16 Days in January—Determining Trade Deadline Activity
- Thread starter RSN Diaspora
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Murray. VanVleet. SGA(more $$$ next season). maybe Haliburton
TL is a keeper since it appears he can stay healthy and he cleans up so many teammate mistakes
he'll get better, this is the first season he has played serious minutes
They need to combine picks/young players this summer to get their ballhandler
Trading TL for a PG just creates a huge hole at C and removes a key part of what has become a top 5 defense. If Brad decides this team needs a PG I think Jaylen is the guy who gets traded. TL is currently a guy who can guard all 5 positions, while providing elite rim protection. Given the emphasis Ime has put on defense this year, it would shock me if TL was traded. Trading him only makes sense if they think his knees won’t be able to continue playing at this level (in which case playing him so many minutes wouldn’t make sense, so unlikely they think this).
Any way the Celtics could get Christian Wood? He’s got one more year at $14 million. Would Romeo, Schroeder, (probably rerouted with a third team for a young player or two going to the Rockets), a first round pick, two second round picks, and a first round pick swap be enough? Is he worth two first round picks?
An tall athletic floor stretching power forward double double machine to pair with TL would be great. If the Celtics gave up two first round picks, that shuts the door on Beal as the third star with the Jays.
An tall athletic floor stretching power forward double double machine to pair with TL would be great. If the Celtics gave up two first round picks, that shuts the door on Beal as the third star with the Jays.
His contract limits the downside and raises the upside. Anyway, if teams are worried about the medical issues still, then Rob has to be viewed as untouchable.
I think Brunson is a much cleaner fit with the Jays & Smart is a cleaner fit with Luka.
What that looks like value-wise & resignability-wise is the more difficult question, but a situation where each player would be more valuable to the other team than their own team is a good place to start on trade configurations.
I think Wood makes great sense, but then again I think Beal is overrated and overpriced.
Smart for Brunson I'd be less excited about as I value Smart's defense highly.
The question on Smart is whether the last ~week is real. If it is, if he figured out how to play point and be a distributor, his value for the Celtics shoots way up. If it is a mirage and he is who he has been most of the season, that guy is tradeable. Did he really turn a corner while he was out with Covid, or have the Celtics been playing bad defensive teams the entire time since he got back? I'm inclined to believe this is an illusion and he'll get back to what he was against better competition.
I wouldn't do Brunson/Smart for a couple reasons:
1. I've been impressed with Smart's adjustments on offense, and his defense is still elite
2. Brunson got played right off the floor in the playoffs last year, I have concerns teams will target and destroy him in the playoffs going forward.
3. I'm not totally sold that Brunson is a real 3pt threat, I think the 40% last year is looking like a clear outlier and he's more of a low volume 35-36% guy, which is not enough better to offset the massive difference with Smart on D.
Edit- I'm coming around to the idea of just making some tweaks like Schroder out, maybe Enes too rolling the dice maybe on a reclamation, buyout or 2nd draft type, and seeing what this team does. Smart has started to show much more of a true PG game than I thought he had, and the idea of a team that doesn't have a guy in the top 6 (assuming Richardson over Schroder) that you can really exploit on D is interesting. They need shooting off the bench beyond Richardson, another PG who isn't Schroder, etc. but I'm finding the top 4 intriguing, and wonder if the best path is tweaks now, identify where we need help then using Al's expiring and picks in the summer (maybe one or more of Nesmith/PP/Romeo too) to chase upgrades.
1. I've been impressed with Smart's adjustments on offense, and his defense is still elite
2. Brunson got played right off the floor in the playoffs last year, I have concerns teams will target and destroy him in the playoffs going forward.
3. I'm not totally sold that Brunson is a real 3pt threat, I think the 40% last year is looking like a clear outlier and he's more of a low volume 35-36% guy, which is not enough better to offset the massive difference with Smart on D.
