2014 Michigan Football: Dammit Jim, we need a Harbaugh. And a miracle worker.

Chemistry Schmemistry

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There's grumbling now. And a toasty hot seat if he doesn't go 8-4 or better. But if we dump him, we have to prepare for more players leaving and the perception that there's no continuity here. I want to see how the team reacts when the conference season starts. You look at the stats alone, including the turnovers, and you see maybe a 10-14 point loss on the road to a ranked team. This wasn't like some of last year's losses, where the team was physically beaten into submission. I don't want to give up on Hoke yet, though I'm really unhappy with this performance. Yeah, I think it's time to debate Morris and Gardner.
 

twibnotes

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Chemistry Schmemistry said:
There's grumbling now. And a toasty hot seat if he doesn't go 8-4 or better. But if we dump him, we have to prepare for more players leaving and the perception that there's no continuity here. I want to see how the team reacts when the conference season starts. You look at the stats alone, including the turnovers, and you see maybe a 10-14 point loss on the road to a ranked team. This wasn't like some of last year's losses, where the team was physically beaten into submission. I don't want to give up on Hoke yet, though I'm really unhappy with this performance. Yeah, I think it's time to debate Morris and Gardner.
I married into a Penn St family and end up watching a lot of their games as a result. Seeing what Bill O'brien was able to do with a team that had clear weaknesses and zero depth really opened my eyes. I'm not a football expert, but you can tell when a team has a coaching advantage. It's that combo of a superior gameplan and a tendency to play with greater discipline than the opponent.

Have you ever felt we had that during the Hoke years?
 

Chemistry Schmemistry

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It's only one of the weaker MAC teams today, Miami, but Michigan looks quite motivated. No question getting shut out made every player on that team take a long look at what each game means to them. Today was never an issue, but next week will be difficult. Utah has struggled since moving to the Pac-12, but this year's Utes are much better, and will put a lot of pressure on the offensive line in particular.

Of concern, starters Devin Funchess (possession WR), Desmond Morgan (LB), Jarrod Wilson (S) and Ray Taylor (CB) are not dressed. Like many teams these days, Michigan errors on the side of caution with injury reports, so all we know is that Taylor and Funchess both had to leave the Notre Dame game.
 

twibnotes

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I defy you to name a more poorly coached team. Awful mistakes, bad preparation, players playing beneath their supposed ability. Imagine if Hoke had not gotten some well ranked classes.
 

Chemistry Schmemistry

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It's probably 45-0 without that spate of turnovers. And that happens. But this season will be measured against MSU and OSU, not games like this. It's still preseason, and Hoke is trying to instill a toughness that was entirely absent last year.
 

sachmoney

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I didn't watch any of the Notre Dame game. I thought I was done for the season. I am resting up after carrying a case of beer by myself to my apartment so....I am watching this. I hate myself, right?
 

twibnotes

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sachmoney said:
I didn't watch any of the Notre Dame game. I thought I was done for the season. I am resting up after carrying a case of beer by myself to my apartment so....I am watching this. I hate myself, right?
I'm confused, sachmoney. you posted this after the game ended (or close to the end), no?

P.S.

How heavy was the case of beer!?
 

Zososoxfan

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Watched the game in bits and pieces, but overall just happy with a win. I'll admit I overreacted to last week's ND game and that this team will likely be difficult to figure out week to week. In other words, I still think anywhere from 7-5 to 10-2 is possible. I still have confidence in the D, but the O looks pretty bad. Jake Ryan looked very strong and the D line seems pretty good. Surprising that our secondary, a perceived strength in preseason, has been problematic. On offense, the line doesn't look great, but potentially better than last year. Getting Jake Butt back makes this offense much better. Having Butt and Funchess on the field together and healthy should be helpful. Darboh had a nice game. Green and Smith seem like they are starting to get the new scheme more and more. This brings me to Gardner. While the kid has tons of talent, a not-experienced observer like myself can tell that his mechanics are miserable. It's hard to say, but Devin really hasn't progressed as much as he should've as a QB. A lot of this can likely be attributed to his stint as a WR and the coaching carousel, but I think his ceiling as a QB is much lower than I used to believe. Fortunately, a QB like Devin can still compete for a Big10 title this year if the rest of the team performs up to its talent.
 

sachmoney

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twibnotes said:
I'm confused, sachmoney. you posted this after the game ended (or close to the end), no?

