason/back pages isn’t a great plan.
Of course I would like great players but winning the offseason/back pages isn’t a great plan.
Tatis has some real drawbacks but he’s also not even 25 yet, is a star, and is under contract for more than a decade (for better or worse). He was a 5+ win player. The idea that the Sox will get him in return for the same spare parts people dangle in every hypothetical trade seems unrealistic. Why would the Pads even listen to anything less than Bello, Mayer, and Teel? (Granted- I think a blockbuster trade for Tatis given his PED history would be a tough sell for a new GM in Boston anyways…but…)
Seperate topic, and it’s hard to ask this without sounding insensitive, but how do folks think Duran’s recent struggles with depression / mental issues surrounding the game potentially impact his trade value?
Seperate topic, and it’s hard to ask this without sounding insensitive, but how do folks think Duran’s recent struggles with depression / mental issues surrounding the game potentially impact his trade value?
He did give a Moneyball-esque answer to the question about needing to have stars. To paraphrase Moneyball, if you win with nobodies, the nobodies become stars.
The off field concerns are why the Padres won't get a huge haul for Tatis. The 80 game suspension means that he's on his 4th chance. Maybe he's learned his lesson, but anyone acquiring him is gambling that baseball won't suspend him for a full season next time. That's a high wire not many teams are going to walk.
Because no one's giving them a top 30 MLB pitcher and two top 25 prospects for a player that deep in the PED protocol. You don't get 80 game suspensions out of the gate, you get them because you've already failed two or three drug tests (I forget whether it's the third offense or the fourth offense where the gloves come off). The PED policy is also based on progressive discipline, meaning that every suspension from here on out gets worse. So no one's giving them a Bello/Mayer/Teel type haul for FTJ. If they're moving him it's because they've decided he's not worth the trouble anymore.
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I don't think that's true. I think the first suspension for a PED violation is now 80 games. A second violation is a whole season, and a third is a lifetime ban.
He was like a 5-6 win player last year, but no one will give up much in a deal for him because he was suspended for PEDs before that? Not sure I understand that. Seems like we have a good idea what his post PED production looks like. Or is the idea that he’s of questionable character and likely to get popped again?
My only concern with Tatis is that shoulder thing that messed him up back in 2021. He dislocated his left shoulder twice in a matter of three months or so. That's the sort of thing that can be a recurring problem. If the labrum surgery he had at the end of 2022 truly fixed it, then as long as the prospect cost isn't prohibitive, I'd love to see the Sox pursue him.
I have my doubts he'll be available. I think we might be over estimating the financial concerns in San Diego. They have an owner worth billions. I don't think one bridge loan signals imminent bankruptcy or anything. I'll believe they're intent on shedding payroll when they actually make a move toward that end.
I have my doubts he'll be available. I think we might be over estimating the financial concerns in San Diego. They have an owner worth billions. I don't think one bridge loan signals imminent bankruptcy or anything. I'll believe they're intent on shedding payroll when they actually make a move toward that end.
Tatis is a troubled asset. Absolutely worth the price to be paid in $ but it’s a risk due to future games suspended if PED use.
That said… how different is that risk from a stud pitcher going down with arm troubles?
DeGrom grabbed a huge bag and everyone knew his high risk.
You also don't have to pay him if he gets suspended again, so the risk is mostly in giving up assets.
I think Tatis, Jr is a better fit than Soto...... Younger. better defender, right-handed bat, and has played outfield and middle infield which could come into play at some point.
I wouldn't want them to trade Anthony or Mayer for anything less than a sure thing. They've swung big trades for Pedro, Beckett, Sale -- not guys with much risk at all. You can let go of a prospect, even one so good and so close to the majors, for that level of certainty. But if there is real risk, why take it on, plus the $$ cost and the disruption, instead of just waiting for the prospect to arrive?
Not directed at you, but just thinking out loud. This was sort of the course that Bloom was following.