Edit- I'm coming around to the idea of just making some tweaks like Schroder out, maybe Enes too rolling the dice maybe on a reclamation, buyout or 2nd draft type, and seeing what this team does. Smart has started to show much more of a true PG game than I thought he had, and the idea of a team that doesn't have a guy in the top 6 (assuming Richardson over Schroder) that you can really exploit on D is interesting. They need shooting off the bench beyond Richardson, another PG who isn't Schroder, etc. but I'm finding the top 4 intriguing, and wonder if the best path is tweaks now, identify where we need help then using Al's expiring and picks in the summer (maybe one or more of Nesmith/PP/Romeo too) to chase upgrades.
They roll with Marcus at PG for the rest of the season and see if he continues this recent good offense/distribution
Brad/IME have to be careful on who they choose to be the "ballhandler of the future". In a "switch everything" defense the PG needs to be able to hold his own in the post for 10-second spells in the halfcourt. That's part of the reason why Schroder isn't as effective (Pritchard also) in IME's system. Along with recent-Marcus players like Murray, Haliburton, SGA would be perfect in this system BUT expensive. I'd steer away from a Smart for Brunson swap since Jalen would become a target for the better teams.
Agree with everything you say here. One quibble - the switch-everything scheme doesn't necessarily require a PG like Smart (after all, a lot of teams play this scheme but not many have anyone like Smart as PG) but teams that don't have a PG who can play up will need to double the post when the mismatch occurs, which opens up its own set of problems. A Marcus who focus on distribution and pace (instead of shooting) plus plays at an All-defense caliber is certainly great to have in Ime's scheme.
I thought the switch-everything scheme really did well last night. CHA has a lot of scorers so holding them to 107.6 ORtg (which is below their average) seems like a good result, particularly as BOS didn't really take care of the ball very well.
Agreed, the team has been getting better with IME's switchy D and it worked last night. Just believe it thrives with a lengthier PG, especially during the playoffs when the PACE slows and it becomes a halfcourt/chess match game. Especially for a team that wants to hang their hat on D. Spoelstra (any good coach) is adept at exposing shrimpy PGs.
Naturally, we want more offense from PG than Smart gives us. BUT the place to find halfcourt offense isn't from removing recent Marcus but reducing Horford's minutes with Grant /JRich's or acquisition of sWing. I know the 2BIGZzz adv +/- is great but believe that is being driven by the "other 4" and not Horford. It's interesting that IME de-emphasizes Horford at the 4 in the 2nd half/crunch time.
I'd avoid the smaller/shrimpy PGs, like Jalen Brunson, if you are going to trade real assets like Smart for him. Dallas isn't moving him for peanuts and he isn't signing on the cheap. Just keep Marcus and hope IME has convinced him to play like this going forward.
Watching the games I do get the impression that Marcus has definitely reined in "Bad Marcus", especially of late. His 3PT attempts per game have decreased from 6.6 to 5.9 to 4.7.
His 2PT FG% has increased from .415 (ugh), to .482 to .498.
It just seems like he has really taken the mantle of facilitator and floor general, and has stopped the "shooters gotta shoot" mentality that he sometimes exhibited before.
If the Celtics could reduce Horford's minutes with someone who could actually hit a 3 (although he has been better the last few games), I think that would help.
His 2PT FG% has increased from .415 (ugh), to .482 to .498.
It just seems like he has really taken the mantle of facilitator and floor general, and has stopped the "shooters gotta shoot" mentality that he sometimes exhibited before.
If the Celtics could reduce Horford's minutes with someone who could actually hit a 3 (although he has been better the last few games), I think that would help.
Which, in turn, would immediately make C a bigger position of need on this team. Ime would be running Horford out there 45 minutes a night.
I'm not in favor of dumping TL at all, unless something amazing is coming back. But tall guys are about the easiest things to find cheaply at the deadline or in the buyout market. Seems like every year there are centers updating their LinkedIn profiles after the dust clears.