P.S.

How heavy was the case of beer!?
Yeah at the end of the game. The case of beer was like 40 lbs without a good way of holding it. I actually bruised my biceps. It's kind of embarrassing.
 

Chemistry Schmemistry

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Gardner's only goal in this game seems to be the untimely death of Devin Funchess. With every throw, NFL scouts are cringing in agony.
 

twibnotes

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Gardner has the athleticism to do things many QBs can't do. Unfortunately, he can't read the defense or throw accurately the way most Div 1 QBs can. A lot of the ugly plays he makes stem from an inability to see a blitz coming. His field sense is terrible. When the rush is heavy on the outside, instead of stepping into the pocket, he backs up for a longer loss. I thought it was all about the weak line; it's not.
 

WayBackVazquez

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The head coach said before the season last year he thought Gardner was better than Manziel. And I'm not sure he was just trying to instill confidence.

This program is an absolute shambles. Penn State weathered a child rape scandal and the resulting sanctions better than we have dealt with the retiring of Carr.
 

Chemistry Schmemistry

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This is a lot worse than I had thought. Morris isn't ready, and Gardner just can't sustain an offense. I like a lot of things Hoke has done, but you can't win at this level without a decent quarterback.
 

twibnotes

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WayBackVazquez said:
The head coach said before the season last year he thought Gardner was better than Manziel. And I'm not sure he was just trying to instill confidence.

This program is an absolute shambles. Penn State weathered a child rape scandal and the resulting sanctions better than we have dealt with the retiring of Carr.
This is spot on...and so infuriating
 

twibnotes

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WayBackVazquez said:
The head coach said before the season last year he thought Gardner was better than Manziel. And I'm not sure he was just trying to instill confidence.

This program is an absolute shambles. Penn State weathered a child rape scandal and the resulting sanctions better than we have dealt with the retiring of Carr.
This is spot on...and so infuriating
 

berniecarbo1

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I live in Southern California and saw Brafy Hoke do a really good job at SD State. He was a good football coach and a really good guy. The team was pretty good and he left it in good shape as his successor has consistently had bowl eligible teams.

UM went to the Sugar Bowl with Brady so I thought he had turned the corner. But this year they have clearly regressed and the O has been shut out in 2 of its first 4 games by Power 5 schools. I am really surprised and saddened as I truly believe if given the chance to bring his guys in, Blue will be back on top in the next couple if years. I'm afraid that won't happen.

My only advice to you guys is don't wish too hard for Harbough. I'm not so sure he would come back to Ann Arbor and even if he did, not sure he would get you where you want. He is a good coach but his brother is a better one.
 

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It's been nice knowin' ya, Brady. Not up to the task.

It's hard to believe there hasn't been a legit pro-style QB at Michigan since... since... since... Chad Henne?

Gardner seems like a good kid, and has so many admirable qualities. He's just not an adequate B1G QB.

Shane is young, but the knock on him is that he can't go through progressions; he locks in on his primary receiver. More evidence to support this concern today (notwithstanding the check-down to Hayes).

Is there a QB on the roster?

Michigan needs a good head coach. Michigan needs a good QB. They have neither at the moment, and haven't for 6-7 years now! (Denard was a RB... He was not a QB for purposes of argument)
 

Zososoxfan

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Welp, it only took 4 weeks, but the program seems to be in full crisis mode. I don't think that's an exaggeration either - the prospects for this season just got considerably dimmer even though conference play hasn't started. I believe I stated at the beginning of the season that I expected the team to have a record between 8-4 and 10-2. Adjusting that, I think a more realistic view would be 6-6 to 8-4. MSU, OSU, and PSU all look very sketchy at the moment and other games don't look much better. While it's probably not fair to lay the blame on one player, it seems to me that Gardner has an outsized role in the offense's struggles. While it's also fair to point out that no WR outside of Funchess has excelled, the RBs haven't lived up to their promise, and the OL isn't comprised of upperclassmen, it all seems to start with Devin, since opponents really don't respect the pass and they have no real reason to. I'm not advocating for Morris or Speight at this point necessarily, just remarking on how sad it is that Gardner isn't producing or must be banged up. Hoke mentioned that QB will now really be a competition and whoever practices better will get the start, so hopefully that will yield better results. The defense has been very good, verging on outstanding, so it really highlights the issues on offense.
 
