You can't really "waste" a 6th round draft pick.
You can absolutely waste a 2nd rounder though.
You can absolutely waste a 2nd rounder though.
There may be good defense of tonight's pick but that ain't one of em.HomeRunBaker said:I'm glad we "wasted" a draft pick on a pedestrian QB when we had Bledsoe still in his prime. How'd that work out?
Ok, you're saying two arguments, but it seemed to me that you were shifting the goalposts from "they did nothing to potentially help their team this year" to "their overall first two days sucked."Deathofthebambino said:Ed, make up my mind about what? I'm perfectly capable of arguing more than one thing. Nothing I said contradicts anything else.
SMU_Sox said:Another guy I wanted. Feel like Pats are losing their top guys right before they pick. Then again I have no fucking clue.
Questions like this are why I hope BB writes a revealing book when he hangs up his whistle. There's so much we don't know with this stuffEric Ampersand said:
I've been getting that feeling too. I wonder if Garoppolo would have been the pick if Kony Ealy or Allen Robinson were still there.
Deathofthebambino said:If they are just looking for a guy to give them 4 years as a backup at a minimum salary, then do that shit in the 4th round.
I'm having trouble wrapping my head around something. If the Pats truly believe that JG is the next great thing, why did they risk him getting all the way to their pick at 62? Did they think they were the only ones that felt that way about him, so they didn't need to worry about moving up? Or were they just unconcerned and if someone else grabbed him, they would have just moved in another direction, because if that's the case, I really don't understand why they took him where they did?
My guess is BB ranks by positional importance as much as team need.bombdiggz said:Not knowing anything about the Pat's strategy, and while also being completely disappointed by the pick, I'm going with: JG = player that was highest on their board.?.
Yup, simplest explanation.bombdiggz said:
Not knowing anything about the Pat's strategy, and while also being completely disappointed by the pick, I'm going with: JG = player that was highest on their board.?.
Right but how is it wasted by selecting the player Belichick tags as Brady's heir apparent? That is a huge responsibility. Most fans don't look past the upcoming season while team executives have the responsibility to plan for the future. I'm sure many fans in Green Bay were complaining about wasting a 1st rounder on Aaron Rodgers since he wasn't going to play for the next 4 years anyway.Deathofthebambino said:You can't really "waste" a 6th round draft pick.
You can absolutely waste a 2nd rounder though.
DrewDawg said:
Not a Rev Approved answer? I generally like you as the Conscience of the Thread and The One Who Keeps it on Track, but there's no right answer here. Or at least none that we're privy too. If there's a specific answer you want, just tell us.
HomeRunBaker said:Right but how is it wasted by selecting the player Belichick tags as Brady's heir apparent? That is a huge responsibility. Most fans don't look past the upcoming season while team executives have the responsibility to plan for the future. I'm sure many fans in Green Bay were complaining about wasting a 1st rounder on Aaron Rodgers since he wasn't going to play for the next 4 years anyway.
Steve Young, Danny White, Kaepernick wasn't expected to come on so quick......no it doesn't happen often because GM's are on short leashes and sometimes aren't in positions to secure the franchises future since they won't be around to reap the rewards. Every situation above plus Rodgers, were designed by a secure GM.Deathofthebambino said:HRB, aside from Aaron Rodgers, how often does an heir apparent get tagged by a team, sit on the bench for a few years, and then step in and become a top 10-15 QB? It's a nice theory and all, but does it ever actually happen? I don't view this pick any different than I do the Mallett pick, or the Hoyer pick, or any of the other QB's that BB has taken. There is a report that the Pats were going to take Bortles (and I think I read Manziel too) if he fell to them in the first round, so are they really enthralled with JG, or did BB just feel he needed to take a QB this year? He must have also been awfully confident that nobody else saw what he did in Garoppolo, because he let 61 picks go in front of him without moving up to make sure he didn't miss him.
