If the Thunder get knocked out in the first round I would offer up Rondo and their '14 pick for Westbrook.
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The Social Chair said:
I bet OKC would seriously consider that. The possibility of adding Rondo and Exum/Parker/Gordon/Randle would be very tempting.
so we give up rondo and a top 8 or better pick for a guy that cant win when he is on a team with the 2nd best player in the NBAThe Social Chair said:
Am I missing something?
If Westbrook any easier to build around than Rondo?
And I know the max that Rondo could get would be greater than this but starting in 14/15 Westbrooks salaries are $15.7M, $16.7M, $17.7M Maybe you get some cap savings, but you are still losing that pick. I think we are shuffling deck chairs.
And I know the max that Rondo could get would be greater than this but starting in 14/15 Westbrooks salaries are $15.7M, $16.7M, $17.7M Maybe you get some cap savings, but you are still losing that pick. I think we are shuffling deck chairs.
Westbrook is a much better player than Rondo. Rondo and the 1st round pick (if it falls between 5-7) for Westbrook would be a steal for the Celtics.
Westbrook is a better scorer, but he isnt the passer that Rondo is. When playing with good talent Rondos offensive efficiency is close to Westbrooks, and Rondo just shoots about half as many shots per 36. However, during those 36 Rondo is also giving you 2-3 more assists which helps bridge that gap. Then imagine what Westbrooks numbers would be like when he isnt playing with Durant, and the gap is decreased a bit again.
Its not as big of an upgrade as we might think, and we are giving up a high draft pick to get it. If its draft night and we have the 6th pick and there is garbage on the board, then it might look different. But a lot of the analysis on that trade depends on what guy you could get with that pick.
Its not as big of an upgrade as we might think, and we are giving up a high draft pick to get it. If its draft night and we have the 6th pick and there is garbage on the board, then it might look different. But a lot of the analysis on that trade depends on what guy you could get with that pick.
Rudy Pemberton said:
Because it gives you a premier player to build around. Look at what the Rockets did with James Harden.
BigSoxFan said:
How do you define 'true max'? I define it as 'this player can be the Alpha dog on a team that wins the title', and I dont put Westbrook in that class.
It would be less than ideal giving Rondo the max, but thats no the only option. One is letting him go in free agency and we could go give another player the max. Another is a sign and trade during free agency, and another is to resign him for something less than the max. I think each of those are about equally likely.
The Social Chair said:
Thats a bit strong, Harden has proved himself to be a very efficient offensive player and he proved that he could do it by himself in Houston last year. I just really cant see Westbrook as the player who is handed the trophy first.
I'd make that Westbrook deal from a value perspective, I'm just not sure what the next move is after that. Westbrook plus Green/Bradley/Sullinger et al isn't a contending team. I guess the hope would be that the Brooklyn picks turn into another star eventually.
I still think it's a good deal. Westbrook is a bit underrated, in my opinion. He's 25, and a legitimate offensive force, one of top 5 scorers in the NBA. I think the Thunder's problems stem mostly from coaching rather than a lack of talent. Surround Westbrook with another All-Star and a bunch of shooters (Read: Not Thabo Sefolosha and Kendrick Perkins), and you'll have a pretty good offensive team. Westbrook's also a very good rebounder for a guard, and an underrated passer.
Like I said, I don't know what the endgame would be, but when you have the chance to acquire a cornerstone player, you do it. Westbrook is that guy, and a much better player than Kevin Love. That said, I think Westbrook stays put.
I still think it's a good deal. Westbrook is a bit underrated, in my opinion. He's 25, and a legitimate offensive force, one of top 5 scorers in the NBA. I think the Thunder's problems stem mostly from coaching rather than a lack of talent. Surround Westbrook with another All-Star and a bunch of shooters (Read: Not Thabo Sefolosha and Kendrick Perkins), and you'll have a pretty good offensive team. Westbrook's also a very good rebounder for a guard, and an underrated passer.
Like I said, I don't know what the endgame would be, but when you have the chance to acquire a cornerstone player, you do it. Westbrook is that guy, and a much better player than Kevin Love. That said, I think Westbrook stays put.