Assuming the team finishes with 6-8 wins, I think there will be significant clamor for a coaching change. It's really hard to tell whether a coaching change would be beneficial at this point. While bringing in a high profile coach would benefit from Brady's stellar recruiting, another transition may be harmful to the program overall. I was firmly in the camp that said Michigan should give Brady 5 years to turn the program around, and at the moment, I'm inclined to stick with that position. Brady really has united the program, had stellar recruiting, and gotten the program back to a certain level of systemic coherence. But, I think 5 or 6 losses this season will really take its toll. Ultimately, the record the rest of the season and the alternatives available to Brandon will dictate whether there's a coaching change or not. WIthout question though, Brady's seat is justifiably hot.
 

WayBackVazquez

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Has the recruiting really been stellar? I was also excited about the staff's ability to bring in a few elite prospects each year, but even 5-star recruits don't pan out. Quite often. That's why they need to be surrounded by a volume of 4-star kids. And on that front, Brady has failed. Because of that, last year's class was ranked #31 by Rivals. Thirty-one. This year's class doesn't look to end up much better.
 

Zososoxfan

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WBV, those rankings take into account the class's size, which is not a great indicator of success and can be misleading without context. If you look at his 2012 and 2013 classes, they are HIGHLY impressive. In '12, he pulled in two 5-stars, and ten 4-stars (all ratings via Rivals). Some of those are getting real PT - e.g. Kalis, Pipkins, Bolden, Darboh, Jenkins-Stone, Magnuson, Norfleet, Ross, Wilson, etc. In '13, it was one 5-star (Green) and sixteen(!) 4-stars, some of which are seeing the field - e.g. Green, Bosch, Butt, Taco, Gedeon, Lewis, Thomas, etc. The '13 class was ranked #5 and '12 was ranked #7 (both by Rivals). Going back a little further, Hoke was able to salvage some respectability in '11, rounding out RR's recruiting class and sitting at #21. Even with a smaller '15 class coming in, he has nine 4-stars coming in. You're right that '14 isn't a deep class, but it also has Peppers, potentially a generational recruit, 2 WRs (which to me indicates a focus and targeted attempt to fix a position group), and some other solid players (e.g. Bunting, Cole, Ferns, Winovich, and Mone).
 
Edit: added more info regarding class rankings for earlier classes
 

WayBackVazquez

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Zososoxfan said:
WBV, those rankings take into account the class's size, which is not a great indicator of success and can be misleading without context. 
 
I very much understand they take into account class size; I'm saying I'm not convinced larger class size with a slightly lower average rating is not a better indicator of success than low-volume, high perceived quality. I find it very troubling that last year's class was only 16-strong. Do you really feel that much better about our class than the three conference rivals ranked above us? I don't. (I'm also not ready to dub Peppers a "generational recruit" yet, either, but hey.)
 

Zososoxfan

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WayBackVazquez said:
 
I very much understand they take into account class size; I'm saying I'm not convinced larger class size with a slightly lower average rating is not a better indicator of success than low-volume, high perceived quality. I find it very troubling that last year's class was only 16-strong. Do you really feel that much better about our class than the three conference rivals ranked above us? I don't. (I'm also not ready to dub Peppers a "generational recruit" yet, either, but hey.)
 