I don't think JG is Brady's heir apparent, and I don't think BB thinks he is either. I think he was the best player on their board, and that's who they draft. I'm saying that I think this was a year that they should have drafted for need, and not for the best player available. I'm a broken record at this point, but they are so damned close to winning another Super Bowl, and they really don't have a lot of holes to fill and they didn't every try to do that today, and to me, that's just really frustrating.
And just to be clear, I like Garoppolo. I like him more than Bridgewater and Manziel (but not as much as Bortles or Carr), and I think he could be a good NFL QB. I just don't think the Pats needed to take him today, with the 60th pick, in this loaded draft. And then to follow that up by trading away their third rounder to move down 12 spots and add a 6th rounder? I don't get it. It's like they just punted on the draft. Maybe they have their eyes on some free agent that we don't know about are trying to save some money on rookie contracts. However they made their decision, I think teams like San Fran and Seattle and even the Jets and Ravens got a lot better today and that Pats didn't, and that kind of blows.
Exactly right.Devizier said:"Nobody knows nothing"
Absolutely. Belichick has a lot of experience in wasting 2nd rd picks.Deathofthebambino said:You can't really "waste" a 6th round draft pick.
You can absolutely waste a 2nd rounder though.
edit: nevermindj-man said:on NE as a broncos fan 2 years ago Elway pulled the same trick and it cost a 2012 SB Game aga SF Because had we drafted a guy like D Marin we might had won Aga Balt in 2012 this was 2 years too soon for a QB i mean 1 more star pass rusher or A Star OL and NE Plays in SB 49 now u open it up and Let Denver Indy Pitt Balt have a shot at 49 too out of the AFC
I can't believe you think this. No wonder you're so worked up. Well, here's the good news: you're wrong! Yes, BB likes to pick the BPA. Why? Because he thinks it's the best thing for his team. On the other hand, he doesn't do it because someone told him it should be a rule that he always follows regardless of situation and team need. He's not a fucking moron, he's a highly intelligent free thinker who puts winning above all. I'm not saying I know he's right or that his decisions are flawless but the logic you laid out is clearly detrimental to the team. He picked JG because he believes it will help the Patriots win football games. It's as simple as that.Deathofthebambino said:I don't think JG is Brady's heir apparent, and I don't think BB thinks he is either. I think he was the best player on their board, and that's who they draft. I'm saying that I think this was a year that they should have drafted for need, and not for the best player available. I'm a broken record at this point, but they are so damned close to winning another Super Bowl, and they really don't have a lot of holes to fill and they didn't every try to do that today, and to me, that's just really frustrating.
I wonder what impact the new cost structure for draft picks influences this decision. 20 years ago it may have been more cost effective to sign a veteran free agent as your backup. Now it might be better to draft a rookie. Im on a phone. Can anyone provide some comparisons for veterans versus 2nd round picks?Deathofthebambino said:Steve Young had played in the USFL, and then was the starting QB in Tampa Bay before he went to San Fran. As you noted, Kaep didn't last very long on the bench. I'll give you Danny White though. So, that makes 2 guys in the past 40 years that made it to the NFL via the map being plotted out by dozens (?) of posters in this thread. To say that the idea that JG will be the next Aaron Rodgers and things will work out that way is optimistic at best. Probably closer to wishful thinking.
That said, I don't disagree with you that it's a good situation, he's a BB guy and all of that. But none of that changes my opinion that this draft pick could have been used in much, much better fashion. From where I sit, there are two things that have to happen to have it make any sort of sense. First, there has to be a deal in place for Mallett, and second, they have to be absolutely convinced that JG is the future. I haven't seen any reason to believe that either of those things are a reality, but if he turns out to be the third guy in 40 years to follow the path, I'll eat my words. Happily.
axx said:At this point, I am kind of hoping they can turn Jax's pick in the 4th into a 3rd next year.
