2014 AFC East Race

[pdaj]

After week 1, the Bills, Dolphins, and Jets are 3-0, and the Patriots are 0-1. Despite New England's opening day debacle, I still expect them to finish the year around 12-4 atop the division. So where does that leave everyone else? Will the division prove to be significantly tougher than first anticipated? Or will we laugh at this post 8-10 weeks from now?
 
Discuss.

 

[Stitch01]

Pats are still favorites, if not the locks they were in past years.  Dolphins are the only other potentially good team, but if they hold to form they'll lose in some inexplicable way to the Bills or Raiders later this month.  Just one game, but Tannehill wasn't good yesterday, they're kind of capped if he doesn't take a step forward.

 

[soxfan121]

The Bills won but that's still a bad football team. The Jets won but that's still a roster with lots of holes. The Dolphins won and looked like a playoff team. 
 
So, worried about the Dolphins for sure, as they looked like a physical, relentless team with enough talent and few enough holes to be serious contenders. 

 

[ivanvamp]

The Dolphins might win 10 games this year.  The Patriots will win the division and probably still make the AFCCG.  I'm not worried.
 
Yet.

 

[Stitch01]

Ellerbie to IR.

 

[smastroyin]

I guess you can have a team where everything else comes together and the QB just doesn't sink it, but it seems rare for those teams to do anything.  This is going to severely limit all three non-Patriots teams.  Maybe Tannehill is better than Manuel and Geno but he still looks like a guy who will get out the way in a win, not a guy who can put an otherwise struggling team on his back and make things happen.  The Dolphins can't expect Moreno and Miller to look as good as they did yesterday, and even with how good they looked combined with the fact that he stayed largely upright, Tannehill's accuracy was still not great.  The play of Tannehill is largely going to make the difference between the Dolphins winning 7 games and winning 11.  Likewise, if Manuel and Geno somehow step up to be competent, those teams jump up to the 8-10 win range.  But I'm not sure which of these things will actually come to be.
 
The Patriots still look like a 12 win team.

 

[redsahx]

 

The Bills won but that's still a bad football team. The Jets won but that's still a roster with lots of holes. The Dolphins won and looked like a playoff team. 
 
So, worried about the Dolphins for sure, as they looked like a physical, relentless team with enough talent and few enough holes to be serious contenders.

 
If the Dolphins offensive line is merely average this year, that's still a noticeable upgrade over anything Tannehill has had thus far in his career, and certainly addresses perhaps their biggest achilles heel the previous two seasons. While I'm not sold on him as an elite QB, he is certainly solid enough to get them to the playoffs with a good defense and some time to throw the football.

The Jets beat the Raiders at home, so I'm not sure what to make of that.

Buffalo is intriguing. If Watkins is healthy, then outside of the QB position I'd say they have as much offensive talent as anyone else in the division, and their defense is certainly solid. Watkins, Mike Williams, Spiller, Fred Jackson, Scott Chandler and Robert Woods beats what the Jets and Dolphins have for weapons in my book. The big test for them of course will be actually winning games in November and December. They've shown flashes in the first 5 games or so of the season a couple of times recently, (like in 08 and 11) only to be fully exposed by early November. That was a HUGE win for their psyche yesterday, considering how down people were on them at the end of the preseason. If that game had been in Buffalo, I wouldn't have put much stock in it, as their crowd can carry them early in the year. A road win in Chicago though is a bit different.

I am definitely looking forward to the Miami-Buffalo matchup this week.

 

[soxfan121]

Good points, redsahx. I reply with: The Raiders suck. And EJ Manuel looks like he regressed or got no better - and without a QB, Buffalo's going nowhere.

 

[redsahx]

 

I reply with: The Raiders suck.

I strongly don't disagree.
 

And EJ Manuel looks like he regressed or got no better - and without a QB, Buffalo's going nowhere.

Can't argue here either. I guess my only point is that at least there are some pieces to work with offensively, as opposed to what Mark Sanchez and Geno Smith were given the previous two years in New York as an example. So conceivably if Manual is a lost cause, someone could come off the street and give that team an offensive pulse. That doesn't really count as going somewhere of course, but they might be better than merely "bad".

 

[pdaj]

So, is the division "wide open" NOW?

 

[sodenj5]

So, is the division "wide open" NOW?

No. It never has been. It never will be.