@PedroisGod is right here. It’s 80 games for the first offense.
https://registration.mlbpa.org/pdf/2022JointDrugProgram_English.pdf
Okay, I'll bite:
I know he injured his left shoulder but I wonder if Tatis can still play SS/2B. If memory serves he was pretty good at SS and a middle infield of Tatis/Story would be tantalizing, if he still has the ability.
I don't think the Sox have anything besides Anthony who might center the deal for the Padres, though (I agree they are probably not interested in Mayer). Would I do Anthony for him???? I probably lean yes, to be honest. He's such a perfect fit offensively.
I know he injured his left shoulder but I wonder if Tatis can still play SS/2B. If memory serves he was pretty good at SS and a middle infield of Tatis/Story would be tantalizing, if he still has the ability.
I don't think the Sox have anything besides Anthony who might center the deal for the Padres, though (I agree they are probably not interested in Mayer). Would I do Anthony for him???? I probably lean yes, to be honest. He's such a perfect fit offensively.
My memory might be of the previous policy (one of the realities of being old). But that doesn’t actually change the point, it just emphasizes why no one is going to give up a top MLB player plus multiple high end prospects for Tatís. Next time he’s gone for the season. For that risk you’re going to be lucky to get a top 50 (in MLB) prospect and a lottery ticket or two.
Tatis has never really been a strong defender at SS (career -9 DRS, -12.4 UZR in 2000+ innings). There's a reason he was the odd man out with the Padres crowded infield. I imagine he could move back to the infield if that's where he needed to be, but with the way he handled RF this season (+29 DRS, +13.8 UZR), I see no reason to treat him as anything but an outfielder going forward.
A lot of Tatis WAR is tied to defensive where we have one year of data in RF. His offensive numbers took a pretty big step back post PED suspension. I’d stay away.
Yeah, I don’t understand the aversion to “star power” deals and feel like this ownership/Chaim did a number on some fans’ psyches. The Red Sox are a franchise with a financial advantage over most of the league. Our current best player is an .850 OPS guy who plays shitty defense. We have a bunch of potential impact cheap talent coming in the next couple of years. We just watched the Rangers’ star win World Series MVP for the 2nd time in his career.
A guy like Tatis is exactly the kind of guy this franchise should be poking around on, in the event he becomes available. He was a 5.5 WAR guy despite having a poor (for him) offensive season. The PEDs are the only thing that would really scare me about him.
We all know there is a balancing act needed for payroll but the time is now for the Sox to find their next foundational talent. The current roster certainly doesn’t have enough.
OAA, which based on my understanding is superior to the older metrics like DRS & UZR because it factors in where the player is actually aligned, had Tatis as an awful player at SS his rookie year, but above average his 2nd & 3rd year. He's only played 1 inning of 2B, though, & he's almost certainly not as good at SS defense as Story. Agree his best usage is just to be a RF going forward.
A huge part of the value of Tatis's contract is going to be how much, if any, his power bounces back. In '21 he had .611 SLG, .328 ISO & 158 wRC+. In '23 he had a .449 SLG, .191 ISO & 113 wRC+.
Errors isn't a great stat, but Tatis Jr. had a ton of errors when playing SS also, 42 in 240 career games there. Just a .951 fielding percentage!!! Maybe some of that was because of his messed up shoulder before he got surgery, but I think if he comes back to the IF, 2B is a lot more likely than SS.
Here's a trade proposal......
To Red Sox
Logan Gilbert
Cal Raleigh
BTV Value: 108
To Mariners
Jarren Duran
Kutter Crawford
Nick Yorke
Miguel Bleis
BTV Value: 103.2
Red Sox get an ace-level pitcher and the catcher for the next 10 years while the Mariners get a boost to their OF, a major league starter, and two high level prospects.