Back-up quarterbacks with playing experience are very, very expensive. A guy like Kyle Orton costs roughly 3 million a year; Chad Henne makes 4 million a year; Michael Vick is on a one-year $5 million deal. Hell, Mark Sanchez cost 2.25 million.pappymojo said:I wonder what impact the new cost structure for draft picks influences this decision. 20 years ago it may have been more cost effective to sign a veteran free agent as your backup. Now it might be better to draft a rookie. Im on a phone. Can anyone provide some comparisons for veterans versus 2nd round picks?
They have 7 picks today -- three 4s, three 6s and a 7 -- that's a fair amount of ammo.Sportsbstn said:
I sure do not. This a deep draft with solid talent still on the board. The Patriots still need plenty of help for this year coming and can get it today.
30% of the league is undrafted, you could make the argument that NE got more out of its 2013 undrafted free agents than Miami got out of its 2013 draft.dcmissle said:They have 7 picks today -- three 4s, three 6s and a 7 -- that's a fair amount of ammo.
Totally get and share the angst, but not the condemnation. Neither player taken was an obvious reach. They are just more than average risky for different reasons.
Now if Bill gets "bored" today and doesn't get much out of the currency, we're having a different conversation. But right after deep depth saved a season, I kind of doubt that's going to happen.
ShaneTrot said:30% of the league is undrafted, you could make the argument that NE got more out of its 2013 undrafted free agents than Miami got out of its 2013 draft.
I bet Bill is thrilled to have this many picks today. He gets to draft his 'priority' free agents.
dcmissle said:They have 7 picks today -- three 4s, three 6s and a 7 -- that's a fair amount of ammo.
Totally get and share the angst, but not the condemnation. Neither player taken was an obvious reach. They are just more than average risky for different reasons.
Now if Bill gets "bored" today and doesn't get much out of the currency, we're having a different conversation. But right after deep depth saved a season, I kind of doubt that's going to happen.
There is actually a significant dropoff following Round 1 to where you could make a case the difference between rounds 2-6 isn't nearly as significant as from 1 to 2.mwonow said:
True, but the basis of comparison here is flawed. I don't have exact figures, but I'm reasonably certain that while a reasonably small fraction of the league is 1st/2nd/3rd rounders, they have a relatively low wash-out rate, while a higher % of 4-7 and UDFAs invited to camp don't end up making NFL rosters. So - sure, people catch lightening in a bottle every year, and there's a lot of it around, but there's a reason why really talented players get drafted high, and generally stick in the NFL.
twibnotes said:Questions like this are why I hope BB writes a revealing book when he hangs up his whistle. There's so much we don't know with this stuff
Eck'sSneakyCheese said:Didn't know where I should post this but I thought it was interesting. Since 06 there have been 14 QB's taken in the second round. I wanted to go back ten years but in 04 and 05 there were none. The names in order are:
Kellen Clemens - 06
Tarvaris Jackson - 06
Kevin Kolb - 07
John Beck - 07
Drew Stanton - 07
Brian Brohm - 08
Chad Henne - 08
Pat White - 09
Jimmy Clausen - 10
Andy Dalton - 11
Colin Kaepernick - 11
Brock Osweiler - 12
Geno Smith - 13
So, that's 2 out of 14 who have done anything in the NFL in Dalton and Kaep. The rest of the list is uninspiring. YMMV, on the relevance but the history isn't favorable.
Agree today is very important. They were bold in the first round, conservative in the second, and dealing the third naturally leaves us feeling exposed for 14. If they can get productive players with the two picks they received, and address their several positions of need, people will be feeling better tonight.Sportsbstn said:
DC, my point was I do not want the Pats to be trading out of the Jags pick into the 3rd round next year because there is very solid talent still on the board and this is a deep draft from all accounts. Beyond that, the Pats need more help this year and are in the position to get it today. The first 2 selections so far, we will see, but today is an important day. The Pats lack of any real talent at WR still scares me more than any other position and that will be hard to improve here, but other positions can definitely be helped.