BigSoxFan said:
I'd say: healthy Kobe, Dirk, (I cringe) Melo, Howard, Lebron, Wade, Paul, Durant, healthy Rose, Harden, Paul George might be becoming one of these guys, Duncan but just barely now. Thats 12
Heres a different way to look at this conundrum, the composition of payroll for teams that have won or just got to the finals. Wipe out the Lebron Miami examples because those are different obviously.
- Last year the Spurs got there last year but no one was making Westbrook money.
- In 11/12 the Thunder got there but Durant was the only guy making more than $10M. The Mavs won with Dirk $17M, Chandler 13, Terry 10 and Butler 10.
- In 9/10 the Lakers beat us with Gasol as a 2nd fiddle making $16M but that was with the true max Kobe. We got there but the Big3 but KG was our true max guy and he was actually making less than PP and Ray.
- In 8/9 Lakers got there with the Kobe/Gasol combo, and the Magic got there with Howard and Rashard Lewis at $16M
- 7/8 it was us and the Lakers again
IMHO Westbrook is overpaid and overrated. I might give Rondo and Bass for him, but I wouldn't offer a pick. And I wouldn't expect to win with Westbrook; he'd just be an asset to flip in a year or two.
I might offer Rondo and a pick for DeMar DeRozan, however, and another Raptor I'd be targeting is upcoming free agent Kyle Lowry.
I might offer Rondo and a pick for DeMar DeRozan, however, and another Raptor I'd be targeting is upcoming free agent Kyle Lowry.
Rudy Pemberton said:
Westbrook is already signed for the next 3 years.
BigSoxFan said:
We have those picks and we think those picks should be good, but we know this pick is good or at least high in the draft. So this is a very tangible, relatively valuable commodity to give up.
I really refuse to believe no one of value comes here if we have cap space. No we are not getting a true max guy with an empty roster, but that is not the sole purpose of getting the cap and the one and only type of free agent to sign. If we were able to sign 2 $10M guys who were actually worth $10M thats could be just as valuable as a 'gets the max but is sort of overpaid' type. Look at Indiana, they swept in and stole David West from us and he is a major cog for their team, and they are not a premier destination and he signed there after they had just won 37 games.
I have to agree that its unclear if this draft is really great or just a mixed bag of jokers. But if you are going into a draft with the 6th and 17th pick you better expect to leave that draft with a significant contributor or if you dont like the board then trade those picks to get yourself something you do like. Having 2 picks this high is very, very rare. When the Patriots have 2 first rounders we get all giddy and think its the beginning of the next dynasty. This draft isnt going to build us the next Big3, but we should be excited and have some decent expectations for it.
Brickowski said:
This should get you banned and I am half serious.
These are basketball reference's similar players. I dont want to trade Rondo and a pick for Raymond Felton
Tom Henderson
Raymond Felton
John Roche
Jim McElroy
George Senesky
Al Skinner
Skeeter Swift
Chris Ford
Slick Watts
Rodney Stuckey
Have you been watching the Raptors in the playoffs? Both DeRozan and Lowry are playing outstanding basketball. DeRozan is 6'7 and signed long term for very reasonable money; I view him as one of the best young sg's in the league. As for Lowry, I'm looking to get him in free agency, not in a trade.
Basketball reference needs to update its player comparisons.
Basketball reference needs to update its player comparisons.
wutang112878 said:
Having two picks in this range isn't rare, and the NFL and NBA drafts have little in common.
Lowry was a top 5 PG this year, and for much of the season was a top 5 player. There's plenty of questions about him sustaining this level of play, but he's a very good player, and has been the best player on the floor in that series. Comparing him to Felton, despite what basketball reference says, is a joke. Felton has never approached the player Lowry is right now.Brickowski said:
Brickowski said:
My critique is solely on DeRozan. Forget about the column to the far right in the box score and shift your focus left towards the FG% He is very bad at shooting the basketball, and for a shooting guard thats kind of a problem. DeRozan is a volume shooter that cant shoot.
Grin&MartyBarret said:
The comparisons I listed were for DeRozan
DeRozan is 24 years old and has been playing outstanding basketball in the playoffs. I'm not looking to acquire him for what he was in 2011. I'm looking to acquire him for what he could be in 2014-15 and thereafter.