My point wasn't really about the argument of class size vs. class quality, moreso that Hoke had done a good job in his tenure thus far of getting Michigan back to quality levels of recruiting - the '12 and '13 classes should help stabilize the roster considerably starting next year. '14 was a dip in quality no doubt, but that's why I noted the difference between size and quality of classes. '15 is another example of that. This is pretty important if you consider where the program was in the wake of RR. Speaking more broadly, I think Hoke served an important role for the program by unifying the alums and other powers behind the curtain. Despite his flaws, at least everyone's rowing in the same direction, the absence of which primarily caused RR's failure IMHO. If Hoke doesn't win at least one of the rivalry games (OSU, MSU) or otherwise sweep the table, I think his job will be in serious jeopardy.
 

twibnotes

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5 years would be a reasonable window for Hoke IF the team were improving. I see a team that makes a ton of mistakes that doesn't seem to improve. I also see a team whose coach refuses to adopt proven, updated strategies (spread punt) with no legit explanation.

Bringing in a new coach, unless it's Jim Harbaugh, is a big reset, which could mean years before being a top program. Problem is, I'm not sure they ever get back with Hoke.
 

Zososoxfan

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Thought this would be worth posting in here:
 
 
The Michigan Board Of Regents is off the Dave Brandon bandwagon, change is inevitable and I am told it is “only a matter of time” before Dave Brandon is done as Michigan Athletic Director.  The Regents have tired of Brandon’s act and believe his aggressive marketing and “gouging” of the Michigan fan base has done extreme damage to the brand that has been so tenderly cultivated for the last 50 years.
 
http://gregghenson.com/new-information-on-the-new-michigan-coach-and-ad/
 
Probably a bit wishful, but a poster at Mgoblog said this same site reported Hoke would be the coach weeks before it was announced, so take that FWIW.
 
Edit: English
 

Dave Stapleton

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I would hate to see Brad Bates go but you would think the Michigan gig would be his dream job.   Fortunately, if he did leave it would be after making two high profile hires.
 

twibnotes

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The guys on the mgoblue podcast mentioned that the regents were down on brandon. Not sure whether their comments tie back to the same source
 

sachmoney

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Dave Stapleton said:
I would hate to see Brad Bates go but you would think the Michigan gig would be his dream job.   Fortunately, if he did leave it would be after making two high profile hires.
Yep and it seems like he did a pretty good job with the Addazio hire. BC needed a guy that was going to restore the program after a few years of decay. Addazio seems to be on track to doing that.
 
Bates would be coming to Ann Arbor under similar circumstances. I don't know what the culture at Michigan is right now. Fort Schembechler makes it seem good, but it's definitely not when we see it on display on Saturdays. It seems like either of the two guys mentioned would be strong hires that get it on both sides (the money side and the on the field side). The whole idea that Brandon is a marketing man and doesn't get the product side pretty much nails it. It was the same thing at Dominos. I mean, look at how that stock has skyrocketed since DB left. You get the sense that, after Rich Rod, Brandon went overboard on the guy who gets Michigan. Hoke came in, cowboyed his first presser, and basically won people over with it. Yes, the first season definitely helped too. However, it's become pretty apparent that DB overlooked the whole winning aspect which I think was the real thing that rubbed people the wrong way with Rich Rod (there were, unfortunately many things). For better or worse, Michigan alums hold themselves in high esteem and hold the football program to equal standards. When the football program isn't performing, people get grumpy.
 
You have to also wonder, with the way Hoke handles his press conferences, whether he actually answered any of DB's questions. All Hoke does with the media is respond with vague-isms that really don't mean anything. I thought the media didn't push enough sometimes, but honestly, it's Hoke, not them. I just get the feeling DB said "oh this guy sounds good, I like him. He's gonna provide some great sound bites, I can work with that, marketing, money, skywriting." 
 
I like Hoke as a person. He seems like a good guy. But he's just not the right guy to lead Michigan. He's not the right guy to lead a (once) major program. We may have been the cradle of stubborn-ness forever when it comes to style, but in this day and age, you have to have a guy that knows what he is doing. Execution is everything, regardless of the scheme. The best coaches know how to get the most out of what they run. I'm talking about the Briles, the Sumlins, the Sabans, the Meyers, the Shaws, and even the Rich Rods. There's direction and vision. Hoke's failings, to me, are much like his words. He spoke about bringing back power, bringing back an in your face offense and defense. He brought in highly touted recruits that should have been able to make the transformation happen. But it didn't. And what did we hear every post game press conference? "We didn't execute."
 
I feel like I'm writing a eulogy here, well, so be it.
 