Not sure how to quantify this but last night there was a play...... Hornet drives past his man on the perimeter....Rob sags off his guy and challenges at the rim, affecting but not blocking the shot. Shot goes awry and a rebound is up for grabs. Al has crashed the boards during this sequence.....essentially back filling for Rob as a rebounder. Horford is able to get the rebound by battling against the Original guy that Rob left.
It occurred to me that the 2 big (for all its negatives) allows Rob (and early season Al....remember that 2 blocks a game guy) to challenge shots while still allowing for a competent rebounding component.
Probably not earth shattering. 2 Bigger guys SHOULD make rebounding easier.
But it also seems to be helping the defense in that Rob (or Early Al) can challenge Shots with out having to worry about rebounding.
And before anyone says "well thats why Tatum and or Brown need to help on the boards" .....Boy are we lousy at rebounding at times. Yes Tatum gets his 8-10 and Jalen gets his 5-7 but they are generally not contested. Both of them (for the most part) get empty rebound numbers.
Maybe all this is obvious. But it was the one play last night that kinda crystalized it for me last night.
(That does not mean I would be opposed to a better 2nd big then Al......or that I think thats a bigger need then better passing at PG ....or any position really, OR that 2 Bigs is THE answer. Just that I might see why Ime is continuing to do it)
It occurred to me that the 2 big (for all its negatives) allows Rob (and early season Al....remember that 2 blocks a game guy) to challenge shots while still allowing for a competent rebounding component.
Probably not earth shattering. 2 Bigger guys SHOULD make rebounding easier.
But it also seems to be helping the defense in that Rob (or Early Al) can challenge Shots with out having to worry about rebounding.
And before anyone says "well thats why Tatum and or Brown need to help on the boards" .....Boy are we lousy at rebounding at times. Yes Tatum gets his 8-10 and Jalen gets his 5-7 but they are generally not contested. Both of them (for the most part) get empty rebound numbers.
Maybe all this is obvious. But it was the one play last night that kinda crystalized it for me last night.
(That does not mean I would be opposed to a better 2nd big then Al......or that I think thats a bigger need then better passing at PG ....or any position really, OR that 2 Bigs is THE answer. Just that I might see why Ime is continuing to do it)
Yeah it's a fair point that 2bigz (tm BH) makes defense and rebounding better. The issue is how much you're giving back on the other hand 2bigz that either won't shoot 3s or can't hit them enough.
JB and JT get their share of tough rebounds, but it's definitely a dropoff from Al and TL.
And granted that was a major problem with Early season Tatum. Is that mitigated by Current Tatum. Plus Jaylens scoring has seemed to take a slight step forward (while IMHO everything else is still decidedly mediocre to "good")
"What we give back" is easier to swallow when those 2 are scoring 60 a night on an acceptable %
"What we give back" is easier to swallow when those 2 are scoring 60 a night on an acceptable %
I am buying into the idea that the starting 5 (including Horford) should not be tinkered with some adjustment6s could be done on 6-9 on the depth chart:
Sorry, don't know how to embed this but the Celtics starting 5 has the 2nd best net rating of any 5 man combo in the NBA over 200 minutes played.
Sorry, don't know how to embed this but the Celtics starting 5 has the 2nd best net rating of any 5 man combo in the NBA over 200 minutes played.
I was that way too. Now I kind of enjoy the uncertainty of his shifts. He's a wild card, almost Smartian in his ability to add and also take away, shift to shift.
Sometimes he comes in and hits a few nice shots, gets some easy layups off the dribble and strips a guy. Other times, the opponent goes on a nice run off his matador defense and bricks. He's Jeckyl and Hyde.
We’ve been fortunate to be facing teams without their PG heathy or a team in a similar boat as us. The real issue with Smart as your PG, aside from other smaller reasons, is that he struggles getting to his spot with the ball against pressure and this plays up in the final 6 minutes. He had a critical turnover last night which preceded the Tatum foul and T.
He simply isn’t reliable as your guy with the ball in his hands when it matters. You really don’t want to be relying on Smart as your lead guard in the playoffs.