He's looked pretty efficient against the Nets. He plays defense, too, and shoots well from the line. I don't have any idea how to rank him, because I view him as an improving player.
Forget contract and age. I need a player for a game tomorrow and ask you for a list of the most efficient shooting guards. Where is DeRozan on that list? 5, 15, 36?
I don't think the Raptors would part with DeRozan at all, not with the way he's played in the playoffs so far.
I don't think Westbrook is overrated, but you have to consider supply and demand in determining value. There are a ton of good combo guards in the league right now, and you can reliably find decent point guards in the late lottery of the draft. That's why we can't trade Rondo for much, and it's also why I wouldn't give up the farm for a point guard.
I believe we talked about this before and its high risk / high reward but how about Rondo and our pick for Rose? With the caveat being we dont move up in the draft obviously. But without Rose the last 2 years the Bulls made the playoffs and last year they actually made a little noise. Then if Rose gets healthy, big if, he is a genuine max guy / alpha dog. Before everyone jumps all over me for this being insanely risky, I'll present this with the caveat that to get to the top I think you have to take some big risks.
If the Celtics were a 40 win team looking to add one star in order to become a true contender, I might take such an insane risk. But the Celtics are in a different place, and if Rose comes back at 85-90% of what he was, I'd be stuck with a huge cap clogging contract ($60M over the next 3 years) for a decent but not great player. Plus he may not come back at all.
Look at the the teams that (a) need a pg with Rondo's skills, and (b) where Rondo might be willing to sign an extension. It's a short list: the Lakers, the Knicks and the Heat. Maybe Detroit too, but I'm not going to reopen that can of worms. Then look at what assets those teams have, and what they might be willing to relinquish in a Rondo deal.
A draft night deal with the Lakers could depend on what happens on lottery night. If LA moves up, their first rounder is untouchable. But if they stay at #6 or #7, I'd offer Rondo and Green for the pick and Gasol (expiring). I'd probably let Gasol walk (to Memphis, in all likelihood). That gives Ainge 3 picks in the top 17, plus the cap space to go after someone like Lowry. Nash and the pick for Rondo also works for me.
The Knicks have Tyson Chandler, who IMHO is a perfect fit for Boston, at least in the short run. Something like Rondo, Bass and Bogans for Chandler on draft night might make sense, so long as I think I can extend Chandler for reasonable dollars (and as long as he's healthy). But Ainge may not want to trade Rondo within the division.
The Heat have nothing to offer so far as I can see.
Look at the the teams that (a) need a pg with Rondo's skills, and (b) where Rondo might be willing to sign an extension. It's a short list: the Lakers, the Knicks and the Heat. Maybe Detroit too, but I'm not going to reopen that can of worms. Then look at what assets those teams have, and what they might be willing to relinquish in a Rondo deal.
A draft night deal with the Lakers could depend on what happens on lottery night. If LA moves up, their first rounder is untouchable. But if they stay at #6 or #7, I'd offer Rondo and Green for the pick and Gasol (expiring). I'd probably let Gasol walk (to Memphis, in all likelihood). That gives Ainge 3 picks in the top 17, plus the cap space to go after someone like Lowry. Nash and the pick for Rondo also works for me.
The Knicks have Tyson Chandler, who IMHO is a perfect fit for Boston, at least in the short run. Something like Rondo, Bass and Bogans for Chandler on draft night might make sense, so long as I think I can extend Chandler for reasonable dollars (and as long as he's healthy). But Ainge may not want to trade Rondo within the division.
The Heat have nothing to offer so far as I can see.
Brickowski said:
Man do you love centers.
As a Knicks fan, I'm hoping Danny Ainge is reading this, drunk, and mistakes it for a message from the ghost of Brigham Young and feels compelled to act on it. But realistically, there's a 0% chance that Danny Ainge is sending Rondo to the Knicks for an aging defensive-only center on an expiring deal.
wutang112878 said:
Another element to keep in mind, is that Rose makes about 6 million more than Rondo, so Chicago will have to bridge that gap salary wise. Doesn't feel like a huge deal, until you start looking at Chicago's roster and realize that their mid-size contracts are all useful players, and so are a lot of their small contracts. They're not going to be willing to add Gibson, Butler, or Dunleavy and beyond them all they really have are a bunch of 1,000,000 or 800K contracts. Takes a lot of those to bridge the gap between Rose and Rondo's contracts.