To Red Sox
Logan Gilbert
Cal Raleigh
BTV Value: 108
To Mariners
Jarren Duran
Kutter Crawford
Nick Yorke
Miguel Bleis
BTV Value: 103.2
Red Sox get an ace-level pitcher and the catcher for the next 10 years while the Mariners get a boost to their OF, a major league starter, and two high level prospects.
While maybe an even trade from a value perspective, why would a Mariners team that presumably has postseason ambitions after finishing one game out of the WC last season want to trade us their 26 year old top of the rotation pitcher with 4 years of control and a pre-arb catcher who has put up 7 WAR over the past two seasons?
As someone whom has been pining for Gilbert for the better part of all season, I fully endorse this deal. I'd bet someone in a thread I posted something similar (right down to having Bleis and Yorke as the two pieces I'd try to move as the Red Sox).
There is also a short list of players (pretty much all SPs) that I'd also trade Mayer as the centerpiece for, and Gilbert is one of them.
Removing Raleigh from the equation, because I don't see Seattle trading him at all - and with Ray ostensibly coming back, I can at least see where Gilbert might be able to be pried loose - but you'd probably need to "overpay" in order to land Gilbert.
As such, if they said "Mayer and one of Houck or Crawford for Gilbert", it'd be tougher than pulling the trigger on a deal like that mentioned above - but it's also a trade I'd ultimately make.
*I'd be totally on board with something like Bleis, Yorke and Seattle gets to pick one of Duran, Crawford or Houck for Gilbert, fwiw.
It's silly season and the Tatis talk was spawned from a source that doesn't seem to be well connected. That said, if Breslow wants to be "bold" and if SD is feeling an economic pinch I say kick the tires. Tatis is just 24 years old, he's a RH hitting RF and he's under contract for 11 more seasons (age 35). If you bring him in to play RF perhaps Verdugo goes back to SD in the deal or is part of a package that helps to land a starting pitcher. The big hurdle is that the Sox might be looking to move some MI redundancies in a deal and the Padres seem to be a bit crowded there, so perhaps a 3rd team can be brought in to help facilitate a deal. I also mentioned in the MI thread that I'm curious if Jon Berti might be able to serve in a Brock Holt capacity on this team. He can fill in decently at just about any position and considering that RFsnyder is primarily just an OF these days Berti expands the bench a bit. While he may cost 2-3 M more his flexibilty may be worth it. Bringing both Tatis and Berti in also adds a bit more speed on the base paths.
Tatis' contract details are here.
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/san-diego-padres/fernando-tatis-jr-28791/#:~:text=Current Contract-,Fernando Tatis Jr.,a total salary of $11,714,285.
Tatis' contract details are here.
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/san-diego-padres/fernando-tatis-jr-28791/#:~:text=Current Contract-,Fernando Tatis Jr.,a total salary of $11,714,285.
Just to be clear, the Tatis stuff came from a bunch of people in various places speculating about Tatis & other Padres being potentially available because of their financial issues, & some people speculating that Tatis may be a good fit for the Red Sox (which on paper he would be as a young, slugging (at least in '21) RHH who is a very good RF, & I just quoted a guy who was asking people what they would trade for Tatis because that was what I happened to find on Twitter when I did a quick search for something to add to the post.
But I do agree with the poster who said they will believe the Padres are actually sellers when they see it.
If the Padres are really open to moving Tatis, it seems likely they’d want cost controlled pitching in return- especially with the prospect of losing Snell, Lugo, Wacha, and Hader.
Bello, Mayer, and Houck for Tatis is deemed nearly equal value by BTV. Not sure how that would make much sense for the Red Sox, though.
Bello, Mayer, and Houck for Tatis is deemed nearly equal value by BTV. Not sure how that would make much sense for the Red Sox, though.
Yeah, while the value might look OK (debatable) I don't see the Mariners trading out of the current window into a later one. They are in GFIN mode.
I agree, but a if third party with a pitcher that SD might have interested is willing to get involved things can happen. As I said above it's silly season, but there's no harm in kicking about things that MIGHT seem reasonable.
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