Vonleh will be the biggest bust in this draft. Noah the ghost. Try to find some good game.tape on him.
2014 NBA Draft Thread (No Spoilers You Clowns)
- Thread starter ZMart100
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southshoresoxfan said:
IMHO, I think a small number of superstars have caused people to overreact to results college freshman are putting up. There's a ton of development left for all of these guys. Most have bust potential, but it's way too early to be making definitive statements about what guys will and won't be able to do in the NBA.
Given this massive shake-up, I am holding out some hope that Embiid falls to 6. The ceilings on the other guys just aren't that valuable. In other words, lets say these are the options in order of probability:
60% - Embiid is a waste of pick #6. One of Gordon/Vonleh/Smart ends up becoming an NBA starter/fringe All-Star
(Note two things here. First, that is a high percentage chance, I'm giving the skeptics ample room. Second, for this mental exercise to matter at all the Celtics have to correctly identify which player at #6 will be the starter/fringe All-Star
20% - Embiid is a waste of pick #6. The other players are league average
10% - Embiid is a waste of pick #6. One of Gordon/Vonleh/Smart ends up being a true NBA star
The remaining 10% is why I take Embiid because literally everything else, everything beyond this injury and in an age of advanced HGH and medicine, from make-up to skill level to work ethic are untouchable.
Missing on an NBA starter, even an occasional All-Star, does not wreck a franchise.
If the others are league average, it doesn't even matter.
The 10% chance I pulled out of my ass on missing on a true NBA star and Embiid is a major bust - Yes, that would be very painful. But the thing is, the most likely scenario for every team is that a player drafted after them will have a better career than the player they selected. It's the dice you roll.
There was no way, three days ago, we had a 10% chance, pulled out of my ass, of a franchise-changing player wearing the uniform next season (even if he wears the uniform to rehab facilities).
60% - Embiid is a waste of pick #6. One of Gordon/Vonleh/Smart ends up becoming an NBA starter/fringe All-Star
(Note two things here. First, that is a high percentage chance, I'm giving the skeptics ample room. Second, for this mental exercise to matter at all the Celtics have to correctly identify which player at #6 will be the starter/fringe All-Star
20% - Embiid is a waste of pick #6. The other players are league average
10% - Embiid is a waste of pick #6. One of Gordon/Vonleh/Smart ends up being a true NBA star
The remaining 10% is why I take Embiid because literally everything else, everything beyond this injury and in an age of advanced HGH and medicine, from make-up to skill level to work ethic are untouchable.
Missing on an NBA starter, even an occasional All-Star, does not wreck a franchise.
If the others are league average, it doesn't even matter.
The 10% chance I pulled out of my ass on missing on a true NBA star and Embiid is a major bust - Yes, that would be very painful. But the thing is, the most likely scenario for every team is that a player drafted after them will have a better career than the player they selected. It's the dice you roll.
There was no way, three days ago, we had a 10% chance, pulled out of my ass, of a franchise-changing player wearing the uniform next season (even if he wears the uniform to rehab facilities).
Now that you've put up with my terribly thought-out post: What is the reasoning behind P.J. Hairston being listed in late first/early Second? With the Celtics second pick I would jump ALL over that and didn't even mention it because I thought he was clearly in the 10-15 range.
I think it's understood in the context of the draft that when someone says "so and so will be a bust", that means it's just a best guess. Put another way, a draft thread where everyone says (accurately) "it's too early to tell", and "lets wait a few years", is kind of pointless.gammoseditor said:
That said, Julius Randle, surefire bust.
bowiac said:
Understood, but basing it results at the college level, after one season, is poor analysis.
gammoseditor said:
I don't want to speak for Southshoresoxfan, but I don't think he's basing it on results- Vonleh put up 11.3/9 with 1.5 blocks in 26 minutes per game, while shooting 52.3% from the floor and 48.5% from three. I think he's saying that despite Vonleh's numbers and measurables, he hasn't been impressed with him as an NBA prospect when he has watched him play. One of the knocks on Vonleh is that he's too passive. I love his skillset, but I think that's a legitimate concern.