I do like centers. It's what the team needs. I also agree with moly99 and others that we can't trade Rondo for much. I think it is 90% or better that Rondo will test free agency and that Ainge will either lose him for nothing or be forced to overpay.
I think you have it reversed. It's the Celtics who would have to throw in filler, and we've got plenty of that.Grin&MartyBarret said:
I will shoot myself if Danny trades Rondo and a 1st rounder for Derozan.
Here's an article about DeRozan's propensity for mid-range shots: http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2014/01/22/derozans-mid-range-fetish/ He did shoot a lot more 3s this year than years past, but at a 30% clip. He also oddly shot 2/game in March/April vs 4/game in November.
Here's an article about DeRozan's propensity for mid-range shots: http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2014/01/22/derozans-mid-range-fetish/ He did shoot a lot more 3s this year than years past, but at a 30% clip. He also oddly shot 2/game in March/April vs 4/game in November.
Devizier said:
Yeah, I'm really curious to see the list of players that are worth building around. If Love isn't one of them, and Westbrook isn't one of them, who's that leave?
They are both upgrades, the argument isnt that they arent upgrades. I just dont see the point of giving up Rondo and a top pick for Westbrook because I don't see where we go from there. If the pick is good, I'd rather have that and Rondo or the cap space i.e. let Rondo walk.Devizier said:
If we are getting Westbrook to flip him, that's great but why wouldnt OKC just eliminate the middle man.
The Celtics are nowhere without better defense in the middle. Stevens and Ainge call it "rim protection" but it's more than that. Neither Love, Westbrook nor Rose provide defense in the middle, so even if Ainge acquires one of those players, he will be at least one critical piece away.
Brickowski said:
Cool. And unless the rim protector you want to acquire is peak Hakeem Olajuwon, the C's will still be one critical piece away once they acquire said rim protector. Nobody is saying "trade for Kevin Love and the Celtics are done rebuilding." They're saying that trading for a marquee player like that is an important step in the rebuild.
I can't remember if I posted this in the draft thread, but if the C's can't swing a mega-deal, how about this year's pick (i.e. someone like Randle) to GS for Klay Thompson? Boston gets a young scoring wing and GS improves up front.
Ainge surely knows he can get a deal for Asik done whenever he wants if there is another move out there this summer to greatly improve talent on this team.Brickowski said:
The Rondo debate for me, which I've held firm on without any evidence proving contrary for 6 years now, is his impact on the actual results. John Wall, for example, has a great impact on W and L's, Westbrook does as well although not to as great a degree......Rondo, year after year, has a negative impact in these end results.
Theoretically if a Rondo/Westbrook swap were made (it won't be) you then can add an Asik to gain a greater impact. Westbrook would provide this team with a player who can score in the halfcourt in the final 6 minutes of the game which we didn't have this past year. This is THE biggest hole on the team and also one that DeRozen could fix and be a major pact (although that isn't happening either).
It's almost like the 100% stat-heads are so close-minded that they would prefer a Sully 3 or a player incapable of scoring in iso with a contested shot in the paint over a mid-range jumper from an elite shot creator who can pressure the defense that creates open shots for others while getting to the line as well. DeRozan made a tremendous leap this year.....these same people probably wouldn't want Aldridge either.
HomeRunBaker said:
This isn't true. Zach Lowe touched on this recently
http://grantland.com/features/nba-playoffs-preview-round-one-weekend-two-2014/
I don't disagree, although the big guy is the hardest piece to acquire. A player like Lowry or Irving (who probably isn't staying in Cleveland) can give you 90-95% of what Westbrook could bring for less money. IF OKC is going to blow it up, my targets would be more modest: Ibaka or Adams.Grin&MartyBarret said:
As for Love, I can't take any trade talk seriously because IMHO he's going to opt out and sign with a Los Angeles team. I don't see him as a realistic possibility, and a Westbrook acquisition is even more far fetched.