 

[pdaj]

As bad as the Patriots have looked, Buffalo, Miami, and New York all have major issues. I would actually be intrigued by the Bills as a "darkhorse" candidate had they decided to work through Manuel's deficiencies. I don't think the Kyle Orton project is going to work out very well, but we'll see. And maybe Philbin/Tanny prove that their more than an average combo in the next few weeks, but there's no strong indication that'll be the case.

 

[pdaj]

Buffalo was smart to bench Manuel. His deficiencies (ie., lack of talent) aren't fixable. The fact that he was a 1st round pick still amazes me to this day. The Jets are obviously a disaster and aren't a serious contender for the division at all. The only real contender here is the Dolphins but obviously Tannethrill has a lot to prove. The Patriots aren't going to walk away with the division this year but I'd be pretty surprised if they don't win it given that the other starting QBs are Tannehill, Geno, and Orton.

 
I'm not a Manuel fan at all, but I'd bet good money that he's the starter again in 2-3 weeks.

 

[Stitch01]

The fact the Pats are still the favorite here tells you what a pile of dogshit the rest of the franchises in this division are.

 

[Stitch01]

Pats still -250 to win the division on 5dimes.
 
Bills at 8-1 looks pretty tasty.

 

[mauf]

Pats still -250 to win the division on 5dimes.
 
Bills at 8-1 looks pretty tasty.

 
I like those odds on Buffalo.The Bills have a top-10 defense. DVOA doesn't like the Bills' rushing offense, but their YPC is slightly better than the league average even though the defense knows they are going to run more than most teams. They don't need to get all that much from the QB position to go 9-7, and if I were making book right now, I'd say there's a 50/50 chance that no one in the division wins 10 games.

 

[gryoung]

The fact the Pats are still the favorite here tells you what a pile of dogshit the rest of the franchises in this division are.

 
8-8 could be the winner.

 

[dynomite]

I'm hardly a sky is falling kind of guy, but look at that stretch from late October to early December:
vs. CHI
vs. DEN
@ IND
vs. DET
@ GB
@ SD

I don't think it's a lost season yet, and I think this team is closer to the team that best up the Vikings than the team that got annihilated by the Chiefs. But that's a pretty intimidating stretch of games in my opinion.

 

[dwainw]

 
I like those odds on Buffalo.The Bills have a top-10 defense. DVOA doesn't like the Bills' rushing offense, but their YPC is slightly better than the league average even though the defense knows they are going to run more than most teams. They don't need to get all that much from the QB position to go 9-7, and if I were making book right now, I'd say there's a 50/50 chance that no one in the division wins 10 games.

 

 
8-8 could be the winner.

...would seem to answer this:
 

So, is the division "wide open" NOW?

Just sayin....

 

[sodenj5]

 
...would seem to answer this:
 
Just sayin....

No one will admit to the division being an open race because:

A. It means the Patriots are a middle of the pack team.

B. It means that clears cleaver was right.

 

[dcmissle]

Until the Pats emerge from the Raiders/Chiefs combo meal, I will acknowledge the AFC East is open, particularly given that the "easy" part of the schedule is in the rear view mirror.

 

[Stitch01]

On the one hand we have Clear Cleaver admittedly trolling Pats fans and sodenj fired about about Miami intensity and heart based on nondescript plays.
 
On the other hand, we have markets where actual dollars that change hands saying the Pats are 2-1 favorites.
 
Guess people can choose whatever evidence they wish.

 

[dwainw]

I'm on record believing that the Pats are still the team to beat, based primarily on the experience and indisputable superiority of their coaching staff and Tom Brady.  But the "evidence" I'm choosing while believing the division is far from a lock for New England (ie: an open competition) includes what I've observed and the empirical results of one quarter of the season now on the books.  More so than years past or in other divisions this year, it's pretty apparent that unforeseen events (injuries, rookie surprises, midseason pickups, etc.) will play the biggest role in which of the 4 teams rise to the top (well, at least 3).   And that's because the gap has closed between the talent level of Buffalo and Miami vs. that of New England.  In reading a lot of the other threads in this forum, I think a lot of people would concur with that.  And I'm no expert in betting odds, but it seems to me bettors are creatures of habit as much as anyone else, and New England's history speaks for itself.  Doesn't necessarily mean the outcomes of the games on the field aren't more wide open than they've been in a while

Anyway, whatever silly controversy is generated by declaring the division is "wide open" really depends on what your division of "wide" and "open" are.