Drocca said:
If your point that there is a 10% chance that one of Vonleh, Randle, Smart, Gordon, or someone else who might be picked in this range is going to become an All-Star level basketball player, I would disagree with you. I think the odds of one of them making it is much higher than that.
OTOH, if your point that there is a 10% chance of the Cs picking the right one, that's probably true.
It's hard to know what missing on an All-Star does to a franchise. For the Cs, it means that they are going to suck for at least one or two years (maybe more unless they can figure out how to parlay their picks into real assets).
I would still take Gordon. After watching Leonard and George in the playoffs, at the end of the day, it seems that athleticism and basketball IQ are pretty important in the NBA, and Gordon has both of those.
Wow, last I looked he was in the 15 range. Anyone know what has happened in the last few weeks to move him into late first/early second territory?Drocca said:
I am unsure as to how Hairston driving a rental car paid for by someone else has led to his being labeled "troubled." Immature, sure.
Regarding the boom/bust likelihoods, Bowiac posted the chart below last month and now seems like a good time to repost. It makes for fun reading, and certainly stoked my Gordon/Elfrid Payton hopes. Though now that an Embiid/Payton haul is possible...
bowiac said:
Here's the article that lists the centers who had the same injury as Embiid and their production post-surgery: http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2014/story/_/id/11110011/nba-draft-history-say-embiid-injury
- Curtis Borchardt (played 83 of a possible 328 games)
- Zydrunas Ilgauskas (played 756 of a possible 902 games)
- Kevin McHale (played 419 of a possible 492 games)
- Bill Walton (played 259 of a possible 738 games)
- Yao Ming (played 82 of a possible 246 games)
Yao is an outlier though. His career was what 6 years in? He missed a full year, started a 2nd then retired.dylanmarsh said:
Brickowski said:
What bone did Randle fracture? I never saw it reported. Navicular fractures are somewhat unique.
9-12 months seems on the long side to me, but 6 months wouldn't shock me at all. They are going to want to make sure it's totally 100% healed, and ready for the stress a 7 footer in the NBA puts on his foot. If this thing re-breaks, it's very bad news.
Randle's injury was reported as a "stress fracture" in his foot. It has also been reported that he has a pin or screw to hold it in place, which is why I assumed (perhaps incorrectly) that it was a similar injury.
I would be fine with holding Embiid out for the year if that's what it takes for his foot to heal properly.
Update from Woj: http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/233845/Joel-Embiid-Expected-To-Need-4-6-Months-Recovery
I would be fine with holding Embiid out for the year if that's what it takes for his foot to heal properly.
Update from Woj: http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/233845/Joel-Embiid-Expected-To-Need-4-6-Months-Recovery
radsoxfan said:
Apparently 5th metatarsal - http://instreetclothes.com/2014/06/12/breaking-julius-randles-injury-effects-draft-night/.
And may be a misunion.
And the Celtics are perfectly positioned to be that team. They have a ton of assets to trade, and only need to move up one or two spots which won't cost a whole lot.Jeff Van GULLY said:
Unless the teams picking 3 through 5 are unable to get Embiid's medical information. Tellum can provide that selectively.
I dont think they should take embiid. Probably best to wait a few years to add good players. Hes not good enough offensively. Dont want to waste assets. Who can we possibly pair w him.Brickowski said:
Im mocking Bricks absurdity. Everyone loves the unknown but picks apart established elite players.
What if that "someone else" was a notorious drug dealer who Hairston had been warned repeatedly about associating himself with? There was so much more to the Hairston story than driving someone else's rental car.fairlee76 said:
This was definitely noticeable. During the shooting drills it was as if it was in his backyard chillin with his dog rather than being watched and judged by 30 teams.Swedgin said:
Yes, there is. But the 'so much else' does not paint a picture of a bad guy. He was stupid. And his Mother, in particular, may have played a role larger than she should. That 'notorious drug dealer' is a party thrower in the Greensboro scene. This isn't Scarface. He kept Hairston, and his Mother, taken care of. Hairston was warned to stay away from him because everyone knew this, not because the guy was a threat or scary.