Yes I'm well aware of Portland's analytics and Lowe's piece. I was referring to the "Oh no not DeRozan all he does is shoot mid-range jumpers" insinuation when he has already trumpeted that line on him this past season since he's taken a major leap once Gay was moved allowing him to be a true #1 option.The Social Chair said:
Toronto never moves DeRozan for a Rondo rental.
On DeMar DeRozan:
1. He's better than he was.
2. He's still not anything special.
DeRozan has moved from a guy who was badly overpaid to a guy who might be worth his $9.5M a year. He still doesn't bring much on D, doesn't rebound all that well and doesn't shoot well. His offense is based on tough shots and getting fouled. That works out in a mediocre way when the Raptors give him 1/3 of all possessions, but it isn't someone who can be one of the 3 best players on a contender. I wouldn't even consider trading a top 5 pick for him with an expiring who was no good, nevermind giving up Rondo.
1. He's better than he was.
2. He's still not anything special.
DeRozan has moved from a guy who was badly overpaid to a guy who might be worth his $9.5M a year. He still doesn't bring much on D, doesn't rebound all that well and doesn't shoot well. His offense is based on tough shots and getting fouled. That works out in a mediocre way when the Raptors give him 1/3 of all possessions, but it isn't someone who can be one of the 3 best players on a contender. I wouldn't even consider trading a top 5 pick for him with an expiring who was no good, nevermind giving up Rondo.
HomeRunBaker said:
By affecting wins and losses do you mean the winning percentage of the team is basically the same with him or without him? In the 12/13 stretch that where they went ~500 with him and ~500 without him, but is there really a large sample size beyond that?
The on/off numbers sort of indicate otherwise because say in 11/12 he was a +7.7 Ortg, 10/11 it was +9.3, 9/10 it stunk, 08/9 it was +5.9, 07/8 it was 5.8 I also have no idea what the problem was in 12/13 because it seemed as though he just didnt want to play basketball with his teammates. But the point being that there is some data that suggests that Rondo significantly impacts games, when surrounded by talent. Since his skills are the 3 P's ( passing, penetrating and pace) and he cant shoot, if he has crap teammates around him he isnt going to impact the game very much which is what we saw this year and his rookie year.
Grin&MartyBarret said:
There's a distinction to be made between players worth picking up in free agency and players worth trading for. Would I want to sign Love or Westbrook in free agency? Yes. Would I want to give up multiple firsts for one of those guys? No.
Grin&MartyBarret said:
Yes, but right now the Celtics are not in a position to add multiple star players except through the draft. If they trade away this year's top 6 pick and another first for Kevin Love and they would still not have enough around him to be a championship contending team. They need to be patient and wait another year while clearing out cap space and picking up some good young players in the draft.
Sure, but as one of the people critical of a Love trade (I would consider the Westbrook trade, though I think OKC wouldn't) it is about how you get that player. Kevin Love is a guy who is probably a rental, there isn't a huge incentive for him to re-sign on a team that would be at least as bad as the team he is on now. Giving up a top 5 pick for a marquee player is good only if you have the guy locked up long term in his prime. Further most of these proposals seem to involve moving Rondo who is probably not a marquee player, but is in the next tier down and a top 5 pick. Sure there are plenty of top 5 busts, but a hit on a lottery guy is one of the best ways to re-build a team. Six of the eight East playoff teams are built around lottery drafted players (CHA is borderline, Kemba is the 2nd best player behind Al who was FA signing), six of eight in the west as well. (Clippers are kinda on the bubble, Blake is drafted CP3 traded for).Grin&MartyBarret said:
You have to throw out the numbers when Rondo was playing with KG, Pierce and Allen. He became an all star playing half court basketball with three veteran HOF players and enough interior defense to let him cheat to get steals.wutang112878 said:
With the current team, Rondo plays too slowly. That's all there is to it. This team needs open court baskets to succeed. As soon as they play slowdown, they're toast. They don't shoot well enough or execute well enough in the half court. They don't defend the rim well enough to let perimeter defenders cheat. And that's going to be the case for 2-3 more years at least.
The perfect point guard for this team would be a 6-3 (or taller) version of Phil Pressey who can shoot from the outside and keep guys between his knees on defense.
Rondo isn't stupid and I think he understands this, which is why I expect him to leave in free agency if not traded before then.