The Celtics have often not put Rob on the other team's big. Sometimes Al will do that, sometimes they will even have Grant there. I think they want Rob using his mobility and athleticism whenever possible, and matching him up against the other center makes that harder.
Turnovers are the issue with Smart at PG - although the one from last night loked more like an unforced error than a forced one.
Cleaning the glass breaks down player stats by position. Their characterization is not likely to be perfect, but probably is roughly OK. Here's what they have for Marcus this year:
The difference between PG Marcus and SG Marcus is striking. PG has above average efficiency as a shooter and an above average assist rate, but he is also a turnover machine - one of the literal worst in the league (3rd percentile). Even so, PG's point differential is suggestive of a 67 win team. SG is different - shooting efficiency is bad, ball security is bad, but the point differential is much worse - suggestive of a 47 win team.
Last year was different. Marcus was more efficient scorer as SG (average) than at PG (bad). But last year at PG he protected the ball better (league average). Maybe related to the coaching change?
Schroder has 96% of his minutes at PG and a point differential of just 1.6 (vs -18.0 at SG). Higher usage than Smart and comparable points per shot attempt. League average in turnovers (vs Smart's league bottom), but bad assist rate (22.7, 23rd percentile).
As a team, the Celtics with Smart at the point are above average at points per possession (72nd percentile), top of the league eFG (99th), above average offensive rebounding (60th), but they are bad at turnovers (18th percentile) and don't get to the line (6th). When he goes to SG it is almost exactly the opposite: bad at points per possession (32nd percentile), eFG (26th percentile), and OR (45th), but better at turnovers (59th) and getting to the line (76th).
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Are the C's not putting Rob on the other team's big, or is the other team constantly using that big in a PnR to get Rob (or Horford) out on a switch about 1 second into the shot clock? I think it's really hard for the numbers to account for who Rob is matching up against, when he literally gets switched onto 2-3-4 guys every trip down the floor anyway.
Th
They are often playing him off ball on the worst shooter. He spent a lot of time last night matched up with Martin so Rob could roam around and help more at the rim.
Yes, this is how Brad tried to use him too. He really is not a good low post defender against a physical big who can back him down under the basket. Marc Gasol and Valenciunus used to kill him on the low block. He’s one of the best in the league as a weak side defender where he can use his length and athleticism in space without being attached to a body.
Yeah, I don't think it's an actual possibility, I would just love to see it.
If Presti is asking for a 1st for Kenny Hustle I'm sure they'd be taking on a bad contract in return.
How about...
Jazz get under the luxury tax by trading Jingles' $13m expiring, Azubuike ($2.1m), Paschall ($1.8m) & Jazz '27 lotto protected 1st for Hustle ($2m).
Saves the Jazz $14.9m (currently $14.85m over tax line) & instead of paying $28m in tax, they'll actually receive a $10m payment or whatever.
Jazz also get a rotation wing to fill the Ingles void.
Thunder get to add another 1st & a Azubuike who isn't like good at basketball, but has a couple team options left & is another lotto ticket, & all they have to give up if is a JAG & they get a bit closer to the salary floor.
As JM3 mentioned, that would likely include taking a bad contract.
In terms of SG3 I think OKC only moves him in a deal for a franchise player at the draft. As much as any team in the league OKC has to value contract term. SGA is locked in there until summer of 2027, and Giddy is almost certainly there until 2029 or so. Trading for a Jalen Brown type makes no sense for them, as he is gone in 2024 (or possible forces trade even earlier). Presti is nuts if he trades for a similar level player with less term.
You misspelled Jayson.
Jaylen vs SGA are similar caliber players. Maybe a SF would fit better than a PG in OKC, although, really Brown is a terrible fit there. And the 3 fewer years of team control, makes him extraordinarily less valuable to OKC. Jaylen does not make OKC a legit playoff team the next two years, and then he is GONE
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I think you are mistaking Martin for Washington. First of all Martin only played 16 minutes as opposed to Washington's 42. Secondly, I went back and watched a few possessions from the start of 1Q and 3Q plus the end of 2Q and 4Q, and in each case TL began the possession matched up against Washington.