That said, the league has many more guys who made these sorts of dumb decisions fail to make it than overcome them to have a long, successful career. Is he ready to have a job? Because that's what you get when you get drafted.
I still say he goes 10 to 15 and some team is being silent.
That said, the league has many more guys who made these sorts of dumb decisions fail to make it than overcome them to have a long, successful career. Is he ready to have a job? Because that's what you get when you get drafted.
I still say he goes 10 to 15 and some team is being silent.
21 Green room invitations (from Chad Ford via Bleachereport):
Joel Embiid
Tyler Ennis
Dante Exum
Aaron Gordon
Gary Harris
Rodney Hood
Zach LaVine
Doug McDermott
Shabazz Napier
Jusuf Nurkic
Adreian Payne
Elfrid Payton
Jabari Parker
Julius Randle
Dario Saric
Marcus Smart
Nik Staukas
Noah Vonleh
T. J. Warren
Andrew Wiggins
James Young
Interestingly, Kyle Anderson and Clint Capela are not on the list. Or P.J. Hairston
Joel Embiid
Tyler Ennis
Dante Exum
Aaron Gordon
Gary Harris
Rodney Hood
Zach LaVine
Doug McDermott
Shabazz Napier
Jusuf Nurkic
Adreian Payne
Elfrid Payton
Jabari Parker
Julius Randle
Dario Saric
Marcus Smart
Nik Staukas
Noah Vonleh
T. J. Warren
Andrew Wiggins
James Young
Interestingly, Kyle Anderson and Clint Capela are not on the list. Or P.J. Hairston
We are not even counting that he really isn't that good of a player. One dimensional with work ethic issues whose family is being taken care of by yes, a notorious drug dealer in the area. The best predictor of future results is past performance and he's repeatedly make terrible decisions the past several years. Whoever spends a lottery pick on this player would be making a mistake imo.Drocca said:
HomeRunBaker said:
He has NBA ready body and could guard both the 2 and 3 if he's motivated. Biggest question is how he does without the ball in his hands all the time.
If I were the Thunder, though, and he was available, I'd take him. He could be a good fit in that "system."
Brickowski said:
Very interested to see where Anderson goes. His strengths are court vision and creativity that really manifests itself in actual games. I wouldn't be shocked if he looked totally out of place in workouts. NBA teams might get a bit gun-shy after seeing firsthand how absurdly slow he is compared to the other prospects.
I really enjoyed watching him play in college, but I'm on record saying I wouldn't want any part of him with #17 for the Celtics.
Anderson is that guy who keeps scoring on u and making nifty passes and you wonder wtf just happened. 17 is probably a stretch because im not sure he can defend anyone at the nba level, but he could be a real poor mans Diaw type forward playmaker (without the nimble foot speed unfortunately). Hell flash at summer lg and exhibition and get some fans excited but then never get off the bench unless he really dedicates himself ib the weight room and to improving his agility.radsoxfan said:
I do wonder if Diaw's success will affect how teams see him. They may not be so put off by his lack of athleticism after seeing a similar type play a critical role in a championship.BigSoxFan said:
He can live in the weight room or with performance specialists but he still has the genetic disposition of low twitch muscle fibers that will limit any improvement. I'm also assuming that a program such as UCLA who employs a full time strength and conditioning coach has already been working with Anderson aside from the normal on-court training that he receives.southshoresoxfan said:
I would love Kyle Anderson at #17, but he's very out of the norm for what Ainge drafts it seems.
DannyDarwinism said:
I think Diaw's currently less-than-chiseled shape belies how athletic he used to be. Some anecdotes here: http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2014/story/_/id/11084748/boris-diaw-dishes-san-antonio-spurs. One in particular:
DannyDarwinism said:
The thing with Diaw is that he is a complete example of a player landing on the right team. On Charlotte, he was an overweight Center with a bad attitude. Then he moves over to San Antonio, a brilliant passing team with shooters everywhere, perfect for his skill set, and pairs him up with his childhood friend, and suddenly he is coming close to triple-doubles in the NBA finals. Since the Spurs are much smarter than every other NBA team, I actually think it would be a big mistake to assume a team can just re-create Diaw's impact on with a different player on a different team.
