2014 AFC East Race

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

I think one party is being literal about it - which team has been, and therefore is, toughest to best in their building - and one party is making a less concrete argument. Seattle IN Seattle maybe feels like a tougher out, ditto for Denver right now.

 

[dynomite]

Seattle lost at home this year, Denver lost late last year to San Diego, Pats last lost in the playoffs in 2012 (when Manning's Broncos also lost at home). I mean it's inarguable from a % or numbers perspective. From a qualitative angle sure it's arguable.

I don't understand what this argument is about, because you're so clearly correct. No team in the NFL has been better at home since 2001 than the Patriots. Nobody. Everyone has been worse.

It's fun to rhapsodize about the crowd noise in Seattle or the "tundra" in Green Bay or the thin air in Denver, but the W-L stats are what they are. The Patriots win more in New England than those teams do in their place.

We have had a Hall of Fame Coach and QB for over a decade. That's a hell of a home field advantage.

I mean, I guess we can have some subjective argument about who has a bigger home field edge "right now," and toss out or explain away the larger sample size? I'm not sure why we would, but we could, I guess?

 

[dcmissle]

We argue everything here .... E-V-E-R-Y  F-U-C-K-I-N-G  T-H-I-N-G
 
Well almost ... Nobody is donning his breastplate to defend the Ravens #2 cause that's just too goddamn embarrassing and obviously wrong.
 
I will add one thing.  It occurred to me last Sunday mid-afternoon  that not a lot would have to happen to have the Dolphins leading the AFC East this upcoming Sunday, albeit temporarily.  So thank you Detroit.
 
It's not over till it's over.  Miami and Buffalo are decent teams that would have a nice glide path to the playoffs if they played elsewhere.  Wrong year to be in this Conference.

 

[dynomite]

Yes, we have established that, semantically, the correct way to phrase this is: "The Patriots have been the hardest team to beat at home in the NFL for the last 13 years."

Also, the Patriots have not lost at home since January 2013.

Edit: Anyway, I'm rooting for the Bills on Thursday. We already have a W against them, so the best they could do is a split of the season series, and I find it incredibly unlikely that they will finish with a better record overall.

 

[tims4wins]

Agree with dynomite, I am rooting for the Bills since the Pats already have the win in hand.

 

[Stitch01]

Bills win means the Pats almost certainly own tiebreak with Miami if the Pats beat Miami in Foxboro since Miami has three division losses.  Would also make it very likely that the Pats lose tiebreak to Buffalo if they lose the Foxboro matchup (obviously win via sweep otherwise).  Also gives the Bills the inside track to the three way tiebreak.
 
Miami win would give Miami and Buffalo 2 division losses.  If the Pats were to beat Miami and lose to Buffalo to get to 2 division losses (other way gives Pats tiebreak vs Buffalo and Miami tiebreak vs Pats) then the non-common games are Indy and the Bengals for NE, Houston and Cleveland for Buffalo, Ravens and Jaguars for Miami.  If the Pats beat Indy or the Bills lose to the Browns they would lose a tiebreaker with Buffalo if both teams have two division losses.  They might end up going to strength of victory tiebreaker if neither of those things happen given Buffalo 3-0 out of conference, Pats 2-0.
 
Miami is more up in the air.  Pats would win tiebreak if they lose to Indy and Miami beats Baltimore.  They probably lose if it goes to the 4th tiebreak of conference record since Miami already has lost two games out of conference.  If the Pats lose to both Detroit and Green Bay, might end up in strength of victory.
 
Fuck it, root for Buffalo because its easier to figure out.

 

[dbn]

When the Patriots lose to Detroit on the 23rd I'm going to hate you all.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Buffalo has a slightly harder schedule going forward, taking out common games (CLE, GB, @OAK versus BAL, MIN, @NYJ). I think Miami has a better chance of only picking up one additional loss (probably @DEN) and therefore being in position to challenge us for the division if we lose the h-2-h game. So I'm rooting for Buffalo.

 

[bowiac]

The team quality point is well taken, and I did find a -0.15 correlation between team quality and HFA. However, that's relatively small.
 
This is probably more exploration at some point, but I ran the numbers again since 2002 using what is probably a better. This a regression between margin of victory, strength of schedule, and home field advantage. It is analogous to Football-Reference's SRS stat (which is why I termed it the same), except while Football-Reference gives all teams the same home field advantage in the regression, I have let the HFA term fit individually to each team. 
 
I suspect this makes it less predictive than normal SRS going forward, but by allowing the extra degree of freedom, makes it a better fit to describe historic events. These numbers are in terms of points:
 

 
This basically means, once you account for strength of schedule (which my previous FC posts did not do), the Patriots have effectively had 0 margin-of-victory home field advantage since Gillette opened. 
 
EDIT - these numbers assume static team quality and HFA, which is obviously wrong. To be honest, I'm not sure this will have an effect, but I will check.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Appreciate folks getting back on topic. I split out the NE & home field advantage posts like Vereen on a wheel route.