With about 2 weeks left in the college basketball season, I figured now is a good time to start discussing the field for this years tournament. At the top there doesn't appear to be as much drama as last year, when almost 8 teams were in the running for number 1 seeds. This year the battle for the 1 seeds is much more clear cut; Syracuse, Florida, Wichita St. & Arizona appear to be the front runners with Duke and Kansas remaining as possibilities. Their respective resumes are outlined below:
Syracuse: 25-1 RPI: 7, SOS: 90, 8-0 vs RPI Top 50, 12-0 vs. RPI Top 100, KenPom: 9, Sagarin: 11
Florida: 24-2 RPI: 3, SOS: 38, 5-2 vs RPI Top 50, 11-2 vs. RPI Top 100, KenPom: 4, Sagarin: 5
Wichita St: 27-0 RPI: 8, SOS: 111, 2-0 vs RPI Top 50, 5-0 vs. RPI Top 100, KenPom: 10, Sagarin: 17
Arizona: 24-2 RPI: 4, SOS: 13, 8-2 vs RPI Top 50, 14-2 vs. RPI Top 100, KenPom: 1, Sagarin: 1
Kansas: 20-6, RPI: 1, SOS: 1, 10-6 vs. RPI Top 50, 14-6 vs. RPI Top 100, KenPom: 11, Sagarin: 8
Duke: 21-6, RPI: 10, SOS: 10, 4-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 8-5 vs. RPI Top 100, KenPom: 5, Sagarin: 4
If you look at them solely on their resumes Wichita St. doesn't belong, however if they run the table or even lose 1 and then win their conference tournament I don't see them not getting a 1 seed. The path for Kansas and Duke includes a regular season and conference tournament titles, for both teams accomplishing those would boost their resumes enough it would be hard to leave them off the 1 line.
As of 2/21 my S-Curve for the top 16 would be as follows:
1 seeds - 1: Arizona 2: Syracuse 3: Florida 4: Wichita St.
2 seeds - 5: Kansas 6: Duke 7: Creighton 8:Michigan St.
3 seeds - 9: Villanova 10: San Diego St. 11: Wisconsin 12: Iowa St.
4 seeds - 13: Michigan 14:Virginia 15: Cincinnati 16: UCLA
Leaving the Regions to set up:
1: Arizona, 2: Michigan St. 3: Villanovia, 4: UCLA
1: Syracuse, 2: Creignton 3: San Diego St. 4: Cincinnati
1: Florida, 2: Duke, 3: Wisconsin, 4: Virginia
1: Wichita St., 2: Kansas, 3: Iowa St., 4:Michigan
I also figured I would include the tournament resumes for a few of the popular teams in this forum not already covered:
UNC 19-7, RPI: 21, SOS: 11, 6-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 10-4 vs. RPI Top 100, KenPom: 22, Sagarin: 22 - Projections: Lunardi - 7 seed, Palm - 6 seed
UMass 20-5 RPI: 16, SOS: 55, 5-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 12-4 vs. RPI Top 100, KenPom: 43, Sagarin: 37 - Projections: Lunardi - 8 seed, Palm - 7 seed
Michigan 18-7 RPI: 19, SOS: 6, 8-5 vs. RPI Top 50, 9-5 vs. RPI Top 100, KenPom: 18, Sagarin: 12 - Projections: Lunardi - 4 seed, Palm - 4 seed
UConn 21-5 RPI: 27, SOS: 78, 3-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 7-4 vs. RPI Top 100, KenPom: 20, Sagarin: 20 - Projections: Lunardi - 6 seed, Palm - 5 seed
Providence 17-10 RPI: 60, SOS: 57, 1-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 6-9 vs. RPI Top 100, KenPom: 56, Sagarin: 57 - Projections: Lunardi - 11 seed (Play-in game), Palm - 12 seed (Play-in game)
Syracuse: 25-1 RPI: 7, SOS: 90, 8-0 vs RPI Top 50, 12-0 vs. RPI Top 100, KenPom: 9, Sagarin: 11
Florida: 24-2 RPI: 3, SOS: 38, 5-2 vs RPI Top 50, 11-2 vs. RPI Top 100, KenPom: 4, Sagarin: 5
Wichita St: 27-0 RPI: 8, SOS: 111, 2-0 vs RPI Top 50, 5-0 vs. RPI Top 100, KenPom: 10, Sagarin: 17
Arizona: 24-2 RPI: 4, SOS: 13, 8-2 vs RPI Top 50, 14-2 vs. RPI Top 100, KenPom: 1, Sagarin: 1
Kansas: 20-6, RPI: 1, SOS: 1, 10-6 vs. RPI Top 50, 14-6 vs. RPI Top 100, KenPom: 11, Sagarin: 8
Duke: 21-6, RPI: 10, SOS: 10, 4-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 8-5 vs. RPI Top 100, KenPom: 5, Sagarin: 4
If you look at them solely on their resumes Wichita St. doesn't belong, however if they run the table or even lose 1 and then win their conference tournament I don't see them not getting a 1 seed. The path for Kansas and Duke includes a regular season and conference tournament titles, for both teams accomplishing those would boost their resumes enough it would be hard to leave them off the 1 line.
As of 2/21 my S-Curve for the top 16 would be as follows:
1 seeds - 1: Arizona 2: Syracuse 3: Florida 4: Wichita St.
2 seeds - 5: Kansas 6: Duke 7: Creighton 8:Michigan St.
3 seeds - 9: Villanova 10: San Diego St. 11: Wisconsin 12: Iowa St.
4 seeds - 13: Michigan 14:Virginia 15: Cincinnati 16: UCLA
Leaving the Regions to set up:
1: Arizona, 2: Michigan St. 3: Villanovia, 4: UCLA
1: Syracuse, 2: Creignton 3: San Diego St. 4: Cincinnati
1: Florida, 2: Duke, 3: Wisconsin, 4: Virginia
1: Wichita St., 2: Kansas, 3: Iowa St., 4:Michigan
I also figured I would include the tournament resumes for a few of the popular teams in this forum not already covered:
UNC 19-7, RPI: 21, SOS: 11, 6-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 10-4 vs. RPI Top 100, KenPom: 22, Sagarin: 22 - Projections: Lunardi - 7 seed, Palm - 6 seed
UMass 20-5 RPI: 16, SOS: 55, 5-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 12-4 vs. RPI Top 100, KenPom: 43, Sagarin: 37 - Projections: Lunardi - 8 seed, Palm - 7 seed
Michigan 18-7 RPI: 19, SOS: 6, 8-5 vs. RPI Top 50, 9-5 vs. RPI Top 100, KenPom: 18, Sagarin: 12 - Projections: Lunardi - 4 seed, Palm - 4 seed
UConn 21-5 RPI: 27, SOS: 78, 3-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 7-4 vs. RPI Top 100, KenPom: 20, Sagarin: 20 - Projections: Lunardi - 6 seed, Palm - 5 seed
Providence 17-10 RPI: 60, SOS: 57, 1-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 6-9 vs. RPI Top 100, KenPom: 56, Sagarin: 57 - Projections: Lunardi - 11 seed (Play-in game), Palm - 12 seed (Play-in game)