I'm not sure anyone has posted Kevin Pelton's WARP projections. I'm not wild about WARP generally, although I do consider Pelton to be among best people writing about the NBA, and so his stuff is always a worth a read.
The big takeaway from Pelton is that he thinks the international prospects are great:
Saric doesn't rate super high, and WARP loves Smart's defensive and rebounding potential.
Here's a longer writeup from a blogger, focusing largely on Clint Capela, noting his strong measurements, but low basketball IQ.
The big takeaway from Pelton is that he thinks the international prospects are great:
Saric doesn't rate super high, and WARP loves Smart's defensive and rebounding potential.
Here's a longer writeup from a blogger, focusing largely on Clint Capela, noting his strong measurements, but low basketball IQ.
Put me down in the camp that believes that if (big "IF") Embiid is available to Boston at #6 that they should roll the dice and take him there. That assumes, of course, that they don't acquire Love with the pick. I would then make the plan being that next year Embiid essentially takes a redshirt year, which will likely mean the Celtics will suck again, so we're looking at another pick in a similar range. So that's actually beneficial for the long-term. It's definitely taking a chance. The kid appears to be injury-prone. But still…the talent is oozing out of him.
ivanvamp said:
I'd be nervous as hell about it, but I agree with this.
I would definitely pass on him in the top 3 given the risk, and would have a very tough time using a top 5 pick in what should be a good draft. Embiid is a great prospect, but there is a very substantial chance (hopefully less than 50%) that he is never healthy enough to reach that potential. Once you start getting out of the top 5, there is already such a high chance of either drafting a bust or just another average player, that the Embiid risk is likely worth it.
I would say the same thing (I think), regardless of where the Celtics were picking. Coincidently, the Celtics happen to have the #6 pick…..
Edit: It also matters who is left at #6 of course. I would definitely take Embiid over Vonleh or Randle. I'm more of a Gordon guy, so would have a tougher time taking Embiid over him (though I'd still likely do it). I also agree that I would make a reasonable Love trade with #6 as a part of it, even if Embiid is still available.
Its pretty simple for the Cs. If they hold the pick and Embid is still there you take him with both hands. That said, lottery picks are such a crapshoot and all NBA teams know it so it will be a shock if he falls that far.
DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:
Well it's going to depend on the specific medical info, how their team doctors interpret it, a team's risk aversion, and what players are still on the board at each pick.
So many variables that it's impossible to know what each individual team will do. I don't think I would be shocked if he fell to the Celtics, though I probably agree it's not the most likely outcome.
Dario Saric staying in Europe two more years (at least) but still eligible for the draft. Chad Ford has already tweeted that he will have him going to Boston at 17 in his updated mock draft.
http://espn.go.com/nba/draft2014/story/_/id/11122639/nba-prospect-dario-saric-agrees-principle-three-year-deal-turkish-team
http://espn.go.com/nba/draft2014/story/_/id/11122639/nba-prospect-dario-saric-agrees-principle-three-year-deal-turkish-team
moondog80 said:
Draft Embiid for a red shirt year this year, Draft Saric and keep him out 2 years.
Could be an interesting way to acquire assets and phase them in while staying bad to capitalize on future draft picks looking ahead to year 3 of the rebuild.
Mloaf71 brings up a VERY interesting angle. Without a blockbuster trade we aren't drafting at 17 in the hopes of finding a rotational player for next season.......Saric provides a Top 10-12 talent in a strong draft who figures to have a greater impact than theoretically the #17 pick in a weaker draft in a couple of years. He could be a mid-lottery pick in that draft which makes him a strong long-term value play here.BigSoxFan said:
HomeRunBaker said:
Giving him 2 years to develop playing at the top level in Europe will also be very beneficial, and increase his chances of being an impact player while still on his rookie scale contract.
This is what I was coming here to post. Taking talents who won't join your team for a couple years is a feature, not a bug. I'd rather have Saric's age 22-25 seasons than his age 20-23 seasons.Grin&MartyBarret said:
I'm not all that in love with Saric the more I read about him, but if you think the player is good, then this contract isn't a reason to pass on him.