 

[Stitch01]

Yeah, usually the Pats are 9-1 favorites or so by this time of year, so definitely closer this year for sure.  I don't think the chances are split 25/25/25/25 or 33/33/33 or anything else like that.  Pats still win this division more that half the time.

 

[dwainw]

Huge comeback win on the road by the Bills today.  Orton was surprisingly effective, thanks in large part to S.Watkins being ridiculous.  Looks like Buffalo's not going away.

 

[Dan to Theo to Ben]

Huge comeback win on the road by the Bills today.  Orton was surprisingly effective, thanks in large part to S.Watkins being ridiculous.  Looks like Buffalo's not going away.

yeah, was hoping 7-9 would win the division.
 
I am optimistic today, i think they're going to surprise
 
Beat Jets and Dolphins at home, split against the Lions/Bears, and beat SD in SD and that's 7 wins. 2 more Bills or other wins and I'm feeling good. Only game I'm doubtful they can win is @ GB.

 

[Clears Cleaver]

On the one hand we have Clear Cleaver admittedly trolling Pats fans and sodenj fired about about Miami intensity and heart based on nondescript plays.
 
On the other hand, we have markets where actual dollars that change hands saying the Pats are 2-1 favorites.
 
Guess people can choose whatever evidence they wish.

 
I wasn't trolling when I said the division was wide open. I said that in the Dolphins fans thread after watching the Pats play a couple games. I admitted to trolling Pats fans in their thread by dropping Brady stats. 
 
Buffalo is good enough to win 8 games. the Jets are not. Miami may win 10, 8, 6 or 4. Tannehill and that locker room have a huge variance. Miami is getting three of its top 10 players back (Pouncey, Jones, Misi) which should help on D and STs. Buffalo has the best talent in the division I think ex: QB. But the QB is Orton!
 
Tonight is enormous for the Pats. Not make or break in week 5, but if they get abused at the line of scrimmage for the third time in five games, then I don't know how you can say they are a good team. winning 9 with remaining schedule is tough. Getting browner helps, but they need to run, stop the run, and pass block. Most intriguing game of the day by far. 

 

[CaptainLaddie]

The division is no wide open.  Let's be clear.

 

[riboflav]

The division is no wide open.  Let's be clear.

 
Yup. Lock the thread.

 

[Stitch01]

Well, let's wait until we win a real tough game next week with a beat up defense before we do that. Much tougher challenge ahead than tonight.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

[Mod note: will keep this open as the season is still long, long way from being over -- except for the Jets, maybe]

 

[riboflav]

Well, let's wait until we win a real tough game next week with a beat up defense before we do that. Much tougher challenge ahead than tonight.

 
Ah, yes, the storyline all week will now become "hey, who have they beaten?" Tomato cans.

 

[SumnerH]

 
Ah, yes, the storyline all week will now become "hey, who have they beaten?" Tomato cans.

Like the last unbeaten team in the league?

 

[Stitch01]

I think at Buffalo is a tough road matchup given their defensive front and the threat of Kyle Orton playing competently. Win that and the Pats are in great shape to coast to the division title.

 

[TheMoralBully]

I doubt they're going to run over the Bills, they've been significantly better up front than the Bengals.  They probably come in with an entirely different offensive gameplan and it will be interesting to see how well they exectute it without the run game to lean on.

 

[CaptainLaddie]

So, is the division "wide open" NOW?

 
 

No. It never has been. It never will be.

 
Nope.  It's not.  One day, it will.  Today, it's not.

 

[Stitch01]

K, division pretty close to over now.

 

[DJnVa]

So, is the division "wide open" NOW?

 
No.
 
Some folks never learn.
 

 
 
The turkey leg represents the AFC East.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

The AFCE race looks to be all but over, with NE holding a comfortable 2 game lead over the Bills & the Phins. Phins have a game in hand in head-to-head competition, but the next game is in December at the Gillette. 
 
Current standings:

• NE: 7-2 (2-1 div; 5-2 conf)
• Bills: 5-4 (2-1 div; 2-4 conf)
• Phins: 5-4 (1-1 div; 4-2 conf)
• Jets: 2-8 (0-2 div; 2-5 conf)

We all know the Pats have a tough schedule ahead, but so do everyone else in the division (per FO, after Week 9):

• Bills: 2nd toughest (7.7%)
• Jets: 3rd toughest (6.0%)
• NE: 4th toughest (5.8%)
• Phins: 6th toughest (4.1%)

In fact, if the season ended today everyone but the Pats would be out of the playoffs in the AFC:

• NE: 1st seed in the AFC
• Bills: 10th & out of the PO
• Phins: 11th & out of the PO
• Jets: 14th & out of the PO

Miami losing Albert is absolutely huge. They do have a bye after this Thursday's contest hosting the Bills, then face Broncos, Jets, and Pats away while hosting the Ravens, Vikings, and the Jets.
 