From what I saw at the start of the 1Q and 3Q, they had Horford matched up on Plumlee. I wouldn't be surprised if they had Al on Plumlee for most of the time Plumlee was on the court.
You are probably right that TL was matched with Washington most of the time. I do think he was matched with Martin at times as well but probably not as often.
Out here in the Twin Cities there is a lot of chatter of Marcus Smart to the Wolves
“The Timberwolves are definitely trying to trade for Marcus Smart” Unless the Wolves are willing to include Jaden McDaniels or a first round pick in addition to Malik Beasley, the deal most likely doesn’t get done.
“The Timberwolves are definitely trying to trade for Marcus Smart” Unless the Wolves are willing to include Jaden McDaniels or a first round pick in addition to Malik Beasley, the deal most likely doesn’t get done.
If Smart goes for Beasley as the big pieces, it's to solve a locker room problem. That's a sizeable downgrade.
If I was a Minnesota fan, I'd be pretty pissed to give up on Jaden McDaniels for Marcus Smart. Smart would likely help their team right now more than McDaniels, but I don't think he pushes them that far up in the West.
Yeah, I'm probably at the head of the "trade Marcus" movement but even I can't get remotely behind a hypothetical move like that unless something significant came along with Beasley.
It's just someone slapping together two rumors...
1. That the Celtics had interest in Beasley in a RIchardson trade.
2. That MIN desperately wants guard/wing defense and are interested in Smart.
Value-wise Beasley and McDaniels for Smart more or less fits both ways, imo.
Beasley is an impaired asset---as HRB has noted there are real personality/behavior questoins. He's a useful guy on the court, and fits better in Bos than with Minny's group. McDaniels is interesting for sure but not clear what the skillset projects to....is he a plus starter? Not today, and hasn't yet shown a bunch of the component skills (not a plus scorer, defender, shooter or passer) to make us really confident he gets there. The upside is real, but it's not certain. Smart, today, is a plus starter (albeit an imperfect one).
I wouldn't do that as Celts, but I get why each would---Celts need a talent upgrade and Minny needs defense, toughness, and guys who can win now to help keep KAT.
Beasley is an impaired asset---as HRB has noted there are real personality/behavior questoins. He's a useful guy on the court, and fits better in Bos than with Minny's group. McDaniels is interesting for sure but not clear what the skillset projects to....is he a plus starter? Not today, and hasn't yet shown a bunch of the component skills (not a plus scorer, defender, shooter or passer) to make us really confident he gets there. The upside is real, but it's not certain. Smart, today, is a plus starter (albeit an imperfect one).
I wouldn't do that as Celts, but I get why each would---Celts need a talent upgrade and Minny needs defense, toughness, and guys who can win now to help keep KAT.
I've heard that a few times in recent weeks and can certainly believe it. That team also needs a shakeup, I suspect---it's a win-now team which isn't winning and has new leadership to boot.
You'd think they would prefer to deal Gobert, and it's really not clear to me what the market is. He's great, but he's 29 with a massive contract and known playoff questions who you really need to have the rest of the roster fit around.
Hard to imagine a Mitchell deal in-season; also have to wonder if Jaylen Brown isn't the best fit for a swap anyone is going to be able to offer.
Smart is arguably the second most productive player for the Celtics right now across a variety of categories and is having one of if not his best season as a pro. As we have discussed here before, a return for Smart is hard to clock precisely because the player is fairly unique and has specific fits (e.g. rebuilders don't need what he brings to the table and ideally he is surrounded with scorers) but this package seems incredibly light.