We all know 6th round QB's are routinely hit on. Come on be better than this.Devizier said:
Well thank god the Patriots aren't counting on quarterbacks drafted in rounds after that, because those guys must really suck!
Yeah, they need to throw picks at the lines. I'm agnostic about what they do beyond that.dcmissle said:Agree today is very important. They were bold in the first round, conservative in the second, and dealing the third naturally leaves us feeling exposed for 14. If they can get productive players with the two picks they received, and address their several positions of need, people will be feeling better tonight.
I am worried about WR, TE and strengthening both lines.
Thank you. Thats what I figured. So from a roster construction perspective it seems that this helps the team regardless of whether or not he sees significant time as a starter if the cost savings is what allows us to sign players like Revis. Of course this doesnt mean that the same savings isnt available in a latter round, but Belichick also wants a backup he can be confortable with.Shelterdog said:Back-up quarterbacks with playing experience are very, very expensive. A guy like Kyle Orton costs roughly 3 million a year; Chad Henne makes 4 million a year; Michael Vick is on a one-year $5 million deal. Hell, Mark Sanchez cost 2.25 million.
A second round pick costs roughly 500-750k a year.
Economically it really makes a ton of sense to have a non first round pick as a back-up QB.
Interesting, but I wonder what the success rate is in other rounds. I'd guess it's higher in the first, but not all that different in rounds 3-7.Eck'sSneakyCheese said:Didn't know where I should post this but I thought it was interesting. Since 06 there have been 14 QB's taken in the second round. I wanted to go back ten years but in 04 and 05 there were none. The names in order are:
Kellen Clemens - 06
Tarvaris Jackson - 06
Kevin Kolb - 07
John Beck - 07
Drew Stanton - 07
Brian Brohm - 08
Chad Henne - 08
Pat White - 09
Jimmy Clausen - 10
Andy Dalton - 11
Colin Kaepernick - 11
Brock Osweiler - 12
Geno Smith - 13
So, that's 2 out of 14 who have done anything in the NFL in Dalton and Kaep. The rest of the list is uninspiring. YMMV, on the relevance but the history isn't favorable.
Buster Olney the Lonely said:Interesting, but I wonder what the success rate is in other rounds. I'd guess it's higher in the first, but not all that different in rounds 3-7.
I'd do it myself, but I'm at lunch with my kid at the moment.
RedOctober3829 said:We all know 6th round QB's are routinely hit on. Come on be better than this.
Devizier said:
Evaluating players on a narrow criteria like "quarterbacks chosen by any team in the second round over the last ten years" is not particularly informative. Even setting aside issues of small sample size, there are team-specific aspects to consider: offensive styles, player development, and coaching can all confound this type of analysis. In this context, it's worth mentioning in this space that the Patriots have developed three NFL starters (counting Hoyer) at the position during Belichick's tenure. I think it's also worth mentioning that how teams evaluate quarterbacks has clearly changed. So while the Patriots might have found their guys (Hoyer and Cassel) at the back of the draft in the past, they might not be able to do that anymore.
The other main consideration is what shelterdog pointed out: quarterbacks that can play at all are valuable and, relatedly, expensive. Revisiting that list that Eck posted, many of those guys are still in the league, even after their rookie deals were up. Chad Henne has a cap hit of $5.75 million this season, Tarvaris Jackson and Kellen Clemens are earning $1.25 million a piece. Virtually all of those players were capable enough to last their rookie contracts. Given the outside chance that you score a Dalton or Kaepernick (talent-wise, at least), doesn't it make sense to take a chance on a quarterback from time to time? It's not like Mallett is under contract long term.
Look, I was disappointed by the Garoppolo pick when I saw it too, but then I realized that I know fuck-all about what makes a good prospect in the league. And I'm getting the distinct impression that I'm not alone in this boat.