Yeah. If SD wanted Verdugo, why not just keep Soto?
There's only one year there. They're not getting the haul they gave up for Soto because there's going to be an epic bidding war when he reaches free agency and the acquiring team has no guarantees that they're getting anything past that. Think back to the underwhelming offers Boston got for Mookie when they offered him around in 2019. And Betts was a much better player than Soto.
We only have one season to go on, but it seems like owners are much more willing to spend under the current CBA than the previous one.
Yeah, more recently Judge got 9/360 (40AAV) so the bidding starts around there. And goes up.
Yeah, and that's the point, I know that he wants to play for Boston, but with the pending bidding war even the Red Sox have no guarantees that he's going to extend. I recall from the Betts rumors that the Padres wanted Boston to eat Myers's contract and that their top 5 prospects were off limits in any proposed trade. That's what the Pads are looking at if they deal Soto this offseason.
Because they're convinced that he's leaving and Verdugo is easy to extend and therefore deal when the time comes?
Soto will be a lot younger than Judge was when free agency arrives, so the bidding is definitely going up from there. You just don't get the opportunity to land hitters that good entering their prime years.
Well Judge was coming off a historic 10.6 bWAR season, which is more than the last two seasons of Soto. I think the length of Soto's next deal will certainly exceed Judge's but not the AAV.
Yes, but with Judge you were buying the contract year of a 31 year player (and one with an injury history at that). With Soto you're buying his prime. I'm guessing that we might see the first half billion dollar man.
Well as I said Soto will probably get more years at least, but his peak value is below that of Judge's so far. Maybe you get 12/480 -- same AAV?
I would imagine any chance of the Red Sox getting Soto would be contingent on the Padres interest in Durran.
I'm not sold on the idea, but IMO any move to bring Soto in should only happen AFTER the pitching needs are filled.
I'm in agreement here with Bergs. Adding Soto would require a lot of changes across the entire OF and would hamstring the corner infield defense issue too (with DH likely Raffy's future). The more I think about it, the more I really want to see the Sox aggressively pursue a trade for Trout who makes more sense than Soto. There's obviously issues with the No-Trade but I can't imagine he's loving being on team going nowhere but down even further. Deal Abreu, Verdugo, Yorke and pick up all of Trout's salary.
Trout would look great in right at Fenway. The Angels wouldn't need Verdugo on a one year deal and I think you'd want to keep him for the time when Trout is injured. Verdugo-Duran-Trout with Yoshida as DH can easily become Yoshida-Duran-Verdugo when he's on the IL. Abreu would be a nice 4th or 5th outfielder, but I'd guess he'd be attractive to the Angels as part of the deal.
I tend to agree, at least in a vacuum. But they'd have to be really freaking good starters. Sure, the Phillies defense is horrific, but they also have two "SP1" type pitchers (possibly aces) at the front of their rotation and "Brayan Bello" as their 3rd starter. The Sox have nobody that profiles particularly closely to Wheeler or Nola heading the rotation. I like Bello, but his value has been a lot more like Ranger Suarez than Nola or Wheeler - which isn't a knock on Bello at all, I like Suarez a good deal, but he (and Bello) I feel a lot more confident calling either a decent SP2 or an excellent SP3 and not at all similar to Wheeler or Nola.
It's not just a defensive fit. The lineup is already very LHH heavy (Devers, Yoshida, Casas, Verdugo, Duran). Adding Soto exacerbates that even if he makes the lineup better.
I think it'd be tough to find that match for Devers. There are only maybe 5-10 teams out there that could afford that contract, then you'd need to find one with a need at 3b (or 1b) that has a young top of the rotation SP they're willing to move. I don't know what team that would be. That's a tough needle to thread.
Soto and Bellinger are both lefties. The Red Sox need some right handed hitters, preferably with power. Trout fits the bill, if you can get him subsidized from the Angels. He's no doubt going to miss time, but his skills started at such a high level he'll be productive when he's on the field for quite a while.
I'm not so hung up on the lefty/righty thing. We spend a lot of time looking for right-handed power but fail to look at these guys actual splits. Soto has posted an OPS of .836 against lefties in his career, which is about as good as Devers' career OPS. Bellinger has a fairly neutral split too, 850 against righties versus 780 against lefties (and he does much better against lefty starters, it's really the relievers that kill him). It's not like we're looking at Verdugo, who's an 800/660 guy.
So two things about this though.
But if he's just the 81 game guy, you've got 37 million committed to a 3 win player. That's not going to get them over the hump, and worse, if the luxury tax matters at all to Henry, you can't really go spending that much elsewhere. And what if he's not the 165 OPS+ guy going forward? What if he's not only an injury risk, but a risk to become a worse hitter? K rate has gone through the roof the last couple of years, after all. What if he becomes a worse defender, as almost everyone does in their 30s?
That’s an interesting way to look at it. However I would not be shipping anything close to what’s been mentioned in a trade. What would the cal look like if the Sox take the whole contract, and trade someone like a Duran ? I am too lazy to go look at the baseball trade value website
Trout is a -89.5 on BTV. I hate BTV in so many ways. But yeah, trading actual assets to take on that entire underwater contract would be crazy.
How about trade Yoshida (+ prospects or Duran, depending on $$$ coming back with Trout) for Trout?
If the Angels trade Trout, they're clearly going into a deep rebuild. So why would they want Masa? Duran is a different story.
Good point. On the other hand, Angels Angeling?