I am of the view that, barring actual chemistry issues - which do come up from time to time but not in the way that the Gobert/Mitchell stuff does almost every few months - the bar for trading Smart is incredibly high. He does a lot of dirty work that nobody else can do, his defense alone positively impacts the Celtics and his distribution is better than some feared. He also seems comfortable morphing his roles when needed which also seems like a valuable attribute in building a team. Barring a package that nets the elusive third "star" or eliminates a chemistry issue (again, maybe this is real but either the Celtics are great at keeping it in house or some of the past noise was just a bunch of 20-something professionals working something out as happens) he should be considered foundational-adjacent.
I am of the view that, barring actual chemistry issues - which do come up from time to time but not in the way that the Gobert/Mitchell stuff does almost every few months - the bar for trading Smart is incredibly high. He does a lot of dirty work that nobody else can do, his defense alone positively impacts the Celtics and his distribution is better than some feared. He also seems comfortable morphing his roles when needed which also seems like a valuable attribute in building a team. Barring a package that nets the elusive third "star" or eliminates a chemistry issue (again, maybe this is real but either the Celtics are great at keeping it in house or some of the past noise was just a bunch of 20-something professionals working something out as happens) he should be considered foundational-adjacent.
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It would be a gutsy move by both teams. Mitchell is signed for more money per year, but with more years of control (assuming he doesn't ask out - not saying he wouldn't, but that's a risk in today's NBA). I'm a bit leery of a 6' 1" shooting guard in Boston's defensive system. I don't know a lot about Mitchell, but I assume Brown fits better with the team defensively (and yes I know Brown often seems to get confused from a team defense perspective).
I don't really know why Boston takes the risk, unless they think Brown and Tatum don't mix well together - a viewpoint that I don't share. I see Utah taking the risk if they really think Mitchell and Gobert can't exist together.
As is true for all potential stars on the block, Michell for Simmons?
I think you'd do it as Celtics for three reasons:
1. Mitchell and Tatum give you two elite scorers and shot-creators, the scarest of all NBA skills
2. Mitchell solves your 'primary ballhandler' need
3. Mitchell and Tatum fit better on-court, and from what's been reported have a good relationship (though I think Tatum/Brown also hvae a good relationship)
You'd harm the defense some, though it is much easier to get a 3 and D wing (which could just be Richardson) than Mitchell's skillset. So, defensively you do have the switch issue you allude to but personally I'd rather figure that out than figure out how I add shot creation on offense---because many solutions to that create a defensive hole too.
Doubt Utah would do that deal, as an aside.
1. Mitchell and Tatum give you two elite scorers and shot-creators, the scarest of all NBA skills
2. Mitchell solves your 'primary ballhandler' need
3. Mitchell and Tatum fit better on-court, and from what's been reported have a good relationship (though I think Tatum/Brown also hvae a good relationship)
You'd harm the defense some, though it is much easier to get a 3 and D wing (which could just be Richardson) than Mitchell's skillset. So, defensively you do have the switch issue you allude to but personally I'd rather figure that out than figure out how I add shot creation on offense---because many solutions to that create a defensive hole too.
Doubt Utah would do that deal, as an aside.
You have Marcus to do all the stuff that Mitchell doesn't. And in Boston Mitchell can guard the 1 spot, so it would work. Mitchell for Simmons doesn't really work for Utah, you can't win a title (anymore) by winning a bunch of 78-73 games.
I mean the Thunder already attempted to trade SGA, Giddey, and draft picks for Cade Cunningham, so they don't seem to agree with your evaluation. On a practical level SGA isn't very good in his new role of secondary ballhandler and primary scorer. He compiles points, but is an inefficient scorer and his shooting woes have been pretty pronounced. Jaylen is a better and more efficient scorer and would benefit from Giddey's shot creation, just as Tatum would from SGA's.
Also the Thunder don't really need to worry about Brown walking as I suspect that he's not the sort to go play third banana someplace else for less money. Because in OKC he'd have his own team and a much bigger raise. While you sometimes find guys willing to go ringchasing in their 20s, more tend to stay right where they're comfortable. And, believe it or not, a lot of NBA guys seem to like playing in the laid back atmosphere of OKC.