Bills have road contests against the Phins, Broncos, Raiders, and at NE while hosting the Jets, Browns, and the Packers. 

 

[SumnerH]

The AFCE race looks to be all but over, with NE holding a comfortable 2 game lead over the Bills & the Phins. 

Huh? The two halves of this sentence contradict each other. Being up 2 games is a nice advantage, but being up 2 games with 7 games left to play is very far from "all but over".

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Huh? The two halves of this sentence contradict each other. Being up 2 games is a nice advantage, but being up 2 games with 7 games left to play is very far from "all but over".

 
Given the state of the Bills & Phins along with them having even tougher schedules than the Pats make me think it is indeed all but over SH. Pats are also the healthiest of the bunch right now.

 

[mauf]

You have to ignore divisional games when you evaluate the teams' remaining strength of schedule; otherwise, you're begging the question. If you do that, the Bills' and (especially) the Dolphins' remaining schedules are much easier than the Pats'. If you believe (as I do) that DVOA massively overrates the Ravens, MIA's remaining schedule isn't that daunting.

 

[Stitch01]

It's 95 percent over. Miami or Buffalo has to win at Foxboro to have a shot and they aren't doing that more than 15-20 percent of the time max. Otherwise both teams are effectively 3.5 down with 6 to play. They're basically drawing to a near term Brady injury.

 

[tims4wins]

Miami and Buffalo also play this Thursday, so someone is going to pick up their 5th loss. Miami also goes to Denver the week after, so a loss and they are basically eliminated from the AFC East race.
 
Buffalo follows this week with home games against the Jets and Browns, which are at least winnable. They have a shot at getting to 8-4 and putting some pressure on the Pats, especially given the Pats upcoming schedule. But if they drop one of the next 3 they are also in a fair bit of trouble since they have to go to Denver on Dec 7.
 
Long story short, it is going to be really difficult for Miami or Buffalo to get to 10 wins, and even if they do it likely won't be enough to tie for the division. The chances of either of them winning 11 games is basically nil IMO.

 

[TheoShmeo]

All thanks to Leodis McKelvin -- the same Leodis McKelvin whose late fumble helped the Pats pull out an improbable opening day win in 2009 -- for his punt return fumble in yesterday's game.  That fumble lead to KC's go ahead TD and the resulting two-game lead the Pats now enjoy over the Bills.
 
The gift that keeps on giving.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

You have to ignore divisional games when you evaluate the teams' remaining strength of schedule; otherwise, you're begging the question. If you do that, the Bills' and (especially) the Dolphins' remaining schedules are much easier than the Pats'. If you believe (as I do) that DVOA massively overrates the Ravens, MIA's remaining schedule isn't that daunting.

I think this is a good point. The Patriots' upcoming four game stretch looks as rough to me as any team will play this year. I think it's premature to call the division before it's played. 3-1 or better, and it really should be all over. 2-2 and the Patriots remain in control with work to do. Worse and it could be a dog fight. With three of these games on the road, 3-1 would really be a fantastic result. If you gave me 2-2 with no significant injuries right now, I'd take it.

 

[Ed Hillel]

You have to ignore divisional games when you evaluate the teams' remaining strength of schedule; otherwise, you're begging the question.

 
This only works if there are two games left between the teams. Otherwise, the team with homefield has the advantage, and New England has home field against the two tougher opponents in the East. New Engalnd also has arguably the most significant home field advantage in the entire league, and they get bonus points for it against a team that plays/practices in Miami's weather most of the time.

 

[Stitch01]

Plus tiebreak over Buffalo and likely tiebreak if they beat Miami given the Dolphins already have another division loss

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

While there has been some terrific "crowd work" at the Razor this season - the "Bra-DY, Bra-DY!" Cincy game, last week v Denver - can you imagine if the home crowd at Gillette was regularly loud and rabid, along the lines of a KC or Seattle?

 

[riboflav]

Tims is correct. The Patriots have the best home record of any team in the NFL in the last 10 years, and since 2003, and since 2002, and since 2001. Ergo, they are the toughest team to beat on the road.