And I mean that for Hoke and only Hoke because I do like the guy. May be he's just a patsy.
 
Brandon, I could careless for. I don't have sympathy for him because I feel so much of what he has done has been driven by money and not by what is best for Michigan. More money isn't best for Michigan if you're going to exploit the fans, the students, and the alums. More money isn't the best if you're going to shove down advertisements down people's throats. You're going to spend it on dumb stuff like fireworks, skywriting, or over the top entertainment. That's not why people love Michigan. That's not why people go to games.
 
A lot has been made to about the students not going to games or showing up on time, but I think this is the issue where Brandon went most wrong. While he wasn't the only one to call out the students (media loved posting pictures of an empty student section), I thought that the criticism was pretty unfair. Changing up the seating plan was another bad move. Increasing ticket prices was really the final straw. May be I'm more sensitive to this because I was or may be still am a recent grad. You've got life things. You've got school things. May be the pregames are more important than the games too. You're still paying for those tickets. So when Brandon criticized the students, to me, it was like poking a bear. It was a move by a guy who was out of touch. And you have to realize, that if the team was actually good, people, regardless of whether they were students or not, would be there on time and anxious for these games. When the team has been as disappointing as it is, you're going to get the no shows and the late comers. Other things will be priorities.
 
Really, this is unprecedented territory we're in. May be it's just a result of not knowing what to do. However, I think at these times, you've got to figure out what you need to do better. Going after the students was not that action. Making the football team better would have been.
 
So I will not miss Dave Brandon, if this is the end for him and I hope it is. I don't want him to inflict more damage to the football program that I care deeply for. 
 

twibnotes

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Dgilpin said:
Great post sach
Seconded.

One thing that really resonated in that post is how Hoke talked about style (bringing back power run etc). I really hope our next coach is focused on maximizing the talent the team has, not forcing square pegs into round holes. Richrod sent Mallett packing. Hoke did an OK job with Denard, but it could have been better. As for Gardner? They've ruined him. You have to put the players in a position to maximize their talents.
 

Dave Stapleton

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What's been interesting about the Bates hires (Addazio and Christian) has been that he has seemingly chosen guys that he felt were right for BC and resisted influence or pressure to hire a hot name.  As such, both were a bit underwhelming and criticized quite a bit at first but are pretty quickly changing minds.  He also did something interesting on the basketball side.  He recruited a guy with a decent track record of success in the MAC but then turned around and invested a ton of money in assistants with recruiting chops (Preston Murphy and Spinelli).  While Christian hasn't coached a game yet he and his staff have secured commitments from Top 150 players and solid transfers quickly after their official visits.
 

Zososoxfan

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Article by John Bacon regarding the state of the football program, here's the money quote IMHO:
 
 
But even if the Wolverines win Saturday as expected against Minnesota, and enough fans show up to allow the department to claim the streak is alive, something is different this time around. I've often joked that many Michigan fans aren't happy unless they're not happy -- and they've had plenty of reasons to be unhappy this year. But now many are upset that they're not that upset. They are alarmed by their lack of alarm.
 
They are afflicted by something I have never seen before: Indifference.
 
http://www.thepostgame.com/blog/road-saturday/201409/michigan-wolverines-football-dave-brandon-tickets-problems-corporate
 

Granite Sox

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WayBackVazquez said:
Fans want to see Shane tomorrow by more than 3-1:
http://www.mlive.com/wolverines/index.ssf/2014/09/devin_gardner_or_shane_morris_2.html
I swear I only voted once.
  
Morris was horrible. I feel bad that he got dinged up, but he was an abject failure out there today. Huge disappointment.

bowiac said:
They basically need to fire Brandon first, and they need to do it quickly.
I don't think anything will happen until after OSU. This is going to be the college equivalent of the Bataan Death March over the next seven weeks.
 

Dgilpin

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So who does everyone want for the next coach? Let's put aside that Harbaughs or Miles what are the options, the thought of someone like Cam Cameron is less than inspiring . Could they get someone like briles , Dan Mullen is intriguing but I think Florida will be in on him as well.

As bad as this seems , Brian Kelly and ND has shown the right coach can get this turned around pretty quickly